TriPol
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The trajectory of a tropical cyclone is predominantly governed by the ambient steering flow, a term that encapsulates the mean environmental wind field in which the cyclone is embedded. Deviations in this steering flow, such as an anomalously robust westerly component, can induce a corresponding easterly shift in the cyclone's track. Synoptic-scale anticyclonic systems also exert a significant influence on cyclone trajectory. The spatial orientation and dynamical strength of a high-pressure system situated to the north or northeast of a cyclone can act as a steering mechanism, directing the cyclone on a more westerly course. Conversely, a weakening or lateral displacement of the anticyclonic system may permit a more easterly trajectory for the cyclone. Upper-level atmospheric features, including troughs and ridges, further modulate cyclone tracks. An approaching trough from the westerly direction can effectively "capture" the cyclone, inducing a poleward and often eastward deflection from the originally forecasted path. It's imperative to acknowledge the inherent uncertainties associated with numerical weather prediction models. These uncertainties stem from various sources, including but not limited to, initial condition errors, approximations in the model's physical parameterizations, and the intrinsically chaotic nature of the atmosphere. While the fidelity of these models generally improves as the temporal proximity to the event decreases, unforeseen deviations in the cyclone's track can still manifest. Oceanic parameters, such as sea surface temperatures and underlying currents, can also exert an indirect influence on cyclone trajectory by modulating its intensity. An intensifying cyclone may interact differently with the ambient steering flow and other synoptic to mesoscale features, thereby altering its anticipated path. As the cyclone nears a landmass, the increased surface friction can induce structural changes in the cyclone's inner core, which may, in turn, result in last-minute alterations to its track. Additionally, microscale geographical features, such as bays, inlets, and even expansive urban areas, can impart localized effects on the cyclone's trajectory, although these influences are generally subordinate to the aforementioned larger-scale dynamical factors.
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When was the last time we had a colder than normal august?
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Shades of Hurricane Elena 1985. As a former resident of Tampa, that storm was talked about A LOT in the late '80s and '90s.
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That's going to move down. I think Tampa is the bullseye. Maybe just north.
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The 384 hour GFS has upgraded from shrooms to crack!
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A bit a breeze with current temp around 78 degrees. 35% humidity, 50 degree dew point. It feels gorgeous outside.
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Incoming!
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That was fun. Let's do it again sometime soon!
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Coming down in buckets in Bayonne.
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That better change come October or NYC area is in for another warm, snowless winter.
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Dry as a bone in south bayonne.
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This summer is a little more active than last summer thunderstorm wise. Perhaps, just perhaps, that means winter will be more active as well. I mean it can't get less active than last winter.
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Source?
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Will this line hold together as it approaches NYC?
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Another round of rain and storms on the way
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https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/remembering-our-beloved-colleague-elise-finch/ It is with profound sadness that we share news of the passing of our beloved Elise Dione Finch Henriques. Elise has been a friend and team member at WCBS for 16 years. She first joined the team in 2007 as our weekend meteorologist and was most recently on the morning news with Mary Calvi and Chris Wragge. In September, Elise joined Cindy Hsu on the 9 a.m. newscast. Elise was a gifted and consummate professional who took great care with her work. She was also a wonderful ambassador in the community, including her hometown of Mount Vernon.
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What winter? The ocean and sea temps are going to be too hot. There's not going to be enough ice at the arctic to bring down significant cold fronts. Say hello to 70 degrees on Christmas.
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This was kinda meh in Hoboken. Not even a half inch of rain.
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Any chance of lowering that dew point below 60? It's moderately uncomfortable without the AC.
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So this is all gonna be gone tomorrow, right?
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How much for Philly?
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Is this going to be gone tomorrow?
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Canada could use a nice tropical storm
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Just look at all that warm water from Spain to the central Atlantic. Gonna be a busy year if El Nino doesn't stop it.
