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Slightly south and colder Good trends on the 12z runs

1/23 12z GGEM Total QPF: Total snow / sleet (10:1)

Yea i don't think anyone on long island should be expecting 14" of snow...8-12" total snow and sleet is a good forecast, and its in our WSW. This will be a MECS with major impacts, largely because it will be so cold. But, this is not a record setting storm by any means. Just a major, high impact storm to enjoy on a Sunday. That is what this has always been. Setting your expectations higher is not realistic.

I think the gfs and euro are meeting in the middle, with the cmc joining them. Starting tomorrow the synoptics should be in place, and we’ll start taking the thermals seriously. Hopefully the NAM is wrong today and shifts colder tomorrow. All we need is a 20-30 mile shift to the cooler side at 700-850, and double digits is in play along and west of the fall line.

Schools will close or delay for cold these days - of which there will be plenty regardless of a sheet of ice and snow. I find it pretty unlikely most of our wimpier districts have school next week. But tbd

Yeah the maple models have a weird look. Lots of local max/mins.

Better than MCPS who builds exactly 1 (!) snow day into the schedule. It takes days for them to reopen for 3-4 inches, so why can they never build in an appropriate amount of snow days?

PD II absolutely blew in my area.

I'm really wondering about MCPS right now. Trying to make a decision of if I'm going to travel next week, but I'll only do it if they shut down school for the week. The potential for 10+" of snow and 3" of sleet make me think its a possibility.

Looks like GFS and Euro are slowly starting to meet in the middle. Suspect the rain/ice line will setup somewhere just west of Easton in the end. Obviously, much of precip type/amount and how quick things change over is more of day of thing in a situation like this. GFS likes to give us a nice thump of snow still.

AIGFS a bit worse.

Follows the rgem. Probably just noise since other models have settled on 1 to 1.5"

As cavi posted above, it was actually a notable move in the gfs direction. We need those kinds of trends down the home stretch.

Ok then they both incrementally moved towards general agreement. I tend to watch the location and track of the developing coastal low because that has more influence over here. GFS has shifted NW with the track and is warmer than it was(more like the Euro) as the flow off the ocean erodes the low level cold for a time.

GFS has been remarkable in its consistency IMO

There will be a dry slot but I think it will stay mostly along the counties that border the SC/NC coast, maybe 2 counties inland. This happens a lot with systems that skirt along the coastline. The dry slot with winter SLP's tends to follow closely along/ahead of the SLP track.

The problem is that when Leesburg doesn’t get 2’, people won’t just stop trusting Apple’s weather forecasts, they’ll also conflate it with “the weather man”.

Everyone expecting a full on cave here. These are noise level changes. Snow starts tomorrow night. Don’t expect major changes at this point, unless things get warmer like the 12z NAM showed

I instinctively 100d you and I still agree but selfishly there's only about a month of Malacka Winter™ left and about half of that is apparently fixing to be CAD unironically now... Not complaining but it do be like that

We are certainly rooting for the GFS in our necks, it’s how this can produce close to memorable #’s for us. 15+ is not out of the question with a few minor changes overall.

AIGFS has trended to squash total on north end over last 3 runs, but we remain unchanged

First time all week it's had a friendlier run, lol

3 improved, 2 neutral, overall big south/stronger confluence trend

CMC definitely improved over 00z