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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Probably large enough event to make an OBS thread
  2. fountainguy97
    If it catches on we will take 50/50 credit haha!
  3. fountainguy97
    Rufus!!
  4. fountainguy97
    finally, the RGEM caves and almost all eastern areas remain frozen.
  5. fountainguy97
    Speak for yourself. No mercy over here it's bullseye in my backyard or this is the largest bust of all time. seriously though the reason I'm here and not elsewhere is because no one here lets their backyard determine if a model is good or bad. Can't be said for others.
  6. fountainguy97
    Little bit more warm nose for me. I'll probably Mix for 3-6 hrs but hopefully you guys stay all snow!
  7. fountainguy97
    The RAP is just absurd. All frozen! (does anyone else find it annoying you have to screenshot pivotal on mobile??)
  8. fountainguy97
    I noticed that as well. I do find it hard to believe the RGEM scours out the cold. I go from 21 to 36 on the RGEM Monday with snow falling. Doesn't add up.
  9. fountainguy97
    Yep! RGEM pushing in more cold. One more tick at 12z and I'm happy haha hrrr and RGEM absolutely crush eastern portions while NAM nearly blanks the same locations..
  10. fountainguy97
    Yeah 12km is a minor tick better for eastern areas but still a massive difference between hrrr and NAM. Inside 24 hrs now...
  11. fountainguy97
    Still snowing on hrrr too lol it's razor thin but keeps me frozen the entire event. NAM looks good too! A tick south. Update: better early on. Nasty warm nose still later.
  12. fountainguy97
    the GEFS is super aggressive on the 5 day threat
  13. fountainguy97
    Man I feel much more optimistic for extreme eastern areas such as myself after 00z. Pretty much all high res keep temps below 32 to the border except the NAM (which jumped SE in a big way) and the RGEM. Hopefully the RGEM can get on board with more cold push by 12z!
  14. fountainguy97
    I agree. Let's get that cold push all the way to the border and I'll be happy
  15. fountainguy97
    FWIW the WRF family of models and the fv3, and the RAP, are like the hrrr with the cold push all the way to the state line
  16. fountainguy97
    RGEM still mixing for the east but technically every so slightly more cold push. Tiny tiny shift lol
  17. fountainguy97
    Vertical velocity at the 700mb will show you the clearest picture of the best dynamics and lift (which is always the right entrance region) The nam has been trending massively toward other models
  18. fountainguy97
    Nam cut the distance in half toward the other models. As a result temp profile will be better for most. Still not all the way but a big jump.
  19. fountainguy97
    Much better cold push so far!1
  20. fountainguy97
    For those on the Eastern side worried abt temps... the 00z hrrr and 18z RGEM are very similar as far as precip alignment and placement. But look at that cold push on the hrrr. Much much better. Even keeps my lonesome self below 32. The rgem seems to just be amping hard and eroding that boundary. But the hrrr is proof there is a solution that delivers even for extreme ETN.
  21. fountainguy97
    Not at all. Greene county looks good. At worst a couple hours of freezing drizzle. if anyone should stick a fork in it it's me haha. This is the one time me being tucked in the mountains in Unicoi county is a bad thing. Even then I'll see some frozen which is a win. You guys further east in the valley haven't had a setup this good since I moved here which has been 4 winters. Reel it in!!
  22. fountainguy97
  23. fountainguy97
    going to be quite a bit more zr this run.
  24. fountainguy97
    Big warm air push into ETN end of hrrr. Bring back the low teens and snow haha
  25. fountainguy97
    Mountain counties are warm nosed. Rain/freezing rain. On rgem atleast. It's not a qpf problem or anything. It's temps. In fact, the rgem warm noses a larger portion of ETN this 12z all the way through Johnson city.
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