All Activity

Anthony, Maybe this person saw this latest 10 day CFSv2 mean for Feb ‘27 (Nino): 80% of CONUS BN; much AN E Canada: No other mid Oct 10 day mean for Feb has had anything even closely resembling this extreme couplet and cold dominant Feb US/much warmer than normal E Can have been on EVERY 10 day mean since they started going out that far in mid August! Check out how much Feb of ‘27 differs from all other Feb forecasts back to the start of the CFSv2: 2026: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can: 2025: 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2024 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; AN E Can 2023: 33% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2022: 6% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2021: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2020: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2019 (Nino): 5% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2018: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2017: 3% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2016 (Nino): 4% of CONUS BN; AN E Can 2015 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2014: 4% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2013: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2012: 15% of CONUS BN; BN E Can Feb: % BN Conus; E Can anom ‘27 (Nino): 80% BN US; much AN E Can ’26: 1% BN US; BN E Can ’25: 0% BN US; BN E Can ’24 (Nino): 0% BN US; AN E Can ’23: 33% BN US; BN E Can ’22: 6% BN US; BN E Can ’21: 20% BN US; BN E Can ’20: 1% BN US; BN E Can ’19 (Nino) 5% BN US; BN E Can ’18: 20% BN US; BN E Can ’17: 3% BN US; BN E Can ’16 (Nino): 4% BN US; AN E Can ’15 (Nino): 0% BN US; BN E Can ’14: 4% BN US; BN E Can ’13: 1% BN US; BN E Can ’12: 15% BN US; BN E Can ————————————— Analysis of above: -Feb of ‘27 80% BN US vs only 33% (‘23) for next closest! Avg of only 7.5% BN US for 2012-26 and a mere 2% BN for the four El Niño cases! -Other 4 Nino Febs no more than 5% BN US! The two strongest Nino Febs had it with US BN of 0% (‘24) and 4% (‘16)! So, there’s virtually no resemblance to ‘27. -Feb of ‘27 has by far the warmest E Can. Only 2 others had any degree of AN (much less intense than ‘27) and they were the 2 strongest El Niños (‘24 and ‘16). —————— In closing, Feb of ‘27 has been very persistently (for 2 months!) showing on the CFSv2 a highly unique (among all Febs on record) couplet of a cold dominant CONUS and extreme blocking/very warm E Canada. The CFSv2 has been trying to tell us something it never has and thus it shouldn’t be dismissed imho.

i can't believe my (A) eyes.

The 1990s winters here were WARMER than winters of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 2000s and 2010s. Yes, the decade of the 1990s was colder than the intra decade block of 2016-2026. But actually the 90s still saw very slightly less snow than '16-26 too. And of course, there was a slew of mild to very mild winters in the 1930s-1950s. With the obsession some have with cc, lets not forget that weather also always has gone in cycles. When the snowy 2010s completed, the 1990s stood as the tamest winters here since the 1950s. So I get tired of the excuse that the nino of 97-98 was during some ice age climate lol. As for the old adage "its too cold to snow". Technically thats not true, however the cold is a very common contributor to suppression. Last winter was ranked a severe winter here due to its lasting cold and snowpack, but suppression absolutely stole our chance for above avg snowfall.

lol the entire NFC East should be relegated - maybe pull in the top 2 each from the SEC and the Big 10

Just wanted to make a quick update while I have some free time. Here are the results of the Max Temp forecast for each station. Green highlights a daily record high. DC managed 4 100+ degree days this year. Congrats to both Hudsonvalley and Donsutherland for a tie this year with some close contenders. I'll post in about a week about November forecasts.

Well, almost everybody.

Holy AI slop

Here is roughly the last month and a half update. At this time of the +12c we were at Thanksgiving. Roughly about a month ahead of where we are in equivalency to 1997. We should know in the next 2 weeks how this works out but have this feeling we are done with significant warmings but rather how long this holds on compared to typical sst's which flatline now until about mid to late December.

I hear the flood gates open in November.

First time in NFL history a division goes winless for two consecutive weeks...I mean dang, lol

I don't know why but something feels off about that. 80W would be right on the immediate coastline which would maybe make the most sense right at the absolute surface not subsurface of 50-100m. Also we have seen a +12c subsurface before the only thing that has changed between 1997 and now is the average. On scale this is pretty inline with 1997 as for absolutes it is a whole different story.

Biberty

im so proud of you

Forky, Liberty is free …….. he found a way. As always …..

Great video https://youtu.be/4gP_R1OGeQ8?is=EA6MCfhV6sw9i-6k

Great video. This El Nino might screw up the warm forecasts. https://youtu.be/4gP_R1OGeQ8?is=EA6MCfhV6sw9i-6k

With the autumn we’ve had so far it’s hard to believe this was the scene 6 years ago today.

The latest CFSv2 10 day mean prog for RONI for Oct is +2.5 and for Nov is +2.75. The current record high for any month since 1950 is the +2.5 of Jan of 1983. Judging by the blue lines all being at or below +2.75, this graph’s +2.75 mean for Nov is likely heading down in future 10 day runs. @40/70 Benchmark’s prediction for RONI is looking pretty good: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt

Buda has fallen to 79/59 average highs/lows. However we are headed for summerlike 90s. I think Central Texas will experience an unusual anomaly associated with this Nino. We will be well west of The Plume, and somehow also much warmer than usual throughout the Nino Event. Since the Base State will be much warmer in 2027, the Summer of 2027 will break hundreds of high temperature records in Texas. I now expect a very dry autumn and winter for Buda, as well as a very dry Spring in 2027, that will also be associated with much warmer temperatures right into Summer next year that shall be catastrophic for my part of the world. The southeast and Mid Atlantic will be troffy, very wet and Mid Atlantic will also experience snows associated with arctic air masses that time with prodigious moisture throughout the Nino Event.

Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb zonal mean wind prog is even weaker than yesterdays, which had its lowest at 14 m/s, with it down to 12 m/s: