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Still looks ok for here. Ugly for NE. It will undoubtedly change one way or the other in October.

I like the EURO better than the CANSIPS due to the handling of ENSO and the extra tropical Pacific...as I have been saying....but I don't think it will be that bad. Compromise between the two for snowfall. Probably heavily EURO on temps.

Thank you. Yes, that makes sense and it’s clear that there are many days where the mercury exceeds freezing.

Check my edit....huge +EPO, despite big -NAO.

Just can’t escape the rain in these parts, big Labor Day tournament this weekend delayed two games and rained out tonight’s games in Milford. Already 2” of rain this month, 27” since July 1.

Oh. Do you have a link?

That's the August run...September is UGLY.

As a near coastal resident who was directly affected heavily by FIVE H/TS 2016-24, I’m very much enjoying the break from the stress of threats! However, looking back at the 6 other El Niño seasons with <4.4 ACE through Sep 6th tells me to still be cautious for the rest of the season, especially late Sept through mid-Oct: 1) 1941: -TS TX/LA border mid Sep -H TX late Sep -TS Windwards/MH Honduras/Nicaragua/H Belize late Sep -H NW Bahamas/MH S FL/H FL Pan early Oct -TS SE Bahamas/FL Big Bend mid Oct 2) 1929: -MH NW Bahamas and S FL tip/H FL Pan late Sep 3) 1914: -TS FL/GA border mid Sep 4) 1905: -TS Belize/LA late Sep -TS W Haiti early Oct -TS LA early Oct 5) 1904: -H upper SC mid Sep -TS Belize early Oct -H C Cuba/S FL mid Oct -TS FL Pan early Nov 6) 1876: -H/Leewards/MH VI and PR/H Hisp/E Cuba/NC mid Sep -TS Windwards late Sep/H Nicaragua early Oct -H Caymans/MH W Cuba/H Keys and SW FL/TS Bermuda mid Oct These six very quiet first half of season El Niño analogs are suggesting an avg of 3 TCs (range 1-5), including 1.5 H (range 0-3) and 0.8 MH (range 0-2) yet to come that would have significant to major land impacts. Hopefully though it will be most like 1914 or otherwise 1905 at the worst! https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

Gorgeous sunset.

Cooler air has finally arrived. Currently 66 at the house. Looks like the mid to upper 50's for lows in the morning.

Heres euro.

Maybe we are starting to see a pattern change the next several days.The stubborn ridge off Souitheast Asia is semmingly getting shunted East towards the Central Pac per the ensembles,as to where the MJO goes could seemingly just be getting destrucive interference from Rossy/Kelvin closer to the MC,which JMA has been comsistent in showing but the JMA hasnt been doing a spectacular job as of late

Lots of these maps floating around socials

This ain't fair, man. I'll preface this with I am not fully convinced by Alby; I just don't believe in axing a coach after one rookie season. To me, that is not a fair chance by any means; ESPECIALLY when it's not all his fault. Veteran coach would've been better, but they hired Albernaz. But see any other rookie coach would get a minimum of two years, though! And what sunk this season ain't all on him--the bullpen decisions absolutely are. But it's possible that part can get better! The main bulk of what led us here is on Elias/Sig...including the lineups and of course all the analytics. Alby walked into a mess, and being inexperienced got him the ire of the fanbase and possibly a humiliating one and done. Not the most fair thing in the world, and he could very well improve and do well elsewhere if we fire him. I mean frickin' Joe Maddon praised the hire (along with others). Hard to believe they were all wrong and this is as good as Alby gets.

That chart is roughly 5C higher than the one I posted, 8C vs 3C for 2026 for instance. The 5C difference makes sense given the 900m elevation difference in the elevation basis of the estimates.

Yup.

Looking at satellite loops of the tropical Atlantic it looks like June 6th convection-wise not September 6th.

WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER

I think you mean era, but yeah. I am sure he is happy to be a part of...this. lol.

Some hurricane models now have it close enough for sustained hurricane winds.

Glorious 75 out. Had dinner on the deck.

There's no longer mention of any ring of fire pattern in the local forecast discussion, but they do mention gusty winds ramping up on wednesday and lasting into thursday afternoon along with increasing chances for thunderstorms. At this point in time, it looks that timing will keep severe limited according to the nws.