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Just get me a GD inch

The GFS is truly awful, this is probably the 6th or 7th time it has taken away the Sunday into Monday storm only to bring it back. Rain here, but ill chase it into NY.

Hey, at least you got the grass covered. I don’t really see anything until later next week and obviously that is questionable. But all the models hint at what I think is a decent look with some chances going forward. Probably nothing big although the GFS offered a coastal later in the run.

My other option is the Hanging Rock area north of Winston-Salem.

Steve is a candidate to to get angered by that, too. My rule of thumb is if you are left equivocating with your schmenzer in your hand when asked exactly what you're tracking, then you aren't really tracking anything, and should expect nothing.

8.0° drop here in an hour. 19.0 now.

Wild times breh

It’s really meh.

On the plus side, the -WPO should chip away at the negative PDO and maybe even set us up for end of month into January

I can hear the screams from a police cruiser in Manhattan

Yeah, that alaska vortex needs to move norther or weaken. Otherwise, it won't let shortwaves dig enough for us to develop storms with enough gulf moisture.

It also looks likely to persist through at least mid-December, if not longer.

Recent arrival here, relocating from NJ to Cincinnati. I was told there was less winter here! 5 inches Monday night, and now embedded in one of the more severe cold snaps I've experienced since 2018, It's been some time since I've experienced more than a week when highs barely touched freezing.

That's a frigid look just starting at the end of the eps last night... -WPO loading Canada with cold air. With SW US ridging is going to relay that SE... I'll roll the dice with that anytime.

Absolutely nothing gets past you.

Yep....Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Most boring "active" pattern I've ever seen. The three most prevalent words on the forum right now are inverted, trough and trying...all you need to know.

Can’t trust the NAM. I’m just gonna see if there can be any trend during today.

BOX thinks signal got stronger . Who knows Model guidance continues to show an inverted trough positioned across the region late Fri into Sat with subtle hints of convergence in the wind fields. This could potentially provide better forcing for a more organized band of precipitation. Can`t rule out a brief deformation-type band on the backside of the system later Saturday as cooler air pushes in from the west. Details still to be ironed out for timing of these more organized bands of showers and precip type.

The North trend is back better than ever. Looks like a great even for the central/Southern VA Piedmont. Still some hope for the Northern NC Piedmont, but fading

Below are a press release and a Q+A on the retracted paper. The problems with the original paper have been addressed and a new paper has been submitted. How do the results in the corrected version compare to the original: "The revisions did not significantly alter the central estimates, but did increase the uncertainty range they sat within. Correcting the underlying data for Uzbekistan and introducing additional controls to make the model more robust to outlier data and anomalies resulting from the transition between data sources changed the global median income loss from 19% (18.8%) to 17% (17.4%). Accounting for spatial correlation using ‘Conley standard errors’ did not affect the median, but did increase the uncertainty ranges, with the likely range of damages by mid-century increasing from 11-29% to 6-31%." https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/authors-retract-nature-study-on-economic-damages-from-climate-change-will-resubmit-for-peer-review https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/questions-and-answers-nature-study

Nothing too exciting over the next 10 days. Maybe it will change for next week.

Actually, maybe I’m wrong? SLK went from a SW to NNW wind on that temp crash. This is pretty cool to witness.

I think we can squeeze out a few raindrops up this way. Im looking forward to the BBQ weather on Christmas.

I am planning on going up to southern VA for this one. This is definitely their system more than ours.