All Activity

Most of them verified but there has been only a handful

Nice write ray.

Models more or less hold steady overnight. Temps going to be an issue even as the heavier snow moves through, holding in the mid 30s in the Triad per model consensus. Probably would be a bit colder in the heaviest bands, but if the better dynamics are north of the VA border as the Euro and RGEM show, we could get blanked again

What are you confused about Kev?

The current standing wave in MJO 4-6 will consolidate the forcing there leading to a jet extension in around 10 days and the ridge getting pushed east with the falling AAM.

Overperforming nicely

Overperforming nicely

So much for today’s wintry appeal.

Yup…I feel it’s better to see this than some bomb at 6-7 Days that we know will be all over the map, driving folks nuts. A good signal is what we want at this lead….the eventual system will emerge as we close in.

The 13-15 has my interest. Obviously could go to shit, but it has a look that I haven’t seen in awhile. I think I would lean off the explosive look (not impossible) and hope for a 3-6 4-8 deal. there’s probably another opportunity or so within a few days after that, and then we’ll probably warm up towards the 18th to the 20th. But after that, it looks like there’s gonna be quite the gradient setting up somewhere in the other 40th parallel so. Just hope to be on the good side of that.

2.2” so far.

I’m seeing that as well. We take.

There is still a shot at some snow late week, probably Friday. Multiple cold fronts coming through mid week into the weekend with all sorts of vorticity in the flow. Hard for models to pin down. Probably something on the lighter side if it does happen.

Ground zero

No freezing fog at the house this morning. It's currently 25 which is my low. Snow makers are busy up at Cataloochee and Tube World here in town. I'm not expecting much from the system coming in overnight into tomorrow. Late this week we are likely to get the coldest air of the season as lobes of Arctic air heads our way. It's too soon to know if we will have precipitation arriving with the Arctic front.

Another Sunday morning waking up to the goods. 7" on the mark.

100% frozen deck and steps from last night. Glad Im not driving the school bus this morning. My route takes me to the top of Rutherford off HWY 226 near the game lands of south. Lots of little bridges around. But the fog was a frozen last night .

.

Not so sure about the Christmas torch, at least according to yesterday's Euro weeklies. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512060000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202512150000

Temp is 23 and the tree branches have a thin frosty glaze from overnight freezing fog. Quite pretty with the low sun filtered through the clouds.

It’s still there, just not a blizzard on the OP run like 18z…more of a high end advisory or low end warning look on 06z. I’d like to see a bit more amped western ridge to dig this thing more but the system is pretty evident on guidance.

Hey.. at least VA gets more cold smoke tomorrow. The annual Christmas torch looks to be gaining legs. Hopefully this isn't our two weeks of winter for the season lol

That's what we want to see at this point. Models keying in on signals, but won't lock on to an actual possible storm for several days. Let's keep that trend. On another note, I wonder how much of our warming is caused by excessive flatulence due to excessive beer consumption?