All Activity

Half of VA, the northern half hang out in the mid atlantic thread

Positive tilt doesn't do us any favors but we're in trending phase. Every suite shows the shortwave digging further south. Which is the most important piece because having a low track overhead isn't going to work. The current -AO tank wasn't modeled well so it makes sense that this is trending further south. It also has a gulf connection so moisture can be tapped well west of us. It's very unlikely to morph into a significant event but it has potential for something modest. Like .25-.50 qpf all snow or something like that. Nothing else worth watching rn so it's all we got.

My winter storms books mention that we often score when the NAO relaxes to a less negative state. If we're gonna get a big one this year I think it'll be just as this cold pattern is getting ready to flip and then we get our storm followed by warm temps.

12z crap misses round up: NAM: RGEM:

Snow showers if they hold together heading in from the north. Sun has given way to clouds.

Low of 24, just got above freezing after noon.

I know but the Kuchera is not available on Pivotal weather.

Winter Storm Warning for mountains

No- very similar. Use kuchera

And in this case, V-Day and PD are on the same weekend, lol

Great Euro run for WNC and better for Triangle

Is that like the -8 isotherm?

AIFS was steady and did not move south again. Great! Great Euro run too!

I thought it would improve.

goes without saying 10:1 is not the ratio to use for this storm

That looks more like the AI GFS just farther north.

Somehow only a 5 mile tick se

Nah. They go by the NBM. We will be lucky to even get a WWA.

Best. Nap. Ever. After my first, I asked the anesthesiologist if he could come by my house around bedtime...

Euro AI has been consistent with the QPF

20 below Zero wind-chill. Good GOD.

The ratios are different. You need to use Kuchera for this storm .

Perhaps Brooklynn99 can post images???

Your failure is complete...

Also still taking global and ensembles over the short term modeling because its prettier is still not the wisest thing to do, but let's see what happens.