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You know what would be even better? An entire January where 50+ never happens, but to each his own.

Yeah, picked up another 1.5" after that for a total of 7.5". Total fluff on top of like tilted pond ice on the Front Four lol. Looks great in photos. Skis like you want to hold on for dear life.

Everyone always laughs at GEFS and GFS but has it been any worse that other models for next week? Look at the euro, 5 days ago it was honking the horn for a cold and stormy pattern in the east and everyone was excited and now it’s gone absolute torch on everyone. I’m not defending GEFS, but it never really bought that week like other modeling did even though it was wishy washy. There’s something to be said if a model suite locks in consistently to a period then pulls the rug vs one that can’t make its mind up on same period. Both suck for us, but king euro failed miserably on this period. Mid month and beyond I don’t even care about yet we can’t even get 2 weeks somewhat accurate. Signs are looking 2021-ish to me with pattern change that never happens but I’m just a lurker on pattern recognition

Maybe a pedantic clarification, but the Euro isn't necessarily showing snow here because of a north trend. What it is doing is swinging a more potent vort through OH into our region which helps with the lift needed for a minor accumulation. The other models don't have that feature or are weaker.

sensory and perception do not exist. try thinking before posting

Well, in your defense....you have to acknowledge the development of a strong consensus on guidance....that's what I did over the weekend. I rationalized why guidance was potentially doing that as the lack of coupling between the strengthening Strat PV and troposphere, while acknowledging potential colder risks to my forecast. This abandonment of major blocking makes more sense to me, though.

Love this. Absolutely frigid today.

Deep deep winter on January 1.

That squall was the best I'd seen since living in Fort Kent. At RUM (for a meeting) it lasted less than 45 minutes and dropped 2" horizontally while chopping the temp by about 15°. Only 1" at home. Unfortunately, that was the last 'genuine' winter event for that cold season. The 10" of grayish-as-it-fell 4:1 glop modified by 1"+ cold RA doesn't qualify as snow, for me. Neither did the 3" of paste in the 3rd week of April. Nice if short squall went thru here just after noon, with a few minutes of visibility below 100 yards with some 20s gusts. Only 0.4" from 0.01" but fun for a bit.

2.3" in Shrewsbury 10.9" season to date

Think the final BDR total has not ben posted yet. That was at 7 am I believe

Northern Neck might be a good spot for this "event".

Welp, no snow yesterday. And I'm doing ok today but slept SUPER heavily and missed the squall and somehow even the warning ?! . Went out at 8 a.m. measured a few spots on the deck, 0.2" as average. Abingdon mesonet snow depth was same at 8 a.m. but had more earlier. Bel Air spotter 0.2" Neither place that close to here idk outta energy again lol 0.2" it is. Happy new year to all!

Where has LongBeachSurfFreak been?

Don't underestimate the drifts that .5 on top of a glacier can cause in this wind, so good ones out here along 416.

The runs d10-15 have some decent rigor in regards to the long wave 500 pattern. I think where frustrations occur(me included at times) is the details are often just wonky and getting wonkier - see 12z today. My main concern is that some of the solutions make zero sense. Prior to November, the solution might be wrong at that range...but at least it looked plausible. I am a big believer in getting the pattern right, and then let the chips (details) fall where they may. I am cautiously optimistic that we have a chance at a good EPO pattern right when our climatology is the best, beginning around Jan 12-13 for a TBD duration. I think we can use d10-16 maps to get a clue as to that pattern. Sometimes we will see a model lock onto a big storm at that range, and nail it...but generally only w/ big storms. I have seen the GFS nail two strat splits at d16....it has an uncanny ability to model the stratosphere at range, maybe not so much the surface at range.

I can confirm that Rainthuen has survived the latest onslaught from Old Man Winter despite having nearly 3/4 of an inch of snow... #RAINTHUENSTRONG

Well anyone is free to counter my " bold guess"....provided of course it isn't wishcasting..

Ensembles have all run. Generally (exception EPS since it only goes to d15), these are 5day blends of d11-16. In other words, we are taking January 12-17th. I have attached the 12z GEFS and compared it to its 18z run yesterday - flip city. Key notes: -The EPO ridge looks legit. WHERE it sets up is going to be important. -The 12z GEPS is probably the best case, but it is hard not to like the 12z AIFS Euro ensemble w/ that Alaskan block. -Now the 12z EPS is interesting. That is more of a PNA ridge. Likely feedback over Alaska w/ that trough. -12z GEFS is trending considerably towards an eastern trough. It retrogrades the ridge rapidly, leaving only a narrow window for cold. But the trend is your friend with this model. What a great look around 276. -The ridge is retrograding for sure. It remains to be seen whether it stops in the EPO region or continues to retrograde into Asia as Holston correctly noted is a risk. I think it sticks the landing, but that is only a hunch. -Mammoth is getting hammered today as is Los Angeles. There may be rain in the Rose Bowl. -Good trends w/ ensembles at 12z. With deterministic runs all over the map...this is probably the best way to go. -Increasing risk of a stalled frontal boundary. The 12z GEM has it at 240, but as Icy would correctly note...it is 240. The 12z Euro flirts with that as well. That risk is even more apparent on ensembles. I don't see a big snow accumulation bump, but one can easily see the gradient pattern s/ a slight southwest to northeast axis after Jan 10. Thats's all. Oregon has already scored while I right this. Ducks up 13-0...the Ducks are pulling the truck!

Winds are back again. Blowing 40 mph. Had so many 50 gusts overnight. CTP really undercut wind today.

Looks good, we pretty much all thought that though on Tuesday. My point was we still have some lighter threats to track so not dry, and cutters although likely are not guaranteed not sold on warmth 100% yet. Over this past weekend into Monday, the -NAO block idea on EPS tricked me, that idea is not happening. We can all agree that we have to wait to post Jan 12ish for anything significant.

Can't really complain about winter at all. Way above our average this time of year. Now lets get a bigger storm and get above our average for a change.

I think what you mean to say is that places to the south(and east) have been at or above climo for those locations while places NW have largely been below for those areas. There is a significant difference in what is 'normal' snowfall for southern DE compared to places NW of Baltimore. Pretty sure PSU has had more snow than Lewes every winter since 2017(except maybe one).

This is pope’s post from 2 days ago.

Ya for the interior for sure.. At this point, only need one good coastal to hit climo along the south coast..