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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Phew those Carolina boys are flirting with a big event if that NE energy can phase in a few hours faster. euro extended looks fabulous. I'd almost bet on it at this point. We are repeating the December/january pattern but MJO should be better I believe. Just like the January event models were hinting at this pattern change earlier in February and have pushed it back a couple weeks. Classic occurrence for a legit change in the weather for the US as a whole. Look at the book-end storms of this upcoming pattern for potential big hitters into mid-late February.
  2. fountainguy97
    Definitely a feast or famine setup. The ceiling is astronomically high though!
  3. fountainguy97
    Not a bad look.
  4. fountainguy97
    A very cool setup this weekend in regards to backside NW precip. Temps are marginal which stinks but the hrrr and NAM both rotate the decaying low pressure into our region as the coastal takes over. the hrrr is super aggressive with that decaying low spinning over us. Mountains that are cold enough are going to rack up some nice totals I suspect.
  5. fountainguy97
    13.8 here with steady light snow falling. Moderate at times. The DGZ is only a few hundred feet above us at this point so radar is useless in determining precipitation. Pretty amazing event! Totals not particularly heavy but a pretty awesome end to the wintry week. blowing snow really reduces visibility at times here.
  6. fountainguy97
    Temp 30.7 and falling. Got a glaze and coating of sleet/snow overnight. NW regime kicking into high gear now. Snow and roads are covered instantly.
  7. fountainguy97
    Huh? That is so conservative for snow. They cut my totals in half.. Only 1-2" for mby with 20+ hrs of NW flow on the way? Feel pretty confident I'm good for 3-4 with this setup. We will see. 33.8 here DP 30.6. This is the coldest 33 I've ever felt I think haha.
  8. fountainguy97
    Down to 36.5 from 37.5. Clouds moving in saving our melting snow. I'm interested in the cold push tonight. RGEM is significantly colder for NETN (especially my locale) than hrrr at 10pm. Considering hrrr was horrendous with temps earlier this week I'll go with the colder.
  9. fountainguy97
    I'm digging this weekend for my backyard. Single digits and NW powder. Sounds like a good time!
  10. fountainguy97
    Wow. Every single school system in the entire STATE is closed tomorrow.
  11. fountainguy97
    Unlike the last event with the DGZ 11,000ft up the DGZ may actually be just a few hundred off the surface. Absurd NW soundings on the gfs. I can get behind this one
  12. fountainguy97
    18 and high ratio snow here. Nice finale to the event! Roads covered again
  13. fountainguy97
    Timelapse of the wild ptypes rates from this storm. Overall a pretty interesting event!
  14. fountainguy97
    Not to derail the event but you guys with snow may just get the rare snow on snow event this Thursday evening. (It's still snowing in Eastern TN at this point) add to this the temps we are about to experience. Quite the winter week.
  15. fountainguy97
    I'm getting concerned about the icing potential tonight. I'm at 31.8 with rain/snow and fog rolling in... hrrr has patchy precip until 5am.. thats a lot of ice building. Even worse when it comes in waves and gets the chance to hard freeze
  16. fountainguy97
    I think we have a combo of things causing the mixing. That's why it's hard to pinpoint. For my local. I'm at 2000ft. The sounding below is hrrr initialization which is off at the surface. I'm currently at 32.0. I highly doubt I'm having warm nose melting. I think rates slack and I lose moisture in the DGZ (yellow portion of the red line) as you can see with the green and red separation. also. The DGZ is super high between 550-650mb or roughly 11,000-15,000. That's HIGH. Most of the moisture is well below that. Typically it's much much lower. I think that's the smoking gun for the issues with Ptype today. Unusually high DGZ. so I think that's likely going to cause problems tonight during this final portion of the storm. outside my local in the valley I think it's a combo of the extra elevation of warmth and this that's causing issues.
  17. fountainguy97
    Now poof... rain. 32.0. I think this is a DGZ moisture issue.
  18. fountainguy97
    Our main show is exiting over the next couple of hours. Then we have several several hours of lighter and spotty precip behind. What Ptype will it be? No one knows lol
  19. fountainguy97
    Clearly some form of warm nose has remained anchored over the mid-valley. Notice how that bright banding (blue which indicates melting aloft) hits a wall and changes to white across NE TN. Pretty neat to watch unfold.
  20. fountainguy97
    How much do you have? Such a strange system. I'm 99% sure this is to blame on timing. If this came through any other time really it's all snow. I mixed with rain for a couple hours from 3-4:45 but even then never went full rain. And I was the one the high-res had no snow for.
  21. fountainguy97
    wow it's snowing HARD. 32.2. Quarter sized flakes.
  22. fountainguy97
    Agreed. It's like having two discussions at once. Nowcasting reports and then discussion on last second models for the areas it hasn't begun yet.
  23. fountainguy97
    Still 32.5 90% slushy snow some rain now. 400ft below me it's almost all rain. Will be interesting to see how the evening goes. If we can get back down below 32 could add an inch onto the slushy inch I've got.
  24. fountainguy97
    3-4pm will be the height of daytime heating. If we stay frozen through that good chance we remain for duration. 32.7 hanging on to the snow!
  25. fountainguy97
    Roads white. Even interstates. Half dollars falling! 32.5
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