fountainguy97
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Everything posted by fountainguy97
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Fv3 trending exactly in line with the GFS. Nice uptick across the entire state really. edit: 12km NAM almost the exact same uptick in qpf.
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For what it's worth I'm already 32 here in Erwin. Wasn't supposed to hit 32 until 3-4am. May not mean a thing though.
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you are sitting pretty my friend. A daytime snow on top of that!
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18z HRRR even warmer for East TN. More snow for the Plateau though!
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I know. Temps in extreme Eastern TN get into the 40s as the storm is moving in. Not sure if the low is forcing warm air up into the area or what. But it does seem strange.
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Morristown mentioned this in their disco but the air in front of this is extremely dry in the low levels. We will have to moisten our column from the top down this time. This does help with surface temps east of the Plateau though. Hopefully it doesn't soak up all the precip.
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models are not being kind to the mountains. Everything dries up. Hopefully you guys further west score! I'm likely out of this one besides an inch or two.
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Yep. These systems with a weak Low always seem to be sneaky. We are only dealing with tenths of inches so asking a global model to hit it on the head even 3 days out is asking too much. Which is why @Carvers Gap hit it on the head a couple posts up about smoothing the edges out. Add .1-.2 inches across an area with 10-15:1 ratios and that's a significant uptick in snowfall.
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Is it possible those intense cells are hindering the moisture transport into the rest of the precip shield? Similar to what happens when a Miller A gets strangled dry by a line of intense storms along the gulf. (I remember a few heartbreakers that fizzled for Eastern NC because of this) That could be the reason behind the euros pretty weak QPF besides the swath of .5+
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Definitely one of those storms where the top end is likely 6". Any more amped for more moisture and this thing misses us all to the north. Models really have locked on to a pretty decent track for a lot of TN. But I'm wary of the NW trend over the next day. Atleast this one is our more favorable cold ground higher ratio event.
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6" exactly IMBY. All within exactly 4 hours from first to last flake. Very impressive considering the first hour temps were above 32 and ground temps. on frozen ground this was 8" in 4hrs. -
Pivot band setting up over eastern areas. Should be 2-3 hrs of crazy rates. Just hit 32. Everything covered. hrrr says additional 6-7. We will see how much ground truth we get!
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75/25 snow/rain 37.5 was the mark
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37.4 all rain. Any minute now...
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Temp accelerating here too. Down to 38.8. Mostly rain. Some sleet. Shouldn't be long!
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Right on cue as others. 39.7 and seeing bouncing sleet off the deck.
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40.6 here. Big dry slot moving in. Hopefully this will pivot back out.
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Massive bright banding across Morristown Newport and up to Kingsport. changeover in those areas shortly!
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I was wondering this. Hrrr has us going straight rain/snow basically. Good to hear that's the case more or less.
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I got my 2.5hrs. I'm ready to roll! Haha
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Hrrr and rap holding with 11-12" falling here in only 5-6hrs. Should see rapid changeover for Eastern areas over the next 1.5hrs. The fun should begin! latest hrrr has a couple hours of 3" rates for me.. hoping it is right!
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I think the entire valley is going to basically flash over change at the same time. Can see the CC wrapping around in a circle around KMRX. Probably still a couple hrs from any switching. Hrrr has me switching between 3-4am going to try my best to get a couple hours of restless sleep before haha
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18z hrrr had your area changing to all snow around 8pm. Energy is tilting negative and back building. You should be good for a few hours of decent rates!
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You guys think this is all snow for eastern areas? Usually when you see the maxed out blue it's bright banding mixing.
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12z tmrw I'm biting. 00z tonight every model but NAM I hit the 12" mark on kuchera. If that's the same tmrw at 12z I'm jumping on the train. If models are correct and I get 10-12" of snow in 6-7 hours it will by far be the most intense storm I've ever seen.
