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She was the last benchmark ish bomb?

What I will say is that I think guidance is underselling the emergence of the PNA...I can see this storm burgeoning back into existence with relatively little lead time when that correction is made.

he also said to ignore the models that showed a warm Dec 18-28 window because of Phase 8. bad bam bad bam

"a model run comes in, people rejoice. a model run comes in, people jump off a cliff" - he must browse this forum.

Very astute observation there PF! We were all standing at the top of Vista Peak and commenting on the amazing views of the Adirondacks/Whiteface (along with most visitors that were getting off the lift) and my younger son caught that nuance of the view immediately. He was quickly looking for a word and in the guessing game I threw out “mirage” and a few other things until my wife finally realized he was looking for “mesa”. What he had actually first noticed was how surprisingly glacier-like that col to the right of Whiteface looked (more than usual), and we started talking about local examples like Lake Willoughby. It was shortly after that when the flat appearance of the peaks to its right caught our attention. I did comment that the col looked a bit more U-shaped than usual, but without the aid of the lens, it wasn’t immediately obvious whether the overly flat appearance of the peaks to the right was due to mirage or simply due to a localized area with a lower cloud ceiling. But once you see the image with the help of the camera lens, its very obvious that its Fata Morgana – you can see the refraction ripples in various spots in the image. It’s interesting that the area around Whiteface itself seemed less affected, but I bet more people would have noticed with the naked eye if something had been going on there.

That ain’t science Paul…it’s seeing that what you’re saying isn’t applying to any other region at this time. And What I have that you don’t is life experience…your a kid that hasn’t lived through what I have. I’ve seen this shit before first hand…you have not. So perhaps, you are the one that doesn’t understand.

BAM WX says walk away from the cliff.

Looks like that band is moving slightly north. Should be over me shortly. I am stuck just south of the secondary band. Should be filling in.

I don't understand why energy congealing near the east coast ends up being delayed until the Maritimes as a result of the fast flow, but a developing eastern lakes or NYS bomb doesn't end up near the east coast...is there a gap in the flow or something?

lol - my question is how much of his warm overall bias is causing his doubts about any longer than normal period of below normal temps and above normal snowfall being possible ?

More on th3 1917 cold wave: 1917: A great cold wave set many records in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 13 degrees below zero at New York City. Boston recorded -15 °F and temperature readings dipped below zero at Boston five nights in a row. The temperature at Pittsburgh NH reached 44 degrees below zero.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)(David Ludlum) The state record minimum temperature for West Virginia was -37 °F in Lewisburg, WV on this date. The state record minimum temperature for Tennessee was also set on this date at Mountain City, TN and was -32 °F. (Extreme Weather p. 54, by Christopher C. Burt) Boston, Massachusetts had a severe cold wave from the 27th to the 30th.(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)(Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States) Richmond on December 30, 1917 recorded the lowest temperature ever recorded in the month of December -2 °F. Also the high temperature for the day was only 13 °F making it the coldest December day on record (records since 1897). (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) The official high temperature in Washington, DC on 12-30-1917 was 9 degrees F and the low was -3 degrees °F. That makes this day one of only five days in the official climate history of Washington (11-1-1870- present) to have a maximum temperature less than 10 degrees F. What makes it even more unusual was that it was the SECOND time it happened on the date 12-30. The first time was on 12-30-1880 when the high was also 9 degrees F.A high temperature of 8 degrees F has occurred twice - the first time was 1-13-1912 and the second time was 1-19-1994.The coldest maximum ever recorded in Washington occurred on 2-10-1899: 4 degrees F (Stanley Rossen) Boston, Massachusetts had 17 days consecutive days with no measurable precipitation from the 14th to the 30th the longest dry period for December.(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

This is from a friend who is under the band. Easily 8”. .

Fight fight fight ‘

I feel ya bro. I know what you mean.

And where we are at the moment too. Because the bombs Paul…they aren’t being affected by this idea in other parts of this country currently. Just like they weren’t being affected here during the 2000’s and 2010’s. But other parts of the country at that time were struggling, but we weren’t. So that tells me, that again, it’s a cycle. And we will come out of it, like we did after the last dearth where nothing(very little) worked out here(the 80’s).

The storm that started many online tracking

you were very nice and reasonable responding to him, along with valid, logical arguments. is everything ok?

Records: Highs; EWR: 63 (1984) NYC: 65 (1984) LGA: 63 (1984) JFK: 64 (1984) Lows: EWR: -8 (1933) * tied the coldest (recorded) NYC: -13 (1917) * coldest LGA: 3 (1962))3) JFK: 5 (1962) Historical: 1880 - The temperature at Charlotte, NC, plunged to an all-time record cold reading of 5 degrees below zero, a record which was equalled on the 21st of January in 1985. (The Weather Channel) 1880: Washington, DC had -7 degrees below zero a record low for the date and a high of 9 degrees F. That makes this day one of only five days in the official climate history of Washington (11-1-1870 to present) to have a maximum temperature less than 10 degrees F.What makes it even more unusual was that it was the SECOND time it happened on the date 12-30. The second time was on 12-30-1917 when the high was also 9 degrees F. A high temperature of 8 degrees has occurred twice - the first time was 1-13-1912 and the second time was 1-19-1994. The coldest maximum ever recorded in Washington occurred on 2-10-1899: 4 degrees F(Ref. Stanley Rossen) The temperature at Charlotte NC plunged to an all-time record cold reading of 5 degrees below zero, a record that was equaled on the 21st of January in 1985(The Weather Channel) Philadelphia, PA set their all-time record low with -5 °F. Locations that reported daily record lows included: Havre, MT: -36 °F, Cheyenne, WY: -18 °F, Cleveland, OH: -10 °F, Pittsburgh, PA: -9 °F, Washington, DC: -7 °F, New York (Central Park), NY: -6 °F, Baltimore, MD -3 °F, Atlanta, GA: 1 °F, Nashville, TN: 4 °F, Norfolk, VA: 6 °F, Wilmington, NC: 10 °F.(Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1889: 67 Eastern U.S. cities recorded the coldest December ever; DC had 61.33 inches of snow that set a new record. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1915: Flagstaff, AZ recorded 31 inches of snow for its greatest one day snowfall total on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1917 - A great cold wave set many records in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 13 degrees below zero at New York City, and to 15 degrees below zero at Boston. Temperature readings dipped below zero at Boston five nights in a row. Berlin NH hit 44 degrees below zero in the "Great World War I Cold Wave," and Saint Johnsbury VT reached 43 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) 1933 - The temperature reached 50 degrees below zero at Bloomfield, VT. It was the coldest reading in modern records for New England. The temperature at Pittsburgh NH reached 44 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) 1955 - Anchorage, AK, reported an all-time record snow depth of 47 inches. (30th-1st) (The Weather Channel) 1962: On this date through the 31st, one of the worst blizzards this century occurred in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Parts of Maine received most of the snow with dangerous wind chills the primary effect for New Hampshire and Vermont. Snowfall totals in Maine included 46 inches at Ripogenus Dam and 40 inches fell in just 24 hours at Orono. Drifts reached 20 feet deep at Bangor.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1963: The hottest temperature for 1963 in Eureka, CA, occurred today (with an offshore wind) with its high of 77 degrees. This not only set its all-time December high temperature record, but is 1 degree warmer than its all-time July temperature record. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1968: The minimum temperature at Withrop, Washington was -48 °F and equaled Washington state's record low temperature. (This same record has been equaled on other dates and/or other places in the state.) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1983: Record cold affects the Gulf States. The mercury at Tupelo MS plunged to 7 degrees. For Baton Rouge, LA, it was the coldest week on record and would be the coldest December on record at Corpus Christi TX. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy snow in Utah, with 28 inches reported in the Mount Holly and Elk Meadows area. Strong winds prevailed ahead of a cold front in the central U.S. Winds gusted to 46 mph at Dodge City KS, and reached 80 mph at Ruidoso NM. Strong northerly winds, ushering arctic cold into the north central U.S., created blizzard conditions in western Minnesota and central and eastern South Dakota. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. A week of subfreezing temperatures in southern California claimed the lives of five people. Redding CA was blanketed with four inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Extreme cold continued across northern Maine. Milo ME was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 38 degrees below zero, and the low of 31 degrees below zero at Caribou ME was a December record for that location. Freezing rain spread across much of Lower Michigan, knocking out electrical power to 1.9 million customers in southeastern Lower Michigan. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2000: A winter storm affected the Mid-Atlantic States into the Northeast. New York City, NY picked up 12 inches of snow as the first major East Coast storm of the winter struck on a weekend, turning the Big Apple into a winter wonderland. Theaters and businesses were still open as preparations for the big New Year's Eve celebration were underway. All three major New York airports were closed and hundreds of flights canceled. Snowfall rates were around 4 inches per hour at times in Sussex County, New Jersey, where as much as 25 inches of snow was reported. While snowfall totals were less further south and west, major cities such as Philadelphia, Atlantic City, and Allentown still received in excess of 6 inches of snow. The large amount of snow was a result of Low Pressure which developed off of the Virginia coast. The storm rapidly intensified as it moved along the Mid-Atlantic coast, passing east of Atlantic City during the afternoon, and across Long Island and into southern New England during the evening and nighttime hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 37th Worst Snowstorm 2003: Las Vegas was blanketed with 1 to 3 inches of snow. (Ref. The Old Farmer's Almanac) 2008 - Severe to extreme drought was observed across parts of the Hawaiian Islands, the western continental U.S., and parts of Georgia and South Carolina. Meanwhile, severe to exceptional drought conditions were present across southern Texas. (NCDC)

Let's see what 12z says before everyone gives up lol

I was just hoping for at least some virtual excitement by this point, and all I am left with is a clipper that will produced a mini CJ as the dong drops on my grape on NYE.

NAM would be a couple. Maybe 3 inches near the canal. Could just dig that a bit more, we’d probably be talking widespread advisory

those enhanced areas might not be located in the same areas depicted here - also an inverted trough situation could develop the timing of this event is critical because there will be more people traveling then a usual week day night. A wide range of amounts region wide is a possibility - not guaranteed yet. I am sure I will get a weenie from some here - I wish they would get rid of these 5th grade emoji's here .

Ok bud…I see your point. It’s all good. I guess I was trying to lift your spirits some with that reasoning. You know your stuff…hoping we can all have some fun as we are just starting to walk in the door of our climatological wheelhouse.

Explain to me like I am 5 years old why a fast flow makes favorable tracks for the midwest and Maritimes more likely than the east coast...the west warm pool, I understand....

It's not like it's just applicable to our area though, the concept would apply to other areas of the globe too. For us it's just a product of where we reside regionally.