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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Some monumental changes with the 18z gfs regarding this weekend. the icon also has the bowling ball and it's even further south. This type of scenario could work for a much larger area than typical NW flow.
  2. fountainguy97
    Man. Another mostly dry and cool frontal passage in the works on the heels of the mid-week system. Just can't get anything to line up this winter. Everything is either too far west or in this case too far east. With winter on the way out I will be looking forward to these warmer days ahead!
  3. fountainguy97
    Good bit of consistency today for the 180-200hr event. Likely another backside NW event setup... wish we could get one of these to our south before spring.
  4. fountainguy97
    35 here. An occasional wet flake mixing in now. Oh so close to a paste bomb.
  5. fountainguy97
    Low res NAM for the win. Am I desperate? Maybe. Will it happen nope. it pulls some cold air down the back spine of the Apps. Interesting evolution. Probably WAY overdone. probaly a resolution issue. 3km is actually great for areas above 3000'. But need some colder air for lower regions.
  6. fountainguy97
    Man that squall east of Nashville looks awesome.
  7. fountainguy97
    Yeah I've been reluctant to bite for much long range chatter this winter but the 12z GEFS has a decent cluster of similar solutions. creeping inside 200hrs. Looks like this is a legit storm signal. Probably for points North and west of the vast majority of TN. we can be cautiously hopeful with this GEFS mean. Emphasis on cautious lol
  8. fountainguy97
    hrrr looking good for some streaky snow totals over the next two days. Bullseye over Unicoi with 5" IMBY. I'll take it haha
  9. fountainguy97
    Wednesday evening-Thursday looks pretty interesting. Has graupel squalls written all over it. Quick 15 min dusting type stuff. They can be pretty fun. I got nailed by a near 40dbz one a couple years ago here and it was white out for abt 10 min. Couldn't see 200ft in front of you.
  10. fountainguy97
    Uh.. wow
  11. fountainguy97
    Well 3 minor chances this week. Better than nothing! 1st event Monday will be border mountains only. Probably not a lot of accumulation. 2nd event could be a more prolonged NW event and could get more areas involved. Still in the 1-3" range. 3rd event is a sneaky clipper on the heels of event 2. Several GEFS members have a nice little thumping of snow on already frozen ground. Something the first two don't have. All in all nothing major but atleast something to snack on!
  12. fountainguy97
    These two storms washed out quickly but the pattern after is not the worst I've seen. I think we are going to battle La Nina background state pretty hard. We just have to get lucky with an ideally timed storm. This January is a certified torch running 8 degrees above my norm for Jan. Interesting how some winters the enso state is hardly felt in the pattern and then others it washes out everything. This year la Nina has fully taken over the US pattern. The DJF averages will probably come out pretty close to the typical la nina composites.
  13. fountainguy97
    Not a bad trend on GFS with the first system but temps are gross. No cold air in sight. I say its the "table setter" for the one behind. Which also is low on coolant lol. not much to hang our hats on with temps so marginal right now. We will need a nice bombing low to wrap cold air in.
  14. fountainguy97
    Yeah as usual the risk is for these to all cut. That's been the theme more or less this winter. Let's see if we can get some blocking pressure to hold these south. I'm doubtful for now. Feel like these setups general like to bleed north vs south.
  15. fountainguy97
    Yeah looks like models are picking up on some noise for those two. First system doesn't have much cold air to work with. Second one is the higher percentage but both are on the table. Nice to see all models hinting around for that timeframe.
  16. fountainguy97
    The 180-210 timeframe has a small potential. Looks very cutter-esque though.
  17. fountainguy97
    Still snowing lightly this morning. Tiny flakes. Moisture getting thin.
  18. fountainguy97
    Safe to say HRRR was out to lunch. I'm pleasantly surprised. Ground smoothing over. Probably end up with 3-4" when all said and done.
  19. fountainguy97
    Absurd
  20. fountainguy97
    Absolutely pouring snow right now. Beautiful
  21. fountainguy97
    Still 32.5 lol nice rates though!
  22. fountainguy97
    Radar looks GREAT right as night falls. Let's see who can rack up.
  23. fountainguy97
    Man just can't get to 32 for anything here. Back to 33.1. Grrrr
  24. fountainguy97
    Getting absolutely blasted by graupel. Roads covered instantly
  25. fountainguy97
    Full on graupel squall last 30 min. Daytime and temp above 32 limiting accum. But as soon as we get toward evening this will stack quickly if there is any left
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