TriPol
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Everything posted by TriPol
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They've actually been pretty spot on this year with snow measuring at Central Park.
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I think we break the record. I think we break 2006 and maybe 2016's record.
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How is it possible for the NAM to outdo itself every run?
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With the sREFs, the NAM, and the HRRR all on board giving us an absolutely historical blizzard and the NWS telling us 13 - 18 inches, I have no clue why TV meteorologists are still saying "6 - 10 inches." Are they really hugging the EURO this much and think everything is going to come around to support the EURO?
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In a different thread.
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Bombogenesis. Once this thing goes offshore it explode.
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There was talk of closing this thread earlier in the week because the chances were so small that anything would come of it. Now Atlantic City could get... 4 feet of snow.
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Beautiful.
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This is the most west the low has been over the past few runs.
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Doubt there will be any school on Monday.
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We shall see if the GFS can score a coup.
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The NAM moves sooooo slow...
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Is it me or is it much weaker?
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I'm out to hour 35.
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Life comes at you fast.
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I cannot imagine what NYC is going to wake up to this morning. A blizzard warning will get people out of bed VERY QUICKLY.
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Wow.
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HOLY SHIT!!
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That's so odd that they've knocked 2 inches off of the forecast when the models (except the EURO) have gotten better.
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I think that’s exactly right, and it really does put forecasters in a no-win spot. As we get inside about 48 hours, higher-resolution, short-range guidance starts to carry more weight. Models like the NAM, HRRR, and other mesoscale systems can better resolve banding, localized deformation zones, and boundary-layer thermal structure. That’s where snowfall totals can swing dramatically over small distances.
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The problem is, what if we get 18 - 24 inches of snow and the TV mets keep calling for 6-12 because one model refuses to budge?
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Every single model keeps bumping west. The EURO holds serve. Either every single weather model is seeing something that the EURO isn't, or every single weather model is wrong and the EURO is right. We're 36 hours away.... something is up with the EURO imho.
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I've seen the NAM overamp storms a million times, but the GFS is usually suppressed or warm. Plus the UKMET, CMC and GEM are all with the GFS and NAM.
