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It’s a CYA thing I guess.

Its February not march

"Trend is your friend?" LOL. You know the more I look back at those wx quips and anecdotes learned growing up, the more I tend to shun them. Mainly b/c "the details are EVERYTHING concerning sensible wx in an area or region!"

This is dejavu from last year when the models show a huge snowstorm just a few days out only to take it away. Even the euro showed a big snowstorm and lost it. It was also around this time.

I think if there is a chance of 0.1” of ice they need to put out the advisory?

Yeah, if there’s any icing, they’ll be in advisory. I guess I wouldn’t carpet bomb the whole thing C to 3 inches. It’s just my background talking.

This is such a nothing event complicated by 1 truly lousy model. Will I be eating my words? Doubt it.

Imagine what he’ll become the day he gets a big one right? *Shudders*

The”what’s the alternative” has never worked for me. That what real science does-finds its way to the correct resolution. You have said you enjoy looking at the projected examples. . I enjoy correct, logically assembled information. Predicting a monster snowstorm or zero Before the vital factor has even hit the west coast is ridiculous. It can’t be done so why produce such? And for a technical suggestion, that 500 mb vorticity chart is a stringy mess like a human genome chart . You enjoy the lead up while I enjoy the niwcasts of an event. The lead up don’t mean much when it is so incredibly erratic that’s it’s an admission of “it can’t be predicted”

It might be the current administration leaking into the core of the american model. Think about it - you never know what's going to come out of the white house on any given day and half the time it's over the top bonkers and changes by the next news cycle. The GFS is basically doing the exact same thing. Maybe it's all by design...

I mean... i guess all in all... it wasn't a terrible mid-morning/afternoon if you want to keep hope alive for at least a plowable event N/W of Philly?

Maybe due to icing? Edit. Yeah. Definitely due to ice possibilities

But yes - no member has DCA over 6". To say the GFS is on a different world is an understatement. Different parallel universe

smarch classic

You mean there's still a chance? What trends do we need to look for? "Well look, if the storm wanted to be here... (pregnant pause) it would be here".

EPS really wants the IVT overhead. Get a nickel and dimer on the board even at the 10th percentile. Median looks solid

I'm thinking we can probably put this thread to rest by the 0Z runs tonight. Maybe change the name then to follow the Norlun. Forget the models, I'm still shocked that whethergeek2025 may have gotten this one totally wrong.

Yeah that doesn’t fly with public or customers. Big difference. Leave out areas from advisory with less confidence.

There is still enough time and room for the south coast in this and it probably wouldn't even take much more to get at least some minor accumulations farther inland. Would probably want to start seeing some jumps 0z tonight and the theme continuing 12z tomorrow though

Don, do you have any info on driest February's for NYC climate sites? Are we close to being in the top 3 to 5 driest assuming not much else falls this month?

How about you look at thermal profiles. Report back your findings.

Absolutely so true. We all have both of them. How we deal determines a lot

Lolol

I 100% agree with this.