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Why put me in with Kev and Brett? I actually anticipated a decent winter last year. I just love going against the ACATT narrative and breaking the hearts of weenies.

That can't be ruled out, though probably rather localized. These setups are always extremely trickly...you have to respect the dynamics and you don't need a ton of CAPE but you need enough to combat the shear, otherwise the updrafts just topple over and it prevents vertical growth (big reason why these end up as low-topped events). One big discriminator in these events producing damaging wind gusts on a larger scale versus rather isolated is steep low-level lapse rates which we'll lack today.

I can, can’t, could, and couldn’t give 2 effs.

Level 1 rating on the @Kmlwx scale

I would think that warm advection might be enough, even without a lot of sun....

Tomorrow is looking like a dreary windy cold Fall day with temperatures stuck in mid 40's.

CAD cloud wedge slowly eroding. My guess is noon at the earliest, 1.16pm is my call. Temps will jump 20F in 90 min and Bel Air will be the jackpot today even if they only see 5 min of sun. DC split with one decent cell going south over Orange

I dont understand why some weather hobbyists and people who are employed in the meteorology field want it to be sunny and warm/hot/humid all of the time...how dull and boring is that?? Lol

Freddy 23. .

"Future Arctic winter sea ice is likely to shrink by around 1 million square kilometers (386,000 square miles) more than previously thought, after researchers used clues from a warm period 6,000 years ago to improve the reliability of climate models." https://phys.org/news/2026-10-winter-sea-ice-loss-underestimated.html ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02123-w)

Have had some chilly mornings already compared to others, so yes I could see that too

Yes! That was a couple years ago if I am thinking of the same one

There are many elephants here. In this case I'm just giving an example of how the world benefits from fossil fuel use. Multiply that times a couple billion, and you can see how it has brought prosperity - including things like the ability for humanity to help the world in various ways - including helping to do things like preserve endangered species. And... doing things like flying hundreds of jets each year to climate conferences (?)

Ryan's station calling for 60 mph gusts????

We're not fans of brown ground at Christmas, especially when the grandkids are looking to go sledding. In 28 Christmases here we've had 5 with no snow on the ground, also 8 with 10"+ pack.

I hear you can do this regularly in florida year round.

Didn’t @Jisay we want a warm October? Good news! https://x.com/ryankanerwx/status/2111092128407277828?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

Yes - specifically referring to the pre-1990s period when a lot of disasters went unreported, due to lack of detection (satellites) or mechanisms (internet). (it's talked about elsewhere on the page that's from) Surely you wouldn't propose that detection/reporting rate has gone *down* would you? What would be the reason for such a thing? Re: insurance - obviously the financial damages from disasters has gone up tremendously. And FWIW - I wouldn't propose that there isn't at least *some* increase in actual disaster levels in the works due to CC (despite the chart I posted); it's hard to tease out the level due to the noise of natural random variation. I'm just illustrating that it's clear that there's not some kind of world-threatening trend here, by any stretch.

97/98 had some great 40/70 track coastals. In fact a plethora of them. The issue is it’s hard to snow when it’s 45 degrees. It was so far off even elevation wasn’t enough to overcome the warmth. I mean the most impressive event for all the wrong reasons that winter was this. .

Not sure we really get much, if any sun today. Perhaps some local breaks but I don't think it will be anything meaningful in terms of destabilization. The destabilization of the atmosphere today is largely going to be due to the advection of increased moisture in the lower-levels and at the surface. The SPC noted weak mid-level lapse rates as a hindrance of instability because of some observed soundings, but not so sure I totally agree with that. Mid-level lapse rates may actually steepen some as the day progresses and that would help provide a bit of a boost. Better heating and cloud breaks will be just off to our southwest...though you in SW CT could get onto the northeast edge of cloud breaks, so perhaps a bit of an instability gradient will become established. Regardless we should see a line of heavy downpours with some localized embedded thunder/lighting and a quick burst of strong wind gusts.

Give this recorded breaking (cc enhanced) Nino a chance to do its work. Not that I wish disaster on anyone but we have only just started. Ask the marine iguanas that are left (if any) how they felt about this event. .

Rain has ended here-let's see if we can get any sun later to destabilize.

I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998

Absolutely. We know it’s part kidding, and part reverse psychology too. We’ll have our chances, that’s for sure.

What is the best is like last year we can laugh at the DIT Scooter Brets of the forum. The Eyeores of the forum. Oh me oh my . Warministas calling for a complete torch record snowless winter are on record. Let the chips fall where they may. Love when Mother Nature says oh you think you know what is coming and whacks us relentlessly.