TriPol

He should tell that to the people in Oswego. They had four feet of snow in 24 hours.

No. I don't think the immediate NYC Metro area sees any sleet.

No way this is a coastal hugger. I don't buy that for a second.

RDPS, the Canadian Regional Deterministic Prediction System, is often less reliable for mid-level temperature evolution, especially 850 hPa warming events, compared to some peer models. RDPS tends to struggle with warm air advection aloft, particularly when the warming depends on subtle synoptic timing or shallow inversions. It has a known bias toward under-amplifying mid-level ridges and mixing warm layers too aggressively, which can delay or mute warming signals. That shows up most clearly in marginal setups like rain versus snow lines or freezing rain transitions.

If I remember correctly, when tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard, we weren't 100% sure if it would stay all snow until 36-24 hours before the storm hit.

North and West receiving more snow than NYC mid to south NJ or Eastern LI. Excluding the ICON (a joke) everyone gives the immediate NYC area more snow.

There are no weather models or forecasts that show this.

I'll say this: It's real nice to actually have multiple storms to track. Last few winters have been boring.

How long until we get storm cancel from people?

The fact that the EURO has been running for about 10 minutes and no one has really said anything is saying something.

Definitely some warm air issues at the coast

Interesting how we're getting so much from such a weak low pressure.

Go down south. Plenty of that this week.

126 still snowing Tuesday morning.

Lee Goldberg said a higher chance of 12+ inches more North and West. I don't see that at all.

Gorgeous

It's only at 96 hours right now. Starts Sunday night, light, then gets going Monday. I'm not even through with Monday. How do you know this?

According to the GFS, Monday is the main event.

Is it me or is this much more suppressed?

We are in phase 6 https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202601210000

Is this true for lake effect snow too?

So, historically, if we get the highest ratios, we get lower amount. Fantastic tradeoff.

So if it’s 5 degrees outside, the ratios could be 6:1 and it’s 30 degrees outside it could be 15:1?

I’m not a Met and I don’t play one on TV, however; if we’ve got a chance at sleet, petty good bet that we don’t have 20:1 ratios. We thought this would be suppressed to the south originally, but even with that, we’d get .5 of QPF, which would mean 5-8 inches. Remember, there’s a snowstorm next week after this too. Now we’ve got the chance that maybe either the high pressure isn’t as strong as originally thought, or the low pressure is coming closer to the coast… which will warm the air. Warmer air = lower ratios.

It doesn't look all that impressive.