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cardinalland

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Everything posted by cardinalland

  1. cardinalland
    2 minutes of graupel KHVN
  2. cardinalland
    GFS with a white rain crusha. snow map is too ridiculous to post
  3. cardinalland
    i would expect a lot of white rain with this setup in more marginal areas (most of SNE that isn't mountains tbh). I think I see white rain down here in new haven but no accumulation. might travel a little north to try to see a flake on the ground
  4. cardinalland
    i'm thinking your area gets snow from this one... in CT I feel like it's a question of if the wind is coming off the sound for you or not. 84 and N should get something at least
  5. cardinalland
    snow on a southwest wind... winters of yore... it will be 70 by christmas eve
  6. cardinalland
    i've had plenty of beer too but i can still recognize a -EPO -AO setup when i see one
  7. cardinalland
    I don't think I've seen the HREF plumes yet. looking good for NNE mountains
  8. cardinalland
    better
  9. cardinalland
    the MJO’s also just so far from here compared to other influences like EPO, NAO, pacific, atlantic, even el niño …
  10. cardinalland
    True but I think we will struggle without at least some Eastern Canadian snow cover
  11. cardinalland
    i would also like to see this big patch of bare ground fill in before we really start talking snow to the coast. it's kinda ridiculous for late Nov
  12. cardinalland
    the storm of interest around Tday has no antecedent cold airmass, so I don't see a pathway to big snow accums south of 90/495. It's an NNE event. But it looks like depending on how it evolves, it could push plenty of cold air into the area for the week after
  13. cardinalland
    hmm my experience has been a little different... i feel like wrap around precipitation like this one has often panned out, but yep filling in on the back end (especially behind a frontal passage) is much rarer than models indicate
  14. cardinalland
    just walked on the porch with a cold beer and said “we needed this”
  15. cardinalland
    Does anyone know of a source of data for EPO forecasts that's updated daily? I can't believe it but I can't find anything for it on the web!
  16. cardinalland
    i will definitely be standing on the porch watching the rain fall and saying "we needed this"
  17. cardinalland
    Decided to have some fun with data and correlated NYC snowfalls in December with temperatures around the world for the last 44 years. The first map only has statistically significant correlations and the second shows all. I guess a cold Plains and Midwest corresponds with higher snowfall around here. I probably didn't need to run the numbers to figure that out but here it is anyway. I was surprised by the western Canada correlation...
  18. cardinalland
    Decided to have some fun with data and correlated CT snowfalls in December with temperatures around the world for the last 44 years. It's CT but that maps well to SNE at least. The first map only has statistically significant correlations and the second shows all. I guess a cold Plains, Midwest, or northern US corresponds with higher snowfall around here. I probably didn't need to run the numbers to figure that out but here it is anyway.
  19. cardinalland
    nice anticyclone and there’s some developing convection on satellite. i imagine after a TD forms in a day or 2, it’s off to the races unless it moves over land
  20. cardinalland
    geefus unleashes a monster… high potential here
  21. cardinalland
    after March 10th we may have a shot of something in seriousness if a big cutter type system does end up developing, i imagine many of us in SNE will see first flakes from some cold pool snow showers
  22. cardinalland
    yeah, these systems are interesting because they are sitting there in the gyre waiting for something to pull them out in some direction. Looks like most models have it going NW and then E right now, but I could also see a Central America landfall
  23. cardinalland
    If the Carib system becomes a hurricane, it will become the 12th in the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Only four other Atlantic seasons have seen this quantity of hurricanes on record: 2005 (15), 2020 (14), 1969 (12) and 2010 (12).
  24. cardinalland
    This season has the 13th highest ACE since 1950 (so out of 75 seasons) which puts it in the top 20% in that period. To reach the top 10% it would have to attain an ACE of 182, which is unlikely but not impossible given the anticipated slow movement and high strength of this new system. Either way, we've experienced quite an active season. To reach top 10 in this period an ACE of 166 is needed, which is likely.
  25. cardinalland
    this is getting absurd. and all of these include today’s rain event (except the GFS which includes like half of it)
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