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Looks like horse shit. Hopefully it’s just being the NAM and one of its random clown solutions. But it’s never been bullish about this threat.

Nam looks like a miss for Sunday

nam has got to be the worst model there is. No wonder they're discontinuing it

Yep

Looks worse than 6z

Might actually be worse than 6z

Yeah looks meh. Of all models that should be the most bullish you’d think.

Not sure Nam will do it.

Yes—just don’t want to get stuck in the middle with the worst of both worlds. Too far west Saturday, not west enough Sunday. As it stands though it seems like it’s playing out like I thought. Bring the C-2 line up and in. Most potential in NW CT.

Did your head do this?

12z NAM even more slightly juiced for tonight-tomorrow .

If euro holds I would expect advisories for some in northern Maryland. I can’t believe eastern Pa hasn’t put any up. Models been hitting there for days.

We need to “buy” ourselves about 3-5 hours for that vort to curl in before getting shoved E. Like you said, that 06z gfs at 66 hours was trying but then it just doesn’t have the time to really go to town before getting crunched east. The way we buy ourselves a little time is to really sharpen the trough so that lead vort energy gets shoved north into S Canada or near N NY border at 60h instead of slicing across VT/central NY acting like a brick wall.

NAM came back down south east a bit for tomorrow , closer to HRRR now, 3km still NW outlier

The biggest issue is widespread drought. It has picked up steam this winter regardless of weather pattern. Reminds me of 17-18 which was so cold at times but the STJ was not there. The other thing is the northern stream is out of sync with the STJ…meaning its vortices are not connecting with STJ impulses. I see some signs of that relenting after the 25th. I am not sure how long that window lasts. Some modeling has Feb holding a SE trough w a PNA ridge. The GOA low is present on some modeling late, but generally that has been a red herring. I still remain optimistic that we see wintry conditions. There is a lot of cold air in modeling right now. I have to think we score with that on the table.

Get that garbage out of here man. Snowy maps only Haha

Mesos seem to agree on a stripe of 2-4” somewhere between Philly and the Poconos tomorrow. The question is where exactly does it set up? I’m feeling pretty good in Allentown but the Poconos could do particularly well because of their elevation.

Did you all see the wreck in Cookeville yesterday on I 40? They had a very heavy squall move through that initially melted, and then froze back causing terrible situation. .

As beautiful as that run was the other night, that 6z run has fully erased that x10. Back to back WTOD. We may need to pull it out after that. Worst nightmare for us. I made that one below a couple years ago...

milder with less qpf

My low was 12 this morning. My high yesterday was 23. Cataloochee has been making snow non stop since 10 PM Wednesday night. The mountain looks awesome and ready for the busy Holiday Weekend!

One of the analogues that I continued to see back in late summer to early fall for this winter was 2013-14. (I think) lol .

Wow pleasant surprise with the overnight guidance. Given the time frame we're entering hopefully those trends are an indication of where we're headed. Definitely want to see the Euro with a bit of a bigger shift at 12z. Still need a bit of work but its doable at this range.

3k Nam closer to reality probably.

It might not be. Euro has 2” and it’s been increasing each run. These are the sneak systems that can ramp up in the last 24 hrs. Let’s bring this one home.