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The idea of an imminent SSW/MSW event is a high-confidence one. However, there is often a tendency to treat forecast developments (“SSW → PV split → EPO-/WPO-/AO-/PNA- → brutal NE weather”) as if it were an inevitable, linear, cause-and-effect chain. If such logic were reliable, forecasting accuracy at multi-week stages would be high. That isn't the case. I personally believe that there will be an increase in wintry effects, especially from near mid-December into at least late December based on typical 1-3 week lags and the currently forecast teleconnection evolution. That's my baseline thinking at present. However, that thinking isn't cast in stone. Reality is messier. For example, not every SSW leads to a prolonged deep AO-. Not every AO- period results in severe cold and/or excessive snowfall. From this far out, model skill is poor to non-existent on critical synoptic factors e.g., future storm tracks, the emergence of North Pacific jet streaks, exact ridge-trough placement, etc. A bad pattern coupled with a well-timed phase can produce a big snowstorm; a great pattern but badly-timed phases or absence of shortwaves can result in a lack of snowfall. Seemingly favorable ensemble means can also disguise large differences among ensemble members. Clusters can provide insight into some scenarios. Here are the forecast 500 mb anomalies at 360 hours: Here are the latest 500 mb and 1000 mb ECMWF clusters: 500 mb: 1000 mb: For now, potential is on the table. But nothing is locked in, just yet, in terms of specific details.

Looks like not just your locale where temps stayed a bit higher as well, This was 6am, KLEW hit 17°F on the 7:00am update. 728 ASUS41 KGYX 191110 RWRGYX WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 600 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025 * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. MEZ002-005-006-010-012-015-018-020-021-024-026-027-029-191200- MAINE CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS PORTLAND PTCLDY 21 20 96 CALM 30.14S SANFORD* CLEAR 16 14 92 CALM 30.14R BAR HARBOR CLEAR 28 24 85 CALM 30.13R WISCASSET CLEAR 25 20 81 CALM 30.15R ROCKLAND* CLEAR 31 24 75 NW7 30.13R FRYEBURG CLEAR 18 14 84 CALM 30.12R LEWISTONAUBURN CLEAR 18 16 92 CALM 30.13R AUGUSTA NOT AVBL WATERVILLE* CLEAR 27 23 85 CALM 30.10R BANGOR CLEAR 25 22 88 CALM 30.12R GREENVILLE N/A 21 19 92 CALM 30.01R MILLINOCKET NOT AVBL HOULTON CLEAR 25 23 92 SW5 30.02R PRESQUE ISLE CLOUDY 30 26 85 W5 30.01R FRENCHVILLE CLEAR 26 23 88 W12 29.94R WCI 16 CARIBOU CLEAR 27 24 89 SW6 29.97R $$

12z GFS for the people who were confused at my post earlier lol:

Natural gas is up 4.5% on colder model trends.

Dryslot: Pretty chilly this morning, 17F, Not fake. Only got down to 20 here - wind must've lasted a few hours longer. Not many autumns where you got below 20 before this rad pit. Even Tip got into the teens first.

.4"

Hi

And imho it's not the speed of the pac jet, it's the placement of the strongest portion of the jet and it's exit region. If the jet is favored equatorward and its exit region is just south of the aleutians, we get ridging over AK and cold air flowing south into the CONUS towards the east.

That low for 12/5 needs to be in the Florida Keys at this point for me to take it serious at this range on the GFS.

Been using fake effect for a while now.

Works for temps and snow

0.07 here.

That last week of December looks mint. Unfortunately it's 5 weeks away Until then, looks seasonable for us (upper 30s mid 40s on average)

Off topic but tornado lovers might get a kick out of this website I found off Reddit: https://www.tornadopath.com/tornado-history-near-me

07-08 is the nearest to a W2W winter I've experienced south of Fort Kent, and even that one had a very mild week in January, as 7-13 averaged 17° AN and the 8th was +26, greatest AN day we've had in Jan. Fortunately, that thaw had no accompanying deluge.

A new forum term for the winter months!

FAF

Only .21" measured after it sprinkled and lightly to at times moderately rained for 12 plus hours yesterday. Makes .63" for the month now. Temp was 41.3 at 7 am report time, warmed to 40-41 around midnight and stayed there all night after being in the 30's majority of the day. Currently 51.8/46.7 at 10:45 under partly cloudy skies.

still warm enough for brunch on the patio ...

I mean yeah, deriving the effect of an SSW is a much more complex problem, but no one's debating whether or not it will occur. That's what I find comical about this post.

AAM forecast (CFS ensemble): big change for mid Dec vs forecast from two days earlier (warning: these are highly volatile on right side of graph): 11/18/25 AAM forecast: suggests it may go + (El Ninoish) in mid-Dec?!? 11/16/25 AAM forecast: 11/11/25 AAM forecast: @snowman19

There is a reason Judah is a well respected meteorologist. He doesn't jump on cold because he knows it's hard for us now. If you bet against sustained cold in winters in the mid atlantic/NE nowadays you'll be right 9 times out of 10.

Spot on re:acorns. They are demolishing my new sprigs of fall seeding grass.

Agree Pattern is in the transition stage.

Lol what's nail-biting about it? Every single ensemble member supports it and about 90% are on board for a full reversal. Seems a bit clickbaity