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cardinalland

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Everything posted by cardinalland

  1. cardinalland
    C5 is possible in this region right now due to high ocean heat content. With that dropsonde it looks like Beryl is almost a C4 already. C5 is not out of the question in the next day or so
  2. cardinalland
    a useful link for more info on global warming and hurricanes from the GFDL: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/#:~:text=Both the increased warming of,SSTs favor development and intensification.
  3. cardinalland
    I have my doubts as to if global warming will lead to a linear increase in hurricane count... Increases in upper tropospheric temperature may limit hurricanes just as much as increased ocean temperatures fuel them. There may be some crazy years though as things are thrown out of wack
  4. cardinalland
    Seeing likely 2-3 storms in one week in the Atlantic in June is impressive. I imagine we'll see a lull after as the current kelvin wave is leaving the area, and once the next kelvin wave comes around it's off to the races...
  5. cardinalland
    It's an interesting case study in the effectiveness of AI right now! Yeah, only 4 in the US since 1950! But I would imagine there's a few more which made landfall as C3+ in other regions.
  6. cardinalland
    Haha it's still wrong! Eloise was retired and Kate made landfall as a Category 2. These AIs really aren't all they're cracked up to be
  7. cardinalland
    I don't know of a database of all Atlantic major hurricane landfalls, but it's an interesting question for sure. As for the Lesser Antilles, I used https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ to map all major hurricanes which tracked through the Lesser Antilles. Every single storm to pass through the Lesser Antilles as a major hurricane since 1954 has been retired *EDIT: except for Hurricane Omar of 2008.
  8. cardinalland
    ChatGPT is completely wrong. I went through the list of US landfalls and found 4 major hurricane landfalls which weren't retired: 1. Hurricane Gracie (1959) 2. Hurricane Bret (1999) 3. Hurricane Zeta (2020) 4. Hurricane Idalia (2023)
  9. cardinalland
    as a GenZer i am thoroughly horrified. Having 2013 as the top analog based on the last 30 days is interesting. The Western Atlantic is much warmer this year though, so I think 2024 is different where it matters for an Atlantic season. The presence of vigorous Cape Verde waves this early is a strong sign like 2017.
  10. cardinalland
    how's everyone doing in morristown???
  11. cardinalland
    22/12/6
  12. cardinalland
    i saw some purple and green in the sky from my phone camera (and a very faint purple-pink glow in the northern sky with my eyes) from croton harmon NY
  13. cardinalland
    Mid 50s behind the backdoor here in southern Connecticut
  14. cardinalland
    I saw them in Lyndon VT. SO cool.
  15. cardinalland
    I like the ridge axis just west of new england. a good sign for this area although not a guarantee
  16. cardinalland
    looks like 7-8 inches on the ground in new haven. in line with the spotter report of 8”. snow stopped just after 1 and there’s already a little melt commencing. nice storm though
  17. cardinalland
    3.8 in new haven. 1.4 in last hour
  18. cardinalland
    heavy rates with low visibility and more on the way. everything snow covered including the street. everyone’s thanking this pope fella so i’m gonna thank him too
  19. cardinalland
    wow ripping snow in new haven. pretty heavy. gonna go out to measure in a few.
  20. cardinalland
    i remember a lot of folks saying “winter is over” around january 15th 2018 and look at what we got next 2 weeks do look AN though, only a tiny window around the 30th for potential snow
  21. cardinalland
    about 0.6” in new haven. accumulated on most surfaces, except those with a bucketload of salt on them…
  22. cardinalland
    definitely verifying in new haven. we’ve got 0.2” of ice on top of the snow and it is rock solid
  23. cardinalland
    there’s a solid layer of ice here in new haven now on untreated surfaces. the ice threat was definitely real
  24. cardinalland
    i’m seeing -30s for lows friday and saturday in edmonton. i think that could do the job
  25. cardinalland
    (national) blend of models i believe
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