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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Just started here sticking to everything even the roads. Ground is frozen solid
  2. fountainguy97
    Temp surprisingly down to 28 already. Let’s see what we can scrape together over the next 12hrs or so. Hrrr has a pretty good second wave tmrw morning as well.
  3. fountainguy97
    Very good consensus for a pretty large NW event. Just waiting for the high res to get in range. GFS is very bullish still.
  4. fountainguy97
    Good catch. interesting setup this weekend with two drivers for NW snow. Models look cold too so ratios could squeeze a lot out. GFS is pretty bullish with QPF across the upslope areas this weekend. Not super common to see a global this aggressive with straight NW flow atleast in the few winters I've really paid attention. Maybe we can squeeze out a decent event below the 3500 mark. In fact, the UK, CMC, GFSv16 all mirror this look and amounts as well. Interested to see the NAM family as they come into range. I bet the 3km pumps out some ridiculous kuchera totals for the high peaks like it always does.
  5. fountainguy97
    love that radar depiction. Where do you get those?
  6. fountainguy97
    12z euro. this is not our 140-170 timeframe.
  7. fountainguy97
    UK almost drops a classic Miller A here. Looking good.
  8. fountainguy97
    yeah there is a LOT of energy flying around during this time. Highly likely this is one of those systems that could just kind of show a weak signal then pop up randomly around 120hrs. Usually these highly volatile patterns are modeled poorly outside 120-130. and even inside. 12z GEFS isnt quite as bullish but still plenty of signal. Wouldn't mind seeing sporadic Euro/EPS support over the next few days. But I'd say atleast 36-48 hrs before we know if this is legit or not. Maybe even longer.
  9. fountainguy97
    Same here having 3 very similar big dog members this far out is pretty bullish. Great signal for cold and a low pressure to our south. That’s all we can ask for at this stage. 12z may get interesting if we get some OP support. Gfs is suppressed and that’s exactly where we want it in this range.
  10. fountainguy97
    been watching this period for a few days now and the 06z GFS is starting to look very interesting for the 140-170 timeframe. Classic time for a storm as we shake up our pattern on the heels of a large frontal cold shot. This potential slides in just a couple days after much of the Eastern US is plunged into a pretty cool period. Could be a classic setup for the Southeast/Tennessee valley.
  11. fountainguy97
    pleasantly surprised here in Unicoi county. nice light/moderate snow. dusting on mulch is starting. I'll take a bust on this side over the last storm any day
  12. fountainguy97
    Delayed but not denied! 33.6 and light snow.
  13. fountainguy97
    Updated forecast for the rest of today. I do not buy this at all for Unicoi. HRRR has done very well for my area so far. Cant believe it’s verifying when it was by itself for so long. Hopefully you guys have had better luck I’m sitting at 34 with Wet grass.
  14. fountainguy97
    Pain over here in Unicoi. Been on this edge for hours
  15. fountainguy97
    37.6 here with some micro flakes flying. Waiting for the band from Asheville to head my way! should atleast manage an hour of good rates if hrrr is right. If other models are right this backbuilds over me. We will see
  16. fountainguy97
    congrats on those seeing snow! HRRR still concerning for us Eastern areas going into game time...
  17. fountainguy97
    MRX starting to bite a bit. Now that we are inside 12hrs haha very nice consensus finally forming on our “big 3” meso models. Hrrr is ticking their way each run as well.
  18. fountainguy97
    12km and 3km are rocking for us tonight! Hrrr leaping and bounding toward them as well. Euro has been showing this for days now. Time to get a little bit excited I think
  19. fountainguy97
    Seems like it’s all in the flow. watch this GIF. You can quickly see the initial dry slot as I assume mountains etc soak up a lot of moisture. Then our flow halts and pivots and you see an explosion of precip in NE TN and the valley. you can see the initial dry slot I assume is caused by just the initial flow and mountains blocking a lot of moisture. Atleast I know for Unicoi this flow often can lead to a lack of precip. then as we see the pivot we see that explosion into the valley and across NE TN. And if this happens we could be talking abt some very nice rates and a very slow moving band. Easy 2” an hour in places. so it’s almost like a two step process. Step one will actually take a while. Don’t be surprised to see a lot of weak precip all around us all through the evening and tonight but that’s expected! The real show is early tomorrow morning when we get that veering flow.
  20. fountainguy97
    Someone is going to see biscuit sized flakes under this. Look at that vertical motion from 800mb to 400mb
  21. fountainguy97
    Hrrr is trending better and better now that we are getting into its range. Falling in line with others.
  22. fountainguy97
    A very nice kind of similar theme is starting to develop now that we are inside 24 hrs lol. still a lot of variation between some models but we are getting there.
  23. fountainguy97
    so the HRRR ticked north which its not even in its wheelhouse yet. 12km NAM came in really bullish and the 3km is now much less bullish haha I feel like all this flipping around is just indicative of the mesoscale nature of this one. We may never get a uniform solution across models until right at game time tonight. It really feels like we are tracking individual supercells on the long range hrrr and 3km nam with how much they are jumping haha.
  24. fountainguy97
    12z 12km nam looks much better. coming in line with its high res counter part. 12km actually buries the Eastern Valley
  25. fountainguy97
    Yep Hrrr stepped toward other models. It’s still it’s long range too. Usually not reliable until 12-14hrs out or so
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