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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Here are the analog Temps! Very similar to Carver's thoughts above! The Precip is dry BUT its a dry December, wet January, dry February. Here are the 3 months combined. Here is the wet January Anyway, I thought I'd just throw these out here I'm cautiously optimistic about this winter. Not so much because of a signal for massive cold but more of the chance we have to buck the recent winter patterns we have been stuck in. A weak nina or cool neutral can actually end up very favorable for alot of areas if we have the right setup elsewhere on the globe. PNA is also bucking its recent pattern of - in winter and + in summer (the last THREE winters have averaged a -PNA in DJF then prolonged + in summer). Currently we have seen a nice -PNA this summer. hopefully with some luck that can switch into the fall toward a +PNA through winter.
  2. fountainguy97
    Very interestingly I just pulled my first batch of analogs for the winter and low and behold they fall right in line with you thoughts outlined above. I just looking for similar ENSO progressions and pulled these years. I omitted a few that had strong ninos/ninas but left a few that actually hovered neutral but dipped back into Nino. Analogs: 92-93, 95-96, 03-04, 05-06, 10-11, 12-13 Purple zones are similar to 2020. Brown designates ENSO which mostly correspond to the way 2020 is evolving (some lag by a few months) Red is a zone that stands apart of the 2020 map. The older maps are more coarse so who knows how similar they truly are. Anyway, in general these years all share some very similar global SST patterns. I'm just throwing these in here. This is how those analogs evolved vs how we are evolving so far. PDO Analog Comparison QBO analog Comparison PNA Analog Comparison Hurricane Activity Comparison I found this extremely interesting. 5 of the 6 analogs were hyperactivte cane seasons. While things are not set in stone it is pretty likely that this year comes out very active as well. Analog US temps/precip in next post
  3. fountainguy97
    Got absolutely blasted earlier today. 40dbz on radar. by far the most intense snow squall I’ve ever seen. Was a mix of snow/graupel. Near white out for a few minutes! Definitely a top 1 snow event for me today. enjoy!
  4. fountainguy97
    Wow dumping here under pretty light returns. Was that common for you guys too?
  5. fountainguy97
    Finally. After hours of dry slot. good snow in Unicoi, TN! Let’s see what we can end up with
  6. fountainguy97
    Cold rain here in Unicoi county. COngrats on all seeing snow! Honestly NAM and HRRR have both done poorly with QPF and TEMPS. Watch this loop on HRRR. Temps and precip rates have trended colder and heavier up until hour 1. This has been the case every. single. run today and I fully expect it to continue into the evening and Eastern TN.
  7. fountainguy97
    35. All snow. Normal sized flakes. Already sticking on deck.
  8. fountainguy97
    36.5 temp. Snow mixing in!
  9. fountainguy97
    Just waiting on the surface temps here. Radar and soundings show just the shallow warm nose left here. temp dropping pretty quickly down to 41 now!
  10. fountainguy97
    No way! This is my dad's hometown so I have a lot of family here. Grew up coming here for Christmas. I was here for the December 2010 storm when well over a foot fell! I was sold on weather after that. Yeah Unicoi County is an amazing place for weather. I need to find the best mountain side somewhere around Unicoi/Erwin for snow and buy a house there hahaha Very excited about my first winter in the mountains! And learning an entirely new weather climate.
  11. fountainguy97
    I moved to Erwin, TN back in June! Chasing those first flurries across TN. Its the 3km NAM so probably not going to happen but there is some support from EURO and GFS at least for some mountain changeover. Leaf change in full force here in Eastern TN.
  12. fountainguy97
    Extreme SE Wake. Nam seems to be doing well here. had 1-2 hrs mixed bag. Rain ever since. currently abt 60/40 rain sleet. Gutters are running nicely. Deck melting. Be careful abt trusting hrrr. NAM verifying here atleast for now.
  13. fountainguy97
    I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM. Check this error.
  14. fountainguy97
    Nice trend for increased CAD. Pretty large trend to be so close.
  15. fountainguy97
    There I fixed your post. What a sad debate. You would certainly fail in a debate class. Keep up the wonderful and informative posts.
  16. fountainguy97
    Here it is. Good setup and good suppressed look for this timeframe. This is not the first run either. This storm has been on the last 6-8 runs. With the most recent two being pretty identical given the timeframe.
  17. fountainguy97
    I’m closely watching the 12-14th timeframe. Fv3-gfs has a suppressed storm with coastal NC getting a fringe snow event. Good setup with good cold on the backside. Surprisingly cold for November. If this his threat is still here inside 180hrs this could be a legit threat.
  18. fountainguy97
    Fv3 looking wintry in the long range. I will not be surprised to see a Southeast winter storm in December. Shoot maybe November.
  19. fountainguy97
    Posted this in the winter contest by mistake. Here is our winter forecast from Carolina Weather! Check it out! It is nothing groundbreaking. https://www.carolina-weather.com/winter-2018-19/2018/11/1/2018-2019-winter-forecast
  20. fountainguy97
    Here is our winter forecast from Carolina-weather! nothing new really. https://www.carolina-weather.com/winter-2018-19/2018/11/1/2018-2019-winter-forecast
  21. fountainguy97
    You have to like our position only a few weeks out from serious winter weather across the country. CP Niño shaping up which traditionally is the best ENSO pattern for us with the highest chance of below normal temps in the east with positive precip anomalies. CP Nino is also best for storm track (see the bottom set of graphics in the image below. This pic is for January-March. This ENSO is on top of low solar which will increase the chance of blocking. I read through some research on Mid Atlantic board that found blocking chances are 4x higher in low solar than other years. The NAO is showing signs of dropping into negative territory by the end of November for the first time in months! The stars certainly are aligning about as good as you can hope for for winter in the east. Its almost time to start looking at actual pattern trends as we get into late October! 1. Niño is establishing Itself 2. Hint of -NAO soon? 3. Some increased blocking this October is leading Toward some very early east coast systems Get ready boys. Winter looks fun.
  22. fountainguy97
    Interesting. Wonder if this style of wind leads to more damage? Maybe sudden surges close to 60? Seems very violent for trees.
  23. fountainguy97
    So basically an extended severe storm?
  24. fountainguy97
    Winds just above the surface (1,000-2,000ft) are picking Up extremely fast north of CLT.
  25. fountainguy97
    Interesting wind map from CLT. You can see what appears to be our intense band starting. That's 45-50+mph winds over Statesville only 800-1200 ft up
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