All Activity

That lightest gray patch is a bit north of you, and right over me. It's surprising how often modeled snowfall includes that Fryeburg-Danforth hole. Fortunately, it doesn't verify all that often.

That map looks highly suspect...

Yesterday’s (11/26) EPS 2 week MJO forecast through Dec 10th: was then curling back away from 8 after barely getting into it and we were wondering whether it would ever get back to phase 8: Yesterday’s (11/26) EPS extended, which adds 12/11-27: had a 15+ day phase 8 12/13-27, which would be the 2nd longest phase 8 on record for any month (2nd only to the 18 day long phase 8 of Dec-Jan 1975-6) and the more favorable for cold weak to moderate amp to boot:

37 for the low. Another weak sauce cool shot.

Wow ai ensembles lol. Absolute eye candy. Do I fall for it? Hook line and sinker!!! U know the drill.

High is in a bad spot. Southeast winds just eroding the cad.

Amazing how quite You were amazingly quiet yesterday.

Happy Thanksgiving friends!

It’s a coastal, but some of the mid level dynamics are still WAA biased initially. It does try to back and close off higher up as it gets over ME.

There’s a standing wave there (near Maritime Continent). Not hard to figured out why either with +30C SSTs. Thermodynamics 101. The atmosphere will always put the strongest and most persistent convection over the warmest waters…..

Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS 2 week through 12/10: was then curling back away from 8 and we were wondering whether it would ever make phase 8: Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS extended, which adds 12/11-12/27: it turned out that it made phase 8 for an 8 day period (12/13-20), which would be longest phase 8 since Feb of 2019’s 9 day long ph 8 and the longest Dec ph 8 since Dec of 1989’s 10 day long ph 8:

Only model that far south so it’s an outlier.

Happy Thanksgiving!

I’m showing the ens. I keep hearing random chatter that they’ve got a broken output but nobody has offered any proof, so I’ll choose to ignore it. Looks plausible to me…

The one posted is the Ai ensemble mean .

That's odd. Operational shows this on Pivotal.

Happy Thanksgiving y'all! Started out at 21 this morning in Wolf. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Live or die with our AI overlords.

Ok so it’s not a true coastal on that depiction then? Kind of a hybrid?

Same to you @strongwxnc! Everyone enjoy the turkey and the first taste of winter.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Get those snow blowers going, hoping to get in some early December

Peeking at the latest gfs… H7 doesn’t close off or really even back…SW flow and plenty of WAA up there until the trof axis passes. H85 does. Kinda has that front ender look initially with closed off low levels. If you look at H85 it looks like the primary wants to cut west and then it jumps quickly eastward to our south.

This would be nice

KFIT reached 63. I got into the upper 50s