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  2. Neblizzard
    The models haven’t gotten any better in decades with setups like this. That’s why with storms in winter we can’t trust any one model 48 hours out. We learn and move on.
  3. mob1
    At least it's for a rain (and wind) event.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another important difference is the character of La Nina....hard pressed to find many weak/east based Nina events that occured during -QBO that didn't feature some blocking.
  5. Damage In Tolland
    Absolute boringest solution . Unreal
  6. Stormlover74
    At least we're finding out 48 hours out instead of as the event is under way
  7. NJwx85
    Uncanceled my trip to Hershey this weekend. Tomorrow looks like very spotty light showers, maybe slightly more numerous overnight. Sunday looks almost completely dry out there now lol.
  8. jm1220
    Yep. Guess we watch tonight and hope for a better trend. Sloppy/late phase as we all know, eastern New England gets the real storm and we hope for a few wraparound table scraps. Since much of LI is back in a drought as of yesterday, whatever we can get is badly needed.
  9. WxWatcher007
    This setup would probably be a disaster in the winter. A weak storm occluding well south of us with persistent easterly flow sounds like marginal temps with a shredded precipitation shield. Maybe the high would save some of us in the forum but idk here in CT.
  10. osfan24
    Get used to it. Gonna see a bunch of this over the next six months.
  11. Sundog
    I am getting March 2001 vibes
  12. Rmine1
    I will never learn to not to get sucked in by the early modeling, and the media. Way too soon to say bust, but it’s headed that way. Next, if it ever comes.
  13. Itstrainingtime
    I love me a rainy Sunday in the fall. Football, chilly and darkness. I'll be in Pittsburgh at the Steelers game and will be anxious to see/hear what happens back this way as I won't be home until later Monday. FWIW, Elliott isn't expecting much rain at all here, and probably little to none on Sunday itself: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php
  14. CoastalWx
    12z euro yesterday barely had .25" here. Glue factory.
  15. psv88
    Welp, dry begets dry and boring.
  16. CoastalWx
    Euro was like 200 miles south and sun here. Model sucked.
  17. bluewave
    The big winner that winter was Virginia. I can remember flying out of JFK with bare ground and seeing the ground covered with snow in the mid-Atlantic from over 30K feet. We were under a winter storm warming here on a Sunday morning in February and the storm missed to our south. That was common in the old days with really big smowfall misses from the models only 12-24 hrs out in time. Data for October 1, 1979 through April 30, 1980 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. BIG MEADOWS COOP 68.3 MOUNT LAKE BIOL STN COOP 66.1 MONTEREY COOP 56.6 LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE WBAN 50.0 GOSHEN COOP 48.0 CHARLOTTESVILLE 2W COOP 45.9 SCOTTSVILLE 6SE COOP 45.5 NORFOLK NAS WBAN 45.4 DRIVER 4 NE COOP 44.5 BUCKINGHAM COOP 43.5 SUFFOLK LAKE KILBY COOP 43.0 OCEANA NAS WBAN 42.6 BURKES GARDEN COOP 42.5 DIAMOND SPRINGS COOP 42.0 NORFOLK INTL AP WBAN 41.9 Norfolk Area ThreadEx 41.9
  18. Snowcrazed71
    Well, I'm sorry your not getting your catastrophic wind event ( I myself am not ). However mundane it is for you, it will be welcomed by many for the rain we will get. Don't get me wrong, I love a good storm, but I don't want trees down all over the place around my property or on my house, and I'm sure many will feel the same way. Bring on the rain.... And better yet, let's get this pattern going for the winter so we can bring on the snow!!!
  19. mob1
    UKIE is light rain for the area. It's comically dry (though not necessarily wrong).
  20. mob1
    I think the 6Z Euro is the most exciting solution for now, it has very little Sunday but the secondary low on Monday is consolidated and brings moderate to heavy rain with strong winds. Some of the other models have more rain on Sunday but the entire event is more drawn out and it's light to moderate rain with decent winds.
  21. bncho
    rename this thread to the holiday weekend debacle, just like Feb 19-20 was lol
  22. Maestrobjwa
    This weekend's winter storm track preview is brought to you by...nina! I think this is exactly what's going to happen at some point this winter. I mean that would be more normal with Philly north getting a big snow instead of a complete struggle up and down the corridor like it has been.
  23. wthrmn654
    Yep I'm on the island of wind lol so I expecting something. Otherwise I'll be grumpy Sunday/ Monday
  24. MJO812
    Yep becoming weaker because of a late phase.
  25. Maggie Valley Steve
    My low was 40 even with a low stratus deck.
  26. NEG NAO
    This is beginning to look like a moderate rain event north and west of Monmouth County NJ - with 1 - 2 inches long duration event and with the ground being bone dry from the drought conditions the last couple of months it will soak up that 1 -2 inches fast and there should be little flooding concerns unless you are prone to coastal flooding which is being caused by long duration onshore flow and high winds............
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