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^Right now it's developing from the west and the east, signaling basin-wide. Nino 1+2 doesn't correlate as highly as a lead in April, surprisingly. Here is Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 for +8months Dec SSTA

I too had a quick round of graupel In West Chester albeit 45 seconds worth.

Heavy wet snow while driving under this cell on route 3/44 in Plymouth. Unexpected

Freeze warnings

42 with a few flakes flying

Absolutely, I saw that in the discussion today, pray for clouds and wind.

^”See the magenta in the middle of the map? That’s alert level 4 of 5 for bleaching in the #Galapagos. Common in El Niño (or in this case developing) where cool water upwelling slows/ stops and surface waters significantly warm. The sea surface temp anomaly is +3-4°C (~6°F). That’s why life suffers there every El Niño, esp. east based episodes Thanks @NOAACoral”

I got my April Trace in at 1:52pm this afternoon with a brief light burst of some gruapel/mangled snowflakes.

Yeah we got rain last two fronts, which is some encouragement. QPF came in under, not a surprise in drought - but at least it's raining. See if we can accomplish more this weekend into next week. Even poorly timed waves (see my severe rant) can bring rain. Seems like a decent bet. Then we'll see how long we can milk the southern jet stream next week. Could it be a drought breaker? Could it just add humidity before the SER gets on steroids? I don't believe the CFS or Euro weeklies. Check back in June!

I think there will be additional chances especially for your area around 4/28-5/3

Ok now we just need a good 2 day soaking rain and then some sun plz thx

Unfavorable SSTA for big season as it stands currently

We have managed a couple of decent rain showers. It won't dent the drought, but it will provide some temporary relief. As for relief, there might be some on the way as we begin May. Temps look to fall BN right as we end April and begin May. It won't be anything overly shocking I don't think - some frost likely I think. It will feel sharper than it really is due to the much AN temps we have seen(summer like) during the past couple of weeks. Hopefully, that heat has abated until its proper time. I don't see mid 80s on my phone any longer, and that is a relief. We don't want summer heat building during April. Even with La Nina fading, any residual effects from that dying Enso phase could still produce very hot and dry weather. Hopefully, Enso neutral and Nino conditions take hold sooner than later. That should bring more precip and moderation of temps.

Nino 4 is the loading pattern for a Nino 3.4 El Nino. CDAS is currently much higher than CPC. This event is developing basin-wide like 2015-2016 or further west than most Strong Nino's. If it keeps developing further west at its core, I don't think it will go Super, but perhaps Strong, or per RONI high-end Moderate.

We're not doing watches and warnings. Season's canceled. That's not commentary on the system. That's angry storm chaser venting. This weekend into early next week I would bet a stack of chips on poorly timed waves. Well, that's good for the storm anxious. Note it's a week out. I'm being a pessimist more than a scientist today.

Still a couple things to resolve - cloud cover and wind. We need those to work out to really drop.

Morch and the torch definitely sped things up this year.

Due to multiple requests below for comparison I have added the recast National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) temperature data that includes the chilling adjustments to the older data. That chart is now below the actual raw data. I split our weather database almost down the middle to compare how our climate here in Chester County has changed compared to the first 66 years of climate data (1893-1959) vs. the last 67 years of data (1960-2025). With the actual data we see that 7 of our months have trended cooler - 3 have trended warmer and 2 have remained about the same. Overall, on an annual basis the actual raw data has trended cooler by 0.2 degrees during our most recent half of climate data 1960-2025. However, once NCEI applies their adjustments it paints a very different picture. We see clear warming in each and every month during our more recent climate history from 1960-2025. This aligns well with the expected warming narrative.

Poor little birdie smacked my living room window. Heard a loud thump, and when I checked, there he was sitting on the deck rail trying to regain his bearings. At least he made it. Sometimes they break their neck. Not uncommon to find a dead bird laying on the deck.

Seems reasonable to assume a T. We have now had three separate graupel/snow showers blow through, all moving NW-SE (and Arlington is SE of us). Together with @pazzo83's DC observation, seems likely that both Arlington and DC got a T. But maybe that's just my weenie logic.

I'm not saying that it accumulated but we were under a squall that was frozen precip, bouncing off the cars, much too small/atmospherically stable for hail. so yes, it was sleeting heavily and I don't think that's all that historic

We’re getting a passing shower and yet I could’ve sworn I’ve seen some frozen precip in the mix. Maybe even mangled snowflakes or graupel. And that is in spite of it being partly cloudy and 47. I’ve seen this before even in Maryland, usually in the spring when there’s a cold airmass in place and it’s probably a lot colder aloft.

This isn't the usual freeze hype . Tonight's the real deal and a very concerning situation for local fruit farmers. Any amount of time at or below 28°F will be catastrophic to local fruit farming. Cherry and apple fruitlets have already developed. Fruitlets go from alive and well at 29°F to complete cellular damage and abortion at 28°F.

what's this accumulated supercell energy products or whatever they're called that are going around?

Some are saying no but those that live in the woods know