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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Wow NAM even better at 500mb. This is a doozy. man closed off ULL at hr 51. This thing is cranking big time on NAM. Going to be some big totals.
  2. fountainguy97
    I'm hungry for flakes
  3. fountainguy97
    Figured we can keep the main topic clean and talk about the weekend here. 18Z NAM tilted our trough much more neutral vs positive which is really helping to stack up significant qpf across the NW prone regions. Every tick more neutral will add to totals quietly. Even a good bit of moisture up to 700mb now. RGEM is on board as well. High mountains should see 6+ easily in a setup like this. Should see some thunder as well with temps in the upper 60s, DPs in the upper 50s, and Cape into the 500 range. Exciting weekend ahead!
  4. fountainguy97
    12z NAM family looks great. 24-36hrs of NWSF. Some streamers across the valley too.
  5. fountainguy97
    Very true lol. NAM was stacking it on and had several hours to go. Maybe we squeeze out something noteworthy this weekend.
  6. fountainguy97
    While not prolific by any means the 18z NAM is a good sign for this weekend. Plenty of backside moisture up to 700mb thanks to the large UL trough pivoting through. Should be a good 24hr window for NW flow.
  7. fountainguy97
    Can't complain with this look
  8. fountainguy97
    Long range NAM is almost always too dry. In my experience at least. It used to be too wet but they over corrected it the other way.
  9. fountainguy97
    Models have really taken a step back tonight. Oh well. Looks like a minor NW event. This has been a rough one so far. Hoping we can atleast get one decent event before spring.
  10. fountainguy97
    Doesn't turn negative in time but much better euro run. Northern energy becomes the dominant piece like cmc.
  11. fountainguy97
    Euro with a lot more energy with our northern stream. Let's see where it goes
  12. fountainguy97
    For those of you who have not been tracking this weekends storm. The EPS/GEFS have had some hints of this but the CMC is the first global to confirm this solution. The Northern stream energy has been trending stronger and slower over the top of our bowling ball. This has allowed that piece to rotate around the trough and become the main player over the Eastern seaboard. We would like to see this trend continue a bit more so our storm goes negative tilt sooner and can throw more precip back our way.
  13. fountainguy97
    There was a LOT of noise on the overnight EPS. CMC on board is a huge step forward. if we can get this transition to happen quickly and cleanly it could really bump totals for ETN. Probably won't help the valley a ton. Folks along the East Coast could have a "surprise" storm on their hands.
  14. fountainguy97
    EPS really likes that reforming low. Not sure if it means anything for our area.
  15. fountainguy97
    18z gfs joins the "backside enhancement" group. Steeper trough. Don't see a surface reflection besides maybe a meso-low over in NC.
  16. fountainguy97
    Yep and our upper air energy is a massive vortex with multiple pieces swinging around. It's still offshore for 3 days. How they shear apart and make their way across the US is not set in stone at all. Long way to go.
  17. fountainguy97
    12z has been an interesting suite for our weekend storm. Chances are still zero but there has been a shift to more of a slider solution with a late coastal reformation. ICON and CMC both are more of a slider with a coastal reformation too far out to sea. BUT there has been an increase in GEFS members that also show this but have the coastal close enough for some enhancement. 7 memebrs now have the second enhancement close enough to our area to prolong our event... But GFS remained the same with the more powerful northern dominant storm. This comes down to which lobe of energy can take over. Some of these gefs members are halfway decent for East TN. I don't think this is a big event for us but this coastal reform is the path for a more meaningful event. The CMC is a weird in between but look how undefined that Low pressure is....
  18. fountainguy97
    For what it's worth the EURO overnight did return to the bowling ball solution which pulled the low further south. Didn't change snowfall much but that is a step in the right direction.
  19. fountainguy97
    5month old keeping us up tonight. 06gfs is cutting even more. We just can't get a southern track to save our lives this year. Safe to say 3rd year Nina's are not the move for snow.
  20. fountainguy97
    wow to @Carvers Gap point about a crawling storm the 12z GEFS has significantly increased that solution. some bombs on it If EURO and EPS also support this, then it is safe to say we at least have a pretty unanimous storm setup with the bowling ball. Historically these setups have dumped some of the largest totals across the SE. A long way to go but we take our chances with this. Temps are a concern right now.
  21. fountainguy97
    12z GFS and CMC both with similar evolutions. Very marginal NWFS.
  22. fountainguy97
    Have to like the signal we have here in the 7-10day range. Having the euro/EPS on our side is something we didn't have last time. Energy is coming onshore in 120hrs. This isn't really complete fantasy land. Having EPS/GEFS signal here is pretty legit.
  23. fountainguy97
    Weather.us has a cool EURO ERA5 archive back to 1950. I have also found the snowfall records here to be absolutely pitiful. This is snow depth so likely on the low side of what actually fell.
  24. fountainguy97
    MRX office right now.
  25. fountainguy97
    Congrats to all! Unfortunately a shutout here. Mountains robbing moisture for me today.
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