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Take the “not” out and we are in total agreement. We got this

Op GFS is an outlier in how it handles the Baja low. I would discount it for now.

lol I’m on a cruise out of Miami. I got no choice but to fly back Sunday morning

the way we do things around here this winter is we wait until a few days before the storm hits and i open the thread, not tripod

I’m in jackpot, but we all know the rule. 4 days you don’t want to be there. At least there is a chance for most of the board. If not we will hit cliff driving thread. lol

Lol. Look where the grey is. Unbelievable lol

GFS has 20:1 ratios for East Tennessee. .

There goes the money for Ruth Chris

I don't dislike this - precip field tugs more north compared to 12Z. If GFS had a bullseye this far out, I'd be worried - this is inline with what we typically see from the GFS in previous big events.

It’s the GFS, i trust it as much as @winter_warlock first wife.

What came south?

Yall need to do better about showing the whole region...

Looks like the 18z gfs

Let’s keep it down there till Wednesday. This could get fun yall if everything lines up perfectly. It’s been a while.

It'll be a long week. Just have to hope that we don't lose the SW. Otherwise its an even longer week with the NS.

Geez Randy, you had to go and make a thread

The coldest and likely snowiest two-week period of Winter 2025-2026 lies ahead. Arctic air will move into the region tonight. Tomorrow could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. An even colder Arctic front will cross the region on Thursday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. A frigid weekend lies ahead. Snow could arrive on Sunday. The temperature could stay below 20° in New York City on Saturday. The last time that happened was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +24.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.066 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (2.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

As for the AIGFS, look what's shown up over the Dakotas this run that nothing at 12z and didn't exist at 6z. Our little friend again.

Feel like the GFS has recently been more typically holding back energy in the SW in the medium range after overamplifying it in the longer range (168 hr and up) and/or shearing STJ energy as it propogates eastward. I don't think its a possibility we can ignore even with EPS/UKMET/CMC not taking on the same evolution. First part of the system feels very blizzard of 88-ish?

A war is happening on X between NE mets hugging the Euro AI and their followers seeing anything but southern trends. interesting how this ends up

Someone shut down the thread, it's our only hope.

The 18z ICON does the same. So, the models which end up with a suppressed solution....just cut off the Baja low for it to drift into oblivion. When it kicks out...boom.

I am SHOCKED that MRX already seems to be on board. They usually downplay it up until about 2 days out.

Right where we want it 5 days out. Gives us time to adjust if the HP isn’t as strong as modeled and allows low to track further NW.