All Activity

22.9”

Winston-Salem Journal article hailing AI models for getting January 25 right https://journalnow.com/news/local/weather/article_10d08a83-ae8f-464b-9de6-780f2694f8f8.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

16" Sandwich MA

Yes we get it

16" storm total

Final total 14.5"... Can't really complain Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Pretty sure Boxing Day did this.

Yah I can’t site a specific example but do recall storms sort of “blurring to nothing” in the 5 to 6 day range and coming back at day 4. Maybe 2013 blizzard did this?

Starting the day at 2° with light diamond dust falling in Wolf. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

14.5" final Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Down to 5 degrees. Coldest reading for my tempest since installed in 22

Cold Mountain(s)

That tracks well with what I saw. We definitely got 6-7 inches yesterday. What a great day of snow.

Gefs were trending there icon ensemble trended better as well

DT"s discussion: https://bsky.app/profile/wxrisk.bsky.social/post/3mdf2hbstpk2w?fbclid=IwY2xjawPlhP1leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFtSnJVbEZtTTMzcVFSS2ZNc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHtea2emH2RI-PpInSW7tv9WUy4gopaTOkMyzIZUi3XiY9ngFkpFiThN78d-d_aem_vDuHang7dhGX9a-a5v_usw ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ Follow LATE MON/ EARLY TUE UPDATE ON JAN 31- FEB 1 POSSIBLE SEVERE EAST COAST WINTER STORM THREAT /1 This is a discussion -NOT a forecast. 0z early Monday (1AM) op-Euro/ 6z op-EURO/ 6z Euro all develop a massive VERY powerful East Coast winter storm that deepens 975mb with winds over 45 mph. 12:43 AM · Jan 27, 2026 Everybody can reply 2 reposts 20 likes 1 2 ‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 5h along with an incredible snow amount from Central NC to new England. BUT that is 1 **possible** outcome. The question is HOW does the Euro model do this ?? First It should be pointed out that other models are showing SIMILAR OVERALL solutions in various degrees. /2 1 ‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 5h Not surprisingly most of the GFS and GFS AI model runs have the MASSIVE Intense LOW somewhat further east (Typical behavior with th GFS mode and BIG East Coast LOWs) This image shows how this massive storm COULD develop in to bring about such an extreme snowstorm in the this weekend. /3 1 ‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 5h The first map shows a major s/w ( shortwave) running W-E from Iowa to the Great Lakes on Friday. This feature develops a closed 500 low that rapidly rotates as it heads SE. It swings around in SW- NE alignment, then a N to S, then NW-SE ( negative Tilt) alignment. /4 SEE IMAGE 2 1 ‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 5h The 500mb Low develops a negative Tilt ( NW-SE) and " captures" the surface LOW off SC and pulls it NW. The surface LOW reaches max size /intensity FEB 1 when the 500mb LOW the surface LOW become vertically stacked off of DEL / 5 1 ‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 5h Note on MAP C the 500 LOW tracks across NC then turns NE off the NJ coast and captures the surface Low. THAT IS THE KEY- any variation causes a big change with how the LOW develops & which part of the coast gets hit. The 18z Monday Euro; note the 500 LOW is in SC - NOT NC /6 1 ‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 5h This would allow the surface LOW to the captured further to the east which would mean the big cities of I-95 from Boston to DC wouldn't miss out on the best snows while eastern VA / eastern NC and Cape Cod would get blasted. /7 See 18Z op EURO 1 ‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 5h 18Z EURO ensemble has significant cluster of LOWS further West /8

Comparing to yesterday's 6z big hit

On this past storm, there were a couple of runs 10 days out or so, maybe the GFS, that had this weekend storm slamming us. Then for a couple days, the models took everything south south south. Then the move north. What I’m saying is I find it’s not uncommon when there’s a big storm shown in the 7 to 10 day window that sort of disappears, it sometimes comes back. Especially with the coastal storm where the set up is a bit more delicate in terms of small things having big impacts. I would say the late night model runs tonight will give us a general direction.

Just looking at 6z euro early it feels Eastish If we’re going to see a big change it will be at 12z or 0z

I wonder if we can sacrifice a super wound up, phased, negative tilted system with just having it dig less south and close off closer to our latitude. At least then you get some ULL snows. Certainly not giving up on this one yet, the larger setup is volatile to small changes

7.2°

Not surprising. I think this one is gone. The AI models being along the coast/out to sea is the writing on the wall.

Tough to get consensus 5 days out but I'd like to see an ensemble mean hit on at least one of the globals by end of day

Bringing flashbacks to one of my favorite storms to track, the January 2018 "fish bomb" that gave areas east of the garden state parkway 2 feet.

That’s what we want to see on the ensembles at this point, no? I know we all love to see the huge Op eye candy, but I’m somewhat happy it’s not a direct hit just yet up here, at 5 days out. That can happen in a day or two .