Roger Smith

Season is probably done but maybe not, eastern Gulf storm looks almost tropical storm, and westward moving low in subtropics could be a stat padder (for me anyway).

If for any reason it cooled down on an epic scale (volcanic dust, solar downturns, unknown cause and effect) we would begin to be glad for AGW signal, it could save our society considerable stress. But nobody is predicting it would work out so. It would probably rain even greater values, be cloudy all day, and around 1961-90 averages. Sort of like a worst case scenario but not too cold to survive.

Top 15 December precip at NYC over 1 day (snowfall included, gives a measure of QPF) and top 24 to last year's Dec 22-23 event and eventual 2-day for all one-day events listed. 20" snow Dec 26-27 2010 yielded 1.61" liquid equivalent. Note top two on list are both on Dec 13. Ranks 6 and 8 are on Dec 11. (added Dec 17-18 2023) Rank ___ 1-day ___ Date _________ (snow if any) _____ max, min temps (F) _01 ____ 3.09 _____ Dec 13, 1909 (1.0" snow) _____ 53, 33 _02 ____ 2.97 _____ Dec 13, 1941 (0.3" snow) _____ 46, 27 _03 ____ 2.54 _____ Dec 9, 2014 (1.0" snow 10th) _ 42, 36 _04 ____ 2.52 _____ Dec 29, 1901^_________________ 55, 44 _05 ____ 2.49 _____ Dec 21, 1973 (Tr snow) _______ 57, 25 (Dec 20-21 o/n warm) _06 ____ 2.41 _____ Dec 11, 1992 __________________ 42,37 _07 ____ 2.36 _____ Dec 26, 1947 (26.4" snow) ___ 31, 25 _08 ____ 2.35 _____ Dec 11, 2008 _________________ 43, 37 _09 ____ 2.28 _____ Dec 17, 1888 _________________ 55, 50 _10 ____ 2.25 _____ Dec 16, 1974 __________________47, 38 _11 ____ 2.22 _____ Dec 14, 1897 __________________ 53, 45 _12 ____ 2.21 _____ Dec 18, 2023 __________________ 62, 42 _13 ____ 2.19 _____ Dec 9, 1973 ___________________ 55, 37 _14 ____ 2.18 _____ Dec 22, 1983 (0.6" snow) _____ 53, 31 _15 ____ 2.16 _____ Dec 2, 1974 ___________________ 50, 39 _16 ____ 1.98 _____ Dec 7, 1908 ___________________ 57, 38 (next top contender large snowfall was Dec 20, 1874, 1.92 incl 10.0" snow) (Dec 26-27 2010 20" snow reduced to 1.61" precip) Rank ___2-day ____Dates _______________________ Temps _01 ____ 3.62 ____ Dec 12-13, 1983 ______________ temps in 53-59 range for rainfall portion _02 ____ 3.29 ____ Dec 13-14, 1909 (1.0" snow) __ 53, 33 and 53, 40 _03 ____ 3.28 ____ Dec 11-12, 2008 ______________ 43, 37 and 44, 32 _04 ____ 3.03 ____ Dec 13-14, 1941 ______________ 46, 27 and 46, 33 _05 ____ 2.96 ____ Dec 29-30, 1901 ______________ 55, 44 and 45, 34 _06*____ 2.94 ____ Dec 30-31, 1948 (4.0" snow)__57, 52 and 52, 25 _07 ____ 2.87 ____ Dec 11-12, 1992** (0.4" snow)_42, 37 and 43, 32 _08*____ 2.73 ____ Dec 2-3, 1986 ________________ 53, 35 and 59, 46 _09 ____ 2.65 ____ Dec 20-21, 1973 (Tr snow) ____54, 25 and 57, 25 (Dec 20-21 o/n warm) _10 ____ 2.62 ____ Dec 9-10, 2014 (1.0" snow) ___ 42, 36 and 40, 32 _11*____ 2.61 ____ Dec 6-7, 1996 (Tr snow) _______46, 35 and 45, 34 _12 ____ 2.58 ____ Dec 1-2 1974^ _(Tr snow) _____ 42, 33 and 50, 39 _13 ____ 2.47 ____ Dec 17-18, 2023 ______________ 59, 47 and 62, 42 _14 ____ 2.40 ____ Dec 26-27, 1947 (26.4" snow) _31, 25 and 35, 29 _15*____ 2.36 ____ Dec 14-15, 1981 (1.4" snow) __ 37, 29 and 38, 35 _16 ____ 2.33 ____ Dec 17-18, 1888 _______________55, 50 and 52, 29 _17 ____ 2.28 _____ Dec 14-15, 1897 ______________53, 45 and 57, 47 _18*____ 2.25 _____ Dec 9-10, 1878 (0.5" snow) __46, 33 and 60, 46 _19*____ 2.24 _____ Dec 7-8, 1914 (0.5" snow) ___ 36, 32 and 36, 30 (presumably a lot of snow not far away) _20 ____ 2.21 _____ Dec 22-23, 1983 (0.8" snow) _ 53, 31 and 41, 22 (6, 4 next 2d min) _21 ____(2.19" Dec 9 1973 no additional amounts Dec 8 or 10) _22 ____ 2.13 _____ Dec 3-4, 1925 _______________ 49, 39 and 51, 46 _23 ____ 2.08 _____Dec 19-20, 1936 (Tr snow) ___48, 23 and 55, 34 _24 ____2.06 _____ Dec 22-23, 2022 (Tr snow) __47, 35 and 58, 8 (max 15 min 7 on Dec 24) _25 ____2.03 _____ Dec 6-7, 1908 _______________ 43, 26 and 57, 38 * (to rank 21, all 2-day contenders except ranks 6, 8, 11, 15, 18 and 19 are also in one-day table. Rank 6 is 1.54" + 1.40" ... Rank 8 is 1.62"+1.11" ... Rank 11 is 1.20"+1.41" ... Rank 15 is 1.02" + 1.34" ... Rank 18 is 0.63"+1.62" ... Rank 19 is (0.25"+)1.81"+0.43") note, a 3rd significant Dec-1983 value of 1.97" for Dec 3-4, 1983. ** 3.31" total Dec 10-12 1992 ... 2.85 Dec 10-11 1992 2-day is not counted as separate entry but ranks 8, if all cases are considered. Same applies to 2.62" Dec 10-11, 2008. 2.95" fell Dec 28-30 1942 but Dec 29 value of 0.39" (1.22+0.39+1.34) _ no qualifying 2-d totals. ___________________________________________

Yes, I edited post after you quoted it. Discussion is on page 9 of forum list of topics.

Yes, it was also a very cold winter in Britain, after a very warm year (1779) that provides warmest Feb even now after 2.5 centuries. Sure you also know about extreme snowfalls in Feb-mar 1717.

Recall Binghamton NY getting 40" of snow at same time of year a few years ago. It was Dec 17, 2020. There was a thread started by wdrag about this storm on Dec 11, 2020 and it was a fairly widespread snowfall event as it turned out.

There are some records in N America going back into the 18th century, if you want to see some detailed examples have a look in climate change forum for a thread on Toronto and NYC climate stats, Toronto goes back to 1840 and I found a station at Providence RI going back to 1831. A summary of that location's daily records 1831-60 gives a basic overview that supports the idea parts of 19th century could have been slightly warmer (than 1871-1900) but not as warm as last 30-40 yrs. UK "Central England Temperature" series goes further back, a period between 1710 and 1739 is almost as warm as mid-20th century and about 0.5 C cooler than more recent decades. The interval from 1659 to 1709 was colder than any later intervals, 1684 to 1709 in particular very cold (this is the later part of the maunder minimum). Before that we only have tree ring records and such, together with anecdotal reports about extremes. Some believe 1540 could have been a summer like 2022 in Europe for drought and extreme heat. It was recorded that the Rhine almost dried up and heat was described as severe leading to deaths. Perhaps of significance, this was a very active solar period between two lower intervals, the Sporer minimum of the 15th century, and the maunder minimum. There is also the well known postulate that severe drought caused major cultural shifts in the southwestern U.S., such as the migration of the formerly dominant Anasazi people in the "four corners" region. This is dated to 1150-1200 A.D. Climate change is real but it isn't new. A region between Chad and Libya used to have a lush savanna climate and a lake fed a now-extinct river, the "Yellow Nile" that flowed east to join the Nile near where the other two sources of the Nile ("white" and "blue" Niles) now combine in Sudan. That river stopped flowing about six thousand years ago and people in that region had to migrate to find reliable water sources. But there are small lakes left and even a remnant population of wildlife including a few crocs and hippos, in a desert oasis setting now. That climate change was related to the final drying up and disappearance of Lake Lahontan in the great basin region. All that's left of formerly gigantic Lake Lahontan are a half dozen salt lakes and plenty of other seasonal dry lakes scattered across Nevada and Utah. As recently as 17,000 years ago, when the Laurentide glaciers were still near their full extent, the climate of Nevada was about like south-central B.C. nowadays, with reliable rainfall and probably a much colder winter.

GFS develops a large blocking high over Quebec reaching central pressures over 1050 and that could play a role in storm development after 20th. Pattern does not look torched, lows forming in central plains states would be prone to coastal redevelopment if that high were longer lasting. But it's more of a mixed or freezing rain signal for interior regions of NY and NE than a snowfall indicator. I continue to look to Dec 26-27 as timing for major storm development.

Greatest winter since 2021-22 anyway ...

Another history note on Dec 11, 1944 .. Toronto had its heaviest calendar day snowfall, 19 inches, with 3 additional after 00h a total of 22" fell, second only to 23" in Dec (25-26) 1872 during easterly winds in frigid weather, that one was a lake effect event.

*** __ 2023-2024 Winter Snowfall Contest __ *** Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV wxdude64 ____________________________22.9 _ 30.2 _ 44.6 __ 22.2 _ 31.5 _ 88.3 ___ 54.3 __ 7.8 __ 71.4 RJay _________________________________ 22.0 _ 30.0 _ 44.0 __ 20.0 _ 25.0 _ 99.0 ___ 61.0 __ 4.0 __ 80.0 BKViking _____________________________ 19.0 _ 28.0 _ 37.0 __ 20.0 _ 17.0 __ 95.0 ___ 59.0 __ 4.1 __ 86.0 wxallannj _____________________________ 19.0 _ 27.0 _ 30.0 __ 38.0 _ 35.0 _ 97.0 ___ 41.0 __ 9.0 __ 75.0 Tom ___________________________________18.7 _ 32.6 _ 44.7 __ 37.2 _ 34.6 _ 97.8 ___ 51.6 __ 4.1 __ 73.2 Roger Smith __________________________ 18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 _ 89.2 ___ 45.0 __ 3.0 __79.3 ___ Consensus ____ (median) __________18.5 _ 27.0 _ 37.0 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 89.2 ___ 54.3 __ 4.1 __ 77.0 so_whats_happening __________________18.0 _ 26.0 _ 41.0 __ 28.0 _ 35.0 _ 78.0 ___ 40.0 __ 7.0 __ 87.0 Scotty Lightning ______________________ 16.0 _ 21.0 _ 33.0 __ 43.0 _ 31.0 _103.0 ___ 41.0 __ 5.0 __ 86.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________________ 12.0 _ 31.0 _ 30.5 __ 33.5 _ 32.5 _ 68.5 ___ 59.5 __ 5.5 __ 77.0 DonSutherland1 _______________________ 11.5 _ 15.0 _ 27.5 ___27.0 _ 38.5 _ 85.0 ___ 56.5 __ 1.2 ___70.0 RodneyS _______________________________ 6.7 _ 12.9 _ 24.3 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 79.9 ___ 65.4 __ 3.9 __ 64.3 ====================================== Will add snowfall to date around end of Dec -- good luck !

Not many U.S. stations go back into 1840s and 1850s, Toronto does, and you notice right away that winters in the 1840s were generally milder than in any decade until perhaps the 1930s, also snowfall tends to peak for Toronto around 1870. Winters were generally quite severe until the 1920s when a more modern trend began. I would not expect to find any location with similar temperatures in 1870s to 1890s as in recent times, it was generally quite a cold period, 1875, 1883 and 1888 are probably the three coldest years on record in any locations that observed back then. 1904 was also a very cold year. Personally while I acknowledge the science behind climate change I think we just happened to peak in fossil fuel output at the worst possible time when natural variability was swinging towards its own peak. If we weren't here, a lot of these trends would still be in evidence. We are just making things a bit worse. Perhaps we will catch a break and run into a cooling trend on the natural variability side. Some thought it would happen with the solar downturn (which seems to be over already) but strong El Nino events like 2015-16 overwhelmed that possibility. It will snow again, I don't believe the shift is that great, one encouraging sign, I just updated a data base for arctic Canada and winter 2022-23 was colder than almost all winters since 1970 and fairly similar to averages before 1970. This current winter is not as cold so far in the arctic regions.

Probably a case of non-accumulating flurries 0300-0900h 11th (mon) in metro NYC, to 1-3" parts of NJ, with the rapid temp fall, black ice conditions for morning commute in outlying parts of n NJ, hudson valley and w CT. I would be more concerned about ice than snow for road safety issues.

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): (1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread. (2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available... http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): (1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread. (2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available... http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): (1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread. (2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available... http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): (1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread. (2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available... http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Extension of map of recent winter warming into central and n Canada would likely display similar values into arctic islands. At Cambridge Bay on Victoria Island, average of coldest winter mo is up from -35 C to -32 C comparing 1991-2020 data to 1961-1990. Summers are about 1 C warmer now. Snow free season was mid-June to early September and is now late may to mid-September at location (near 70 N). It's a similar story at Resolute located about 500 miles n.e. in central arctic islands. Warming in region not quite as pronounced as data from Svalbard or n Russia but about 2/3 as extreme. Even so, a lot of variability year to year, NWPassage opens up to recreational sailing vessels about 3/4 of summers now but a few recent years were "no passage" -- normally if July means exceed 9 C at YCB and 5 C at YRB, NWPassage will open, and if not, ice will clog straits all of Aug-Sep (normal open season). Back in mid-20century it was considered rare for NWPassage to become ice free.

Speaking of 1888, apparently NYC residents of the time got weather forecasts in the daily papers, sent by telegraph from DC, but the blizzard brought down the wires in between DC and NY, and the forecast didn't arrive on the morning of the storm. All they knew was a rain changing to snow event was due in, as per the previous forecast, but no word on severity, which was actually in the forecast never received. This could be why by 1895 the weather bureau opened a forecast office in New York.

People were shorter in 1888, perhaps it wasn't under-measured.

We have a lower range to our west and there is a slight chinook effect in the Columbia valley, but it never gets above 50F here in any winter patterns, at least not before late Feb. I saw on Spokane news on TV in local lounge it was 52F today in GEG and CDA, and rivers are in flood around Portland OR where somebody drowned while out for a walk in a park. Our snow is running off fairly steadily and there won't be any left below our elevation by Tuesday afternoon at this rate. Almost a warm rain at moment, 46F.

Nasty up my way, snow turned to rain and it's very slick on regional roads especially above my elevation of 3500' ... temp warmed from 20s to 40s today and it's quite foggy.

Well I had a look (I participate in those contests) and apparently herb @ maws won the 2009-10 contest, the website does not preserve details but given 15-20 were usually in these contests, herb probably forecast close to what happened. I managed to win 2010-2011 and 2011-12 which surprised me since 2011-12 was probably a very snow-deficient winter but I do vaguely recall predicting a mild winter on Eastern wx before we got going here. I was going to plug the ne-wx site and will do it now, follow that link above and check it out. Don Sutherland (NYC) routinely does very well in storm forecasts.

From an earlier post, these are averages of the past contest winters: averages 2014/2015-2022/2023 ___ 14.5 __ 9.8 __ 15.8 __ 8.3 ___ (total 48.4) past seven avg (2016/17- 22/23) ____ 9.5 __ 6.9 __ 10.3 __ 6.7 ___ (total 33.4)

GFS run looks similar to Dec 1967, stayed mild to about 22nd and flipped to cold, very cold first two weeks of Jan 1968. I don't foresee entire winter staying mild like last winter, more of an oscillating pattern, some colder spells. Still believe an energy peak around Dec 26-27 could be a snowstorm scenario. Looking at 16d GFS (Dec 19), if actual pattern resembled it, would expect closed low to drop from PAC NW to TX and storm would form in eastern Gulf. If not sufficient blocking to N, NE of NY-PA, could be a strong cutter instead. Anyway, some kind of active wx likely Dec 26-27.