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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    12z has been an interesting suite for our weekend storm. Chances are still zero but there has been a shift to more of a slider solution with a late coastal reformation. ICON and CMC both are more of a slider with a coastal reformation too far out to sea. BUT there has been an increase in GEFS members that also show this but have the coastal close enough for some enhancement. 7 memebrs now have the second enhancement close enough to our area to prolong our event... But GFS remained the same with the more powerful northern dominant storm. This comes down to which lobe of energy can take over. Some of these gefs members are halfway decent for East TN. I don't think this is a big event for us but this coastal reform is the path for a more meaningful event. The CMC is a weird in between but look how undefined that Low pressure is....
  2. fountainguy97
    For what it's worth the EURO overnight did return to the bowling ball solution which pulled the low further south. Didn't change snowfall much but that is a step in the right direction.
  3. fountainguy97
    5month old keeping us up tonight. 06gfs is cutting even more. We just can't get a southern track to save our lives this year. Safe to say 3rd year Nina's are not the move for snow.
  4. fountainguy97
    wow to @Carvers Gap point about a crawling storm the 12z GEFS has significantly increased that solution. some bombs on it If EURO and EPS also support this, then it is safe to say we at least have a pretty unanimous storm setup with the bowling ball. Historically these setups have dumped some of the largest totals across the SE. A long way to go but we take our chances with this. Temps are a concern right now.
  5. fountainguy97
    12z GFS and CMC both with similar evolutions. Very marginal NWFS.
  6. fountainguy97
    Have to like the signal we have here in the 7-10day range. Having the euro/EPS on our side is something we didn't have last time. Energy is coming onshore in 120hrs. This isn't really complete fantasy land. Having EPS/GEFS signal here is pretty legit.
  7. fountainguy97
    Weather.us has a cool EURO ERA5 archive back to 1950. I have also found the snowfall records here to be absolutely pitiful. This is snow depth so likely on the low side of what actually fell.
  8. fountainguy97
    MRX office right now.
  9. fountainguy97
    Congrats to all! Unfortunately a shutout here. Mountains robbing moisture for me today.
  10. fountainguy97
    I have never seen so much salt on roads ever. They have it a quarter inch thick over here lol. All the cars are white from salt.
  11. fountainguy97
    Air is extremely dry but cloud deck has slowly started to descend here. Hoping for another .5 before we warm up!
  12. fountainguy97
    Went to bed when radar was thinning out. Woke up 2 hrs after returns faded away and it's still coming down good. 12 degrees.
  13. fountainguy97
    This "historically" boring cold front finally has made it here. Dropping a degree every 5 min as about any front does
  14. fountainguy97
    This storm was always going to be tough to get anything good out of. Stinks we are reduced to flake watching but it is what it is. cold will still be epic!
  15. fountainguy97
    This thing is racing. Backside is moving at 60mph.
  16. fountainguy97
    there seems to be more precip ahead of Front than expected. Back side doesn't look bad but it's not super strong either. Downsloping going to annihilate this I'm afraid.
  17. fountainguy97
    Precip depiction is off. Real transition is back here. But it won't be long either way.
  18. fountainguy97
    Hrrr is quietly showing some NW flow tomorrow afternoon.
  19. fountainguy97
    Any good traffic cams out there along I-40? Starting to impact that area now
  20. fountainguy97
    There is a lot of precip out in front of this thing. More than I thought there would be
  21. fountainguy97
    HRRR giveth. HRRR taketh away.
  22. fountainguy97
    I'll be interested to see the transition tonight. Do we go straight rain to snow? Or an inbetween? And as pointed out a big question still remains in regards to our moisture. The DGZ will be on the ground. So we could end up with basically freezing mist for hours after.
  23. fountainguy97
    Hard not to get excited for my area. Should be brief blizzard-like conditions tonight!
  24. fountainguy97
    this is primarily for upslope regions. Rations will be 25:1 a couple hours after frontal passage. That means .04 qpf is an inch of snow. Tiny qpf changes matter a lot here. More than normal. brief blizzard conditions will be possible across most of the area tonight. This is going to be fun!
  25. fountainguy97
    Our complaining worked because hrrr is again back to beefing up totals.
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