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This is just extraordinary at this point….the onslaught of WWBs and DWKWs is progged to continue into November. Here comes another one. It’s been relentless since the end of March. This is guaranteed to result in more surface and subsurface warming……the strongest El Niño in history is all but a guarantee…. We have left 1997 in the dust:

The great thing about analogs is that even the most "perfect" match does not mean the winter will be even close to it.

Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt. I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern. Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views.

Not much history/experience with Mr Webb's conjectural advances in all honesty ...Alhough, yeah - I know there's a reposting habit in this social media. I am aware the man exists... if 'man' is how he identifies, notwithstanding. heh No, but in a vacuum, we'd need to have some sort of physically plausible "connective tissue" between the stratospheric polar vortex and the ENSO. I know of none. Frankly, everything I've been taught, read since, or experientially observed in real time over decades suggests there exist a direct ENSO-to-vortex wiring like that. However, this doesn't rule out an indirect causal linkage... perhaps a time lag? - but such a conjecture sees logical problems of it's own. Namely, this +ENSO is new - despite the histrionics and empirical eye-pop numbers - both - it is recent, so lag is immediately suss. Moreover, we just past through summer... First, the only way there is to connect the tropics to the stratosphere altitudes up N is via tropospheric planetary-wave transports and decay ... (that's also the seeding pathway to the SSW phenomenon, btw - although there's papers about extraterrestrial source but excluding for brevity ...). Therein is the logical/epistemic breakdown: planetary wave transport, through mid latitude weak gradient summertime/seasonality, is almost non-existent. It is too weak and transport momentum decay prior to the intrusion altitudes of the PV/high altitudes ( stratosphere) over the AO domain. Most of autumn is in fact still in this limitation until later then now. In simple terms, the canonical summer/early to mid autumn hemisphere is physically excluding those two disparate fields from the only pathway empirically and geo-physically demoed as a means for the S to affect the N. None of this offers a sense of support to Webb's 'hunch'.

"I am skeptical that the polar vortex is well enough defined this early in the season for there to be any impacts on the troposphere. That said, if there is an impact on our sensible weather, which I am doubtful of, then I would expect a very cold November." Seems about right. Personally, I think we are waiting on two main things to determine the early character of this winter. 1. Does the wet pattern start by the end of next weekend? Models have advertised this for a while and I'd argue its the first real sign of the el-nino coupling with the atmosphere in a way that matters for us. If this pattern is continuously can-kicked that is a sign of trouble for our STJ hopes this winter. 2. Does the SSW occur? If so, do we see a related cold air outbreak on the models for late November? Additionally, how does the AO and NAO respond. If we get a favorable AO/NAO showing up on forecasts for November and December I'd argue that is a good sign we might have a shot this winter.

Weird to see clouds in the sky. I swear I haven't seen any for like 10 days

As expected then The surface-level weather effects from a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in the United States typically last for 2 to 6 weeks on average. [1] While a major SSW event drastically disrupts the polar vortex high up in the stratosphere, its effects do not impact ground weather immediately. Instead, there is a 10- to 20-day time lag as the atmospheric changes ripple downward to the surface, causing the jet stream to become wavy and unstable. [1, 2, 3] Once those effects arrive, the impacts on U.S. weather patterns include: Prolonged Cold Spells: Rather than a brief cold snap, the weak polar vortex patterns lock in atmospheric blocks that can extend below-average temperatures for several weeks. [1, 2] Increased Storminess: A wavy jet stream frequently shifts the storm track, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation and winter storms. [1, 2] Regional Variation: An SSW event does not guarantee uniform cold across the entire country. For instance, a collapsed or split polar vortex often unleashes severe cold into regions like the Northern Plains or the Midwest, while other regions like the Eastern Seaboard can occasionally experience temporary warming depending on exactly where the cold air mass migrates. [1, 2, 3] The previous expectations of a back loaded winter by many might turn into a front and back loaded winter with a break in the middle in January - time will tell

Yes they do have a selection. Not everything but some. Looking for something in particular?

@SnowenOutThere WRT advice, first of all I have made so many mistakes in my life I don't know how valid any advice I give would be. But a few things I think I think now... 1) Invest your energy in people who deserve it 2) focus most of your attention on things you have a modus of control, don't waste energy on fights you have very little ability to affect change 3) if you are going to invest a lot of time and energy on external abstract fights...the one I think is most worth fighting right now is trying to change the landscape of the information infrastructure of our society. Long term I don't think the battles we are fighting are winnable in the current information ecosphere. We lost the editorial system that produced an objective reality and truth for society. There was plenty wrong with that system, but at least it stood to prevent society from being inundated with BS and falling victim to a reality where anyone can say anything and it all seems to hold equal value. I am not sure what the solution is. 30 years ago the solution was to never let us get to this point. To not allow companies like Fox to circumvent established regulations on news by registering themselves as "entertainment" while portraying themselves as "news". The left was asleep at the wheel while the right systemically attacked the sources of our information so they could win a long term framework argument with society. Destroying objective truth is very valuable to people who hold opinions contrary to all objective evidence. This then became amplified when the internet, which is largely unregulated, became the main source of information. How to put that back in the bag now? It will be very difficult but we need some kind of editorial regulation of what is acceptable as "news" or we are screwed because too many people are not smart enough to be reliable editors of their own information sources.

A good 20 degrees above average today with a high in the mid 60's. Rain moves in after dark. Can't really complain.

Nice!! Reading and waiting for SPC outlooks on big event days is like waiting for Christmas morning on Christmas Eve to open presents

hey bro, does "weathermodels.com" carry teleconnector lays? AO/NAO/EPO/WPO ... PNA PDO ENSO ...etc ?

Neither gardens in September nor car batteries in January believe the cold is fake. And the transpirationally boosted dews feel tropical even when the open hilltops are more pleasant. Citing "fake" as pejorative is a bit silly. 17° this morning, ice on the washtub 3/8" thick. Time to swap it with the snow scoop for the under-porch spot.

Chicken or egg. Society is an effect of human nature as much as it is a cause.

Nino Nov 1-15 avg 10 mb/60N mean zonal wind (m/s) 26: projected +2 09: +15 04: +16 58: +17 06: +18 68: +18 77: +19 79: +20 76: +20 14: +21 72: +23 51: +23 87: +24 Avg: +25 94: +26 57: +26 65: +27 63: +27 18: +28 91: +28 69: +29 15: +30 02: +30 86: +30 82: +30 23: +32 53: +32 97: +34

Ridgey look through Day 10 Nov 5/6

Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (2023) NYC: 83 (1919) LGA: 82 (2023) JFK: 81 (2023) Lows: EWR: 25 (1936) NYC: 29 (1976) LGA: 33 (1976) JFK: 30 (1976) Historical: 1846: In the spring of 1846, a group of nearly 90 emigrants left Springfield, Illinois, and headed west to California. The Donner party arrived at the Great Salt Lake and still needed to cross the Sierra Nevada Mountains late in the season. On this day, a heavy snowfall blocked the pass, thus trapping the emigrants. Only 45 of the original 89 emigrants reached California the following year. 1846: A group of inexperienced travelers was caught unaware by a major storm which dumped 5 feet of snow on Donner Pass in California. Their wagons and cattle were trapped along with them and only 45 of the 79 people in the party survived the winter. The group came to be known as the Donner Party, a part of western folklore. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1919: 87° Maximum late season record in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records) Record highs were up and down the East Coast including: Lynchburg, VA: 88°, Baltimore, MD: 87°, Richmond, VA: 87°, Washington, DC: 87°, Charlotte, NC: 86°, Greensboro, NC: 86°, Raleigh, NC: 86°, Savannah, GA: 86°, Norfolk, VA: 86°, Roanoke, VA: 86°, Huntington, WV: 85°, Wilmington, NC: 85°, Atlanta, GA: 84°, Wilmington, DE: 83°, New York (Central Park), NY: 83°, Hartford, CT: 81°, Boston, MA: 81°, Milton, MA: 81°, Asheville, NC: 80°, Harrisburg, PA: 79°, Worcester, MA: 76°, Avoca, PA: 75° and Williamsport, PA: 75°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1936 - The temperature at Layton, NJ, dipped to 9 above zero to establish a state record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel) 1971 - A severe early season blizzard raged across the Plateau Region and Rocky Mountain Region. Heavy snow blocked railroads and interstate highways, and record cold accompanied the storm. Lander WY received 27 inches of snow, and the temperature at Big Piney WY plunged to 15 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) 1973: Several inches of snow fell in the Georgia Mountains. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Thunderstorms over the San Joaquin Valley of California produced three-quarters of an inch of rain in thirty minutes at Placerville, and caused numerous power outages due to lightning. Rain began to diminish in the northeastern U.S., but some flooding continued in Vermont, eastern New York and northern New Jersey. One inch rains in Vermont clogged culverts and sewers with fallen leaves, resulting in erosion of dirt roads. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Valentine, NE, dipped to 8 degrees, and Cutbank, MT, reported a morning low of one degree above zero. The temperature at Estes Park CO dipped to 15 degrees, but then soared thirty degrees in less than thirty minutes. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - A storm crossing the western U.S. produced 10 to 20 inches of snow across northern and central Wyoming, with 22 inches reported at Burgess Junction. Seven cities in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings again warmed into the 70s. Alpena MI reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: 2.4 inches of snow at Yakima, WA was enough to tie the record for most ever snowfall in the entire month of October. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

55 / 34 the nice stretch continues on - partly sunny dry and low - mid 60s back to or near 70 Thursday and then a very warm Friday with low - mid 70s. The weekend remains dry but drop back into the 60s Sat / Sun and then overall warm start to the nov through the 5/6th beyond there looks a bit unsettled with trough into the west and systems coming across and up to/through or west.

Gorgeous day today. Mid 70’s and full sun

January it was in 2016….unless you’re talking ‘83? Ya that was February.

Another DY4-8 SPC Outlook at 2130z starting 11/16 https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-95_Day4-8_SWOD.pdf

@weatherwiz and @ineedsnow all excited? DY4-8 SPC outlook will be update 2x a day soon! https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-95_Day4-8_SWOD.pdf

Yes they can, but we have yet to see and epic E Coast snow winter overall w/ such strong El Nino. I am talking the NEUS. Mid-Atlantic one Miller A and they get double the normal snowfall! The cold in place prior to the Feb blockbuster was solid. So it can happen, just don't expect a long persevere snowfall like @CoastalWx wants!