fountainguy97

The NAM loves to amp stuff too hard in the mid-long range. It's pretty bad outside 48hrs. RGEM can do it too on occasion but is typically more reliable. Globals have definitely ticked flatter since 12z yesterday. I full expect the NAM to cave at some point. RGEM is a beauty and is right in line with most overnight globals All of the energy will be coming onshore by 00z tonight so I'll be treating 00z as the first run to take seriously for amounts and locations.

Overall the 00z models have shifted away from the larger overrunning shield and to a much more focused and thin overrunning band. In general most of them did sag southward some. 00z really trended away from the widespread TN event and to a more focused band of snow. Probably see alot of wobble back and forth with the location of the boundary and overrunning. It's a very touchy system. This one will be stressful up until go time.

Feel your pain with this one. I'll be in the same boat. 30hours of light drizzle while 30miles west it's 8" of powder. we hug the RGEM until the end! Haha still hope for us far eastern folks!

What's your Twitter handle?

The icon is rain for border counties including your area. The NAM just has no precip for us. And the RGEM also has rain for border counties. Too amp'ed. My county is even worse. Unfortunately it's a very likely outcome with every single model showing that. Still some time to move around though.

The 18z NAM is starting the party off right with a nice NW trend lol. Here we go.

Here you go. Hard to see but leaves and small debris are ripping past. This is my new record for wind! Previous was 74mph during hurricane Irene in Eastern, NC. Station recorded 83 while I was recording. https://youtu.be/2VDa4dIA5K8?si=qpz6t4Y2hsRtIXtM

Good call on the power lines lol. I had just drove down this road to get into camp creek. ill splice my vids together and put it on YouTube this evening. Back home we have trees down everywhere in Erwin. Never seen anything like this here. Wind was funneled perfectly down Rock Creek Rd and just blasted us.

Definitely gusting into hurricane range. Tough to stand. It's cold. The rain hurts lol

I have been to camp creek but not for wind event. I was going to head to the elementary school.

Wind is nearing extreme here. Trees down. Power out. I'm heading to camp creek which is gusting toward 90! Only 40min drive.

crappy run for me on gfs. That over-running pivots north which is my fear for NETN. but man it crushes the rest of the state!

kind of but no not really. The front doesnt really push far enough. the line of purple on the snow map is pretty much where the precip sets up. Sharp cutoff. for Mountains and NE TN. But this run is actually about 50 miles further SE than 6z.

Yeah I was about to say the NAM is still light compared to 06z rgem

Currently the EURO is just a massive outlier. At 500mb it's just not even close to anything else. the snow map is even more stark. Every model has a great overrunning setup for TN at hr 84. And then the euro is just nothing.

We are starting to enter what I call the "tick trend" phase. Gone are the monster shifts run-to-run. Now we should see steady slower trends. At some point we will see a "snap" run where all models converge to a uniform solution. That typically happens in the runs just before or as the energy comes onshore. That happens with this system Saturday. So look for someone to cave today/tmrw. (I think it will be the euro as it's a classic case of an "overtrend" and it will correct back. Not to mention the shift it just made toward gfs at 06.)

yeah it is often too dry. RGEM is juicy.

NAM looks fun. Very much inline with 00z gfs.

Man the gfs is just absurd for cold. 9+ days most of the state below freezing starting Sunday. Those with snow cover have 5+ nights in the single digits or 0. my wallet is thin as it is lol. Heat bills are going to be crazy.

Some of these GEFS members are going to be monsters for ETN

Still turned out pretty good for ETN. Not often you see the valley get the goods like this.

Honestly that's a good low in the Gulf for ETN. The problem is we don't go negative tilt. The whole trough just slides east instead of pivoting. If it had of gone negative tilt it would have buried the mountains. the problem is the state-wide snow has gone poof today

Meanwhile the cmc is even further inland and rain for plateau eastward lol. Not over yet but yeah trends today have been rough.

18z top 00z bottom

Oh yeah gfs took a monster shift to a whiff. Still ok for Eastern areas but writing is on the wall. Is this the classic case of models losing the storm 4-5 days out and it comes back 3-4 out? Who knows. But I'd not be expecting much for anyone at this point.