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18z 3k NAM came in nice and healthy.

November and during the day!!!!

Just checked radar and wow! Is anything even close to reaching the surface?

In November, no less. Hoping for 8” here, anything more is bonus snow.

That would work. We should be close to that rogue EC run that looks to end the world and then "returns to the regular program, already in progress."

Ensembles have been juiced and most of the short range guidance (18z) is increasing qpf as well. Also trending better for the eastern side of the state.

Yes it’s better if it snows before mid December in our northern and colder regions but it’s even better if the storm hits everyone. I know it was in jest.

You should see the weather models up here in Alaska. They will literally back off on a winter storm the day of the event. The amount of microscale effects and terrain up here in Anchorage make this place extremely challenging to forecast for. On November 17th, NWS was forecasting 4-8 inches of snow for the majority of the Anchorage area and we got 0.

Been a while since we've spread the wealth like this

muthafukkers! KLEW GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/28/2025 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 29| SUN 30| MON 01| TUE 02| WED 03| THU 04| FRI 05|SAT CLIMO N/X 22 38| 20 39| 29 32| 14 32| 23 36| 12 37| 1 28| 11 23 38 TMP 26 28| 24 37| 29 22| 19 29| 25 28| 14 26| 3 20| 14 DPT 16 16| 20 34| 19 10| 16 26| 19 19| 7 12| -4 9| 10 CLD PC PC| PC OV| OV CL| OV OV| OV PC| OV PC| CL CL| PC WND 11 15| 5 9| 14 17| 4 14| 21 13| 6 14| 8 7| 4 P12 5 5| 0 86| 60 8| 14 79| 76 14| 13 23| 14 12| 18999999 P24 6| 87| 63| 80| 76| 23| 23| 999 Q12 0 0| 0 2| 1 0| 0 4| 5 0| 0 0| | Q24 0| 2| 1| 4| 5| 0| | T12 0 0| 0 1| 2 1| 0 1| 1 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 T24 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 PZP 2 0| 4 1| 1 1| 7 7| 13 6| 9 7| 8 6| 10 PSN 92 93| 92 45| 32 92| 87 67| 53 67| 72 61| 80 76| 67 PRS 4 2| 2 24| 35 4| 1 11| 13 12| 5 8| 4 3| 5 TYP S S| S RS| RS S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S SNW 0| 1| 0| 6| 1| 0| |

Just had first squall move thru.

The way I see it not paying enough attention to ball security is all a part of that preparation. Remember last year when he took responsibility for the penalty problems, and then they got better towards the end of the season? This tells it's something he's let slip (like a lot of other things). See this is why I've been saying that...Harbaugh just doesn't have the energy to stay on top of things anymore--home primetime games under Harbaugh have almost always been MONEY (only two losses heading into this season--and one of those was during COVID!). But now we've lost twice just this year? Nah, man. And you just look at him...he seems warn out, and doesn't have the same fire like he did earlier in his career. It's not like Pete Caroll or Andy Reid at 63...The way HIS aging process is going, it actually seems like he's older. This is why he needs to go ahead and retire, imo

Sweet! Stake depth?

Watch out for those COD snow maps, their algorithm ain't right. Go with pivotal snow maps. Also 10/1 gonna be closer to reality. Might go Kuchera on anything past early Sunday morning (if it's there) and next week. Like I said on my call I'm literally still on the make or break line lol ( kitchen sink climo for these slow cutters). For the record the Ukie and the Canuk have been the most consistent in their forecast the last 60 hours or so. Whether they verify well.... KIND calling for roughly 3-5 here but 2 miles to my N IWX is calling for 4-8 Iol. Sticking to my guns on my 6" call as we tend to underperform by a bit or overperform by a lot in these setups where the low tracks just to the NW by the southern lake yet there's decent antecedent cold air in place prior. While I think we may get some liquid I thing it may only be a couple hundredths of drizzle at most. This is a setup where a dry slot could be my friend. Think I'm in good spot to avoid a rainer chaser. Sub surface ground temps around my property are just above freezing in full sun so I dont think there will be a lot of melting but there could certainly be a little bit. Wipe the board properly when measuring and compaction dont count in a total! Regardless it looks like Nov '25 will beat my entire winter last year which is really BAD! lol. I think you, Kokomo and even Tipton in a lot better shape. As it says in Stebo's comment in my sig, I'm a bird fart away from warning snows or slushy mud-cicles lol. Good luck!

Some seem to think getting a perfect setup in early Dec is the way it should be. In fact there is a reason most of us average under 4 inches up to Dec 15th, although the 3rd to 5th seems to be a special period in good years.

Iwx just upped the amounts to 9 to 14, must be something juicy in the 18Z suite

Yeah, just after posting about indexs showing positive AO and NAO just like that the Model's flip to showing them going negative and the very Pattern that's needed.

Yes it can, storms can deepen more, perhaps more cold air to work with. Storm track is still key

Yup, it was 3” in 24 when I posted that. Two hours later it’s 5”. Really not much difference between 1,500ft and 3,000+ feet. 1” last night and 4” since 6am.

and.... dumping supposed to go to the Trans Siberian Orchestra in Manchester tonight hopefully ther roads don't get to bad..

Must be contagious. First it was GRR for several years, now DTX too. I agree with you 100%. Second busiest holiday travel day in conjunction with 5-8” of snow and 30+ mph winds… just issue the warning. For many it’s the difference between waiting a day or two and just hunkering down vs. in the ditch with a wrecked vehicle or worse. Who cares if the amount of snow doesn’t specifically meet “warning” criteria, it’s irrelevant when it comes to life & safety IMO.

Just got really dark I think were about to rip here

awesome!!

Any chance the NAO going negative right in time for the Dec 2nd storm helps out any?

Yeah a few bursts here. It whitens…it melts. Rinse repeat.