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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    00z models dropping 6+ for my area. Do I bite? Been burned a couple times this year already lol
  2. fountainguy97
    Going to be a slow dance but you can see it slowly coming together. We will get that upper level energy diving and consolidating tmrw which will pivot and rotate that moisture through TN. Great tap from the Great Lakes. This certainly looks like it can produce the totals we are seeing on models.
  3. fountainguy97
    Take that to the bank.
  4. fountainguy97
    In layman’s terms it’s pretty much explained in its title. “NorthWest Snow” low level winds from the northwest pass up and over the mountains. Those NW facing slopes get enhanced lift during these times and that’s why they can get a ton of snow. Wind from the northwest hits the mountains and is forced up. Creating lift and snow along those areas. It can be feast or famine as the NW slopes get dumped on but slopes not facing the exact perfect way get much less snow. here are a couple links. One has pictures which I like. The other is pretty In depth. But a good read! Google is my best friend for terms I don’t know lol. https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/NWFS_discussion_group/Additional Links/Northwest Flow Snow_Dec05.pdf http://appstate.edu/~perrylb/Research/Publications/Misc/Perry_2006_Diss.pdf
  5. fountainguy97
    It’s a very cool depiction of those up-slope enhancements. The first thing I noticed was just how hard that down-slope side actually is in Western NC. not sure how strong 10+ (bars per second?) is but considering the velocity up by our main low pressure is abt the same I’d say that must be some pretty strong lift.
  6. fountainguy97
    Just curious. What are some of the biggest NWFS events in this areas history? Was the hurricane sandy snowfall considered NWFS?
  7. fountainguy97
    I would say the same thing. Will probably take a complete model consensus tonight to get them to sway. Past couple of events have struggled to live up to expectations across most of TN.
  8. fountainguy97
    Insane haha the amount of energy aloft is very high. I’ve only been here for two winters but this is by far the most vigorous NW flow I’ve seen predicted. the DGZ zone (-10 to -17) starts at 850mb and there is ample moisture and upslope to produce a very significant event. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 18+ on our best NW peaks.
  9. fountainguy97
    Hrrr bringing the hammer down. Abt 30hrs of NW flow. zoom in on the mountains. Highest number I found was 32”. Overdone I’m sure.
  10. fountainguy97
    Hrrr and NAM are both pretty close together this time. It’s still snowing past the end of the hrrr as well.
  11. fountainguy97
    This is legit. Some of the best rates I’ve seen this year. Big nickels. Ground turning white fast.
  12. fountainguy97
    Snow. 40.3. Warm layer must be RAZOR thin. update. Saturated now and pouring flakes. Beautiful nickels.
  13. fountainguy97
    Diving down to 40.6 already. Can see it pounding away up in Flag Pond. Waiting our turn down here. radar looks great if I can manage all snow
  14. fountainguy97
    When the 06z 12km NAM is dropping a foot in the great smoky mountains its going to be legit. models are beefing up this overunning band this afternoon. 3km is dropping a quick inch across NE TN. We have also beaten low temps here by miles the past 2 nights.
  15. fountainguy97
    Looks like a pretty serious NW flow event to start next week. Those windward slopes will get slammed. And flurries across most of the state.
  16. fountainguy97
    Could be worse. Honestly not bad considering I hit 60 yesterday afternoon. 29 now. Going to be a cold day today.
  17. fountainguy97
    .15 per hr rates right now. 45.4 and rain.
  18. fountainguy97
    52.7 light rain
  19. fountainguy97
    just soared to 60.1!
  20. fountainguy97
    Going to be close but temps are flaming hot at the surface and all 12z models are backing off. Most of the heavy precip is moving out before temps can get cold enough. Just one of those events. This stronger low is going to deliver the goods to our friends over in NC though. We will catch the next one
  21. fountainguy97
    So for the Eastern areas and actually most of TN today I don't think its temp related. Maybe somewhat but not much. All 12z models so far change us around the same time. Actually all of them at the exact same between 8-9pm (for my area) same for 06z gfs. The difference is qpf. Here is the precip that falls after the changeover (more or less since we only have 3 hr increments) Pretty easy to see why hrrr is so snowless. Its not temps. It's inline with others now. Its the qpf. The problem is this doesn't make me feel better since the HRRR was the first to steadily show almost no qpf for my area with this last event that busted.
  22. fountainguy97
    Yeah this one may be a lost cause. Temps in the 50s just a couple hrs before it’s supposed to snow never sounds fun. Sounds like cold chasing moisture to me.
  23. fountainguy97
    Right on cue after models keep us reeled in. Hrrr backing off BIG time across middle and Eastern TN. Trending warmer by the hour.
  24. fountainguy97
    Lol
  25. fountainguy97
    Yeah i think only Eastern mountain areas will be in the ball game for this one and even they may see a pretty minor event. Just not much cold to work with west of the Appalachians as is common in this setup. Hopefully some other guys to our east can cash in.
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