fountainguy97

Except in this case they are. That's exactly what HRRR shows. 850mb winds mixing ALL the way to the surface at near 90-100% effectiveness. Hence why its required to watch the 850mb winds.

You can watch it on radar too. Seeing some 55mph on radar in that area. Slowly building just like HRRR. The rapid explosion of winds happens between 11-1pm for areas west of CLT. We will see if that verifies

the question is how high do the gusts go? I am highly suspicious of 80mph gusts somewhere. But I guess from a theoretical standpoint if we see 95-100% of the winds mix down its not out of the question...

Check out this one.

gusts yes

Seems likely. As the storm opens up and starts going extra tropical this filter dry air into the lower atmosphere. Allowing for what the HRRR shows. The question is how efficient will it be at pulling those upper winds to the surface?

here is the initial explosion of winds. This has to be over done right?? Here are the peak frames:

Guys this HRRR run is INSANE. winds 85+ WEST of Charlotte. and 5pm

It is the transition from tropical to extra-tropical that brings those 850's down. In certain cases it can be near 100% effective in bringing down those winds. 10m wind maps are the sustained speeds. This setup will not bring high sustained speeds. Rather it will bring very sudden and high gusts. So if HRRR is right some areas will be sustained 30-40mph winds but gusts 70-80mph. This is likely overdone.

HRRR continues to strengthen the band of winds with the latest run. This run is absolutely wild for Central NC. And honestly for the whole state.

It has before but no. That is the same time each image. Its the HRRR trend not a progressive run. So instead of 991mb the HRRR shows 989 at the same hour.

Yeah its hard to believe the high res. But lets check into their verification. So far the 06z HRRR run has verified in most places with its wind gusts within 5-10mph. Something else I have noticed in the past with the HRRR is that it usually locks in rather firmly in the 8-10 hour mark. And that normally happens by way of a big trend in the 14-8 hour range. Here is the latest 5 runs of the HRRR: We will see what comes of this. But that is a very obvious and large trend back to some impressive wind gusts.

The ATL NWS obs show several 36mph+ gusts.. exactly like hrrr showed so hrrr has been verifying away from core and in every area I’ve checked within 5-10mph

For what it’s worth the 12, 18, and 00z hrrr run have all had this type of gusts (70-80 and even 90mph on 00z) 00z being the most agrressive. You can probably shave those gusts down to 60-70 mph. As a general rule I usually reduce those gust maps a little. Now the normal 18hr runs are getting into range.

Yeah very hard to say. But I’d say there is a shot at some big time gusts tmrw. This storm is on another level than normal as far as intensity. It’s very possible for some residual 80-90knt 850mb winds to filter down almost 100% when the dry air filters in. Setup is there. But stars would have to align. The HRRR has enhancement started 14z tmrw so 10am? That’s the time to watch for verification. That and of course current run to run trends.

I’d say it’s “possible” from a theoretical standpoint. But it’s probably in the 95 percentile. Would have to get near perfection out of the enhancement and dry air filtering winds down to do that... but it is possible.

Wow latest HRRR is a beast with the backside enhancement.

Winds could easily be even higher for you. My wind speeds were for NC. 70-80mph gusts seem possible for you. This is not our traditional hurricane. It is not JUST speed either. The frontal enhancement as well as the intial stages of a change to cold core will make the system more efficient at bringing winds down to the surface. Most models are now really picking up on this.

Its not just EURO. NAM, UK, CMC, even GFS all show 60mph gusts or higher. Not to mention that Michael's current pressure is 15-20mb lower than any of those models. While that will not fully translate up to NC it could very easily be stronger than the models currently have it over NC.

agreed. It sucks right now, but on the flip side our cold is bottled up right where we want it to build snow pack for a possible early start to winter. That being said... we wont have a fall. It will probably jump straight from this pattern to a winter pattern. LOL

Yep! I don’t usually follow climate models just for that reason but they are comforting when supporting good winters. All in in all this really is a winter where all the factors could line up very nicely for winter. Solar minimum (probably a bigger deal than most make it out to be it is THE SUN after all lol) weak nino promotes active STJ -qbo helps promote blocking and sustained cold All of the very early indicators that we can actually guess at this far out are not looking bad at all. In fact, this could be a fun one I just don’t like hyping myself up this early on haha

I’ll take it CFS really trending colder for front half of winter. Got to like the ENSO look heading into late summer. Not too mention pretty decent ice up north and a VERY slow melt season in Greenland. that coupled with the solar min (a very significant minimum actually) gives way to some pretty epic recipes for winter.

Yeah Modoki is possible with 1.2 still well into Niña territory. You could say a lot of our patterns have been “in a rut.” ENSO is no exception. I think we will see a lot of erratic SST jumps for the next few weeks. Once we get some movement in the MJO then we will see a more steady trend in SST. Its really impossible to say but we should slowly, erratically work our way up to near/weak niño status. I’d expect some staying power to materialize as we get into fall to hold us in niño territory into the winter. Most climate models show niño holding into 2019. as far as when the surges of warming occur... your guess is as good as mine haha

Yeah looks like trade winds will slowly relax as we get into August. I’d say by early/mid August we see a steady warming trend happen. Won’t be fast but a slow warming. At at this point weak niño is a very solid bet. Moderate not out of the question either but not as likely. The question isn’t really will El Niño happen it’s more of how delayed will it be. It could be mid/late August and we have a weak El Niño or very very close to it. Or it could be much later. Either way weak/mod El Niño for 2018-19 winter is a good guess. For those of you tracking that little fact

DIVE DIVE DIVE!! inpressive cooling over the past week. Completely lost all ground made since mid-June and could continue for a little while longer. You can see the growth of cold pool in 1.2 and 3 by end of animation! probably just a blip or delay in our eventual weak warming trend but this sure has put a big hold on the El Niño occurrence into August.