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Record warmth continues

Once the Niño starts to weaken, there should be a return of the sst warmth back west with the trade's influence increasing. Of course, it won't be overnight, which is why a weakening of the Niño sooner than later improves our chances of decent snowfall imho.

Could you share where you find this map?

The CANSIPS and JMA have been further NW, but those models are off this year, I think. My extra tropical Pacific composite also hints at that possibility, but it's looking less likely now. We'll see....still time for region 4 to get back in the game and it should, eventually.

looks like a gloriously dewless forecast setting up as far as the eye can see, except for overnight Wednesday into Thursday, after which drier air more comfortable air returns

Windows finally open in the mornings, nice

Low 60s along the South River. Gorgeous morning

Of course aerating and overseeding lawn and he decides to show up for the month

Seems like modeling has been putting the ridge SE of Hudson Bay for a while. You can see it in the monthly temp forecasts off the Cfs2 as well as the snowfall forecast off the Euro with reduced snow along the coast from NE down into NC. Cfs2 temps https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

Yea, it's gone more east-based than I had envisioned, NVM guidance...which was way off. I don't love that, but like I have been saying, I don't think it makes much of a difference when it's this strong. If anything, it probably helps to limit any residual MC influence that would destructively interfere with potemtial big storm windows. So, while that probably puts the nail in the coffin on any hopes of avoiding a pretty mild season, it may paradoxically help in terms of landing that big fish. I may have to shift from a basin-wide to east-based composite, which makes it more likely that the mean ridge ends up se of Hudson Bay.

Point is those "freak" storms are pretty common in this magnitude of El Nino....Feb 1983, January 2016 (which only grazed me), Dec 1997. The deck will be stacked in favor of a big fish, sorry I can't guarantee it will rake everyone. The southeast doesn't look +4 to me.

Hawaii is getting insanely lucky with Lowell. That’s a beast of a system

Very warm week this week with a mild down for the weekend

Next wave coming off Africa has some decent ensemble support for development at least early on…

Yeah. They were noticeable during our fire out session last night. Not as bad as other times but I can’t wait for them to die

Crazy. It's 54 up on the Tug Hill. We're getting a taste of summer in Upstate NY. Beautiful out there.

Yeah, beautiful out there, 48 here but it won't kill the mosquitoes....they are horrendous right now

Got into the 40's all the way to the shore of Buzzard's Bay. Impressive.

UH OH, looks like we got a bad model run

Hoodie needed in the Berks this AM, no complaints here. Currently 53 here, 57 back home in HPN.

My low was 48.4 but a PWS Davis near me recorded 43.7 Should be beautiful later today Finally some CoC

47F here in E CT as well

The latest relative weekly for Nino 1+2 comes in about where I expected, +3.9. This for the 2nd week in a row is at a record high (back to 1981) for the week, warmer than 1997’s +3.6 and 0.4 warmer than the previous week’s +3.5. The highest relative 1+2 on record for any week is +4.6 (1983) and the highest relative in 1997 for any week was +4.1, which was set twice. Regarding the relative for other regions, Nino 3 warmed barely while 3.4 and 4 stayed the same. The changes overall mean an even more E based Nino than the prior week showed: 9AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 26AUG2026 3.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 02SEP2026 3.9 2.7 1.8 0.1 For comparison: 03SEP1997 3.6 2.8 2.0 0.4 So, early Sept. ‘26 is slightly more E based than the previous most E based early Sept. (back to 1981) of 1997. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

58 imby. 57 at bwi.

And near 80 this afternoon. Warm baby