fountainguy97

You are right! These maps are very misunderstood and they always make storms look way better Than reality. The precip map is a 3 hr averaged precip map. That's why it's so large of a precip shield when in reality it'll be abt a third that size. the way I understand the Ptype is that it's an average. So if the bulk of it is rain it'll show as rain. 2hrs rain and 1 hr snow gives you a rain result. Gfs maps are even worse because they are 6 hr averaged. Yuck. gfs 6 hr averaged gfs radar at that exact time.

Deep dive into the model differences. There are a couple slight differences between gfs and euro. The most prominent is that the 500mb vort is further south and in a better alignment to funnel cold our way on the gfs. (The gfs just has a better cold push) We need to see this heavy negative tilt persistent on the GFS. I believe that orientation is a large reason that our cold push is ahead of the moisture vs behind. The gfs has a scooping trajectory that really helps accelerate our cold into the region. The EURO is more of a Linear trajectory not to mention much further north.. This goes for all levels as well. the NAM is leaning toward the GFS on the trajectory at 500mb but not fully there. We want to see the gfs hold it's southern most vort trajectory and even tick further south. It is our main driver for moisture. The GFS is also just straight up more energetic with our moisture. Possibly due to our Vmax convo from above. But it's 925-700mb moisture is a tap straight from the Great Lakes with the Gulf side aiding transport on the front line. The EURO has a much more anemic transport across all areas. 00z we want to see the GFS vort trajectory stay or even tick south. They are prone to ticking one way or the other up until go time. I'm probably not understanding the root cause but rather just seeing the surface levels but that's just what my untrained eye sees right now.

On a positive note it is very encouraging to see the NAM favor the GFS with most of the precip behind the cold front. NAM has a long range dry bias. So maybe it'll beef up in time.

Gfs is certainly some eye candy. legit death band with temps plummeting. Places are getting smoked with 6" in 3hrs or less.

Can't get behind the GFS. 3KM NAM paints a .5-1" swatch across the state. I think it's a novelty event. There is very little NW flow of any kind associated with this event. It's nearly all frontal. And even that is in question. Should be a very very minor snow event looking at things this afternoon. Gfs is in need of an emergency shutdown and repair. Maybe this will age poorly lol 12z euro and GFS still have the same qpf. One is frozen one is not. Main show is the sheer amount of cold we will have Friday.

There is really no major difference in qpf between euro and GFS. The GFS has the bulk of precip falling behind the 32 line will EURO has it in front. for now the RGEM/NAM seem to favor the gfs although I'm skeptical of meso models until inside 48hrs.

06z gfs is actually a nice hit for many. It has MUCH more of the front as snow than euro and crew. I remain extremely skeptical after the GFS performance with this one. I've never had fun with "cold chasing moisture" setups. Although this is on an extreme level. Ratios will be extreme. So even .2 more qpf can stack on 4+ inches.

Oh she cutting hard this run. What a storm this is going to be this week.

I'll be interested to see how long my inch of snow lasts with this airmass lol. Very impressive cold shot for sure.

I feel like this is one of those storms that has 1000 scenarios that mostly don't work for us and only 1 that does. Even if we get more focus on the miller A low it doesn't really matter unless it's the primary. No way we get back to that. In fact, a coastal transfer could end up dryslotting ETN more. This is all or nothing I believe.

06z gfs undid all the positive trends and is now the least snowy it's been lol. Towel has been thrown for me. Let's kick the can another 10 days down the road like we have done since thanksgiving

Yeah don't think the DGZ level means a whole lot really but still crazy to be on the surface in our area.

With the DGZ literally on the ground I will be extremely curious to see how Meso Models handle the NW aspect of this event. In uncharted territory as far as my NW experience here. Could be single digits and NW flow. The only negative is it's relatively short lived.

Gfs has been ticking east since 12z. it may not be 2feet across the entire state but this isn't over. We have a LONG time before it's completely set.

I mean the 18z gfs is still a substantial hit. Maybe we can see euro trend toward a snowier solution. I'll admit the gfs scenario does seem a bit odd. Possible. But not sure I've seen anything quite like it before.

Although the snow didn't go the way anyone wanted this is still an absolutely incredible cold shot. Even more so now without snow cover.

Yet another event we have to kick the can down the road for. Been doing it since thanksgiving. EURO obviously going to win this match.

Icon with a big shift to GFS. Single digits and heavy NW flow for most of TN. Meanwhile GFS making a tick toward euro at 500mb so far. We may end up with one of these weird in between systems after all

This difference is pretty wild at 48hrs out between gfs and euro. look over Alaska. The GFS already has a much more discreet energy piece. Wonder how it's getting that while no other model is showing it.

This would shut up the old timers about how "it used to snow so much" follow this up with multiple runs to zero and below and you have a historic event across ETN for sure

Our energy is over Russia currently. It hits the Canadian coastline in 5 days. We have a LONG way to go with this first event. Key for the next 2-3 days will continue to be the ensembles. Typically when the OPs lose a storm in this range and it is a legit threat the ensembles don't budge.

Idk if it's the perfect flow or what but this is one of the most intense wind events I've experienced here. It's legitimate mid range tropical storm conditions here. The 00z Euro would be wild. Near zero with NW flow and possible blizzard level winds.

I'm not going to lie. All I see is models kicking the can down the road. Nothing concrete has moved into the more confident short range or even mid range. Our first two storms (front passage and suppressed wave behind it) have gone their way. Third one already pretty far north on guidance. 06z gfs continuing that trend. Really hope we don't kick the can in these threats straight into spring.

Looks like NW chances have diminished some today. Still a novelty event though.