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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Meanwhile the cmc is even further inland and rain for plateau eastward lol. Not over yet but yeah trends today have been rough.
  2. fountainguy97
    18z top 00z bottom
  3. fountainguy97
    Oh yeah gfs took a monster shift to a whiff. Still ok for Eastern areas but writing is on the wall. Is this the classic case of models losing the storm 4-5 days out and it comes back 3-4 out? Who knows. But I'd not be expecting much for anyone at this point.
  4. fountainguy97
    Yeah this is suppressed... almost no initial moisture.
  5. fountainguy97
    Yeah hr 84 initial precip is flatter and much weaker and SE. this seems to be following the trend of a weaker OTS system.
  6. fountainguy97
    Not fully sure but I believe it is causing a slightly flatter initial wave.
  7. fountainguy97
    Hr 54 on gfs that little pacific vort max keeps slowing down each run.
  8. fountainguy97
    Yeah icon ends a little more positive tilt but pretty much same snowfall as 18z. Actually better for my backyard
  9. fountainguy97
    AI is the new DGEX
  10. fountainguy97
    IMO that's an ok run. Little bit of an overtrend and then we tick back in the mid-range. Happens often.
  11. fountainguy97
    Hr 66 not much change with the ribbon of vort energy but the west coast vort max has trended much further east this run.
  12. fountainguy97
    Looking at the 12z suite at hr 84 it's clear the cmc and icon are holding/digging the trailing piece significantly more than the rest. I'd say they are the outlier right now idk if that's a bias but all others are really pretty close.
  13. fountainguy97
    Yeah this is always the "no man's land" of winter storms. We have a somewhat consistent storm scenario on all OPs now. But there is this 2 days of "Who knows where this goes" before we really begin to lock in. Next 2-3 days will be long ones haha
  14. fountainguy97
    Yep much improved. All I want to see is 12z euro. Great trends toward a pretty consistent storm setup. Now that we are slowly coming inside 5 days we will have to watch for those smaller "tick" trends.
  15. fountainguy97
    Gefs really coming on board.
  16. fountainguy97
    That would do it lol. This will be a breath of fresh air considering ground will be fully frozen at the start. We won't lose a single flake to melt assuming CMC is over doing it. Not to mention we won't break 32 for an entire 7 days. Even 2-3" of snow will stick around for days
  17. fountainguy97
    What's absurd is the entire state is pretty much below 32 starting this Sunday and going through the next Sunday. And most of that is WAY below 32
  18. fountainguy97
    I feel like the gfs was about the best case. Seems any more amped it'll be easy to have mixing issues. I don't see a way to get a ton more moisture out of this.
  19. fountainguy97
    This is a super long event. Snow breaking out with the Arctic front by hr 90 on gfs but trailing piece doesn't pull away until hour 144
  20. fountainguy97
    Wow that was a major East coast Storm there. 12z will be interesting! Need it to turn that corner even faster to get precip back our way but that's a great look 5-6 days out. i feel like we have been saying 6 days out for 4 days now lol.
  21. fountainguy97
    GFS trending toward EURO. All I care about right now is what the euro does. If we can just increase QPF even .15-.2 across the region you're talking about widespread 7-8" the ceiling is so high with this one. GFS is snow in the single digits. Ratios will be upwards of 20:1
  22. fountainguy97
    Moved to storm thread.
  23. fountainguy97
    Models have definitely come together for an overall idea. Trends will still happen from here. Euro still the best for snow which makes you pretty confident. Remember we are tracking .1's of qpf 5-6 days out. The euro has the best coastal development yet but it still doesn't throw much qpf back across ETN. It doesn't really consolidate the energy but just strings it out.
  24. fountainguy97
    I'm just angry right now lol. Nico has a MUCH higher ceiling than Milton ever did. We should be competing at a high level again next season. 12 team playoff actually makes post season interesting.
  25. fountainguy97
    Truthfully I'd rather TN just be irrelevant. Both in football and basketball losing every game that matters. SMH let's just suck again to not waste my time.
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