Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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I was thinking of posting a loop of 250mb analysis, North America view. I am saving them just to study the jet stream over the El Nino winter. It's kind of because I almost always look at the 500mb map for the USA but ignore what's happening at 250mb in the Pacific. Does anybody want me to post a 14-day loop of this?
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Typhoon Koinu now is an 80kts typhoon as per JTWC advisory, so it getting up there into Cat-2 type strength. Most of the rest of the JTWC forecast is similar to what I posted yesterday. JTWC now has 105 knots before a likely landfall at southern Taiwan. It is always interesting to see the -90 C cloud tops for the West Pacific tropical storms/typhoons due to the high tropopause or just simply the high topped convection over those warm waters. -
Tropical Storm Koinu could intensify to 110 knots as it approaches Taiwan, as per JTWC
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Summertime temps of 81-82 at Denver, 85 at Salt Lake City, Wyoming, and even Montana, with the mountains getting also summertime values with no clouds.
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Texas/Oklahoma 2023 Obs and Discussion
Chinook replied to Ed, snow and hurricane fan's topic in Central/Western States
There have been several large hail reports of 1.5" + today in northern Texas. As for this, I do not know if there was a confirmed tornado at Commerce, TX
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Mid-Atlantic winds are picking up a lot. Virginia Beach has 26 knots gusting to 41 knots now
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Values above average for the main three areas are circled in red
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Houlton all time pressure records (not sure if any of these are in error)
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lowest pressures in the fall season, Bar Harbor. Sep 15-16 2009 is not correct data, as the pressure was about 1010mb.
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Did you know? January 5, 2018 had a lower pressure at the same spot at TS Lee right now. It was a blizzard with 949mb at the mouth of the Bay of Fundy, January 5, 2018, 03z. Also, February 8, 2020, 00z had 966mb with rain/snow. how about 968mb with rain/snow in April? non-occluded low at 976mb last year, March
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It would appear that the low is at the mouth of the Bay of Fundy
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wind gusts to 61mph (53 kt)
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974.2 mb at Yarmouth Nova Scotia, so probably bottoming out what that airport will measure.
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976 mb
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gusting to 49 knot at Mitinicus Island Maine (part of the buoy system, CMAN observation)
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Here are current observations. 43 knots gusting to 53 knots at Lunenberg Nova Scotia, gust to 58 knot at Halifax
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Rainfall in the Denver area maxed out where there was a narrow area of thunderstorms across the north metro, maybe with hail. Mayjawintastawm, so you are saying the first snow is in September? I would think you are thinking of October.
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Denver: chance of rain, all days
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A long time ago, I remember a "weather weenie" run of the ECMWF that said that Hurricane Sandy would come into the coast. Then, a week later, it was a $70 billion disaster. And the WPC invented the term "Frankenstorm" but then regretted it! Note: Hurricane Lee recent recon says 962mb and maybe 80 kt at the surface, so the NHC value of 95 kt is generous.
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Here's a great full-disk satellite view of major hurricanes Lee and Jova (1500z on September 7th)
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There's not a whole lot of storms that ever reach 140 knots. I guess we will see if it can truly recover to the 120kt as forecast by the NHC at this time. I would say that the current ongoing recon pass has about 95-97kt of flight level winds, and 960 mb. It honestly it may be about 87 knots for the surface winds, and the 960 is impressive, but obviously not the 930mb and such. So yeah, a long way downward form Thursday night.
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large hail/heavy rain detected by radar west of Boston
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Texas/Oklahoma 2023 Obs and Discussion
Chinook replied to Ed, snow and hurricane fan's topic in Central/Western States
Some of our days this week will be the first below-normal five-day period for Oklahoma and Arkansas for a long time. Dallas hasn't had a week below normal since June 18th, considering all running 7-day periods
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Chinook replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
There were 426 storm reports from the slight risk! Did all of you guys in the Mid Atlantic Discussion thread do a spotter report or something? Because I know several of you live in Maryland. And it would appear there will be more severe reports in the Northeast corridor today.
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wow, 70 kt at 5:00AM 90 kt at 11:00AM and 140 kt at 11:00PM. So, yeah, I think your comment is about accurate. that's a +70 kt in 18 hr. I can't think of anything like that. I think Hurricane Andrew did something crazy like this in 1992 but it may very well have been many more hours. (Edit: just read the post about Hurricane Wilma.)
