All Activity

How many times has that happened with this level of significant cold in place?

UK would be fun, flips DC basically at 17/18z Sunday with ~0.9” QPF before that.

CMC much colder. Big thumper

Does Kuchea include sleet. I thought it removed it.

Here’s the real problem on the RRFS .

Now what if NAM stays the course but the other models do not cave to it?

Me too!

23/2 here near Braddock Road metro. Just saw the 3k NAM. 5" snow followed by 3" sleet. Would still be quite the storm. You can't toss it unfortunately. Too many times we've seen mid level warm air punch its way well north and west than the globals suggested at 36 hours out.

Chat GTP basically told me it’s “typical NAM behavior” and that it holds on to partially melted particles even if the warm layer was very shallow or gone. Disclaimer: I’m posting this snippet for entertainment purposes, and we know that the NAM does in many cases sniff this out. But could be something to this: Ignore NAM sleet if: 850–700 mb is ≤ –2°C No >0°C layer ≥ ~30 mb Other models (GFS is snow Use NAM for: QPF placement Thermal trends Frontogenesis / banding signals But not for dominant p-type in marginal cold events.

I'd pay attention to both, but if it backs off at 6z that's probably a good sign.

I like that Ukie run

This will be no where near 94

Do I need to post the pound of feathers vs pound of rocks analogy again?

Was she alive in 2000? It can happen, once every century or so.

00z GEFS Total QPF Total snow mean (10:1)

I am a little embarrassed to admit that I added Violin Phonix's "Silence" to my personal Christmas playlist. I'm only guessing, but I would think take it when the flip happens to ZR.

Yeah that's my impression is that the early hours are going to be the snow watching jackpot.

Bullshit

Let’s keep it or even add to it now.

Well I don't love that out here. Maybe you were onto something MPM

Caps have a lead in the 3rd period. this feels... different.

I feel like somebody needs to call bullshit on this sleet output.

Are there any historical records of sleet alone?

I don’t know, a half inch+ of QPF in this environment will be plowable. The best mid-level banding often follows the QPF gradient or just north of it. Might be another chance for a BGM-ALB-DDH-CON-LEW fluff factor band.

I'm gonna consult my local crystal mommy.