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Everything posted by cardinalland
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
cardinalland replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
after March 10th we may have a shot of something in seriousness if a big cutter type system does end up developing, i imagine many of us in SNE will see first flakes from some cold pool snow showers -
yeah, these systems are interesting because they are sitting there in the gyre waiting for something to pull them out in some direction. Looks like most models have it going NW and then E right now, but I could also see a Central America landfall
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
cardinalland replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
If the Carib system becomes a hurricane, it will become the 12th in the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Only four other Atlantic seasons have seen this quantity of hurricanes on record: 2005 (15), 2020 (14), 1969 (12) and 2010 (12). -
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
cardinalland replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
This season has the 13th highest ACE since 1950 (so out of 75 seasons) which puts it in the top 20% in that period. To reach the top 10% it would have to attain an ACE of 182, which is unlikely but not impossible given the anticipated slow movement and high strength of this new system. Either way, we've experienced quite an active season. To reach top 10 in this period an ACE of 166 is needed, which is likely. -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
cardinalland replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
this is getting absurd. and all of these include today’s rain event (except the GFS which includes like half of it) -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
cardinalland replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
we froze here in new haven. i didn’t expect it this weekend but it happened! let the winter festivities begin -
i'm assuming the week before thanksgiving around 11/21? could see some kind of east coast storm action with a -NAO/-AO/neutral-ish PNA
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this month, you could say San Diego! It's funny how almost every storm this month seems to be crossing our longitude at 50+N. We've gotten a cutter or two but I wonder when we'll get our first apps runner/coastal/clipper... anyways next couple weeks seem to be continuing with the "cuts so far it's off the map" theme
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
cardinalland replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
down here in tropical new haven i’m still waiting on a first freeze. latest on record is 11/16 and beating that record looks like a lock -
looks like this storm is gonna push us over the 160.1 ACE hyperactive threshold this is why not to call bust on a hurricane season too early
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i think 2 suns would get the job done, tatooine style
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I'm not sure what the problem is, I think the post aligns pretty well with your statement. One could say it's sensationalized a little bit but that's just twitter for ya
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tropical moisture may be our best bet in this region right now. it's the only way any model shows us getting rain
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
cardinalland replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Sandy was a week before election day but I know it still complicated things here in the NY Metro -
the 3 best analogs I could find (for a dry 60 period leading up to 10/15 and a La Niña) are 1964 (24.4" snow at KNYC), 1973 (23.5" snow at KNYC) and 1984 (24.1" snow at KNYC). A remarkably average set of years, for snowfall at least...
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shades of last winter on the 2 week forecast, with the greatest positive departures over the midwest and central canada.
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what a night in new haven. saw an incredible aurora (visible to the naked eye), light pillars, and a bright shooting star. peaked around 7:30pm and 10pm.
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for all those looking for more, i think we get another peak in about 20 minutes as electron density increases (as per spaceweatherlive)
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insane in new haven very visible to the eye
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