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Honeymoon PTSD?

my thinking too...hope that is overdone. doesn't look like a ton of convection associated with this across the SE

Thank you…I couldn’t agree more.

I think we get buried.

These long duration events are great. 12hrs+ of snow will end up yielding ~4” here. I’ve crossed a parental rubicon tonight. My 4 year old was actually helpful shoveling the driveway.

SST changes are pushing the warm pool east. This may help to favor MJO waves pushing into our more favorable phases through the winter, at least to some degree.

Listen you know me and I am 85% of the time Euro but all these claims of improvement to the degree as to reduce doubt , increase confidence is bullshit.

Pretty strong momentum build up in the tropics ongoing with the MJO wave. I saw Webb saying that he thinks this will help keep the -PNA at bay for a while longer.

And the guidance seems to want to put the restrengthening vortex over Canada for much of the next few weeks so we keep the cold close even with it strengthening. People need to realize how some of our best cold can happen this way.

Looks like some kind of convective mesolow. That’s like 50kt sustained.

Anyway, had a look at guidance and I can see some signs for optimism with this, but verbatim it looks just 2-3 F too warm to give much snow in the urban areas, could start off as snow and end as snow with sleet and rain during most of the event, 33-35 F zone would mix considerably. The optimism comes from the antecedent conditions getting a chill from the current snow event going through the GL region chilling the boundary layers of the arctic high following in ahead of your Tuesday storm. Also it does not look like very robust warm air advection is likely. If it would shift 50-100 miles south and the 540 dm thickness would stay south of JFK that would be ideal for accumulations of 5-8 inches with this but I think those are going to fall around POU into w CT.

4-8 still in play for many. Although 8 is a big stretch even if things go well. This is a quick event.

yup...and too much data created to "save people time" while degrading forecasting skill. Hey, why do I have to spend an hour or two assessing all the critical factors which influence snowfall totals when I can just pull up a 10:1 map, call it a forecast, then blame the model for being wrong when it doesn't pan out. Or significant tornado parameter map is showing widespread values of 4-5...let's go with tornado outbreak! its gross.

the end of the 18z euro was quite intriguing. our second threat is less than a week away already!

There ya go! I will argue now this is the best Thanksgiving event in my lifetime. The competition was 1975 when it hit the Wednesday before. But it was followed by warmth and gone and was essentially slop .

So some folks are tossing the Euro , EPS , AI , AIFS and NAM. And siding with GFS and Reggie . Interesting to say the least

Euro shows all of us at 4-6 on the 18z run…let’s hope das is right?

There is just too much data.

Forecast models haven't gotten worse, what has gotten worse over the last decade is forecasting skill and a large part of that is due to all of these ridiculous products which have supplemented the actual forecast process. So many convective events in the Plains hyped up because of supercell composite and significant tornado crap, snow maps, etc. It's all run to snow maps, QPF output, etc. which more often than not will not produce an accurate assessment and then when they don't verify, its cry and blame models rather than taking personal responsibility.

I would definitely lose it if I get skunked, and interior se MA has a nice event.

Barely a dusting here. Not even enough to cover the leftover leaves I didn’t pick up…. 6-8” here seems extremely unlikely unless we get some crazy 1”/hr rates late tonight. We are hours from the heavy bands from what I can see on the radar. I hope I’m wrong!

Hit that in a heartbeat.

I am.

Hmm wish we lived at 5H. Ye @das throw up qpf mslp temp surface level comparisons