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Still 5 days away which is a guidance eternity these days

benchmark is 40/70 lat/lon. this is notably W by about 200 miles thats a legit worry for you and I

What was the intensity at landfall?

Our Shakespeare Weather Friend Typhoon Tip: PRO: EPS mean being more aggressive than the operational version at this range is typically a red flag .. CON: however, to the straw man, having the ens mean more impressive than operational was also prevalent at this sort of range prior to the end January phantom bomb too. It didn't end well for the ensembles. Particularly in the EPS back then. CON: If it were not for the -PNA canvas I'd have less issue with this has value. PRO: The 00z CMC ensembles being hugely more bullish than the prior 12z mean is. PRO: While the 00z GEFs were still not very interested, the 06z made a significant step toward more concern. I don't think that's a trivial or unimportant. PRO: Sneaky aspect about the pattern foot ... the flow is both progressive, while relaxed in gradient. Of the two, the latter is a bigger positive than the former takes away. It's interesting ( actually ) to see that concurrent physical state in the field, but there is in fact less 60N to 35 N ambient gradient, which allows for more timely/delicate wave harmonics to get set up. This whole system seems to be nested in that favorable temporal dimension ... any later in date or early, it doesn't avail of that and ends up probably sheared/stretched and annoying. CON: Seasonal dearth of coastal storm types. This doesn't intrinsically instruct this thing for or against occurring, but the consistent no-gos do suggest something's going on that is preventative - identifying what that is, and if it is less effective in this case would be interesting. Lastly ... kind of a PRO. The hemispheric PV is either explicitly anchored, or implicitly attempting to do so, depending on guidance sourced and cycle/run, on our side of the NH. This is also somewhat sneaky and unnoticed, but it matters because if it were situated over on the other side while a very robust -PNA ... ongoing, we probably don't have any of this in the first place. 50/50... We could certainly see a strong system miss, or impact.

This is from this afternoons Upton AFD: AFD from KOKX

Lot of spread on the 12z EPS for this one, Looks a bit SE too.

The least ai can do for us accurately depict a miller b at 5 day lead before it eventually enslaves us and turns us into batteries.

It sure has the basics you want to see. Ridge over the intermountain west, perhaps a tad too far east but noise at this stage of the game. A 50/50 low. A northern branch s/w digging through the Ohio Valley with an already slightly negative tilt. Agree, at this point I'll take it and let the chips fall where they may. This is 5-6 days out and very far from a done deal either for a hit of some kind or a total miss. Most that can be said at this point is "moderate to strong storm signal for later in the weekend".

One sign that warmer/sunnier days are coming is my cheap-o Ocean State Job Lot solar lights I have on my pool deck are waking up again

This phantom storm has March 2001 vibes

Oh I’m just referring to euro ai as a product lol, but good to know the ensembles haven’t turned into a fish storm yet.

GEPS looks better at 12z too.

If you say no most of the time you're gonna be correct most of the time

First of all you are talking about an OP model - and you should list some examples supporting your case

Good to see the EPS AIFS showing the growing storm potential. Not a bad signal from a day 5-6 AI ensemble. Let’s see this hold for another few days so we can pick up our first warning level event in a month.

Definitely a better chance than the last one. That was a whiff. So feeling more positive about this one

The euro ai is impressive to say the least. Neural networks ftw, though the black box, lack of interpretability of nn’s needs improvement.

No I would absolutely be cautious. I'm still cautious but let's be real here the euro just isn't a great model anymore. Euro ai is!

The GEPS showing similar trends to the AIFS ensemble, though today's 12z run is a bit more suppressed than the 0z as the trough turns negative tilt near the NE US coast.

They were but...lol...euro totally missed the 14" we got the evening before...and then still was about .5 qpf too low for the second part. It was a pretty epic fail of the euro at very short lead

If the set up successfully gets there, sure.

Not worried about the euro, it’s been getting slapped around by its ai cousin from this range all winter. I’m more just worried about the ai shifting this whole thing northeast as we get closer which of course could happen.

i think a MECS is totally possible, but would like to see the EPS jump on board soon

F DT. He occasionally gets one right but is often wrong.