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I have so many fond memories of those types of storms from the 1980s and 1990s. Bring it on! .

Best case scenario is something like what we saw with the fantasy GFS run a few days ago: the Baja California energy ejects very efficiently and runs into a brutally deep cold dome and we squeeze out a lot of moisture along the baroclinic zone. The worst case scenario (and the most likely fail mode) is the energy gets held back and or doesn't eject efficiently and it's a congrats Richmond. I see absolutely no reason to worry about rain in this set up. If the 6z AI GFS happened, then sure you might flip to sleet. We will have to see wholesale changes with the Arctic high to worry about rain

poor ralph doesn't know about the scoreboard system but knows about gooning

Yea tank is outside the line is at the bottom of the tank it the line is literally like 7-10” into the house.

It does look like a Miller A/B hybrid, which we have done well with recently in western NC. Jan 2022, Jan 30, 2010, and December 2002 were somewhat similar setups. https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2015/12/nc-extremes-an-ice-storm-for-the-ages/

Agreed. I posted several pages back that an OBX MECS seems to be a Nina hallmark. And maybe that’s what we’re looking at here. But just to be safe, I buried my shovel in the back of the garage this morning. We’re a superstitious lot.

Thanks man! We are in that graveyard window now but I think we might survive!

ICON is more of a tn valley overrunner vs a developed storm. Not much of a circulation or developed surface/850 low. AI models are far different in that respect.

-10's with some -20's (-sd's along the shore) this morning. Day winds have kicked up as well, keeping wind chills ugly.

We can just cancel it to pull the storm back if it starts to go wrong anyhow

12z Suite Scoreboard >4" vs <4" scoreboard (Euro = 5, Euro AI = 5, GFS AI = 4, GFS = 3, CMC = 2, UKMET = 1, ICON = 1) DC: 0-1, less than 4" leads Baltimore: 0 - 1, less than 4" leads

12z icon starts us off with smoking cirrus, nary a flake while the MA gets a SECS. But...it did move quite a bit N, so thats a step in the right direction.

3.4" from yesterday, 2 day total was 7.8"

RGEM was going to be less suppressed as well. Just judging off of the position of the PV. We'll see how that translates to the Canadian.

I feel pretty confident that as long as we don’t see a cutter,IMO, we should not have temperature issues. .

12z ICON would be 3" - 6" of cold powder on a weekend.

Gfs overdoes that sometimes

Weekend snowfall totals: Click map to enlarge.

WTTTY it was coming. Scott did not know!

This is a decent chart.

Icon jumped north, more Euro-like. I tend to think of the AI models as predictive of a way to show the most likely direction the OP models will trend. I would tend to think significant snowfall is much more likely North of Charlotte

I’m certainly not writing off the possibility, just skeptical right now.

I think you meant 2003. PD 2023 was a torch, lol.

I mentioned this in a post a few days ago. Throw quantum into the mix, then what do we have? It either takes the fun out of this hobby...or maybe we don't sweat over the models and just enjoy the weather when it happens. Do private forecast firms go by the wayside? Related...I feel bad the those who recently learned to write basic code at their local community college.

Congrats RIC