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Take a look at it in motion. The Nam at 84 is starting to phase energy and starts to turn east while the gfs continues to dig se.

Thank you for moving that discussion over to this thread

@Blizzard of 93 are you staying up with me tonight for the EURO run?

I did this 20+ years ago and always hyped it up too much. Was great when the jackpot hit though. “4-8 or 6-8 inches and possibly more, and we will know much more at the end of the week” seems fine

If this comes to fruition the majority of the Carolinas will have more snow on the season than most of the intermountain West towns and cities outside of the highest elevations. GSP and Charlotte having more than Denver, Bozeman, etc. is wild. I think here in Billings we are sitting around 25” (thanks To that one 12” storm and a 7” one) which is more than Denver, I think Bozeman too but not sure.

A reminder

I'm in the typical CAD zone and I am praying for sleet or snow. Just do not want that ZR junk. Like I told a friend of mine, if I cut the EURO numbers in half, we are still in a deep, deep mess.

What I really see here is the major divergence more so would come between the 84-108 window of time…none of these are that much different from a NA500 hemispheric perspective.

I am not too worried yet. Its dry like this on average years during this time frame. Concerns: 1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet events early in December. Expecting some nice rains by mid October as the warm pattern breaks down. A good tropical storm up the east coast can really help get us out this stubborn pattern. Said this Nov 23 The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck. If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast. The lows south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time as it appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too. The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us this year.

At least we aren't in range yet to get 18Z Nam'ed.

Didnt think you could read it,it was so small,that was IDSS,just find where you are at then right click https://www.weather.gov/forecastpoints?lat=36.1756&lon=-86.7781&clat=36.154&clon=-86.711&zoom=12&basemap=stamenterrain&bbox=[-19719439.353,1706090.691,-1372338.093,10673494.116]&layers=RangeRings|USStates|USCounties|ForecastDot|Domain|#

Nam, Gfs and euro. Can see Nam looks more like euro here. Also has that back side energy pushing south behind the SW to help fling it out.

I saw that, give us more Eric! Also, enjoy your trip pal.

Totals are going to be all over the place. Most if smart will be very conservative.

Need a break from analyzing the growing potential of a weekend winter storm? So do I. Here is some long range stuff.... Feb 2-7....looks like we get a break and a WELCOME warmup. We may need it. Here are 30 day maps from the Euro Weeklies mean and control today. The other is the CFSv2 from lunch. There is a good chance that Feb 2-7th is halftime for winter. The Euro Weeklies control has two more substantial cold shots embedded. One is at d20-27. The 500 pattern again looks ripe for February. I have listed Feb7-March7 as the next possible big window. This runs a little bit against overall Nina climatology, but I bet you can find a group of La Nina winters which have a small cluster of very cold Februarys. In fact, this might well be a Nino pattern beginning to flex just a little. Nice EPO, NAO, AO block. Again, this is how you trap cold air under a block and send it southward. Precip during this time frame looks seasonal, and I would doubt this would be a dry time as climatology favors increasingly wet weather as we slowly approach spring. As for spring....man, it looks way out there as of this writing. Now that could change, but there are some signs winter may linger this year well into March. If this pans out, Larry Cosgrove put together a gem of a seasonal forecast. Uncanny. I don't think wx modeling can outrun the human mind - yet!

Nevermind…Jan 22 I assume. Yeah it’s likely undercatch from wind.

Either scenario could be an escape path due largely to 500 mb/track changes. Or qpf could drop substantially due to track change and/or moisture content dropping. Always so many variables this far out. I think the most likely help would be from sleet replacing a lot of the ZR.

Getting a winter storm around SC PA has been more of a challenge in recent years. Hope this is one it can all come together and deliver.

Hey, what college do you go to and what are you studying! I'm a student at UVA planning to major env sci and politics. Good to have another college kid on here.

18Z GFS late last week had a crazy run with 30-50 inches of snow in PA and some nearby places-it was gone on the next run-but yeah the 18Z run (happy hour run) has shown some crazy solutions over the years

For the Friday "forerunner" system, the 18z NAM moves the snow about 150 miles west-southwest, and increases the totals a bit over 12z. Maybe one should prep for the big one Thursday instead of Friday?

Ran*y I’m not sure what Old Ebbits does anymore but maybe a meetup for some sters Friday evening somewhere? I can come pick you up if needed .

Not sure it matters, but looks the opposite to me?

Hey yall. Stop. Stop this now.

RAH still have not updated their discussion this afternoon. I guess those boys are pretty busy...