fountainguy97
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Everything posted by fountainguy97
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Wow I go to sleep for 2 hours and the whole thing unravels... Edit 6am: I'm not surprised that we have more uncertainty at this stage and not less. 06 gfs, icon, NAM are all good hits for the mountains but cmc and RGEM are warm. The gfs is absurd. 9" kuchera in 6 hrs for alot of places.This one is far from over. -
I wouldn't be surpsised for the spread to breiefly widen. Seems like that happens alot with bigger events. as long as we are in the middle of the cone we are good. Atleast according to @Carvers Gap
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It's strange but in a way trending toward others. another tick or two west and it'll start bringing it north pretty quickly. That being said the 18z GEFS is a complete miss for our area too. It sure is stubborn. Still by far the outlier.
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We need to cash this ASAP. Euro is actually the lowest model in regards to QPF. Good to see. All 12z models besides gfs are similar evolution. Potential for a mid-sized winter event for sure. Still doubtful on alot of accumulations but looks good. Probably thread worthy!
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Yeah a miss to the east BUT it did come west abt 25miles. Moisture just still doesn't make it over. 12z CMC coming in identical to NAM. GFS continues to be the outlier.
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no. 69hrs. its maybe 25miles further west than last run. I guess better than nothing haha It is further east by 100 miles over any model from 00z to 12z
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12z maybe a TOUCH better. But its still by far the most progressive model compared to any of them.
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Yeah trends have really turned into ticks. GFS is the only model further east. We will see where it goes here.
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I think the saving grace with this is the fact we "should" have amounts already on the ground by sun-up. There are a lot of factors to limit accums but if we can manage a good coating before sunrise we should be ok. Wet ground, warm temps, sun. Thats a lot of things cutting into totals. I'd cut Kuchera in half probably.
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Pretty much all models have a rain to snow event for us. starts 3amish Sunday morning and peaking around sunrise.
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12z suite: the NAM, RGEM, and ICON are all holding strong to the earlier cutoff idea. (good) I will update this as we go along. Early consensus does place us squarely in the "center of the cone" per Carver's wishes. Still lots of game time left.
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the timing of it closing off is the main factor. The faster it closes off (stronger quicker) = a further west track. The 06z gfs was more pr0gressive and weaker with the ULL. It closed off much later. As a result, the surface low was further west. ICON, CMC, EURO, and now the 12z NAM are all much stronger with a quicker close off which slows the storm down and allows it to pivot inland.
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These ULL systems are notorious for being a pain. Best to just sit back and see how this looks inside 48hrs. icon, cmc, euro at 6z are all lock step together with a East TN, App Spine hit. gfs and GEFS shifted east nearly 100miles at 06z to west NC. 12z should be a good benchmark as we are fully sampled BUT I've seen these get more uncertain at this range instead of more concrete. Unfortunately cut even kuchera in atleast half due to wet ground, daytime timing, and temps above 32. This is one of those "6" fell but only 2" stuck" type of deals.
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Impressive mean on 18z eps but GEFS is still spread. Wary of the super amped gfs for now. anyone have individuals for 18z?
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Some great trends at 12z for some snow across the Southeast. Not so much our neck of the woods but the crew over in the Carolinas are absolutely snow starved haha. Maybe they can reel one in.
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The major checkpoint for me for a threat is getting the energy onshore over the US. Our energy will be partially onshore by 00z tonight and fully onshore by 12z runs tomorrow. Typically the 24hr period leading up to full onshore sampling is when we see the "snap" to a more uniform idea on modeling. That period starts in just a few hours. We should know rather soon if this is legit. Euro took another step for more separation at 06z this morning. Icon is heavily separated and the UK is a nice mountain snow like the GFS. This has more support than just the GFS model.
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Oct31-nov1 2014. Different trajectory but same idea. Bowling ball with extremely marginal temps. Probably was a paste bomb. probably more robust than this will be.
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Man what a borderline event in the 6z gfs. These "make its own cold" setups are nearly impossible to pull off. the gfs has been accelerating the northern piece which has allowed our southern to cutoff. Not much support but UK, Icon have a bowling ball. And the euro shifted that way at 0z.
