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  2. AIFS isn't really that far off of the gfs @ h5 and it definitely improved in the upper levels. Not what we want but a decisive trend in the right direction.
  3. DC is up to .1 inch on the EURO AI, baby steps!
  4. 18z GEFS slightly improved from 12z. Plenty of time still .
  5. Yeah, I mean it’s not awesome, but it didn’t get worse.
  6. Did you look at hh 500's? That was definately a nicer look.
  7. Even with the dual lows, It didn't chase the one to the east this run, But convection plays many games.
  8. Coming soon to an Ocean near you. Well let's hope for better than that -- this could be anywhere from a K-U monster to a fish storm although I believe s.e. VA will score big no matter what.
  9. I've been wondering if the Southeast forum has a pbp guy... or is that Brick?
  10. What's interesting on that GFS run is that the heavy convection was to the north and northwest, while the storm took an eastward track. Usually we see these setups where it chases the heavy convection to the east of the center and we lose out. That's why I'm not buying this eastward track.
  11. A monkey can get a snowfall forecast with a 6" range correct 18-24 hours out. Mount Holly did not do a good job with the last storm.
  12. So far, an ass hair wester with what should be our formative close low at 48. Money shots start at 72
  13. Canadian Parallel doesn't count? Would be a solid warning hit at least up to 84. But the old OP is further SE.
  14. does anyone doubt the AI gfs/euro? I know they're vastly different but have that same vibe, regardless of region N-S. Different flavor of same storm
  15. Can some one give us the play by play but just use patrick mahomes analogies like you’re cris collingsworth .
  16. The GEFS AI is definitely showing a westward trend with the moisture
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