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lol only destroyed by those who continue to expect op runs to be consistent 10-15 days out. I'll stop contributing to the stupidity by not making anymore posts about what is possible based on an op run. It's pretty ridiculous how so many long time members of a weather forum still don't understand how this works.

I think the ridge over the central US is just too powerful and at some point the negative PNA will force storms into the West Coast, causing the ridge to roll over into the east. By then ,the ridge will be less powerful but still give us above normal temperatures and dryer conditions

Delayed but not denied? Or is this just more of the same from the models showing a big warm up in the extended range only to keep pushing it further out as they have been doing since early fall?

Not sure how long the more hostile pattern will last, but definitely dont see any pattern sustaining itself the rest of winter.

The one thing that makes the Weeklies(any brand) fallible is that they tend to perpetuate the week two pattern - true feedback. That is why it is important not to put to much stock in LR ext modeling unless IMHO they change from that two week pattern. In other words, if the model doesn't continue in perpetuity...that is worth paying attention to. I have seen cold patterns modeled for all six weeks...not even make it into week 3. That also works for warm air masses. So, that is why I like looking at the control which is basically just one big deterministic run.

Over the last few days been some pretty big gust in here ha ha.

Remember when 1/2 of this forum cancelled winter back in October?

Absolutely abysmal for any winter weather prospects. Only storminess will be heading to west coast because of the -PNA. I don’t think we should discount a January 2023 scenario. Cold and snow across conus for most of December 2022, and then late in the month we flipped to a torch and the east stayed like that for rest of winter. The west got record snowfall because of a deep -PNA

Cherry picking some stuff from the Euro Weeklies, though I didn't think the ensemble was half bad!

You can say it....we're due!

Agreed, I know I’m not going to nitpick what constitutes a “torch period” regarding the weather from about yesterday thru the first half of tomorrow or so. Given how potent of a southerly flow this system has that is going to tracking well north of PA, it could definitely be warmer out ahead of it here. LSV might briefly climb into the high 50s prior to FROPA tomorrow morning before a brief but potent return to some below average temps later tomorrow. With that said, we do have an actual torch period setting up through at least the Christmas to New Year’s period… centered on the central US. Really about the only teleconnection we have going for us in this timeframe is a developing negative NAO.. which acts to keep significant warm anomalies at bay in the northeastern US. The degree of which is what modelling is back and forth about. I think in play here in Central PA are a couple of waves that may have enough cold in place to produce some kind of a wintry mix type scenario. But overall looking like more of a transient/brief cold enforcement vs the kind of persistent cold temps we had the first half of the month. I’m overall kind of pessimistic about this period, as I feel the mostly +EPO and now significantly -PNA are going to be a stronger teleconnection influence vs the -NAO/neutral AO. Keeps very cold anomalies bottled up in western Canada and storm track continues to be northern branch dominated with little southern stream action as evidenced here by a very dry southeastern US. GEFS v Euro EPS temp anomalies (10 day avg centered beginning of Christmas week to New Year’s Day)

Not necesssarily warmer temps, but a baroclinic zone with an extreme temp gradient for good forcing/instability and (more importantly) an upper flow that's not hauling ass, so that troughs have enough time to dig & close off.

Thats awful. RIP

He and has family died in a plane crash today in Statesville

Literal blowtorch for nearly the entire CONUS for rest of forseeable future. Absolute abysmal prospects for any cold or snow anywhere in country for next few weeks. Doesn’t show any signs of reversal either. Don’t buy BAM’s hype

Dang what happened?

Still crunchy slippery stuff around. Fell once and looked like an idiot twice but caught myself so total idiot adverted. If Ji didn't punt winter yet I'm still in. Oh wait, snap, it's not even winter yet. 49F, rain on the way and a constant flow of mucus/blowing nose 24/7...

RIP Greg Biffle. He cared far more about Western NC after Helene than every government agency combined.

I'm pretty sure when he says "big snow," he's specifically talking about a big dog (which the bare minimum to qualify IMO, outside the mountains and eastward-facing snow belts, would be 12"). That's just my ha'penny of a contribution to the pedantic conversation as merely an observer from halfway across the country...

RRFS has some big gusts tomorrow too

The crazy thing is since they switched all the airports at the same time, you wouldn't even notice a problem [except relative to your personal station] unless you compared to cooperative station data. If you only compare to other airports, it looks legitimate. PIT is similar to AGC in both months, and warmer than BTP and AFJ. But if you look into the data, you notice PIT/AGC went from warmest by far to middle-of-the-road. BTP and AFJ went from warmer half of the distribution to among the coldest sites.

MJO delivering but pacific won’t let us take advantage. Really wish La Niña would fade a little earlier, maybe we could break this patten quicker

This is even more egregious, and it's been like this month after month. The airport sites (WBAN stations) were uniformly the warmest until the switch and now they are not. Notice especially PIT goes from the warmest station in the entire climate district to middle of the road, dropping from about 3F warmer than the nearby Moon Township NWS office site last December to only about 0.5F warmer this December. Note that the Emsworth site had a lot of missing data in 2024, and that's the only one warmer than the two airports. That's an unexplained 2.5F variance at the first order site versus a reliable cooperative station with no change. It's been like this every single month since the change.