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gotta say...its a bit more unstable than models were forecasting in our region today

I did that a little earlier too and like yourself nothing remarkable going on except rain

I’m distinctly non partisan when it comes to t storms lol

That thing will go right down HRV into NNJ and NYC . Likely Jack Dick for SNE

I watched a live webcam from Watertown but was pretty meh for the most part.. storms firing just west of here now.. hoping for something

Which year between 10-11 or 11-12 had a very strong Arctic warming?

well hell if this doesn't confirm what I just said to Wiz DISCUSSION...Volumetric radar data from KTYX indicate a bow echo with a well-defined rear-inflow jet moving southeast at around 50 kt. Extrapolation of current motion takes the bow echo to the vicinity of Watertown, NY, between 1:00-1:30 PM EDT. Visible satellite imagery shows considerable mid/upper-level cloudiness and some elevated convection ahead of the MCS across the Tug Hill region; however, stronger heating is occurring across the Finger Lakes and far western NY with latest objective analysis indicating MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Persistent westerly low-level flow will advect that more unstable air mass into the region ahead of the MCS. Thing is, these things tend to expand. I may turn right.. not sure, but I could see an outflow arc evolving with growth along it doing that curl and that would probably end up near ORH later this evening.

Wouldn’t doubt it. Very dry mid levels here. Though sometimes these very long lasting MCS/derechos can pull a rabit out of a hat. I’ll take any rain I can get. Spent the morning watering weeping hydrangeas. .

Congrats HRV

I think we're getting clocked ... big wind potential mcs

Destructive tag for the storm throttling Watertown right now.

Makes me sad knowing Sudbury Ontario is getting better MCV’s than us all the way down here

HRRR has it getting into the HV and CT before falling apart

As a Utility worker and weather enthusiast i’m actually excited to feel these high temps. Back home hottest day I think i have experienced was 101 with an index of 115 back in 2012.

That's something!

Will it turn left?

Models did a really nice job highlighting NY today, even back to Thursday/Friday

Severe t storm watch for western NE. As Wiz has said hopefully more will fire east later tonight including “this is a destructive storm” for a warning area is kinda new verbiage to me

As of 6/29, 2026 sea ice area is 7.09 million sq km. This is currently 5th lowest: 2012: -380k 2010: -280k 2019: -170k 2024: -40k 2011: +2k 2020: +4k 2025: +10k Still another day or two before I run the numbers but a new record is nearly ruled out. Top 3 is definitely still on the table.

yeah that complex is going to ride the instability gradient. outflow def could fire stuff up farther east