fountainguy97
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Everything posted by fountainguy97
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I see a lot of left leaning members here. And several extreme right. Won't be surprised to see this tuck in right along the NC coast.
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I'm seeing more consolidated members on 12 GEFS out to hr 102. Only a hand full of strung out solutions now. EDIT: Hr 108 the PNA continues to pump. Leading to a steeper trough. Should have more amped memebrs this time. EDIT 2: East TN is going to love this run of GEFS and its trend.
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06z gfs honestly looks great for the East Coast. Someone is going to get buried this weekend. Gfs is ticking for a quicker phase. A couple more ticks and it gets fun for a lot of the South. With little blocking any amping is going to pull this north. E TN is on storm watch for this weekend. notice a lot of GOM members now.
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Here it is.
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I am pretty sure the Bulls Gap returns were not convection but an animal. I've noticed the classic "ring" around this time in that exact area typical of insects/birds. (Another benefit of tier 2 RadarScope. Archive and my own custom color tables) The CC also indicates extreme differences in size of objects. Although this forum isn't letting me upload it.
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I won't be shocked to continue to see light precip over Eastern TN through the day. Especially with this look in the mid levels. As the storm progresses we may actually get an hour or two of semi-decent returns over the eastern counties bordering NC as the storm begins to crank. This was so close to a much larger event if that shortwave would tilt negative.
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Another dusting tonight. Brings my year up to 11.6". Exactly tying my snow through January of last winter so far. My Erwin TN winter archive is now up to 3 winters! data is sparse over here so I have to do it myself. Lol
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12z suite so far confirming my suspicion that this is an "east of mountains" event. I dont think these setups really push west of the mountains much at all unless we get some real phasing. Expect EURO to hop in line we the rest at 12z. Its 6z was already heading that way! Being from Central and Eastern NC I know they need a score!
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for sure. Here was our last event 84hrs out on GFS. the precip shield and low ended up abt 100 miles south from this run. 100miles NW certainly puts the valley in the game if it happens.
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Feel like this is a Carolina special. We may get enough ticks to get E TN in some light snow but I think we are locking in here. I do think it'll be easier to get more phasing than less. So NW ticks probably will be more likely to happen than suppression. IF any trends occur. This one just feels like a Carolina Crusher
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Still stacking up quickly here. Pleasantly surprised. Over 5" now
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24 and visibility below a quarter mile.
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Wow rates are very heavy right now. If only this would last all night haha
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Yep sure enough abt 15min after this post we flipped to a surprisingly heavy rain and a rainbow haha. Strange day. Winter in the morning. 40 and rain now. And a NW event expected this evening.
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35 with full sun and biscuits falling. Probably .75-1" an hour rates blowing over the upslope mountains. Stunning.
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Absolutely ripping outside with 20+ mph Winds. If these hevier returns can get over the mountains this may get pretty intense in a minute.
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Mix of sleet and snow the last 2 hours. Slush/icy half inch on roads. We will slowly warm up this afternoon but the real shot of snow happens late this afternoon and overnight with the back side and NW flow. IMO this front side has over performed for my area
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30/28. Flake size increasing and mostly snow now. Started as a mix with sleet I assume now the column is saturated. All this is gravy in my book this morning. roads covering instantly
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29.5 and a surprising costing across the deck this morning. HRRR is still the only model giving me any amount of snow with this onset precip. It may score a massive W at this point.
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Hrrr really starting to pull meaningful precip into the valley tmrw morning. Tick tick tick continues.
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HRRR still ticking flatter (positive tilt) each run. Likely a result of the ULL diving further South. the more ticks we get like this the better it will get for Eastern areas. I don't buy the HRRR mixing issues right now. It is trending colder by the hour. There will be mixing but I don't think it will be quite as widespread as hrrr shows
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@Holston_River_Rambler check this out. Notice How the hrrr has steadily ticked more positively tilted over the day. Wonder if this is in relation to the 500mb vort. This could be what is helping easterne areas and getting the deform band across the valley. It's still ticking more vertical each run. I would assume the less tilted this becomes the further east that deform band ends up.
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Definitely seems to still be SSE vs SE. this is when the HRRR comes in handy with the hourly runs. In a game of inches an extra hour of digging is miles and miles of differences.
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Phew low 20s and that kicker energy bringing the goods. Won't be surprised to see hrrr tick stronger with NW flow post-system. We are still extreme long range for it.
