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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Hey crew. I'm just over the hill in TN but figured I may start poking my head in here as my weather coincides with this thread most times. 12z gfs finally came around to an extremely borderline but pretty significant NW event this weekend.
  2. fountainguy97
    Gfs "caved" to euro at 12z. Can we squeeze out an extremely borderline NW event over Thanksgiving Weekend? This 5 day change is crazy.
  3. fountainguy97
    We live in Erwin, Tn area. 2000ft! I grew up in Greenville, NC which was our trip this weekend.
  4. fountainguy97
    NW Flow managed to bring a few bands this way today. We are visiting family in NC but the ring doorbell looks nice and cold. high of 36 at 1am. Currently 32.5.
  5. fountainguy97
    Starting to look toward the winter and I agree with everything here. Early peaking La Niña or Lanada looks all but guaranteed for winter. I see a decent start possible but into 2023 it's going to be hard not to torch. good news is we are due a nice rebound to El nino for 23-24!
  6. fountainguy97
    Well my whining paid off. 2.4" last few days. weird day today for mid July. If only these were the colors of returns today.
  7. fountainguy97
    Yeah I racked up in the early half of June. Guess it's time to even it out!
  8. fountainguy97
    My week so far. Miss, miss, miss, miss, miss, miss, miss. 3 weeks with barely a drop. Is it December yet?
  9. fountainguy97
    93.0 today. Record high for my station. Going back to July 2020.
  10. fountainguy97
    It's 83 with a 76.6 DP this morning.. this is the most oppressive heat I've felt since I've moved here.
  11. fountainguy97
    Looks like for once the modeled changeover was actually realized. In fact, according to CC I may have changed well before the HRRR said I would. easy 1.5" Right now with moderate rates and 30.4 temp. Edges of asphalt is covered and I imagine in the next few hrs a flash freeze will happen as temps keep falling into the 20s
  12. fountainguy97
    Solid .5-.75 this morning. 21-22 stats: 9 events totaling 16.5" Basically right on the average numbers from my 3 winters of tracking.
  13. fountainguy97
    4K video of peak rates. Click Here!
  14. fountainguy97
    Same thing here. I have started taking my measurements and reporting them here. https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/report/ So far, every report has been used! I've noticed the same thing here as far as severely under-reported snowfall. But not anymore with my reports!
  15. fountainguy97
    4" of powder here. Rates pushing 2" at times. High-res performed horribly but some of their longer range runs hit it right on the money. I think the low DGZ and moisture caused them to really struggle. HRRR only showed snowfall along the heaviest showers but reality we saw a pretty widespread area of light/moderate snow from the NW flow.
  16. fountainguy97
    Ripping here.
  17. fountainguy97
    18z hrrr had a wicked meso-low with convective storms across TN tomorrow. Look at this thing.
  18. fountainguy97
    This weekend sure went poof. Even for NW flow. Bleh. IF we end up cold and snowless like the GFS more or less shows tonight it won't be long before I'll be hoping for spring and warmth.
  19. fountainguy97
    Think our chances of cashing in on the bomb are down toward zero at this point. We need a 250mile+ shift west with the timing of negative tilt to even be in the game. And even then not sure the precip shield gets into TN. So we can kiss that solution goodbye. E TN could still get some overrunning front side and NW flow on the backside from this but even then, looks to end up on the lighter 2-4inch side of things
  20. fountainguy97
    Honestly, I have not been impressed with the EURO at all this winter. It has rarely if ever really led the way or won a battle vs other models. Its GFS/GEFS/RGEM/HRRR for me until proven otherwise. I don't really favor the GFS 12z run of stringing it out as an extremely likely solution. 12GEFS members most of them but a few are consolidated storms. Just depends on track for where the snow ends up. I think we see that consolidated look. Just not sure where at yet.
  21. fountainguy97
    I see a lot of left leaning members here. And several extreme right. Won't be surprised to see this tuck in right along the NC coast.
  22. fountainguy97
    I'm seeing more consolidated members on 12 GEFS out to hr 102. Only a hand full of strung out solutions now. EDIT: Hr 108 the PNA continues to pump. Leading to a steeper trough. Should have more amped memebrs this time. EDIT 2: East TN is going to love this run of GEFS and its trend.
  23. fountainguy97
    06z gfs honestly looks great for the East Coast. Someone is going to get buried this weekend. Gfs is ticking for a quicker phase. A couple more ticks and it gets fun for a lot of the South. With little blocking any amping is going to pull this north. E TN is on storm watch for this weekend. notice a lot of GOM members now.
  24. fountainguy97
    Here it is.
  25. fountainguy97
    I am pretty sure the Bulls Gap returns were not convection but an animal. I've noticed the classic "ring" around this time in that exact area typical of insects/birds. (Another benefit of tier 2 RadarScope. Archive and my own custom color tables) The CC also indicates extreme differences in size of objects. Although this forum isn't letting me upload it.
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