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Eric Webb getting served crow via 0z models.

@eyewall the 6” snow probability for Raleigh is at 0% on the EPS for Raleigh. We’re totally cooked

Good thump for most of the sub, 8-12” before the lowlanders SE of 95 would have mixing issues. Transfers to a low off VA near the end of the run, but cuts off for most at hour 120. Not at the computer for nice graphics, trying to log into wxmodels site to paste a total QPF/snow, but hasn’t loaded there yet.

Cracked the zero mark sometime overnight. Now sitting at -2.9 in my backyard. At my colder location shop in Andreas, southeast of here it's -9.4

Still can’t believe some of us went from two feet of snow to a cold rain in 12 hours.

Down to -2F in E CT, hard to believe it will be in the 30’s today.

I know why we failed: we believed in snow maps actually showing snow in the NC foothills. That should have been the first red flag models were out to lunch

When I woke up to pee and saw all the pages I knew. WPC is a little skeptical though Mirage? So how confident are we in this trend, and will it continue or revert back to earlier runs, is the big question. Given the nearly unanimous trend in this direction, and at least a couple model runs in a row showing such a trend, it does seem like this shift has some merit. However, overall run to run consistency has shown pretty large swings with the exact handling of both the southern and northern stream energy. Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon...especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage and suggests more confidence in a solution than there actually is at this point. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and temperatures were derived before much of this 00z guidance was available, and thus is a bit south of the new consensus. As described above, no guarantee we dont see a shift back south in later models...but assuming some persistence in the 06z/12z models then the WPC update today would likely shift north to at least some extent.

Icon liking the more amped solution at 6z

And show HAS to be falling

After what just transpired for this weekend I don’t even know why tracking from more than 3 days out is even worthwhile

Wait until February 2nd before starting one.

We can start it on January 31st. Thats the minimum now. .

Anyone wanna start a thread for the February 2 storm??

Honestly, I hope this system continues trending north and just goes completely away. I want 70 and sunny if it’s not gonna snow.

Sadly, why this is happening is easy to explain. Models have been moving the trough further and further west for two days. What that does is twofold: dumps cold air further west and leads to an earlier and full capture of the Baja low. Result is an earlier phase, and the SER can flex again with the trough axis to the west. This is textbook coastal fail mode for the SE. The surprising thing to me is simply how poorly this was modeled. We’re talking a 500 mile shift since yesterday morning. With very good blocking setting up, I’m still somewhat skeptical of this cutting straight into the high, but we’re walking a fail line between ice and rain at this point if these solutions are realistic with the NS trough axis. I did not think I’d see a Baja low phase in Texas 24 hours ago but that’s what the modeling consensus shows us

ICON at 6z joins the more amped camp, out thru 102 with heavies over most of the sub and a low down in the south. It’s going to be a huge hit, but will review uppers. Phase occurring a lot fair west earlier/cleaner than prior runs.

It can’t get any worse.

Webb throwing up the white flag https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013860089803804790?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

I’m too afraid to see.

Antone know how the overnight models runs went?

Thats an awfully strong HP, touting 1040mb or even slightly higher. I think all noteworthy models have a handle on how quickly is departs, and the extent of the arctic air. But is the Euro picking up on this transfer correctly? What data was ingested to show such a massive correction north? The Baja low?

Said as well as anyone could say. 0.50 inches of ice messes me up.

To put this into perspective, the ECMWF trend north the last four runs.

Some of the trends on the EURO are the most stunning reversals I have ever seen. Parts of north Georgia have gone from the mid 20s to the mid 60s in 4 runs. It’s the king, but that is hard to take in. I am very skeptical the wedge just evaporates.