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The last two days worth of GFS operational cycles have been doing this sort of look out there in the la-la range ... new leitmotif. I've found in the spring ( and autumn with cold looks, too - works in either direction), these longer range charts might actually carry some principle value, not daily or per se prognostic skill. Those are two different things. One's conceptualizing a synoptic potential at longer leads, the other is deterministic. Anyway, this next week's "failing" warm up was really exposed similarly to this above... when it too was a long lead. But idiosyncratics about the late winter/early spring hemisphere emerged to suppress, more so the corrected. In other words, I wonder the lower latitude planetary wave distribution is actually warm HA - cool Baja - W SW Atlantic basin... It would be sitting in wait for the "idiosyncractics" of late winter and early spring to pull away...

I'm with you too...we could be setting the stage for some early April heat. For as cold and chilly we have been here...there has been some anomalous warmth off to our southwest and it's not something that has been brief spurts either. Unless something major happened to kind of move away from this across the south, the only thing which has presented us from tapping into this has been the configuration in the Arctic. Relax that and we open the gates.

I’ll be in VA next week. Looking forward to the warm weather down there. We need next week’s thaw here desperately.

IMO trying to use/apply a single decade's worth of data is a fool's errand. There's too much background noise there in the ENSO and solar cycles. IMO anything meaningful with regards to changes in the rate of increase would need to be over at least a 20-year period, or even 30. That said "meaningful" here I equate with "strong evidence". 10-year data isn't totally meaningless - it's worth at least eyebrow-furrowing when it indicates something unusual. I just wouldn't use it to make a statement to the effect of "this shows that the rate of warming is increasing".

Canada gives us some good temps. WRF FV3 as well

Yep. Just the big dirt ice piles to look forward to. Probably take several days or more of 70s to get rid of those.

Interesting... I did not know you could do that. I will definitely look into this website more

I know what you're getting at... It's the difference between a well mixed warm sector with amorphous WCB trafficking strata and more DP related warmth. It's 64/57 below the warm front and E of the main b-c axis. That kind of warm up is impressive probably more so in the DP/ thermodynmaic quotient. The kinetic side of the temp is hugely above normal but not out of control in this kind of warm up. The other kind, the big dawg warming events that are more index correlated ... those are ridge dome deals with larger scale DVM compression through an unseasonably early 850 mb to surface kinetic layer. The actual thermodynamic quotient of the atmosphere is surprisingly low... 75/27 type thing... Moisten that air mass and it's 44 F beat the red head step child weather. Those kind of larger planetary wave things are related to the loss of polar index/mass field modulations on the mid latitudes, and when the air is dry and there's 850 mb anomalies rattling around in the ridge, the kinetic ceiling is high. Which by the way...either tends to proceed a -NAO burst. All that warmth then terminates at high latitude and there's a height growth up there.

Was able to get a measure of ice at 1/16" with the trees having a little more. Ugly stuff but picturesque. Lost power for a little more than a 1/2 hr, too, just a bit ago.

2.5" since 7 AM here. Surprise! Looks like a rare boom.

What is this crap? Worst weather week of my life.

Go bold

White St Paddy’s day. Sure I’m in. You can add white to any holiday.

The snow banks are getting ridonkulous even though we’re only near the seasonal normal now. This is the new high water mark.

dewpoints will be close to 50-55 that will do the dirty work not to mention full sun early next week

1.78" from this storm. Snow pack still holding strong. 60% coverage. Hopefully shes gone by sunday.

Just going from memory here but one major difference between those extremely anomalous warm periods is there was tremendous support within the Arctic domain...meaning there was little or nothing to fight back again the building heights or compress them. Also, notice with those periods too is those patterns didn't really come with fronts readily advancing across the eastern third of the country...it's a much different story building heights naturally (such a a response to lowering heights upstream a.ka. west trough) versus forcing heights to build due to say a propagating front. When you get cold fronts traversing the OV and into the Northeast, more than likely there will be at least one wave developing along the front and that's what ultimately screws us in the warm sector department, particularly when the look across eastern Canada favors to squash said low.

On the brochure for why you stay away from New England springs it reads, "It's great! Warm enough for nothing interesting but cold enough to eff us from nice weather. This is for Mar-early May."

I would not be the least bit surprised if a backdoor front passes by at least part of the area on Tuesday..

Went up to Shenandoah and watched the sun rise above the inversion with a friend! Hiked up to Mary’s rock and then the mid level clouds broke and it got sunny. Could see the mist try to build and make its way up the mountain. At the top it was mid 60s and within 5 miles it was 50s and grey.

Gfs is great. Warm enough for nothing interesting but cold enough to eff us from nice weather. This is for Wednesday.

Agreed...this is what Will and said a week ago... probably just ends up no side of the warm season/cool season debate taking a trophy

38 here in Allentown and 62 in Pittsburgh.

Don't threaten me with a good time..

I hope so-the AIFS being right but we know how these backdoor setups usually go this time of year and even into May some years-they’re more aggressive than models show 100+ hours out. And the waters have a long way to go to start warming up. Jones Beach has been 35-36 degrees the last few days. That’ll make itself felt any way it can.