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It comes down to the position of the ridge, which should be over se Canada, so I doubt it will be too warm in the NE. Maaaaaaybe the se.......

Never argue with a March map like that one! Lol It has been consistent fwiw.

Euro was too cool in 23/24 in the east, then too warm in 24/25 and again last winter. I really don't know what to think about this winter except it's a bit warmer than Jamstec, Cfs2, NMME and JMA. I think the Cansips is a bit behind the curve and will eventually look like the rest of seasonal modeling, more or less.

Check out this insanity: the latest 3 day mean CFSv2 has not just the most negative H5 anomalies of DJFM in March but even the absolutes are the most negative! And it’s been that way on a good # of 3 day means! Dec: highest H5 absolutes and anomalies of DJFM: March: lowest H5 absolutes and anomalies of DJFM as they steadily cool from Dec to March! The absolutes for March are 5-15 dm lower than that for Dec over most of the E US! Does this look reasonable? The 2m absolutes aren’t the coldest though although they’re not far off in some portions. I couldn’t find a Nino with the coldest absolutes of the winter in March though I found many with a solidly cold March. The only winters on record with the coldest absolutes of NDJFM being March in the E US overall are 1890, 1932, and 1960 (all non-Nino). I guess we’re due fwiw.

lol

51 for the low

Try the model output for today instead of 5 days ago

Yes. as of today they have increased the chance of further formation to 40 to 60% In the next seven days, and it's moving W to WNW. We may end up having to keep an eye this puppy.

I missed that one, got a link to what's showing that?

For the most part, but I could see a good 3 week stretch between mid January and mid February we're that could be decent retention. 1983 was like that.

This is what I mean...seasonal guidance isn't that different, regardless, but like I said, the EURO is probably most realistic.

I would imagine we don't have those long stretches of snow on the ground even if we hit normal snowfall. Seems likely if we have good storms the snow wont stick around long. I had snow on the ground for most of last winter.

Should someone start a thread about next week? A sub 965 low pressure is nothing to joke about anytime of the year.

wouldn't mind an extended shorts and hoodie season right through Thanksgiving..maybe beyond?

Sitting outside having lunch. It’s gorgeous.

not only is it the most unfavorable, this is the most extreme example of it we've ever seen

you are all free to tell me why the most historically unfavorable enso state is going to be better this time

I take that comment as good luck. I've been humbled to many times by mother nature to ever say something like that lol

I'd ask if you're willing to bet your reputation on it....but

Sure was. Styles blowing up Barkley on the one was epic

Yeah he’s regressed which is surprising. Good first year coming off a national championship with Michigan. He might not have been asked to do as much and just played. I wonder if given how bad the D was the last two years he’s still playing like he has to do more than he should. That was the biggest issue. Players out of position because others not doing their job. Like he has to learn to trust his skills and others again. He has skill. Needs to get right mentally

Nice thundery early morning yielded 1.45" here.

Just what we do not need here.