fountainguy97
-
Posts
1,243 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by fountainguy97
-
It's not just temps either. Massive dryslot runs right up the gut of Eastern TN as the transfer occurs. Deform band crushes to the west. So the way I see it not only are we fighting temps but also the unavoidable downsloping that will probably show up even more pronounced on high res. For Eastern TN I wouldn't be hopeful for much action at all this weekend unless we get a decent track shift.
-
Euro is so tempting but I'm just not going to bite here tucked into the west side of the Appalachians. A LOT of things can severely impact snowfall from an event like this here. I'm not biting until it's go time.
-
lol
-
This is actually the best mean for most of TN and KY the gefs has spit out so far. For TN it will come down to how much moisture is associated with the ULL and first low. When the transfer happens we dry up fast besides some back side snow showers. The 12z GEFS has a significant increase in snow across TN Sunday morning. Fingers crossed that ends up being the case. I'd rather not sit in a dry slot for 30 hrs haha. EDIT: Honestly, we arnt in a terrible spot to make something out of seemingly a disaster trend. The EURO is still south. and GFS is very north. I'll take us being in the middle of those two at this point any day of the week. We wont be looking at a gnarly foot+ across the state but we could see another large swath of 6-7 inches if the cards shake out right.
-
Definitely still hope. But some GEFS at 06z actually never even transfer really. Just a gut punch up the spine of the apps. The gfs may not be insanely out there in la-la land
-
I'm still seeing some say they favor ensembles but.... overnight the ensembles have come toward the OPs in a big way. We are inside 5 days and touching 4. The OPs are more relevant now than ensembles imo. edit: it's also super obvious as I believe Webb mentioned on Twitter that the GFS OP has higher resolution than its ensembles. It led the ensembles into this NW trend.
-
Every storm is different but we do often see models "overtrend" in this 4-6 day period and then tick back in the last few days. that's how a lot of NW trends happen. Models dig too much and then tick backwards. This could be a reverse case. Or it could keep going NW haha i have to say the GFS has steadily moved NW over the last EIGHT runs. That is one of the longest and most consistent trends I've ever seen from any storm. 8 ticks in a row. It has to stop somewhere right?
-
GEFS mean going to be similar to 12z. GFS on the extreme northern end of its ensemble set. It's pretty safe to not trust that 18z run based on GEFS. edit: in fact 18z mean js better for TN
-
As per usual with a large southern storm every option is on the table and will be for at least another 48hrs. GEFS and eps both have anything from a clipper style to a suppressed non-event to a classic Miller A. Until we see ensembles narrow down to a couple of solutions I'll be sitting back. The good news is I almost always go by the "middle road" solution. And that middle scenario would mean a significant storm for portions of the South! The gfs has a sneaky NW flow event here in a few days.
-
It is had to beat. Today just feels like a core winter day in the mountains. How it's supposed to feel when living here. Even though it's not a huge storm I love days like this. Roads covering just by flurries. The big NW event last year I ended up with 7" over two days. It's a different type of event. Slower paced than a regular system. But just as enjoyable. Other than scraping a steep driveway multiple times a day
-
Have to say that snow in the teens is quite annoying. Every road now has a nice coating of snow again.
-
Got a half inch of graupel and snow on top. Driveway frozen solid down to 18. Heaviest snow of the storm right now!
-
34.7 and light snow. These back side bands look pretty good!
-
Not a flake yet temp FINALLY falling. Maybe I'll get a few minutes of flakes with these last bands.
-
White is above the value of 1 and I think can be considered untrustworthy. Basically an error. Uniform sized precip like all rain or all snow will be right around the value of 1. Any reduction in the value is a sign of different sized and shaped objects in the sky. Which is why we see the mixing line so well today. Also useful tracking tornadoes. Debris will show up as a very low value.
-
Honestly I never use the precipitation depiction. Correlation coefficient is always the best for discerning Ptypes
-
You should go back to snow after a while. Hrrr pulls the line to the east over the next few hours!
-
Our numbers grow every minute
-
Probably right. Low track makes it irrelevant. Needed it to slide 30-50Miles further south.
-
As soon as heavy clouds rolled in I stopped at 37. Slowly climbing. Afraid it was 2 hrs too late.
-
I wouldn't bet against the HRRR at this point. watch it's trends for the Eastern Valley. It did jump some in accumulations this last run for those areas. I think Eastern areas want as much backside snow as possible.
-
I think it's also the lack of clouds across eastern areas this morning. Heavy clouds will move in at the worst time after the sun has already pumped the valley into the 40s. Earlier runs that had less of a warm look never got eastern areas out of the mid/upper 30s. LP is also north. Surging warmth up the west side of the apps. Just not going to work. I've seen this rodeo before. A lot in Eastern NC with clouds rolling in at terrible times lol.
-
Here comes the sun doo doo doo doo.... haha looks fantastic across the Plateau! Cash in guys!
-
Fv3 trending exactly in line with the GFS. Nice uptick across the entire state really. edit: 12km NAM almost the exact same uptick in qpf.
-
For what it's worth I'm already 32 here in Erwin. Wasn't supposed to hit 32 until 3-4am. May not mean a thing though.
