SnowGoose69

The CFS is exponentially more accurate at day 25 than day 30. So if you’re looking at a forecast for 12/25 today it’s likely to be more accurate by a wide margin on 11/30 than today. I’ve seen cases where it flips 6-10 degrees on a 25 day forecast vs what it showed 4 days prior

It’s probably BS though. As a couple of those Twitter Mets have been saying (minus HM who has been very much on the cold train). Those recent flips back to a better pattern post day 10 on the EPS are likely not accurate if the MJO goes into 3-4-5 though if it’s a muted wave and the AO/NAO are negative perhaps it won’t be a shutout pattern

If the MJO goes into 3-4 though I’m not sure the pattern will be that good. Even if we do see the AO/NAO return negative

The whole setup is sort of similar to 12/19/95. That system didn’t track southeast, hence much higher amounts than this would produce but it was a product of a well timed blocked in an otherwise ugly pattern with marginal temps ahead of it

Yeah I can’t think of anything that did that either. That’s why I think over time we could see this thing just look more weak and strung out.

The AO has a better correlation in December than the NAO but we did have one fairly -AO December recently (maybe 2012) where for several reasons we ended up torching despite the -AO

Even prior to today’s charts showing that spike with the apparent immediate drop back down HM has been saying for about a week on Twitter he felt the AO rise was going to be brief and then go right back to negative. Today’s ensembles start showing that idea but still too far out to know

Those forecasts could easily flip back. I don’t trust those things beyond 7 days

Eventually this winter pattern has to end. This would be what? 7-8 years in a row of this now. Figure we are due either this winter or next to see it switch to something else

Bastardi has long said that drought conditions in the East from 10/1-11/15 are usually a bad indicator for the winter most of the time. Not only indicating dry but also that it may be mild. 1994, 2001, and 2011 all saw that happen.

The projections i have seen are 2023-2029 being the window. I think somewhere closer to 2023 is more likely.

It could be some sort of cold AMO connection too. Most of the below 0 days occurred during that so likely has at least some impact on it

Yeah when I went back and looked at the surface maps post 1910 of all the below zero nights I think all of them minus that insane 1917 outbreak had strong winds. The difference is for some reason there were more instances of highs/arctic outbreaks entering the US east of 80-85W back then where as now we rarely if ever see that and when we do often times the trajectory will be too E-SE so the core of the cold air goes over New England and not here.

I could see it being like a December 02 maybe...not necessarily snow wise but temp wise that at least is respectable and averages near normal. I don't think we will see a torch pattern or SE ridge though some forecasts have inexplicably (in my mind anyway) gone with a pronounced SER in December

The only way you do well in this setup is if there is more negative tilt to the trof/front as it crosses or if a surface low forms along the boundary as its pushing offshore.

Looking ahead at the AO forecasts next 2 weeks if that verifies it seems virtually impossible we could have a positive AO winter. Without even looking I would guess there is at most 2 cases of a -2 or greater AO November having a Dec-Feb AO average positive

Its pretty strange. You wonder if May being warm or cold correlates the same way to June-Aug reversing. I definitely know a few years like 1996 and 2002 saw May be the complete opposite of summer which ended up pretty cold in both cases though 2002 had a pretty meaningless late comeback in the last 2 weeks of August which skewed it

2/6/93 I think, it was a Saturday. I clearly remember that sunset too now that you mentioned it. I thought we would see widespread below 0 lows that night because the high dropped straight out of Quebec and we had a snow pack but nobody got even close. The forecast was for maybe a dusting-2 inches and a localized 4-7 hit because of a surface reflection that formed along the boundary across NJ and south of LI.

December 84 and 90 I thought had the biggest snowfalls of the 80s and they were 6.6 and 7.8 respectively I believe

That I believe was one of only 2 storms ever to give 6 inches to DCA and BOS but not also give 6 to NYC. The other occurred only 10 months prior to that on 1/26/87. I believe JFK did get 6 on 1/26/87 but LGA and NYC saw way less

There’s no question it has some sort of bad correlation but I don’t believe the snow event itself is the reason. It’s the pattern which leads to the snow event. Chances are if you see a snow event before 11/20-11/25 in this area you’re under some sort of anomalously cold pattern. There’s been plenty of evidence that getting too cold too early can cause some sort of atmospheric reshuffle between the mid latitudes and polar regions that impacts the winter. 89-90 is one example and there’s quiet a few others.

At this rate the NAM will be around for 5 more years at least

They should just name it for media purposes. It’s way easier for some of these rip and readers on air to say Jerry for the next two weeks than Imelda.

Yeah that system would be destroyed under that circumstance unless it was moving 25 kts as it crossed Hispaniola

Yeah I’ve seen that writeup too. I’ve always said that 3/2/09 on a small scale was what was supposed to happen on 2/24/89 that didn’t. The two setups had big similarities at 500. They almost were as close to being identical type setups as February 83 and December 09 were. The NWS was also very slow to react too. The models (including the NGM) sort of started backing off the event for NYC and PHL as early as 12Z on the 23rd but it was a gradual back off to an extent. I think by 10pm on 2/23 when the 00Z runs came out most mets knew the forecast was in big trouble but they were reluctant to totally take things down. February 89 scarred many meteorologists to the extent I know of quite a few still working who aren’t exactly people with great memories but they recall well what happened with that event. I almost think I’ve come across more meteorologists who remember busting 89 than March 2001. I know someone posted here or another forum in recent years that a forecaster in the NYC or PHL office who worked the days leading up to the 89 storm was never the same after and was somewhat shy to take media calls afterwards and uneasy about dealing with winter storms.