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Same as it’s been all afternoon…literally unchanged

Snow showers now. Weird night precipitation wise.

Well if the messenger is going to make stuff up and mislead people I'll at least call them out. No models show 3-5 for the city. The worst and clear outlier meaning the one you should be considering the least even show 6 inches on the very low end. On the high end some of the hi-res models are showing up to 15 inches with the sleet line retreating after about 2 hours back to snow. Most models including the out of range global models settle the middle around 9-11 inches. You can look through every model pivotal for free. Plus they've been trending snowier all day. Not the other way around! .

This shit right here is insane

Just for giggles and the people I share weather info with on a Rutgers sports board, I put together the data set below for New Brunswick, as most posters there are alums and/or live reasonably close by, so NB can be a decent surrogate for much of CNJ and for 95 from Trenton to NYC. Anyway it's total QPF, snow QPF from the 10:1 maps and ZR QPF and sleet QPF, from subtracting the snow/ZR from the QPF (and sleet depth at 3:1). I'll be curious to see which model at 0Z tonight did best, since I'm just 5 miles NE of NB. Thinking my 10.4" snow/sleet prediction is decent (NWS was 11.9" last night when I made my guesstimate and is now 10.1") and I still think (have for a couple of days) 8-12" for CNJ/EPA between 78 and 276/195, as well as the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC is a good call. Have a great storm all. I might paste all the snowfall maps too if I get motivated more. HRRR: 1.5" QPF - 11.6" of snow (1.16" QPF) - 0.12" ZR = 0.22" QPF as sleet or 0.66" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) NAM: 1.4" QPF - 5.6" of snow (0.56" QPF) - 0.02" ZR = 0.82" QPF as sleet or 2.46" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) ICON: 1.5" QPF - 6.3" of snow (0.63" QPF) - 0.00" ZR = 0.87" QPF as sleet or 2.61" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) RRFSA (new NAM): 1.3" QPF - 12.4" of snow (1.24" QPF) - 0.06" ZR = 0.0" QPF as sleet or 0.0" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) GDPS (CMC): 1.8" QPF - 9.5" of snow (0.95" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.85" QPF as sleet or 2.55" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) UK: 1.1" QPF - 10.2" of snow (1.02" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.08" QPF as sleet or 0.24" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) Euro-AIFS: 1.3" QPF - 12.2" of snow (1.22" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.08" QPF as sleet or 0.24" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio) Euro: 1.2" QPF - 7.2" of snow (0.72" QPF) - 0.1" ZR (this was a guess as the Pivotal algo is suspect) = 0.38" QPF as sleet or 1.14" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)

Was wondering when the virga was gonna go away...that's just little west of me in whitehall.

This EURO run gets me to just about 2' on the Kutchie.

Already got banding here in State College

Knoxville's sister city is Atlanta holding steady at 32!

Oh I know that. We will carry snow for 12 hours after yall. Hate to do that to you. I am getting completely wrecked right now

Ah wow I just clicked updated forecast now says 6 to 8 lol

It is 14 degrees in Winston-Salem, feels like 2… Lots of white outside from random mix of precip

i'll come back to this conversation by tomorrow night!

EURO QPF as compared to previous best run, 12z:

Definitely moderate rates now in DC

That's about same as earlier total wise

I know its OT but I remember that day in July 1989 so well. I walked to worked that day in the early afternoon. The partly sunny sky had a strange look and there was constant low rolling thunder to the north and west. It was warm and humid but there was a nice Southerly breeze. I remember lots of thunder storms later that afternoon. Then when I got home it was all over the news about Bantam and Hamden and parts of New Haven. It sounded like they were all rain wrapped. The damage footage was pretty impressive for SNE.

I have some caution flags, but it’s a lot of joy in here so whatev. But we’re relying on big ratios and big QPF over a relatively short amount of time in a SWFE…albeit one on roids. It can happen , but there’s not a lot of room for error.

13.3/9.1. Here in 21057

Around 28 now with a light glaze on cars (but enough to keep me from raising the wipers). It’s been mostly freezing drizzle since we went below freezing but looks like it’ll pick up here soon

For you guys to the south...

Well, it’s pretty much now casting now and I’m just going on what the trend has been, don’t kill the messenger, believe me I want to be wrong, but you gotta tell it how it is when the models are showing how it’s gonna play out, that’s simple

This pixie snow is wild. .

Hate to do this to you but those heavy returns are the mix line. Some good news is that the mix line itself has collapsed south a bit in the past 30 minutes!

Hi-res models now in range thing that's ludicrous. .