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12Z UKMET similar to 0Z run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 27.0N 83.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 27.0N 83.0W 1012 27 0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 27.2N 82.5W 1010 23 1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.3N 81.3W 1012 29 0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 30.0N 79.1W 1008 31 1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 31.8N 77.6W 1004 39 0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 33.8N 75.5W 1001 41 1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

My wife and I at last night's MLB all star game:

95/71 currently.

Curious--is it on par with a normal cloudy day?

93 imby. I think the smoke/haze is limiting heating at the surface despite high 850mb temps

What a difference from even a few hours ago. Zero smoke, zero smell when I pulled into the office at 8.

Further to my CFSv2 post above, here’s how the CFSv2 did in the E US with their mid-July forecasts for the subsequent JFM: For ‘26 (Nina) too warm For ‘25 (Nina): close NE; too warm SE For ‘24 (Nino): too cold, especially NE For ‘23 (Nina): much too cold, esp. NE For ‘22 (Nina): overall a bit too warm For ‘21 (Nina): a bit too cold For ‘20 (warm neutral): much too cold (similar miss to ‘23) For ‘19 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE For ‘18 (Niña): close For ‘17 (Niña): much too cold (similar miss to ‘20 and ‘23) For ‘16 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE For ‘15 (Nino): much too warm NE, too warm SE For ‘14 (cold neutral): a bit too warm (good forecast but not cold enough) For ‘13 (cold neutral): close For ‘12 (Niña): much too cold (similar to ‘17, ‘20, ‘23) The all important tally for the 15 JFMs of ‘12-‘26 to give us idea of summer CFS bias: 1) NE -Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): 24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12 -Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 5 yrs/33%: 25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) too cold…so not a strong cold bias averaged out where one can take a CFS fcast and assume it will be too cold since only 40% too cold…thus, that wouldn’t be wise 2) SE -Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12 -Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13 Overall, averages a cold bias in the SE, especially since 4 much too cold and none much too warm. OTOH, not a strong cold bias averaged out since only slightly more than 50% too cold; so wouldn’t be wise at all to assume CFS will verify as too cold

Good. We’re overpopulated as it is.

Purslane weeds starting to crop up in the orange glow. Time to blast them

Hammer all over it

need charmin today

95F/DP 74F at 12:35pm

Extra TP wiping the nose ?

As noted by @GaWx in the Tropical forum, a non-zero chance of tropical moisture being drawn up through the SE even if the disturbance doesn't develop. It would be most welcome (as long as it didn't go overboard).

Is that the NFL? That's the only real sport.

Just went outside to grill hot dogs for lunch and wow the smell is insane. Combination of smoke and ass.

The AQI values the HRRR is putting out are incredible. Some spots in the UP and northern lower over 1000 tonight.

DCA is taking advantage of the west wind. Up to 93. Milky sky, but not a ton of irradiance reduction today. 90.5 at home. Likely a late high day as the warm pocket aloft is still advecting in.

Just a coating, I'm sure they're aware. It's all over social media.

DCA into the mid 90s.

Eric Webb is pre-emptively savoring the expected tears of east-coast snow weenies during the impending east-based super Nino

The smoke is saving our lawns !

View from the porch at our cabin in Canada (that’s Lake Huron, hard to even see it))

sun not visible here, and solar production is down about 80% from a normal sunny day