TriPol

That's so odd that they've knocked 2 inches off of the forecast when the models (except the EURO) have gotten better.

I think that’s exactly right, and it really does put forecasters in a no-win spot. As we get inside about 48 hours, higher-resolution, short-range guidance starts to carry more weight. Models like the NAM, HRRR, and other mesoscale systems can better resolve banding, localized deformation zones, and boundary-layer thermal structure. That’s where snowfall totals can swing dramatically over small distances.

The problem is, what if we get 18 - 24 inches of snow and the TV mets keep calling for 6-12 because one model refuses to budge?

Every single model keeps bumping west. The EURO holds serve. Either every single weather model is seeing something that the EURO isn't, or every single weather model is wrong and the EURO is right. We're 36 hours away.... something is up with the EURO imho.

I've seen the NAM overamp storms a million times, but the GFS is usually suppressed or warm. Plus the UKMET, CMC and GEM are all with the GFS and NAM.

This is a hot-hand fallacy. It refers to the tendency to believe that a person who has experienced a run of success, such as winning several games in a row, has a higher probability of continuing to win because they are “on a roll.” The classic example comes from basketball, where fans assume a player who has made several consecutive shots is more likely to make the next one. Just because the EURO has been right in the past, does not mean it will be right this time around. No, if all the other models were showing nothing and the Euro was showing a blizzard where we could up to 2 feet of snow, I would not go all in.

We all staying here for the 06z NAM??

Who's still up?

The EURO is not what it was 6 years ago.

LOL at Lee Goldberg calling for 8 - 12 inches.

Don't apologize. We're all honored to have you here and do this. Brings back great memories for us.

Your pxp's are legendary.

Can't wait for 2036!

The southern stream and primary northern stream have already consolidated into a closed, negatively tilted mid-level low offshore. The Alberta clipper energy upstream is elongated and lagging, feeding into the broader trough rather than diving into the base at peak intensification as a third discrete impulse. In other words, the phase has already happened and the system is maturing, not undergoing a fresh three-way interaction. If that upstream energy were carving sharply southeast and visibly tightening the core at this frame, we’d be having a different conversation. But here, the structure is consolidated and occluding. This is a powerful double phase with backside reinforcement, not a clean triple crash. If we could get that Alberta clipper to come in... we might get Moses to start building an ark with skies!

This goes beyond boxing day. This is January 2016.

The entire subforum is buried. This is a blizzard for everybody.

This is weather porn at its finest.

Ask and you shall receive

Is it below freezing yet?

I'm really confused why Lee Goldberg is saying this starts as rain Sunday morning.

20 minutes until getting NAM'd.

I think they need to talk about it for the entire NYC Metro area.

Once Hochul and Sherrill declare a state of emergency by this time tomorrow, people will become aware of it.

It's time to start talking about a blizzard.

The EURO caved to the GFS.