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GEFS is might be a smack down. Already crushing the SE…

Keep the updates coming. Very impressive.

Congrats. Working on our way back to winters of yore when shortwaves queef all over EOR.

canadian shows a much earlier start time around 1am sunday morning, and it's outta here by 7pm sunday meanwhile gfs shows snow starts around 1pm sunday and it snow until about 6am monday. That's a huge difference timeframe wise!

notice how the vort is less involved in the broader trough… way more legit PVA here compared to the previous run as it pivots

The RRFS has a couple inches on Sat. N&W

Need some euro support and I might budget. For now, going with the least snowiest model. Pretty good rule for keeping expectations in check.

canadian shows a much earlier start time around 1am sunday morning, and it's outta here by 7pm sunday meanwhile gfs shows snow starts around 1pm sunday and it snow until about 6am monday. That's a huge difference timeframe wise!

I recall that as a clipper that went 200 miles east of VA, then took a hard left turn....maybe my memory is faulty

When you take a leak at 3:00 am…check back in quick and see what the Euro showed? Lol.

This is going to be at least a warning event for the eastern 2/3 of us or so...at least.

Shit, I HATE getting wrapped into PBP on a week night...tough to sleep. First time all year it warranted it. I'm out-

Stick with ensembles...let's see how the agree with OP run.

Yea, I don't expect those amounts unless it phased perfectly like 12z....but he difference between 12z and 00z was absolute noise at this range.

can you pin the storm thread and call it crusha 2026 or at least just pin it please sir

Can sort of make out that one heavier band the NWS was concerned about possibly making it into eastern Ohio and perhaps parts of Washington County. Nothing too heavy in our immediate area otherwise. Lake enhancement certainly helping out around Cleveland and points east of there.

Wow that’s an ages old remembrance of cold air plunging and something gets going around tx/la and moves right toward us like that purple is pointing to

That one was a slower mover but it’s possible this could have a similar longitude gradient in the snowfall.

While I would love for the GFS Op to score the win..hard to believe anything it's spitting out when it's all alone vs all other models (even it's own AI)

This looks very similar to what it was showing 7 days ago when we were tracking storm number 1

That's still a big jump on the Canadian,low off the coast now with precip in interior areas. Had nothing till tonight.

Concerning issues: 1) sharp cutoff of overrunning precip to east (someone would get burned). This happens a lot with overrunning precip. Then there’s usually a dry slot before surface low takes over 2) models being too aggressive with cold push and trend to slower Arctic front/cold chasing precip/wasted qpf 3) Is the NW trend going to stop? Still 3.5 days out would not be the first time show maps went from Wilmington to Knoxville especially in a Nina base state without blocking

I mentioned Dec 5-6, 1981 to Kev early today....requires a deeper dive but wonder I there is analog potential....ironically enough, the early SSW was very like that year.

Yeah prob warning snows for eastern half of SNE but western parts still get good advisory snows.