fountainguy97
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Everything posted by fountainguy97
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I'm still seeing some say they favor ensembles but.... overnight the ensembles have come toward the OPs in a big way. We are inside 5 days and touching 4. The OPs are more relevant now than ensembles imo. edit: it's also super obvious as I believe Webb mentioned on Twitter that the GFS OP has higher resolution than its ensembles. It led the ensembles into this NW trend.
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Every storm is different but we do often see models "overtrend" in this 4-6 day period and then tick back in the last few days. that's how a lot of NW trends happen. Models dig too much and then tick backwards. This could be a reverse case. Or it could keep going NW haha i have to say the GFS has steadily moved NW over the last EIGHT runs. That is one of the longest and most consistent trends I've ever seen from any storm. 8 ticks in a row. It has to stop somewhere right?
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GEFS mean going to be similar to 12z. GFS on the extreme northern end of its ensemble set. It's pretty safe to not trust that 18z run based on GEFS. edit: in fact 18z mean js better for TN
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As per usual with a large southern storm every option is on the table and will be for at least another 48hrs. GEFS and eps both have anything from a clipper style to a suppressed non-event to a classic Miller A. Until we see ensembles narrow down to a couple of solutions I'll be sitting back. The good news is I almost always go by the "middle road" solution. And that middle scenario would mean a significant storm for portions of the South! The gfs has a sneaky NW flow event here in a few days.
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It is had to beat. Today just feels like a core winter day in the mountains. How it's supposed to feel when living here. Even though it's not a huge storm I love days like this. Roads covering just by flurries. The big NW event last year I ended up with 7" over two days. It's a different type of event. Slower paced than a regular system. But just as enjoyable. Other than scraping a steep driveway multiple times a day
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Have to say that snow in the teens is quite annoying. Every road now has a nice coating of snow again.
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Got a half inch of graupel and snow on top. Driveway frozen solid down to 18. Heaviest snow of the storm right now!
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34.7 and light snow. These back side bands look pretty good!
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Not a flake yet temp FINALLY falling. Maybe I'll get a few minutes of flakes with these last bands.
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White is above the value of 1 and I think can be considered untrustworthy. Basically an error. Uniform sized precip like all rain or all snow will be right around the value of 1. Any reduction in the value is a sign of different sized and shaped objects in the sky. Which is why we see the mixing line so well today. Also useful tracking tornadoes. Debris will show up as a very low value.
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Honestly I never use the precipitation depiction. Correlation coefficient is always the best for discerning Ptypes
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You should go back to snow after a while. Hrrr pulls the line to the east over the next few hours!
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Our numbers grow every minute
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Probably right. Low track makes it irrelevant. Needed it to slide 30-50Miles further south.
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As soon as heavy clouds rolled in I stopped at 37. Slowly climbing. Afraid it was 2 hrs too late.
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I wouldn't bet against the HRRR at this point. watch it's trends for the Eastern Valley. It did jump some in accumulations this last run for those areas. I think Eastern areas want as much backside snow as possible.
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I think it's also the lack of clouds across eastern areas this morning. Heavy clouds will move in at the worst time after the sun has already pumped the valley into the 40s. Earlier runs that had less of a warm look never got eastern areas out of the mid/upper 30s. LP is also north. Surging warmth up the west side of the apps. Just not going to work. I've seen this rodeo before. A lot in Eastern NC with clouds rolling in at terrible times lol.
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Here comes the sun doo doo doo doo.... haha looks fantastic across the Plateau! Cash in guys!
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Fv3 trending exactly in line with the GFS. Nice uptick across the entire state really. edit: 12km NAM almost the exact same uptick in qpf.
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For what it's worth I'm already 32 here in Erwin. Wasn't supposed to hit 32 until 3-4am. May not mean a thing though.
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you are sitting pretty my friend. A daytime snow on top of that!
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18z HRRR even warmer for East TN. More snow for the Plateau though!
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I know. Temps in extreme Eastern TN get into the 40s as the storm is moving in. Not sure if the low is forcing warm air up into the area or what. But it does seem strange.
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Morristown mentioned this in their disco but the air in front of this is extremely dry in the low levels. We will have to moisten our column from the top down this time. This does help with surface temps east of the Plateau though. Hopefully it doesn't soak up all the precip.
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models are not being kind to the mountains. Everything dries up. Hopefully you guys further west score! I'm likely out of this one besides an inch or two.
