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Sean Sublette was laid off by the paper quite a while ago. He has a consulting business now. He also does a Substack post and sends weather emails a couple of times a week. He did explore running for office but dropped out of a crowded field. I like his email and posts.

Ah... there's multiple reasons why this thing's behaving the way it is in the guidance - not one silver bullet. Having a S/W cresting the western ridge, doing so at a fast rate of speed is giving this thing on the east coast an non-linear negative interference ... ( transitive destructive - ). Then there's the convection. It occurs to me that there is an anomalously intense B-C axis in that vicinity down there. There really has to be, when there's been days of -3 SD air mass near-by a hotter than normal SW Atlantic OHE for the past 10 years. Ha. I mean Jesus... the convective potential is so extreme. Really, the expression "too much of a good thing" keeps hittin' at me. You can't exceed a threshold of potential in convection. Have you ever heard of the "K Index"? It's number that describes the general convective response once trigger has taken place. For example... in the Plains, a low K index with a very high CAPE and CIN collapse produces low counts of CB but huge super cells. If the K Index is high... the whole region erupts all at once and kills the organized super cells... etc. Something similar - this is where it's supposition but the more I look at this I suspect it to be so ... - is taking place where there is a high potential for convective response, with no inhibition... The whole region is ignite pretty far ahead of the trough... and there is so much potential due to the extremes of air mass over hot water ( relatively speaking) that the convective processing is blowing a hole in the troposphere and creating a new closed 500 surface out ahead of the real tough. That's why we are seeing this shit.. If you follow this 84 hour NAM chart back in time, you can see how the convection is evolving it's own S/W presence and then taking over... It's like a Miller B at 500 mb level.

on to Feb....

Good old subsidence from being directly under the tallest mountain range east of the Mississippi..

Nearly 75 pages on this lol....

The RGEM backed down by about .2 on snowfall across the area. 4.4 in Knox at 12z was 4.2 at 18z.

How does the NBM go up for the Philly-NJ-NYC region after every 12Z model was a whiff (other than the SREFs)?

2 weeks out or so, don't want the Bullseye on us

Icon is a hammer

Surprised to see my point and click suggesting 4 to 8 inches possibly higher. The wind doesn't look like much of an issue until Saturday night. It's also interesting seeing another chance of snow Wednesday afternoon into Thursday in that point and click forecast as well.

@wncsnowThe Marion/McDowell snow-hole from this week’s modeling has to be studied

The ICON was a tick better. 2.8 inches at 12z is 3 inches at 18z in Knoxville for instance.

RDPS looks improved compared to 12Z, more like yesterdays runs

It happened a few years ago with a miller A system that went just enough south that my area got around 2-3 inches but just east and south of here was 4-6+ inches.

If I had to make a call for east of 75, would say 3-6" more for upper ridges and mountains

Neutral at 48 centered over extreme NW GA. Looks like it’ll be a good run

ICON looks juiced up

This is a change - icon

Half the snow would still be on the ground from this weekends storm...

From a brief check at archived DCA temps, it's been very rare since 2016 to see significant snow and extended sub-freezing temps: 1/13/19 (10in) - temps above freezing rest of week 1/6/25 (7in) - temps above freezing rest of week 1/3/22 (7in) - one day of below freezing temps 2/1/21 (5in) - temps above freezing rest of week Compared to this event where we haven't breached freezing since the event and are not forecast to till next week, at least a full seven days.

Dang. Caught that. So when are they going to drop a disco? This is the only one that shows.

How bizarre is it to look at a warning, Advisory, etc… map of East Tennessee and see Knox County lumped in there with the mountain counties? Does anyone ever remember this happening before? .

Excuse me, pardon me. Don't mind me, I'm just climbing back up the cliff I dove off of after seeing those last runs.

Im not calling for this to come back…I wasn’t calling for that to come back..was just pointing out that this one would not take much for you to get a decent snow out of it. And that you say this about almost every single threat. You said it last week. You says it the week before too. Both times it snowed on you. You’re in a good spot. See here’s your problem…you’re so anti/and negative all the dam time, that when others say it needs to be watched(being that it’s a close call) at 2-3 days out, you misconstrue that idea, with your misconception that it is coming back. Nobody said it’s coming back. They said it needs to be watched. And for your area especially, it does.

RGEM out to 30 closes off the low over Illinois/iowa and seems like it maybe has slightly better tilt at that range