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chris21

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Everything posted by chris21

  1. chris21
    Still 31-32 at 4600 feet at Beech. Winter wonderland with no real melting at all.
  2. chris21
    Perhaps slightly but guidance has been remarkably consistent with upslope QPF for this event run after run.
  3. chris21
    Looks like a fair amount more northwest flow to me. Around 16 inches at Roan this run.
  4. chris21
    Ehh… they’ve been getting a decent upslope event even from the most meager progs and has been trending pretty steady. As warm as it is for the lowlands, as depicted, the highlands will be cold enough for moist, northwest flow.
  5. chris21
    Does it still look like upslope for the mountains in the EPS. I havent been able to check the snow probs.
  6. chris21
    I’ll be at Beech Mountain, NC for my bachelor party! Hopefully we see a couple flakes at least
  7. chris21
    Euro now showing a huge ice event with temps 29-31 in the northern mountains.
  8. chris21
    Every model shifted north significantly at 12z. We’ll see.
  9. chris21
    Gusts to 40-45 near Jax Naval. Pretty wild already a couple blocks from the St. John’s.
  10. chris21
    Same in PG county. Glad I made a switch from classroom teaching to tutoring full time… shortest summer I’ve ever seen.
  11. chris21
    Depends where in the mountains. In Canaan valley, frost is pretty common into July and August, other places not so much.
  12. chris21
    Impressive constant lightning to my west from the porch here in adams Morgan.
  13. chris21
    31 in NW DC now.
  14. chris21
    Its def an improvement on pivotal. Colder, wetter for sure.
  15. chris21
    Heaviest qpf still over the metros and se. Better temps north and west. Looks like noise at this point.
  16. chris21
    Does DCA ever fall below 33? I’d imagine in that scenario the city would be 31-32 at nighttime. Been burned by low level warmth many times in the district but hopefully this event occurring at night will help our cause.
  17. chris21
    Has a wicked arctic frontal passage that will certainly not happen as advertised around hour 200.
  18. chris21
    Nice trailing wave with plenty of arctic air around, reminds me a bit of 1/3
  19. chris21
    Potomac River was frozen from bank to bank this morning at Georgetown.
  20. chris21
    GFS def tripled down there
  21. chris21
    Euro still made a significant shift south. At this point, that's all I'm looking for.
  22. chris21
    CIPS analogs highlighting several historic ice storm analogs including the Jan 99 storm which was particularly damaging.
  23. chris21
    I see surface temps quickly dipping into the mid 20s on the GFS. In that case everything would stick no matter how warm it was prior.
  24. chris21
    12z Ukie is a nice hit for the entire area on Thursday. Canadian appears to be trying to push the boundary south.
  25. chris21
    It’s better than the 06z run so far from what I’m seeing.
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