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For those who are hoping for a cold Feb in the E US, Eric Webb just a little while ago posted these increasingly positive takes: “It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño. Notice the recurrent appearance of westerly wind anomalies over the Western Pacific (warm colors). Unlike most Nina winters that usually end up being very mild in February, seeing this change in the base state already occurring tells me that this winter has a few tricks up its sleeves.” ———— “Fwiw, I separated winters that preceded cool ENSO (cold neutral or Nina) >> El Niño transition by “cold” and “warm” Februarys on the East Coast and looked at their OLR/convective anomalies in the Tropical Pacific IMHO, given how much the Warm Pool has already advanced eastward, this year is leaning towards the “cold” February group with more convective activity or -OLR anomalies (cool colors) over the tropical West Pacific and tropical North Pacific, with a slightly weaker and eastward shifted area of +OLRa (decreased cloudiness, warm colors) near the International Dateline.” ————— “IMHO, we have opened the door to the possibility of 2014 style Feb this year with how the low frequency state is evolving in the Pacific.”

Patience is the key here. The CFS weeklies and Euro weeklies all showed a relaxation after New Year's with a change back to a colder pattern afterwards. The Euro weekly nailed the cold temps in Dec and this upcoming warm up back in early Dec. Let's enjoy a little bit of a thaw and see what comes on the other side of it. The weeklies show another several weeks of favorable conditions are incoming after it. I don't always have faith in the long term "climate" models but their 500mb depictions since December have been in the ballpark.

Its won’t until it does. Then it will deliver the goods. Seen it and lived it. I’m in but out at the same time.

Haha. The 18z GEFS on WX Bell has found the cold!!! EPO doin’ the work…

let's get some ice!

Currently: Cloudy. Calm. 21.2F

100 miles east and I’ll take it with zero complaints!! .

South shore in January vibes.

High of 49, low of 39. Picked up .18" today.

Check out the videos he posted!!

Gefs showing a signal on Jan 11-12 for a post-cutter wave that could work for us. Spacing needs some work though

WWLT

The ridge is still probably too far west on the GEFS though. I don't think that is what happens but if it did that is not a KU or coastal setup really, its again very 93/94 like but I think if you're Philly north you take that

Quick 0.5" of fluff. Looking at 2-4" tomorrow.

That’s the bigger takeaway.

lol...congrats. Does she still have that place? Sikesville?

Lock it in

The 18z GFS is again honking w/ overrunning and the AIFS Euro is similar. Those tracks and setups will change at this point...but at least modeling is throwing out some good solutions.

we are always the 1 time

I at least I make sure the NAM has it before a thread is started. I mean at least it's something to look at. Like watching fish in an aquarium.

That's what's important at the moment, but I haven't actually had time to look myself

@Ji they fixed the GFS for you

Are we so back yet?

First GFS fantasy storm in how many days?? And lookee lookee GEFS looks like euro ai ensembles now.

Ensembles look really good