nrgjeff

The Bering Sea giveth and taketh. If we keep a longer wavelength and +ABNA the Bering Sea trough is actually bearish. Above normal heights and temps northeast China and Canada. Mild much of Eastern China and the Eastern USA. Sorry I'm so bearish today. I do agree with some back door front action after Thanksgiving. Helps northeast Tenn. You know my forecast for KCHA, lol!

Unfortunately the Wall St. Journal does not offer a comparison to Mt. Pinatubo 1992 which was the last aerosol event to actually impact temperatures. Carry on with much above normal temps this winter. Strato vortex is really locked up tight.

I share some of Fred's thoughts and concerns above. However I'm hoping it's not wall-to-wall severe. While I love a good Pains chase, I really don't like this crap in Dixie - especially trying to shelter my family at 1am. The pattern Fred describes is my secondary pattern for the winter and spring outlook. Trough comes through the Plains. Depending on the lingering SER severe weather would be favored in Hoosier Alley, Dixie Alley, or both. He covers the hemispheric situation. I'm talking the synoptic troughs. We saw this at times in October, but without much incident. Same deal in late winter or early spring would be impactful. Fortunately my primary pattern is the current one, influenced by the stubborn +ABNA. Warm northeast China. Trough Aleutians, Bering Sea, sometimes GOA. AN heights and temps much of eastern Canada. AN stuff bleeds into Great Lakes USA. Leaves the Southeast near normal heights. Temps would be above, but no big systems or low-amp troughs with moisture. Could be low-amp cloudy drink more coffee days. I'm one of the severe wx enthusiasts here, but I also got a family here and know we have some members who hate severe wx. While I do agree spring will be active, I have no reason to forecast anything historic. To quote Spann, severe wx is normal and we'll get through it.

Agree with Holston above. Nothing encouraging here https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/glbcir.quick.shtml where I check for pressure and heights. Arctic is locked up. All weekly products are a blowtorch as well. Eh, I'll take sunny at any temperature.

Let's go a head and issue a Slight Risk for Grumpy Bunch of Posters. Upside is Moderate but maybe we can still salvage basketball. Actually the ensembles are Enhanced Risk already. Cancelled the cold, other than brief fronts with near seasonable cold. Guess just go with the weeklies.

Welcome @BrookeM and enjoy the forum. We have a Garden thread. Can anybody help with the irrigation question above? All I know how to do is kill plants with my brown thumb, lol! In true banter, I lament the KC Chiefs are once again not on TV here. On the bright side their defense can't give me a fourth quarter heart attack on TV.

Welcome @Blue Moon and jump right in! This sub-form Tennessee Valley of American Weather is one of my favorite places for weather discussion.

1. The post Thanksgiving cold looks brief now. Combo of MJO and NWP. 2. The solar flare means go to Alaska and chase the Aurora. Single flare doesn't mean much more. 3. If we go into split flow after Thanksgiving it could be cloudy. Please no!

Numerical models are trying to go colder after Thanksgiving. This is after the seasonable front next week. I'm talking 16-30 day hints with the MJO. MJO is going to be fickle for a few days though. Tropical Cyclones are active and or forecast in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. TCs typically create volatility in MJO forecasts.

Researchers are notorious for throwing up theory on Twitter with no operational forecast implications. I read tight polar vortex. That's a mild signal. Maybe I just see everything as warmer than normal winter news. Some folks were asking/hoping the fire smoke would be a useful aerosol. Probably not enough of it, believe it or not. 1. Anthony is really good at operational forecasting, but can't share directly, due to his job. 2. Butler is amazing and will share implications occasionally, but only in her own threads.

Canada has above normal precip. If it's snow then it's a decent North American signal. However the Asian side sux blowtorch just like here.

Chattanooga was lit this weekend. Enjoyed a couple nice local hikes.

European Monthly charts are pretty warm most of winter. December has a small Southeast US cold cluster; but, the Western Canada source region is on fire. February and March are endless SER. Hopefully the overnight severe is up in Hoosier Alley. January appears to the best shot at a good secondary pattern. Clusters are below. The 48% has blocking and a path to deliver at least seasonably cold Arctic air. That'd do it! I'm assuming these are available to the public now. If not, please to not re-share. Certainly no commercial use. OK for academic use.

Veterans Day 2002: Now that's what I call Interesting! Though I can't find archived upper air charts. I infer from the orientation of the front that the trough was positively tilted, and still produced a High Risk. Do we laugh at the Euro and GFS or take that a little more seriously? I'll opine for real later this week.

Actually @AMZ8990 my home barometer was sluggish. However I was too. Needed extra coffee. Four days overcast, or the pressure drop? Sun was nice by afternoon. Then the evening squall with CF almost impressed me. Usually don't get those with the Plateau slowing down things. It was just enough to remind me of a Plains cold front, though a milder version. Still, thumbs up!

I was sleepy AS so maybe the pressure, lol. My home barometer is an old one so did not really keep up. I should upgrade. Couple Halloween decorations face-planted. We will rebuild.

Skimming Ray I like it. He's basically mild. However I agree that the secondary or tertiary pattern this winter opens the door for upslope - between bouts of SER or other meh. If so the local ski areas really need the business after covid and mild wx last year. My interpretation of the Ben Noll graphic, dominant +ABNA which is not great but also not SER. It's AN heights Siberia and Canada, with BN heights Bering Sea and right here in the Southeast US. However the source region is on fire in Canada including western Canada. 38 and cold rain Chattanooga. Take it to the bank! I am also watching pressure anomalies in Siberia, China, Canada and the USA. If the northern ones are AN and the southern ones BN, bullish cold unsettled. If the northern is BN, locked up cold air, we're probably AN. I believe the snow extent stuff is absolutely worthless without pressure and height context. Two ways to get AN snow and they have very different outcomes. 1. Low press Siberia and Canada achieves AN snow due to unsettled weather. Stays AN mid-latitudes with cold locked up. Bearish. 2. High press Siberia and Canada achieves AN snow due to cold but little qpf. BN press/heights mid-latitudes invite that cold to spill down in later weeks and months. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/glbcir.quick.shtml I check this site for pressure etc. https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ is the old Rutgers snow site. Bottom line: No pressure context makes Cohen's snow stuff worthless. Much respect to him, and he's a nice guy in person, but I need pressure and heights. Last few days have been the bullish set-up. However 7-day and 30-day smoothed charts are quite bearish. If I can't have snow, I guess look fwd to severe.

Maybe we can get some severe weather going around Veterans Day. Did somebody say record high temps? And also a West / Plains trough approaching. You'd think by November no odd closed low or TC would get in the way, but you never know in 2020. Otherwise I do believe warm is our background weather pattern due to La Nina. Expect typical or greater La Nina volatility though. Warm water off the Pac NW Coast invites troughs over the Continental US. Plains trough and SER cage match smack down. Don't forget folding chairs and microphone stands.

Olga Oct. 25-29, 2019 brought TS strength winds to West Tenn. Believe it was still designated TS or STS but greater than TD at the time. Back to current: Zeta caused a couple Halloween decorations to face-plant. We will rebuild, lol! PS. Dewpoints of 70-72 are quite frankly unacceptable in late October.

Well now my friends, Zeta may still be a minimal tropical storm when it crosses from Alabama into North Georgia. That means steady wind from North Georgia up the Southern Appalachians, especially the Smoky Mountains. Forget about the Cat 2 noise on Twitter, though it's not totally out of the question. Main issue is the forward speed. With the help of the mid-latitude trough, Zeta will scoot right along relative to earlier tropical systems. Though weakening quickly, a quick 15-hour ride from the Coast means it can still be tropical storm strength. Usually I'm not a, goodie we got a TS guy; however, I'm bored. Can't see any interesting severe wx, at least not during the day. Hopefully the WS goes to Game 7.

GFS and NAM have dews lower than the ECMWF. Enough rain on Wednesday would help prevent the higher dews advecting north. 70+F really is cruel and unusual punishment this late in the year.

Latest European weeklies line up with the tropical convection for the last forever. Except for next week's cold front, it's mainly warmer than normal weeks. Especially weeks 3-6 have a screaming +ABNA pattern. That's not super warm here, but no way to deliver cold. Warmest anomalies are north and west. I would think it's the secondary pattern. Would last until about Thanksgiving. Then the primary pattern in La Nina would be that stubborn SER. Neither is really cold here, which is not a surprise in La Nina. Guess I'm saying the same thing over and over. Mainly warm. Hope for a well timed miracle. One of those Plains cold outbreaks bleeds southeast correctly timed.

Yes this weather is simply perfect. Looks to continue for several days (except maybe Saturday) as all global models slow down the Big Front. Only the ICON is still cold before Halloween; but, it's an outlier. Looking for more leaf viewing this weekend. Probably about 3,000 FT. We jumped a bit early last weekend, but still made the best of it. Got the blue sky pics which might be elusive this weekend. However sometimes bright overcast is good in photos, with minor 'help' on the PC, lol! Halloween weekend could be good lower elevations if the front just prior is not too windy. Also note the early Fall time change this year Sunday November 1.

Let's do it! I'm happy the Challenge will go forward despite the pandemic. Kansas at Tennessee will be close. We might not know the winner for a couple weeks. Just kidding! Last I checked the Champions Classic is still on for late Novie. However I think some of the bigger early season tourneys are cancelled. Big 10 fb starts this weekend. LOL that two of their teams have such high probabilities for the BCS. Really? They haven't even played one snap yet!

Next year we will do the Blue Ridge on Fall Break. Seems to go 7-10 days earlier than Tennessee or even the Smokys, timed with fall break. Those pics on the Parkway are stunning. Even the cloudy day the trees pop out. Here is Saturday October 17 on the Cherohala Skyway. Pictures are taken from just inside NC at about 4,500 FT. Higher was well past peak. Lower was green. Past weekend only a thin 500 FT section was peaking. We enjoyed that elevation quite well. I suspect the 3,000-4,000 FT area will be great this coming weekend on the Tennessee side.