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  2. Brian5671
    look at radar
  3. michsnowfreak
    Its not just the Euro. The CANSIPS has been unwavering with a likely too-cold look. And the CFS with its daily changes hasnt gone bonkers with warmth either and has stayed hell bent on a cold most-of-the-country look in Feb-Mar (except the far north, which is a moot point for snow lovers that far north). Im not making ANY forecast, Im just saying its not April or May anymore. Its now August, and the same models that ARE showing a record strong El Nino ARE NOT showing a record warm winter. Nor are they getting warmer as we get closer. If it was the opposite and all models showed it unexpectedly warm, say historic warm (since we already expect a warm look in a strong nino)....the SAME people dismissing these models now would be analyzing them verbatim.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    All you have to do is look at the previous robust el ninos. There are only really 2 scenarios that make sense here: 1. carry over el nino, like 1987 2. backlash la nina, like 1972 and 1998. If the el nino wasn't going to be outlier strength, I would say 2 was a forgone conclusion. But the el nino might be so strong, the carry over solution cannot be ruled out. I don't know which scenario is going to happen, but it should become obvious by late spring/early summer. For example, by May/June 2010, anyone could see it was pretty clear that a strong la nina was forming.
  5. NEG NAO
    already the flood warnings are starting south of us - headed this way - expect a Flood Watch at some point the next few days IMO FFW from KPHI
  6. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  7. steve392
    How's today looking for storm around the nyc area?
  8. roardog
    There’s nothing wrong with what Snowman posts. It’s just he posts tweets saying basically the same thing by different people multiple times a day and week. It’s a little obnoxious IMO.
  9. Damage In Tolland
    Last summer we had a lot of storms that were good hits .There was a bunch of good storms after that . Until mid Augdewst when summer ended
  10. michsnowfreak
    For your area and mine its literally impossible. For a place like NYC or Philly its POSSIBLE but EXTREMELY unlikely. How winters like 1972-73 or 1997-98 happened are insane to even think about. Even in a terrible pattern, "bad luck" has to be involved too. A milder than avg winter is obviously the go-to choice. But in the end, the Nino will be historic, the winter will likely be supbar but not historic. The warmest winter on record for Detroit is 1881-82 with a mean temp 36.9F, which is +8.5F against the current average. The least snowy is 12.9" in 1936-37, which is -32.1" against the current average. In my lifetime theres never been a winter under 20". Raindance drew a map a bit back that had Detroit at +4F with 31" of snow. Thats honestly not a bad guess at all at this early stage imo.
  11. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  12. GaWx
    I don’t live at sea level and wouldn’t due to flooding risk, even though I live within 15 miles of the coast. I live 25-30 feet above SL. But those not worried about flooding/storm risk have plenty reason to live right on the coast due to the beautiful views as well as refreshingly cooling and clean sea breezes, especially in summer.
  13. cbmclean
    One of the twitter mets I follow mentioned this would be a hit-or-miss pattern with erratic rainfall, and he was right. Widespread rain was moving NNE from the SE NC coast and just dying as it moved inland just ignoring orographic lift. Not sure how there can be such high PW and multiple lift sources and so little rain in the coastal plain.
  14. LakePaste25
    I can also see that it went warmer in Alaska/PNW. So, whenever the jet does retract, it could be modeling periods of -EPO/+TNH rather than an MC forcing induced Aleutian ridge. Notice that 850 Aleutian low actually got colder/stronger, not weaker as well. So it could just be forecasting more “all flavors of ENSO” rather than “La Niña like interferences.”
  15. Keith Central PA
    Shocked the Euro is not a blowtorch for most of the country this winter..Maybe because of the strength of the Nino, people are expecting 97-98, 15-16.. Super Nino is always warm. Maybe its seeing other factors..will be interesting to see how this nino performs
  16. mitchnick
    As did 850 temps in MA and SE.
  17. michsnowfreak
    The east coast is naturally more feast/famine and a much warmer climate to begin with from NYC south. But if the much wetter than avg conditions that all guidance shows for the coast comes to fruition, youd have to imagine the odds of having a good snowstorm or two are quite high.
  18. A-L-E-K
    post ur fav russian dash cam vids for national dash cam day
  19. aldie 22
    Right you can only change your name once every 3000 days so ill change it in 2036 assuming I still live here or still live period
  20. bluewave
    The variability could also be filtered through the tendency for stronger subtropical to mid-latitude ridging and weaker troughs than we had in 1997-1998.
  21. Mrs.J
    So just stepped outside to bring in the trash can. It is mostly cloudy but some blue skies visible. But there is a very fine mist falling. Like you can only see it because there is just enough sun peaking through. Very humid out 80/89/77.
  22. Interstate
    Well Povich was better than Kremer in outing 1
  23. bluewave
    Unfortunately, the dew points have been going up over the years here. Much more like what the Delmarva used to get 20-30 years ago and earlier. I was mostly commenting on the better rainfall this summer up here. Last summer was the 5th driest on record in my new area. So everything was brown. Much greener looking this summer. Are you still near the Poconos? Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug Top 10 Driest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2000 3.02 65 2 1966 4.15 0 3 2022 4.29 0 4 2017 4.76 3 5 2025 4.99 5 6 1957 5.26 0 7 2016 5.28 0 8 1949 5.83 0 9 1965 5.93 0 10 2014 6.23 2
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but it is my belief that we will have less MC influence than 2023 and more variability than 1997 due to the magnitude of warmth throughout the basin. That said, we shouldn't have the early season blocking that 1997 did due to the different solar and QBO factors.
  25. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay. The NDJ period trended towards a greater SE trough.
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