All Activity

It’s weak wave along a boundary . Usually south

45% wind today for the I-95 corridor and thus an enhanced wind risk. Impressive EML pushing into us. Someone is going to get a solid storm.

Kind of a strong smell of smoke out there this morning.

I really hope you are correct with your forecast . I remain highly skeptical of that much rain over a large area. I can think of a bunch of scenarios over the years modeled like this.. and that’s not how it ended .

The bolded is certainly impressive, and surprising.

These always trend north

NWS lowered my point and click to 102F for today.

Stop the count! Seriously, though, I’m going to rack up some departures today since I went too cool so it is still wide open.

CSU MLP supports the 45%

I’ll move our conversation over to banter. I fundamentally agree with you on the doom narrative of climate change or that the environment collapsing is bad. It sets people up to no longer believe in those crisises when the world doesn’t end. Nihilism doesn’t really promote people taking action to cause change. However, I think it’s important to recognize that we both know, you as an expert and myself as a student, that 1.5+ degree C change will be bad. There is no arguing that it is warmer than before the Industrial Revolution. Additionally, there is no arguing that greenhouse gases are responsible for the majority of this increase. Finally, there is no arguing that this increase has, and will continue, to exacerbate increasingly damaging events. The last four sentences aren’t a political narrative, they’re just our scientific understanding of the atmosphere as a fluid body. I recognize that you know more about it than me, so if my logic there was wrong please let me know. The scientific part said, it is frustrating to have people come up to me and say “oh it’s hot because of climate change”. I get that. We need better communication on what it is - an exellerant to extreme patterns - and what it is not - the sole cause of all weather. My last point I want to emphasize as someone who wants to go into environment policy: the ozone hole or acid rain “scares” were extremely detrimental. It is only because of that fear and the groundbreaking legislative effort, both abroad and at home, that we live in a timeline where the ozone hole is a little known fact and confined to the poles. It is because of that effort that acid rain is nonexistent in the US. It is because of that effort and clean air act that our AQI has been in the green despite being trapped under summer ridging. I’ve never known the world my grandparents describe where in summer the sun was dim with smog. It’s important to remember that these are policies that if removed, or gutted, we can and will go back to a more polluted and less healthy planet.

NWS was showing (whether or not it gets expanded) most of New England not even in a level 1 for severe; most was confined to SW CT.

Oxford CT washed away again?

We just an FB update from Chester’s municipal government noting 76% of the residences are out of power; they are calling in back up road/tree and power crews.

AWOS is pretty bad…especially when Tds start getting up near 70°. Then it seems like they start going up 2° for every 1° reality as they get oversaturated. It gets easy to pick out the ASOS and AWOS stations in IA when they get one of their big summer corn field dewpoint pooling events. ASOS ends up 25-27C and then AWOS is in that 31-32C area. It’s funny seeing 92/89 obs in the afternoon. I remember that JFK day and that it was a high dew day overall. Lots of 77-79 readings and spotty 80+ in the late afternoon down the coast of NJ/DE. JFK was in line with 77-78 most of the day and then had a couple of hours get into the low 80s…82 and 84 on the hourlies IIRC. The temp went down briefly before a slight rebound before evening. There were some TCu around too with the breezy S flow off the water. Maybe a little evap cooling putting a little extra moisture in the air? Not sure. But I’ve seen spikes like that from manned stations pre-ASOS days too with temp recovery after showers/storms.

It's a legit summer nor'easter. Sfc low not that strong, but the pres gradient N of it is quite good for July. Duration coupled w/ sig higher PWATs than other times of the year, and voila!

Widespread soaker? Who said that? Doesn't look all that meaningful north of the pike.

HRRR suggests it could be more than just those regions. I'm just talking decent tstms, not svr.

Enjoy it man. Happy for you.

Thanks for the feedback/input. Climate hype is still rife on social media, and if you look at a lot of MSM news and wx segments, they are still pushing the gloom and doom narrative often. Also, even w/ politics shifted this country, look at a lot of rest of the world and organizations like the UN and WEF. The end of the word narrative from AGW is alive and well still. And going one step further, this is case of "bad news sells," which is apolitical, so that's what drives it a lot. The boogie man changes over time, but its is always there out to get us. In the 70s, it was pollution in general and the ice age coming, in the 80s, it was the ozone layer and acid rain, and by the 90s it switched to climate change and has not looked back. The deniliasm part is merely subset of any problem that exists and is hype or over-promoted. Par for the course. I don't like denialism as a term, as much as I don't like blindly embracing a narrative or ideology. That's a false dichotomy and suggests a lack of critical thinking. As w/ many things, the truth often lies in between. Not exactly 50-50 w/ every issue either, and things are often a lot more complex than they seem w/ no easy answers as well.

Great video of the severe storms moving in yesterday from a boat in New York Harbor.

NYC/ NJ South special

Wagons def south. Convection will rob alot of the moisture . Baroclinic processes basically nil in summer. Folks always fall for these widespread soakers in summer and then get upset with .50

You mean w and sw CT

Looks like DCA had a low of 84. Canaan nwr had a low of 58. Probably felt cold in comparison.