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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Paying for our mild summer with an endless summer. After the brief relief thanks to this tropical system gfs goes torch again. Of course it's wildly too hot normally.
  2. fountainguy97
    Yeah GFS brings that tropical storm through which would certainly help us out. It's on the extreme western edge of guidance though so not very likely at the moment.
  3. fountainguy97
    Man the gfs really wants to keep the heat around for another 10-14 days. I'm not surprised but I was hoping to see some fall mornings.
  4. fountainguy97
    Yeah these decadal sequences are tough to really apply just because of the sheer length of time between pattern changes. The current massive -PDO has surely been stubborn and may not flip at all. AMO is such a long pattern sequence it's tough to really get a grasp on. I haven't been alive in a -AMO regime. And I think it's not irrelevant to consider in this climate IF we will get a -AMO signal in the near future. Or maybe decades. I don't think we struggle with precip this winter. I'm more worried about too much of a good thing with the El Niño. Especially if we don't transition to more of a 3.4 focused Nino. We may blow right through any blocking we manage to get. there has been some cooling going on in the PDO region. Maybe we see it transport across the Pacific this fall.
  5. fountainguy97
    78/62 here today. Absolutely perfect. Enjoying it before this heat wave of death hits.
  6. fountainguy97
    Seeing my friends back in Eastern NC hit 90 at 9am sure has me thankful for the mountains today.
  7. fountainguy97
    With a descending QBO and solar activity rising toward peak the chances of blocking and a disrupted PV are increased. along with the active southern jet with the El Niño I'll take those chances any day. The only fly in the ointment is we need the El Niño to shift toward a more basin wide event vs eastern based. Models are predicting that so let's hope they are correct. Definitely some good signs heading into fall!
  8. fountainguy97
    4.52" here on the day. Easily the highest 24hr total here going back to July 2019 on my records. 5 hrs after rain we still have creeks flooding. I've never really seen the ditch along my property carry much water but it sounds like a river tonight.
  9. fountainguy97
    Over 2" already today. Easily heading to the largest single day total I've had here in the last 4 years.
  10. fountainguy97
    Man going to be an unusual day tomorrow for the middle of summer. Won't feel like it tomorrow. PWATs approaching 2". Probably going to be some flooding in the mountains of TN and NC if the 2-3+ inches materialize. The firehouse is already lined up.
  11. fountainguy97
    Peaked at 89.1 so far today. Have yet to hit 90 this year but I think we will do it this week. I won't be surprised if this week is the "peak" of our summers heat. Can't complain at all about the year we have had so far. A welcome relief compared to the last few Niña springs and summers. The gears of fall are slowly beginning to turn up north. August will be hot but my favorite time of year is just around the corner! This time of year is when I always start rummaging through old winter event threads and wishing for colder days.
  12. fountainguy97
    Checking in. It's hot. Is it December yet?
  13. fountainguy97
    Well with winter behind us here is my summary. 4 events behind normal. 11" behind average of the last 4 winters. (2019-2023 average)
  14. fountainguy97
    Honestly I don't think many anyone East of I-85 have much hope. Even the runs that favor them it's all a cold rain. Your'e going to want to have atleast a bit of elevation for this one. I'm indifferent abt it. It's one of the best looks of the winter for snow for the SE. But it's March and not early March. Temps will be a problem if we even get the precip. This setup in January would be mouthwatering.
  15. fountainguy97
    Models have flattened out the wave associated with next weeks storm. Probably right where we want it at this range. It would be fitting for the last threat to be suppressed though lol
  16. fountainguy97
    Significant uptick in GEFS members with this system.. CMC is close. This one is getting interesting. Sitting on the NW edge of this is exactly where we want to be.
  17. fountainguy97
    This is a beautiful setup for the spine of the Apps. Big dog potential. Probably one of the best looks of the winter inside 180. Would like to see some more ensemble support though at this range.
  18. fountainguy97
    To be fair to the GFS the EURO is very similar at 00z. It just isnt as dynamic of a system so the cold isn't there. This weekend is 100% cold chasing moisture with no other model support. Early next week could be a legit threat but support is low right now which is actually how we want it at this range. I'd rather be missed to the south at this stage. That is something we haven't been able to say any this year.
  19. fountainguy97
    I am highly skeptical of this weekend and next week. Gfs has almost no support and we know how that has gone this winter.
  20. fountainguy97
    Wind shear is necessary for long lived storms because it tilts the updrafts and downdrafts away from each other. Allowing them to be independent. Without shear the updraft and downdraft overlap and smother each other. Too much shear (wind) can just rip them apart from each other. Basically decapitating any storm. here is a brief NWS article about it. https://www.weather.gov/ilx/swop-springtopics The hrrr doesn't have any signs of issues with shear for the main line today. Doesn't mean there won't be limiting factors though.
  21. fountainguy97
    Definitely looking like a "legit" severe weather event for TN this Friday. The usual low cape, high shear event as typical for early season. But with temps in the 70s and DPs in the 60s we should get some decent afternoon development.
  22. fountainguy97
    I have a feeling we are going to have a massive kill-off of budding plants sometime soon... no way we don't have a solid cold shot before April.
  23. fountainguy97
    80.6/53 today. An absolutely perfect afternoon.
  24. fountainguy97
    34.7 and coming down good! Small flakes but can tell it's ramping up. Too bad this didn't happen at lunch. I've had .7 inches of rain since then.
  25. fountainguy97
    35.8 with flakes mixing in. Not a shutout atleast lol. to continue the conversation... winter has been extremely low here. I'm over 8" below normal and will likely end up a foot or more below normal. I was talking to a friend who lives back in Eastern NC and he says it's the worst winter he was ever tracked. Not a single storm to track all winter. Not even a hint of a threat. Even in shutouts we typical have atleast a potential system or two outside the mountains. This year? Not a single one besides this one. rough.
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