Chinook

Here is an image of the revamped aviationweather dot gov web site. It's possible to see the winter storm warning zones, observations, radar, and fronts.

-13C in North Dakota and +17C in Arkansas. With that change of 30 C exactly, the difference of these 850mb temps is 54F. The surface temperatures differed by more than 60 degrees F from central North Dakota to southern Arkansas.

That's weird. You would think that the winter storm watch, replaced by a winter storm warning, would be the normal scenario. That is, for over 8" in 24 hours I believe.

For the snow event: Today's 18z GFS really hits Denver with over 1.0" of QPF. The other models area not too far behind. Generally the models have areas of 0.4"+ for the QPF east of the mountains and maybe quite far east, along I-76.

Oct 23: Toledo was down to 32, first frost of the year Oct 24: Toledo had a near-record high of 81, only one off from the record of 82. So I guess that's like a super Indian summer if we get that close to a record. There are not a lot of leaves that have fallen and covered the lawns. Things seem to be going very well for the red colored maple leaves. Great sunset pic by TheNino! extremely nice leaves here

Hurricane Otis intensified 80mph in 12 hours, from 65mph to 145mph (I actually had no idea this was happening)

The models today have a lot more agreement on the development of snow on the front/jet, as mentioned by Valpovike. A lot of the QPF is similar. Maybe we're back to a somewhat more typical pre-Halloween snowstorm? It seems like the pre-Halloween snowstorm happened on a few years. That 700mb is not warm.

Here is the pattern change coming up. And even in saying this, the GFS and ECMWF have quite different temps for northern Colorado on Oct 26. Nevertheless, the colder air will be in the Northwest and it will move into Colorado at some point. It looks like the models have just light snow for the mountains with the overall system.

Dear Mexico Plz measure weather during a hurricane. Thx.

I was going to try to discuss the upcoming pattern change, but I have some problems. The GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles don't even really agree as to the overall pattern at 6-7 days. ECMWF does not drop the freezing air into northern Colorado on Oct 26.

Hey Mayja, remember this 2021 dual-metro snowstorm? It somehow failed to drop heavier snows over the Palmer Divide but successfully dropped over 6" at Colorado Springs.

red maple or sugar maple?

completely re-vamped web site for Aviationweather dot gov shows an integrated METARS, NWS warnings (not sure about convective warnings yet), radar, and aviation stuff that's kind of not that useful to us. You can turn on/off the radar, aviation stuff. Here is a sample of what it's like to look up previous observations from more than two hours ago. You have to go to archive mode, but it's pretty easy.

I was messing around with the radar archive to find out about the Manchester SD tornado. Instead of the Manchester tornado, I made this plot of a different tornado, connected to a massive supercell. It was closer to the FSD radar, June 24, 2003. Tornado Archive says 95 tornadoes in 1 day.

My new loop of the past 15 days, 250mb jet stream analysis https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Oct_1_15_2023_250mb_loop.html

It's fine. You can't control the weather by starting a thread on a computer forum. El Nino is coming up. At some point in time you'll start looking for those California 500mb lows that become a snowstorm in Denver.

It's the CoCoRAHS web site, the map on top of the page is the interactive map. Then, you have to push the button for "RANGE" and then you have to choose two calendar days. You might want to zoom in to a local area before doing the multi-day calculation. (note sure if that's important.)

north Illinois 3-day precip

Hey look I found a mid-latitude cyclone

I found some weather for ya. Now there is a winter weather advisory for over 9000ft, with various winter weather products issued for over 7000ft in Wyoming. All of which might be translated to "huge winter storm" if it impacted any type of Midwest area.

140kt-160kt jet stream bashing into the West Coast, and there's a blocking pattern in the way. This leads to chaos. And by that I mean the the surface low will eventually cut under the block and go the Mid-Atlantic. But apparently the severe weather risk tomorrow is kind of a small slight risk.

Wow, I didn't even realize Hurricane Lidia had recon until now. 951mb and over 96 knot winds displayed here!

With reference to my previous post, the Manchester SD massive F4 tornado (June 24, 2003) must have had some reason why the STP would have been considerably greater than 1. (say, for example, locally lower LCL and higher 0-1km SRH.) Compare the huge CAPE, huge SCP and low STP here.

Today, back to 80 at Greeley and 80 at Denver, even 78 down by KAPA airport. This is quite typical as the strong upper level trough pulled away from the Plains and is sitting in the Great Lakes/Ontario. The 500mb height and surface temperatures always get much higher in response to the upper low moving east. An official high of 80 at KDEN is 12 degrees above the normal high. There's just a huge amount of above-normal temperatures along the Rocky Mountains going from Mexico all the way up to the Northwest Territories.

Now this Aviationweather dot gov web site is changing, allowing a more complicated interface for the METARs. I kind of liked the ease of use.