Roger Smith

Hello, I imagine your forum would start a 2019 hurricane season thread some time, so to get this announcement into an appropriate thread I have started one for you. Meanwhile ... Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/ 2019 tropical season forecast contest thread open.

Well, for the reason you mention, I do see some chance that the result will be based on a steady humid heat of less than record breaking intensity, but some factors lead me to believe this may gradually transition to more memorable heat wave numbers by late July into August. I realize it has been very wet in parts of the Great Lakes and northeast, however, it would only take perhaps 2-3 weeks of warm dry weather in late June to set up a modified drought condition that could lead to 100+ days. Most memorable heat wave summers tend to come with pulses of record breaking heat and intervening near normal dry weather from a Pacific source. I guess that various factors mentioned by the two previous posters might argue for there being a more humid form of sustained heat in this case. The most likely form of bust for this forecast would be near normal temperatures and very wet. This would happen if heights don't build as expected but an interior western trough remains anchored over CO-NM.

I don't have any elaborate presentation prepared, just this bare bones condensed version of research model findings that indicate a very hot summer possible for most of the lower 48, if any region escapes it would be Montana-Idaho-PAC NW. Expecting this heat to build slowly in June and perhaps not affect anomalies that much until July and August. Could then turn into one of the all-time memorable heat wave summers. The usual precip anomaly pattern for such a summer is above normal rainfall in some parts of the northwest U.S., isolated portions of northern plains, northern Great Lakes (mostly on Canadian side) and into Quebec and northern New England. Also pockets of above normal rainfall likely from TX to FL. Otherwise below normal to drought conditions in parts of the northeast, Ohio valley, central plains. Somewhat more active tropical season than last year, hopefully nothing to match Michael's specific ferocity or going back a year Harvey's rainfall production, but potential for one or two destructive landfalls in the Gulf region, and by September in the eastern seaboard. Just wondering then if others see this potential or do you have other ideas about the outcome for summer 2019?

(edited previous content) 0730z - Reading reports on line of major damage to Jefferson City, MO and nearby Fort Leonard Wood, from large tornado. Also hearing that the Joplin storm resulted in at least three fatalities.

What kind of North Atlantic tropical cyclone season do you predict for 2019? Our annual contest asks you to predict the total number of storms, and break it down by months. As you know, the "count" is total number of named storms, then total number of those that become hurricanes, and finally total number of hurricanes that become major (cat-3 or stronger). In 2017 the final count was 17/10/6 and our contest winner was Rockchalk83. In 2018 the final count was 15/8/2 and the contest winner was "A few Universes below normal" closely followed by UIWWildThing. Also in 2018, contest normal and the NHC mid-range forecast scored higher than any contest entrants. The rules are fairly simple. You need to post a seasonal total by the deadline which I am setting as June 1st but this could be extended a few days to increase the participation as long as no new named storms appear in early June. Your seasonal total should include any developments in May, and just as I thought of starting the contest, STS Andrea has appeared. The current forecasts for that cap it at 35 knots, so the count is already 1 0 0 for May. If there is further activity in May, that will be counted in the seasonal total too. But you don't have to predict anything for May, just add 1 0 0 for May in your forecast line. Your seasonal total will be adjusted if the monthly totals for your forecast when added up match your seasonal total but the 1 0 0 May portion changes. Contest normal will also change as that is based on the assumption that the 1989-2018 average used to create it applies to the defined season (this May activity is assumed to be extra to the normal values although May activity is becoming a fairly common occurrence recently). In 2017, all entrants gave monthly predictions and almost all left them unedited, but the contest rules allow you to submit these up to 06z of the first of each month, or to revise those already submitted by that deadline. Note, there is no requirement for your monthly numbers to add up to your seasonal numbers and you can use decimal points to express uncertainty. In 2018, one entrant (the eventual contest winner) submitted only a seasonal forecast. When that happens, I take a scaled version of contest normal that adds up to the entrant's seasonal totals. Those were fairly similar in that case so the entrant was playing off the contest normal basically, reduced by one IIRC. I am going to post my forecast mostly as a guide to how your forecast should appear (not the numbers but the format) ... Roger Smith ____ 18 12 4 ____ (May) 1 0 0 _ (Jun) 1 1 0 _ (Jul) 1 1 0 __ (Aug) 4 3 1 __ (Sep) 6 4 2 __ (Oct) 4 3 1 __ (Nov-Dec) 1 0 0 (this assumes a result of 1 0 0 May, would be adjusted to 19 12 4 if 2 0 0 or 19 13 4 if 2 1 0) The following are contest normals (adjusted for the May 1 0 0 ) and the current (amended June 5th when one storm and one hurricane added to April forecast) CSU and NHC mid-range forecasts below them. Note that the monthly forecasts for these are scaled down versions of the contest normals, they are not actual forecasts, only seasonal totals were predicted. This is for contest scoring comparisons. I am also going to track NHC high end of range as I suspect that may do better than their mid-range. I am not totally sure if their forecasts include the May activity or are meant to apply to June to November only, so having the high end forecast in play will perhaps cover that ambiguity. Contest Normal __16 8 3 ____ (May) 1 0 0 __ (Jun) 1 0 0 _ (Jul) 1 0 0 _ (Aug) 4 2 1 __ (Sep) 6 4 1 __ (Oct) 3 2 1 _ (Nov-Dec) 0 0 0 NHC (midrange) _ 12 6 3 ____ (May) 1 0 0 __ (Jun) 1 0 0 _ (Jul) 1 0 0 _ (Aug) 3 2 1 __ (Sep) 4 3 1 __ (Oct) 2 1 1 _ (Nov-Dec) 0 0 0 NHC (high end) __15 8 4 ____ (May) 1 0 0 __ (Jun) 1 0 0 _ (Jul) 1 0 0 _ (Aug) 4 2 1 __ (Sep) 5 4 2 __ (Oct) 3 2 1 _ (Nov-Dec) 0 0 0 CSU (Junel fcst) __13 6 2 ____ (May) 1 0 0 __ (Jun) 1 0 0 _ (Jul) 1 0 0 _ (Aug) 3 2 1 __ (Sep) 5 3 1 __ (Oct) 2 1 0 _ (Nov-Dec) 0 0 0 Scoring for the contest is as follows: 50% of the score is based on the seasonal. You start with 50 points and in each category, you lose half of (1 point per error plus that number squared). Example, you predict 16 storms, the actual is 19, your error is (3 + 3 squared)/2 = 12/2 = 6. If you had similar errors for hurricanes and majors, your total score would then be 32/50. The other 50% of the score is based on your monthly forecasts starting with June and ending with Nov-Dec. These are worth 4, 6, 12, 16, 10 and 2 points in order from June to Nov-Dec. Then the errors reduce your possible score in the same way as the seasonal formula, except that June, July and Nov-Dec go with half the reductions (in other words, you lose points at half the rate of the other more active months). In the past few years, highest scores in the contest have been close to 90 (dropping to 84 last year) and seasonal scores of 48 to 50 have been achieved. A good monthly set has earned scores totalling 41-43 points. Good luck if you enter. The deadline will be made more precise around June 1st and all entrants can edit up to the eventual deadline without notice, you can assume that I won't be copying down or storing any forecasts until a firm deadline is posted in the thread and up to that firm deadline, so no need to post new numbers, just edit the old ones. Once a table of entries appears, your numbers are set for the seasonal and June portions but you have the option of posting revised monthly numbers at any point during the contest before monthly deadlines. Late monthly revisions will be penalized at a rate of 10% per day but will not be valid after any named storm is declared in the month.

I'm thinking in retrospect the one weakness of the setup that forced it down from high risk outcome to more like moderate risk, was that the cold front was never aligned at much of an angle to the flow, and also with the upper dynamics so far back to the west, that allowed secondary heat low features to form in eastern NM that probably took a lot of energy out of the dry line. Even with those handicaps, the front managed to produce many severe cells and quite a few tornados. The warm front sector also underperformed by failing to push very far north of its morning position so that cells were having to deal with very cool temperatures almost immediately. In fact by about 23z there really wasn't any classic warm sector look to this at all, it was just one long wavy front from north of Tulsa to south of Midland TX. This is one endeavour where a bust is actually a good thing for 99.9% of the population. It's only us weather enthusiasts who might see it as a bad thing.

TRAVEL WEST OF GUTHRIE ALONG HIGHWAY 114 IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. Could they not get a couple of cops to block the road? The cell has been developing for about an hour.

Maybe we're relying a bit too much on exit polling here. I would say up to this point in time this has been a moderate risk type outcome, but it's only going to require one of these cells to beef up and hit a populated area to change perceptions, whether that is totally related to verification or not. How do we know for example that some of those shots near Mangum OK weren't showing an F4 over a farmland area where it could proceed for several minutes without hitting anything substantial, yet on another day, the same funnel cloud hits a subdivision or a town and leaves a much different memory. Also there's still 2-3 hours of time before this is even likely to start decreasing in intensity. The dry line has just been hanging out west of Plainview and Lubbock all afternoon, when it turns a bit and starts pushing, then the dynamics for this may improve for a short time before the MCS or squall line outcome takes over and that in itself may be a fairly severe event for OKC.

We're only around half time in this outbreak, if that, so would not be writing any obits for it yet. Storm outflow at LBB (airport is nne of city) was gusting to 55 knots southeast at the same time (2121z) as severe warned radar echoes about 5 miles east and 8 miles south of location, telling me that the storm to the south was increasing in strength then. As others stated earlier, dry line is encroaching on storm zone here and south now, expect some strong development next three or four hours. Eventually I think it morphs into a massive MCS with possible squall line for central and eastern OK throughout the night. That would mean less severe but more widespread damage than a tornadic scenario but that would develop first in western OK. Clinton may be close to the eventual peak of tornadic activity before the MCS phase begins. I will predict developing MCS passage at OKC at or about 03z (10 pm CDT). Clinton south to about Hobart OK max tornadic risk about 00z to 01z (7-8 p.m. CDT).

I assume May 20 is the first high risk? If so, congrats to rolltide_130 who said May 24, and OKstorm with May 4. Third closest was freshgeek at April 30th. All other guesses were mostly in April, one was for late March and a few said no high risk. Minnesota_storms had April 26th but added EF5 for May 23rd (remains to be seen later today?). My remaining chance at success in this thread rests on the above consensus seasonal total (which was not quite the highest one offered). I don't know how that's going.

For validation, what does 60% tornado risk mean? If it means 60% chance of a tornado occurring in the watch area, that seems too low (but other products indicate a 95% chance which also seems 5% too low ). If it means 60% of the watch area will experience a tornado, that seems statistically too high, depending on what is meant by "experience a tornado" -- if it means 60% of the watch zone will be converted to tornado warning boxes then perhaps that comes close to reality here (and we all know that within any given tornado warning box there will likely be a 10-20 per cent conversion to tornado conditions along an actual track within that box).

Since we have this thread emerging from the rubble of the main thread, I would suggest to the OP or a moderator to edit this thread title to May 20 2019 High Risk TX-OK outbreak or something similar. Will repeat the basic overview of a post that I made in the other thread. The dynamics for this event actually continue to increase well beyond the daytime heating period so I would look for this major outbreak to sustain well into the overnight as it moves out of the TX panhandle into western and even central OK. Main threat will be later afternoon when dry line catches up to developing cold front now in TX panhandle to Midland-Odessa region. Dry line potential is high as shown by 20F dew points in east-central NM. Numerous supercells can be expected in vicinity of cold front and dry line especially when they get less separation under accelerating flow from west at upper levels. Some similarity to the Goodland KS situation only further south in this instance. Somewhere between Clinton OK and Wichita Falls TX might be location of most severe storm(s) of this outbreak but anywhere between Amarillo and OKC south into Wichita Falls region at high risk.

The main significance of that clearing would be that it allows rapid heating of the surface layers in the warm sector developing over a region south of Lubbock TX. Perhaps more ominous is the clearing in east central NM on your image, that represents the zone between the cold front (currently lying across s.e. NM into far western panhandles of TX and OK) and the eventual dry line feature. In this set-up, what normally happens is that the cold front becomes the focus for some supercell development by mid-afternoon, with the dry line accelerating and catching up to it, causing explosive development. Either the dry line becomes a primary focus for severe storms by the peak stages (which I think will be quite late in the day given the dynamics) or the dry line essentially merges with the cold front with the same result. Looking at the current guidance, the dry line will likely form over eastern NM by about 20z with the cold front approaching an AMA-LBB-MAF line. Then both will accelerate east but the dry line looks likely to be sweeping through the TX panhandle to reach western OK by 03z with the cold front then only 50-100 miles east of it. Would suggest that the result will be two lines of supercells, the first one associated with cold front having more development into the Wichita Falls to Abilene region compared to the dry line where the development may cut off a bit further north (Childress possibly). Meanwhile some severe storms will form out ahead of all that near the warm front which looks likely to stall near the OK-KS border and rotate slowly north into south central KS. My guess as to most severe potential would be Lubbock to Clinton OK. ============================================================ Here's a rough graphic of the air mass boundaries to be expected and the air mass characteristics ... valid for late afternoon with maximum heating potential realized. COOL DRY AIR MASS... DL .. P .... CF ... mT temps 65-72 ..........// .. 85-95 .. // ..... 83-88 dp 20-30 .......... // .. 50-60 .. // ..... 70-75 So in that schematic you have the dry line, P for "polar" air mass (an old term, think of it as Pacific origin transitional air mass that can be quite warm under subtropical sun angles) then the cold front (CF) and the mT (maritime tropical) air mass (moist Gulf air now in place over most of TX and OK). The P sector between the tropical air and the cooler air with much lower dew points (Ruidoso NM already has dew points below 20 F) will become very windy by afternoon (WSW 40G60) with winds in the warm sector continuing more like SSW 20-30. Every actual situation has its own little variations from this sort of statistical average. In today's outbreak, what I noticed was that the upper dynamics become much stronger in the interval from 00z to 06z, with the upper level low crossing most of NM in that time frame and forcing the dynamics ahead to become more ominous. So once the daytime heating cycle comes to a close, this situation will actually be ramping up (something like this happened with the Goodland KS event) and the peak will likely be after dark. Rather than southwest KS in this case I would flag the western third of OK, eastern half of TX panhandle and some adjacent parts of TX around Wichita Falls for the most damaging storm potential. Let's hope they stay over open country.

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-May 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL RodneyS ________________ 285 _398 _380__1063 __322 _330 _422__1074__2137__355 _334 _288 __ 977 ___3114 DonSutherland.1 __________281 _424 _320 __1025 __286 _276 _406 __ 968 __ 1993 __ 319 _358_312__ 989___2982 ___ Consensus ___________ 325_432_360 __1117__314 _274 _382 __ 970 __ 2087 __ 279 _290 _248 __ 817 ___2904 wxdude64 _______________321 _403 _351 __1075 __345 _238 _365 __ 948 __ 2023 __ 284 _281 _213 __ 778____ 2801 wxallannj ________________316 _366 _372 __1054 __252 _334_376 __ 962 __2016 __ 226 _294 _226 __ 746 ____2762 hudsonvalley21 ___________277 _432 _376__1085 __274 _292 _368 __ 934 __2019 __ 191 _300 _244 __ 735 ____2754 Roger Smith _____________ 318 _360 _348 __1026 __222 _244 _356 __ 822 __1848 __ 331 _246 _258 __ 835 ____2683 BKViking ________________ 327 _430 _358 __1115__285 _228 _343 __ 856 __1971 __ 231 _240 _211 __ 682 ____2653 Tom ____________________233 _392 _292 ___917 __ 370 _176 _382 __ 928 __1845 __209 _272 _228 __ 709 ____2554 Scotty Lightning ___________275 _392 _368 __1035 __270 _272 _366 __ 908 __1943 __ 146 _236 _214 __ 596 ____2539 ___ Normal ______________ 212 _412 _340 __ 964 __ 298 _170 _376 __ 844 __1808 __ 165 _323 _191 __ 679 ____2487 Stebo (4/5) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __1656 __ 227 _217 _125 __ 569 ____2225 RJay (4/5) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __1353 __ 263 _279 _188 __ 730 ____2083 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine). _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ MAR wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN Roger Smith ____________ 3 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0 BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts STANDINGS to date in 2019 RodneyS ____________ 9-3 Roger Smith _________ 8-3 DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0 Scotty Lightning ______ 3-0 Normal __________ 3-0 Stebo ______________ 3-1 wxallannj ____________2-1 hudsonvalley21 _______1-0 RJay ________________1-0 Tom ________________1-1 ______________________________________________________________________________

Final scoring for May 2019 These scores are based on confirmed end of month anomalies in the previous post. DCA will remain on normal scoring as RodneyS scored 64. Scoring progression is used for ATL, DEN and PHX (forecasters score at least 60,52,44,36,28,20,12,06,00 in each case replaced by actual raw score if that were higher). These scores are in play for ATL where RodneyS has a raw score of 49 and DEN where RodneyS has a raw score of 47 also. The projection at PHX is even more drastic (-5.0), DonS (-0.1) had a raw score of 1 point for lowest forecast, and everyone else zero, so the progression certainly is needed there. FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTAL (all nine) RodneyS __________________ 64 _ 96 _82 __242__ 92_ 60_ 88__240__ 482 __ 60 _ 52 _ 64 __ 176_____ 658 DonSutherland1 ____________ 34 _ 78 _ 94__ 206 __ 74 _ 44 _ 94__212 __ 418 __ 44 _ 60 _ 16 __ 120 _____ 538 wxallannj __________________54 _ 52 _ 70 __ 176 __ 64 _ 52 _ 68__190 __ 366 __ 20 _ 44 _ 66 __ 130 _____ 496 ____ Consensus ____________ 36 _ 76 _ 88 __ 200 __ 68 _ 28 _ 72__174 __ 374 __ 28 _ 28 _ 46 __ 102 _____ 476 BKViking __________________ 42 _ 76 _ 92 __ 210__ 58 _ 20 _ 78__156 __ 366 __ 12 _ 36 _ 50 __ 098 _____ 464 Tom ______________________38 _ 64 _ 68 __ 170 __ 74 _ 36 _ 76__186 __ 356 __ 36 _ 06 _ 26 __ 068 _____ 424 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 26 _ 72 _ 84 __ 182 __ 62 _ 28 _ 86__176 __ 358 __ 06 _ 28 _ 24 __ 058 _____ 416 ____ Normal _______________ 00 _ 96 _ 98 __194 __ 78 _ 00 _ 66__144 __ 338 __ 00 _ 52 _ 10 __ 072 _____ 410 wxdude64 _________________ 36 _ 56 _ 60 __ 162 __ 56 _ 09 _ 70__135 __ 287 __ 28 _ 28 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 397 Scotty Lightning _____________20 _ 86 _ 88 __ 194 __ 68 _ 12 _ 96 __176 __370 __ 00 _ 12 _ 10 __ 022 _____ 392 Roger Smith _______________ 00 _ 80 _ 72 __ 152 __ 92 _00 _ 42 __134 __ 286 __ 52 _ 00 _ 46 __ 098 _____ 384 ______________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts for May 2019 Eight locations qualify. For DCA (+5.0) RodneyS (+3.2) has a win. For NYC (-0.2) RodneyS (0.0) has a win and Roger Smith (-1.2) has a loss. For BOS (-0.1) third lowest forecast has high score so BOS does not qualify. For ORD (-1.1), RodneyS and Roger Smith tie for a win with shared lowest forecasts (-1.5). For ATL, RodneyS has high forecast (+3.1) with the finish at +6.3. For IAH, Scotty Lightning has the win with high forecast (+1.5) which is cooler than the final value of +1.8. For DEN, RodneyS (-2.1) has the win with coldest forecast, final value is -5.5. For PHX, DonSutherland1 (-0.1) with coldest forecast has a win as the outcome is -5.9. For SEA, wxallannj (+2.8) with warmest forecast has a win with the result +4.5.

My move has come to a generally successful conclusion (I have internet anyway) ... so here's an update and the first projections of the month. ____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____ (anom 7 d) _____+6.7 _--0.4 _--2.1 ___ --4.6 _+6.6 _+1.5 ___ --1.4 _--1.4 _+4.0 _____ (anom 17d) ____ +2.8 _--2.3 _--2.5 ___ --3.4 _+4.0 _--0.3 ___ --1.2 _--2.2 _+5.7 _____ (anom 24d) _____+3.7 _--0.8 _--0.3 ___ --2.6 _+5.2 _+1.3 ___ --5.6 _--5.3 _+4.8 _____ (p24 d) ________+3.5 _--0.5 _--0.8 ___ --1.8 _+5.0 _+1.0 ___ --2.3 _--2.5 _+4.0 18th_ (p31 d) ________ +3.0 _--0.5_--1.0 ___ --1.5 _+4.0 _+1.5 ___ --2.0 _--1.5 _+3.0 25th_ (p31 d) ________ +5.0 _+0.5_+0.5 ___ --1.0 _+6.0 _+2.0 ___ --4.5 _--5.0 _+3.5 1st _ final anomalies __ +5.0 _--0.2 _--0.1 ___--1.1 _+6.3 _+1.7 ___ --5.5 _--5.9 _+4.5 (25th) _ The previous week was well predicted by NWS (except for DEN where snow probably lowered the temperatures more than predicted) but the coming week was not well handled in the GFS 8-14 day outlook from 18th, now it's more of a heat wave showing up in the east, especially for DCA and ATL, so anomalies are pushed up considerably for end of month there. (June 1st) _ Final anomalies are now posted and scoring adjusted where necessary.

Just for interest, these are the all-time record highs at the four main airport locations (or nearby for older records): BWI _ 107 on July 10, 1936 DCA _ 106 on July 20, 1930 and Aug 6, 1918 IAD _ 105 on July 22, 2011 (shorter period of record does not overlap the dates above) RIC _ 107 on Aug 6, 1918 (Interesting that Toronto has the same dates for its July and August records, 105 on 8th to 10th July 1936 and 102 on 7th of Aug 1918 ... the records shown above were almost matched on August 7, 1918). (and yes I think my forecast of very hot summer temperatures will extend as far north as NYC including PA -- I will edit my numbers down by 1 deg after seeing these stats).

Anomalies after first week +6.7 _ --0.4 _ --2.1 __ --4.6 _ +6.6 _ +1.5 ___ --1.4 _ --1.4 _ +4.0 (trends look broadly similar, will not have much time to update this thread until later parts of the month, moving house in the next week or so)

Ah good to see this is happening. I foresee a very hot summer developing and perhaps some near-record temperatures. (edit down 1 deg after checking all-time records) BWI 107 DCA 106 IAD 105 RIC 108 HGR 104

Table of forecasts for May 2019 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RodneyS __________________ +3.2__0.0_--1.0 _ --1.5_+3.1_+1.1 ___ --2.1__0.0_+2.7 wxallannj __________________ +2.7_+2.2_+1.4 _ +0.7_+2.8_+0.4 ___ --0.3_+0.1_+2.8 BKViking __________________ +2.1_+1.0_+0.3 _ +1.0_+1.3_+0.6 ___ --0.2_+0.2_+2.0 Tom ______________________ +1.9_+1.6_+1.5 _ +0.2_+2.2_+0.5 ___ --0.8_+0.6_+0.8 wxdude64 _________________ +1.8_+2.0_+1.9 _ +1.1_+0.9_+0.2 ___ --0.6_+0.3_+2.2 ____ Consensus ____________ +1.8_+1.0_+0.5 _ +0.5_+1.9_+0.6 ___ --0.6_+0.3_+1.8 DonSutherland1 _____________ +1.7_+0.9_+0.2 _ +0.2_+2.3_+1.4 ___ --1.0_--0.1_+0.3 hudsonvalley21 _____________ +1.3_+1.2_+0.7 _ +0.8_+1.9_+1.0 ___ --0.1_+0.3_+0.7 Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0_+0.5_+0.5 _ +0.5_+1.0_+1.5 ____ 0.0_+0.5__0.0 ____ Normal ________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 Roger Smith _______________ --1.0_--1.2_--1.5 _ --1.5_--0.7_--1.2 ___ --2.0_+2.7_+1.8 Seasonal Max contest for 2019 Roger Smith _______________ 107 _ 104 _ 105 __ 103 _ 101 _ 101 __ 104 _ 120 _ 100 wxdude64 _________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 __ 100 __ 99 _ 104 __ 102 _ 118 __ 95 Scotty Lightning ____________ 102 _ 100 __ 98 ___ 96 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 95 _ 117 __ 93 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 103 __ 100 _ 116 __ 94 BKViking __________________ 100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 100 _ 117 __ 94 DonSutherland1 _____________100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 98 _ 117 __ 93 Tom _______________________99 __ 99 __ 96 ___100 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 97 RodneyS ___________________ 99 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 95 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92 wxallannj ___________________ 97 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 100 __ 100 _ 116 __ 95