I really think it's time to stop using globals. They're not going to pinpoint everything down to the mile. GFS is great, but it's time to switch to the mesos.
25+? No. 20+? Yes. I'm thinking this storm is more west than east. I think that with how explosive it will be, will give 2-3 inch per hour snowfalls under some really awesome deathbands. I think from 8 pm - 8 am is our window. Say we get a few inches before that and a few inches after that. I think this breaks records.
I think what's at issue here is
A: How much precip falls
B: How much of that preceip is frozen
I've seen anywhere from 1 inch to 3.5 inches of precip over NYC.
A sub 980 low on or close to the benchmark in mid-late February in NYC always delivers. Once we're talking about 18-24 inch snowstorms, 1888, 1978, 2006, 2016... they're all in the conversation.
https://townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/p/weather-model-run-times.html
Just so everyone has the ability to see this. It's a bit old and doesn't include the 6z and 18z times of the EURO as well as the run times of the AI versions of the GFS and EURO, but it's still somewhat helpful: