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Cut grass today. Last time for the summer?

Ray?

For now at least we look to just be on the northern fringe of the heat. We'll see how that looks as we get closer. Heat looks fierce from roughly D.C. area south and southwest. Carolinas and southeast look to bake under intense upper level ridge. Maybe enough of an offshore trough to give us a slightly less hot NW flow at least initially. If ridge position is more north and east the heat will surge in but as it looks now the worst of the heat could be held at bay and only last for 2-3 days mid to late late next week.

Shifted way South

Ray, good job with the analysis. Like always, hoping things shift that will favor a colder outcome for east of the rockies. Amo and Pdo could be very important.

Webbed hands of Stein have reached the server room.

If we can get a +pdo and some semblance of a -amo, we may be in good shape this winter

Its too far out to know anything. It should be cooler due to clouds and rain. Always fun to speculate. 2015-16 was +qbo east-central based.

It’s been like this several weeks. Worse by the day

Cloudflare bad gateway 18Z says no rain on Saturday.

Nailed it. Mirror image of the Reflective Pool.

We have our best guy on it right now

Some of this is almost certainly the GFS doing GFS kinds of things (i.e., too hot especially after day 5). The GFS does this frequently in summer. It could easily be 5-10 F too hot. I’d bet heavily against it being this hot. Quite hot is likely but not this hot. Edit: the lagging issue here isn’t getting any better. It’s terrible! I’ve been here since it started in 2010 and can’t recall any tech issue worse than this.

This thing is full struggle bus today.

Yes!!! And not done at HR 60. WB 18Z 3K NAM

In honor of the 250th anniversary of this country…we are bringing you internet speeds similar to 25.0 years ago.

Cansips looks wrong…but if it is correct, we would be in business. Got a feeling it changes just a bit during future runs. But I hope not.

79F/DP 62F Under 90...

QBO should pop positive, right? Teleconnections are iffy right now. Storm track might be marginal help. Super Nino patterns are generally warm here with a random, highly localized big snow in somebody’s backyard. Might be the MJO is our best bet with warm water over 8-2-1. It might balance out the poor QBO alignment.

@dendrite Server/VM needs to be rebooted. It doesn't appear to be a network issue. Probably some service is hogging memory or cpu.

With mid to upper 90s on tap next week….winter with temps in the 50s all winter doesn’t seem so bad. LOL. As for the slow down…it‘s hot and this forum doesn’t do AN temps in the summer. LOL. I figured I would go w a winter thread since the current pattern is a snoozer. It will crank up soon enough!

NBM which does really well on temps is mid-90s with some 97 and 98s. I was skeptical its first year or two. A mid-range high-res ensemble? Well the NBM has performed very well both winter and summer high demand weather. Guess it'll bust occasionally like anything, but I'm optimistic we can avoid widespread 100s. That said, somebody will get there. Also humidity will be atrocious. Also regardless of anything heat index 100-110 will be hazardous. We are not acclimated yet after the modest start to summer.