fountainguy97
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Everything posted by fountainguy97
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Woah... I missed this at 18z. I honestly can't find a meaningful difference between euro and others...
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Yes I think the issue isn't the temperature more than it's just the deform band has moved west. If you look at simulated radars there is a massive dry slot Sunday. Rates can never overcome because there simply are no good rates.
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1000 mile shift south still wasn't enough lol.
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Tough pill to swallow. It never sat right with me that it was just so different than the rest and didn't budge. The whole cmc family never moved. should have been the red flag.
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RGEM is king.
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At 06z I can no longer ignore the warm solutions. CMC, ICON, RGEM, GFS are showing very little snow west of the apps. Looking bleak today. The NAM is also looking worse too although it jumped NW.
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Anyone have 18z euro maps?
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I think NAM has a dry slot over NE TN. It's pretty far west. 18z has come out pretty bland. Icon and NAM and RGEM all bleh. What's with 18z runs? Yesterday was rough too. what do you guys make of the RGEM being all rain? Its track is pretty far west too. But even then it's all rain besides 3500+
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12z euro is amazing for Eastern areas. Plenty of cooling. Decent timing. This confirms we more or less have a general agreement on track. Still room for a 25-50mile shift before this is over -
Hr 66 euro nearly 50miles SE of 00z run and weaker. hr 72: precip shield 50 miles east of 00z we now have a pretty tight consensus edit: euro crushes north of I-40 and east of I-81
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Euro has stopped moving west it appears. This run is a tiny tick back east. hr 54: all models nearly identical besides gfs which is 50miles faster (east) than everyone else.
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I've seen these 3 day trends stop and then reverse abt 25% up to game time. Who knows with this setup. The good news is the euro is still the extreme west guidance. Will be interesting to see it's 12z run.
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Yeah it's mid-day now.. this earlier cutoff has slowed us down to peak daytime heating.
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Temps are becoming a serious issue across models. RGEM is abysmal. Even NAM is absolutely borderline for a lot of people. We are losing the cold pretty quickly.
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Brutal hole for the valley. This track is going to cause a lot of temp issues for valley areas. And with the heaviest rates to the west.
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We have a 100mile difference between Euro and gfs today. Euro is NW and much more snow further into TN. The resolving of this will determine where the heaviest snow sets up this weekend.
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Wow I go to sleep for 2 hours and the whole thing unravels... Edit 6am: I'm not surprised that we have more uncertainty at this stage and not less. 06 gfs, icon, NAM are all good hits for the mountains but cmc and RGEM are warm. The gfs is absurd. 9" kuchera in 6 hrs for alot of places.This one is far from over.
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I wouldn't be surpsised for the spread to breiefly widen. Seems like that happens alot with bigger events. as long as we are in the middle of the cone we are good. Atleast according to @Carvers Gap
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It's strange but in a way trending toward others. another tick or two west and it'll start bringing it north pretty quickly. That being said the 18z GEFS is a complete miss for our area too. It sure is stubborn. Still by far the outlier.
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We need to cash this ASAP. Euro is actually the lowest model in regards to QPF. Good to see. All 12z models besides gfs are similar evolution. Potential for a mid-sized winter event for sure. Still doubtful on alot of accumulations but looks good. Probably thread worthy!
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Yeah a miss to the east BUT it did come west abt 25miles. Moisture just still doesn't make it over. 12z CMC coming in identical to NAM. GFS continues to be the outlier.
