fountainguy97
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Everything posted by fountainguy97
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Deform finally moving in but a toasty 39. Hoping to atleast see some flakes.
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My guess is daytime timing has killed this. Tough day of 38-42 and rain ahead. Definitely puts a nice bookend to this winter lol. man... stings.
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Tick tick tick hrrr looking good. final frame.
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I'm not really sure about why some models have a deform band of death vs others with barely showers. You would think we would have a monster deform pivoting through... the Rgem made a big move for a heavier deform at 12z. Let's see it's 18z.
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Can clearly see the difference between NAM and RGEM. For NE TN temps aren't the issue. It's rates.
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I've been watching trends on the pivoting deform band as a potential surprise and the 18z nam just delivered. the euro camp from last night had the deform band pivoting further east allowing areas of NE TN to change to biscuits for the last 6 hrs of the event. Here is the nam trend. The hrrr has also ticked this way.
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RAP, FV3 and EURO (hrrr too but just not quite there) have the deform band further east which allows rates to change NE TN to snow. They all have a good 6hr beat down on the tail end. This feature is still 40hrs out. Plenty of wiggle room. We may not be done yet.
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The fv3 came in like euro.
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Not sure. I've been tricked many times by the "but the soundings support snow" talk and almost always ended up watching rain fall. But this weekend is intriguing. I'm 33-34 and rain on hrrr with a cold column. It's so interesting to see the euro changing over to snow. Like I said. I'm not betting against modeled output but if there is any weekend to question soundings this is the one.
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Woah... I missed this at 18z. I honestly can't find a meaningful difference between euro and others...
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Yes I think the issue isn't the temperature more than it's just the deform band has moved west. If you look at simulated radars there is a massive dry slot Sunday. Rates can never overcome because there simply are no good rates.
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1000 mile shift south still wasn't enough lol.
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Tough pill to swallow. It never sat right with me that it was just so different than the rest and didn't budge. The whole cmc family never moved. should have been the red flag.
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RGEM is king.
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At 06z I can no longer ignore the warm solutions. CMC, ICON, RGEM, GFS are showing very little snow west of the apps. Looking bleak today. The NAM is also looking worse too although it jumped NW.
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Anyone have 18z euro maps?
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I think NAM has a dry slot over NE TN. It's pretty far west. 18z has come out pretty bland. Icon and NAM and RGEM all bleh. What's with 18z runs? Yesterday was rough too. what do you guys make of the RGEM being all rain? Its track is pretty far west too. But even then it's all rain besides 3500+
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12z euro is amazing for Eastern areas. Plenty of cooling. Decent timing. This confirms we more or less have a general agreement on track. Still room for a 25-50mile shift before this is over -
Hr 66 euro nearly 50miles SE of 00z run and weaker. hr 72: precip shield 50 miles east of 00z we now have a pretty tight consensus edit: euro crushes north of I-40 and east of I-81
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Euro has stopped moving west it appears. This run is a tiny tick back east. hr 54: all models nearly identical besides gfs which is 50miles faster (east) than everyone else.
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I've seen these 3 day trends stop and then reverse abt 25% up to game time. Who knows with this setup. The good news is the euro is still the extreme west guidance. Will be interesting to see it's 12z run.
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Yeah it's mid-day now.. this earlier cutoff has slowed us down to peak daytime heating.
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Temps are becoming a serious issue across models. RGEM is abysmal. Even NAM is absolutely borderline for a lot of people. We are losing the cold pretty quickly.
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Brutal hole for the valley. This track is going to cause a lot of temp issues for valley areas. And with the heaviest rates to the west.
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We have a 100mile difference between Euro and gfs today. Euro is NW and much more snow further into TN. The resolving of this will determine where the heaviest snow sets up this weekend.
