All Activity

That's Chill's old house.

Euro looks like a solid 2 tp 3 inches for a lot of the area. I'm starting to get excited -- this is looking like a decent advisory-level event. We really need to cash in with this one before we flip to a milder pattern late next week. It's nice that the snow will stay on the ground with very little melting for a few days.

That doesn’t cause high ratios. You want temps between -12 and -18C in the clouds where snowflakes are made which promotes good snow growth, and plenty of moisture/lift in that layer. If temps are higher or lower it will hurt ratios. I remember a few times temps were in the low 20s or even teens but we had tiny sand or needle flakes that were 10-1 ratio.

We have 2 things that have to go nearly perfectly with this storm: 1. The storm needs to develop in time and not shift north 2. We have marginal surface temps with little margin for error Hopefully we get lucky but its thread the needle

Euro has been largely consistent in showing a general 2-4" for much of the Philly metro the past few runs with upwards of 5" in localized spots. Berks, Lehigh, Northampton probably 1-3" but this is one of those setups where you can get a strong fronto band on the NW side of the precip shield as the upper level jet shifts towards the area under the favorable right entrance region. I think the precip shield would actually expand a bit further northwest than what the Euro shows with isentropic glide along the frontal boundary as the TPV drops in from the south. However, that same TPV is pushing everything along and out to sea so it's a fine balance between the flow buckling and getting that precip shield to expand vs everything shunted east.

Well, a second interpretation of the fact that most recent years are below trend is that the trendline isn't capturing all of the variation and there may have been a recent acceleration.

These days, the blog ends up dropped into the toilet, after ma nature defecates on our collective grapes.

The 12z Euro 2” for NYC would be a nice little event.

most exciting weather upcoming will be the landslides in the PAC NW next week

Seeing a strong Ukie, I thought the euro would follow

Euro didn’t even look that different from other guidance. It was a little skimpier on QPF down near Cape but honestly, when is it not? GFS trended NW but it’s actually still a considerably worse outcome than the Euro. Euro has been a bit too far south on multiple systems so far so it doesn’t take a lot of mental gymnastics to think this could verify a little more favorable than it’s currently depicting. I’d like to see GFS keep bumping NW though.

I’d give it to 00z. Will only take a bump to make it a little better, we’re pretty close now. Not really expecting any moves

I love Eric from snowy Maine piling on like a cheerleader with the "100" emoji

We are in the game...but it's hard to get excited at all when the margin for error is so thin. Which has been true of most of our threats lately which is why I've not been to active tracking things until inside 48 hours.

Had everyone reeled in for a few hours

Skynet looks a smidge better.

Well, I said give it until mid month....this failure gets us there. Barring the prexmas miracle event, I'm marching inexorably towards placing a neon 1989 at the top of my xmas tree waiting for the ball to drop, hopefully on my fucj(king skull and putting me out of my misery.

As we all know, La Niña favors a weaker than average southern jet and we’re solidly into La Niña (per the MEI/RONI). So, this is totally expected based on ENSO. I wouldn’t be surprised if it averages weaker than normal the rest of the winter. That’s the best bet. But as is normal, there are usually short periods of increased S jet from time to time even in La Niña just like there are usually short periods of weak S jet in El Nino.

It was growing up. Enjoy the snowy Sunday morning

Euro hr 51, 1031 H in the center of our precipitation lol make it make sense

You do have to admit it’s pretty fitting for the last several years, even if the ceiling on this storm was low. Everything beefs up, and then the euro comes out and says coatings, which it will nail. The frustration is understandable

Kevin claims December used to be our best winter month.

all levels will be below freezing during the storm!

One thing to add and I haven't looked at SSW maps today. It has been my experience that when we see a big WAR(western Atlantic ridge for the new folks), that ridge often precedes significant SSW events, especially if the ridge is anomalous. That WAR will also often preceded HL blocking as well. I don't have the lag on that, but I would guess 2-3 weeks and the bottom comes out.

I hear you, I’m beyond frustrated at this point. We just can’t get anything to go right. Like you said, the euro will nail this one after being complete garbage last week.