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Def better than 06z and 00z....but not like the globals. It will prob be pretty ujnderwhelming run for most of us but its the NAM in clown range and it got better.

NAM a MUCH better result for the forum. Great start to 12z.

I’m going to be sick.

3k shows the DC disaster gap but it would've filled in a bit on later panels

It's a very good run if you keep expectations in check and realize the GFS is having ChatGPT like hallucinations for snow totals

South jersey Special

one word, NAM'd. S Jersey is nuked, but the entire area gets a significant storm. still snowing during this frame too.

Closed off and stalled too quick again BUT later than 6z which allowed the storm to gain a little latitude. One more delay and we are good.

Gotta think that some sort of mid level band would be further west than the main fronto one along the Delmarva. Happens almost every time with a coastal

Heavier stuff makes it us this run SE PA

Yes but the trend is pretty clear, load blown over DC ain’t happening. The later, the better, and I think it keeps ticking NE. Now, that doesn’t mean hecs here but better than just a glancing blow.

NAM says nope

snow started around 7 this morning. Will end up with less than an inch, but the wind was definitely a slap in the face compared to this past week

Meh

I'd rather be in the Virginia' delmarva but not gonna kick a 6-8" NAM run out of bed

Pretty close to textbook for a big Noreaster.

Nice pivot on that precip shield

Looks like a beauty SJ Special on the NAM!!

You know, the trailing piece that might kick/might help climb/might phase had this look to it on the NAM that made me want to check the analogs. While it doesn’t show up for the northeast with the 00z NAM, January 2000 DOES show up in the Mississippi valley analogs. I wonder if we get that in top analogs here too for this sort of look on the 12z NAM.

Man you have been all over the place lol. Hopefully its a region wide foot

Teleconnections have been steady for Feb 22-23 with MJO phase 3 (coldest Feb phase for La Niña on avg), strong -EPO/-WPO/-PNA/+NAO, and near neutral AO.

NAM will LBSW. Not sure how far north it gets. Might be better.

Totally agree and well said. Not to be uppity, but I've been here and Eastern since 97. None of us ever learned anything when posting. I'm immensely grateful for all the insight from the red taggers and those more experienced posters who really know what's going on. Many of the younger crew are catching on, but still need to post less, read more, learn and avoid jumping the gun. Unfortunately, that's the era we live in with today's immersive social media frenzy. Mods - sorry for the banter.