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You can only name one? This storm reminds me of every storm...

If by several you mean 22 then yeah.

Well, not looking so good now. They've all lost it. We shall see!

It would be hard any time of year for this to be snow at the coast when we have strong onshore flow to deal with as the storm comes in, maybe if we had a significantly colder leading airmass. You can see clearly how the fairly marginal cold retreats as the storm moves in. If the high could hang on we would have a chance but again the fast progressive pattern bites us. Storm is also gone before it can fully mature at the mid levels, so we don’t get a CCB to form and cold air to work back in.

Wxbell model Spire only because it says it on the lower left corner

Models barely holding on to snow here, with no breathing room left. Morning runs for my yard: 6Z ECMWF- 2.0” (10:1) 12Z GFS- 3.5” (Kuchera) 12Z CMC- 5.5” (10:1) 12Z RGEM- 5” (10:1) 12Z UKMET- 3.5” (10:1) 12Z NAM 12km- 2.5” (10:1) 12Z NAM 3km- 1.5” (10:1)

Still thinking 6 to 9 unless this warms more

Welp, this aged poorly :/

At this point I’m tracking Friday’s cold temps. Looks like mid-upper teens for the area Friday morning, with highs possibly below freezing.

Something that has been missing over the past several years are the alberta clippers but the GFS has some modeled going forward.

Ya…he thought 2-4” anyway. Heh, these models can jump back the other way a tad too..so it ain’t a done deal yet.

Yes. Based on 12Z data my 2-4" forecast is in trouble. Gonna let it roll and see how things unfold with 18Z guidance and update this evening if necessary. Worried though about the 2-4" forecast.

Figured snow pictures were better than window ac and climate change talk, lol. .

He was talking Snow in his backyard yesterday.

I don’t think this is a case of that. (No, I’m not denying AGW; Yes, I believe it is occurring.) I think it’s more of a case of very early December and it just doesn’t happen that often at this time of year, especially in an enormous, concrete-heavy, oceanfront city. Sometimes things just happen. .

Welcome! Sounds like you're near the Bat Cave / Bearwallow Mountain area. Bearwallow has been known for some good winter weather from time to time. Funny you mentioned the Mid-Atlantic forum, that was my first introduction to AmericanWx as well. Spent the 2010 Snowmageddon/Snowpocalypse blizzards in the DMV when I was in the Navy. Fun times! Welcome to the mountains, hopefully you brought the winter weather mojo with you!

Wow, this one was fun to track, but all over the place. Not to give Kevin a big head, but I have to give him credit. He's stuck to his guns from the beginning. I'll be happy if I get an inch. Not too disappointed, as it's early and I don't usually see much snow around this time frame. I would start getting more anxious by the middle of the month. But even then, as we say for the last several years, we still have January, February and March. Hopefully we'll look back on this conversation by March and say what a winter it was!

I gotta say, I'm not really paying attention to the models this year and it's been less stressful. Just using the ole weatherbug app has simplified my life.and generally been more accurate.

York and Lancaster counties are ALWAYS the southern edge…ALWAYS! Like what even is that? GFS has 6 inches here and the NAM has barely an inch lol

36° w/ lots of sunshine currently. I do think Orange goes to a warning for 4-8". WWA for Rockland & W Passaic for 2-3". Once you cross the Hudson south of the Putnam/Westcher border is prob primarily a rain event with some snow to start. I-84 is the new "NW of 287" line

Okay, this one you'll have to guess based off the output. (for some reason I can't zoom in onto the Mid-Atlantic with this model)

I'll take "More Shitty Models" for $1,000 Alex.

There is going to be about a 15 mile separation of people with 1"-2" and someone with 6" it appears Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

RRFS for what it's worth... can anybody tell me where it comes from?

Some of these suppressed systems in the medium range...I would not be surprised to see those trend to snow in our area. Nice looking pattern with ample cold in the Ohio Valley. Also, notice how this time frame has trended from a SER to a VERY cold time frame just to our north.