TriPol

I wouldn't pay attention to the GFS inside of 24 hours. HRRR is my go to at this point, although I'm pretty giddy about the RRFS coming soon.

06z HRRR is incredible for our area as far as snow and icing. It shows half an inch of ice on Long Island.

3 am thoughts: When it does snow, it's going to be the heaviest snow some of us have ever seen in our lives. Think 2" - 3" per hour snow. Literally puking snow.

Remember, the NAM is being retired.

And endure 25 minutes of non-stop replays about the tuck rule? I think I'm good.

*clears throat* It's time for the obligatory... It's nowcasting time.

I wouldn't want to be a meteorologist in the NWS right now.

I guess with this storm dumping sleet and freezing rain all over the country, it's just decided that it's going to do the same thing here. Fun times.

I think the NWS really needs to adjust the forecast. Every single model shows mixing. The EURO shows freezing rain which is a lot worse than sleet.

Maybe a quick hit of sleet, but it ends as snow.

GFS holds serve against the NAM (retiring soon) the ICON (irrelevant) and the RDPS (can't do well with WAA). I would put more stock in the GFS than any of those.

He should tell that to the people in Oswego. They had four feet of snow in 24 hours.

No. I don't think the immediate NYC Metro area sees any sleet.

No way this is a coastal hugger. I don't buy that for a second.

RDPS, the Canadian Regional Deterministic Prediction System, is often less reliable for mid-level temperature evolution, especially 850 hPa warming events, compared to some peer models. RDPS tends to struggle with warm air advection aloft, particularly when the warming depends on subtle synoptic timing or shallow inversions. It has a known bias toward under-amplifying mid-level ridges and mixing warm layers too aggressively, which can delay or mute warming signals. That shows up most clearly in marginal setups like rain versus snow lines or freezing rain transitions.

If I remember correctly, when tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard, we weren't 100% sure if it would stay all snow until 36-24 hours before the storm hit.

North and West receiving more snow than NYC mid to south NJ or Eastern LI. Excluding the ICON (a joke) everyone gives the immediate NYC area more snow.

There are no weather models or forecasts that show this.

I'll say this: It's real nice to actually have multiple storms to track. Last few winters have been boring.

How long until we get storm cancel from people?

The fact that the EURO has been running for about 10 minutes and no one has really said anything is saying something.

Definitely some warm air issues at the coast

Interesting how we're getting so much from such a weak low pressure.

Go down south. Plenty of that this week.

126 still snowing Tuesday morning.