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New thread been give

Yeah let’s get a few SWFEs. Nice, low stress tracking with the wealth spread around. ineedsnow humping kuchie maps when we know it’ll be 10:1.

Its time for snow. And cold. But mainly snow please

Was gonna post, we’ll take our chances FOR SURE! Maybe we strike out, but we’ll have some pitches to swing at.

Hopefully the Pacific doesn’t break down quickly. If I’m going to be picky, I don’t want to see those heights lower in the GOA like the EPS tries to show. I’ve seen that before. Luckily the gyre in Canada is huge for now.

Someone start a December thread

For the first time in a long time, we got money in the bank up in Canada. I’ve also noticed some of those op runs have a nice scooter high building in. I’ll take my chances.

Yeah when I look at the pattern, doesn’t necessarily scream +AO to me at the moment.

Think there’s still a bit of work to be done for setting us up for the first widespread winter event of the early season. Cold shot Thanksgiving into the weekend has looked more transient with troughing dumping into the western US to set up the first half of the week following Thanksgiving. Allows for heights to more quickly rebuild in the eastern US with moderating temps by the time Sun/Mon roll around. Think any system in that timeframe of the first half of the week opening up December probably cuts. Teleconnection situation on models/ensembles shows developing -WPO/-EPO, good for sending cold air down thru Canada into the US. Countering is a generally +NAO and eventually -PNA, which will allow for SE ridging to try to edge up in the eastern US, at least initially. The -EPO/-WPO regime looks to have some staying power, so I think as long as we maintain that we can eventually work more consistent cold eastward and press the storm boundary down. Just looks like this is initially going to start in the west. Obviously still a pretty long lead time right now. Overall I’m pretty optimistic for things in December right now. At any rate, the Thanksgiving cold shot is still fairly potent. Perhaps not anything historic by any means, but definitely cold with temp departures of -8 to -10ºF looking like a pretty good bet area-wide Thanksgiving thru about Saturday or so. LES potential in PA doesn’t look as significant as the previous couple bouts of it we’ve had the last couple weeks that reached deeper into C-PA. Flow in the wake of the system that ushers the cold looks generally more WNW, which would keep more persistent LES more bottled up in the favored NW PA snow belt with focus being there and in western NY below Buffalo. Could be more of an opportunity of the usual snow showers reaching further into PA on Black Friday as the flow veers more NW briefly before heights start to build and shut off the flow.

.24 rain last night and this morning. For the month so far .82.

WB 12Z EURO: no big storm in MA this upcoming week. Cold front brings some Tues/Wed. showers. Makes way for a chilly, but dry Thanksgiving.

That was my first winter in Greenfield. That was a really snowy month here. I remember going to the Christmas tree farm with knee deep snow in the fields.

Probably that and some confirmation bias on my part after reading that previous post.

Probably should just use the winter thread for now. I think medium-long range discussion threads are usually started right at the beginning of the month.

Giving thanks under candlelight like in 1625?

We love to see it. Obviously it’s all about snow come Dec 1 on but that cross polar flow looks excellent to give us chances. Nobody would scoff at a nice SWFE followed by deep cold. Just need to keep the Grinch at bay later in the month. I was in DC. The city missed on that first significant event that month but much of the region cashed in. It was then wall to wall winter after Jan 1.

Here is the difference in the control for all of December...Notice what is gone. This also correlates with the MJO looks we have seen. The SER wasn't pumped by multiple Baja lows.

Cook the bird Wednesday

Hopefully the start of a trend, copied the URL off Chris Bailey's latest blog post. Then just clicked on other media and add image URL here https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=73876

That’s true. Unfortunately, there’s no daily TNH index to quantify things.

There are some fall and winter blooming cultivars

You have good luck... start it

I think that trough is baked in the cake. It should be COLD. Nice animation. How did you get the GIF for WxBell to work?

Anything pertaining to December really should be in the winter thread, as that is the official beginning of Met winter, and this thread is specifically for November. Maybe time to start a thread for December?