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  2. There was limited CAPE but I thought the line would pop. The forward speed increase might’ve had it outrun instability for the capital region.
  3. as of 4:15 the line of storms is only about 25 miles or less wide extending from Scranton down through Harrisburg moving east fast at 40mph +
  4. In terms of the degree of it being E based, the @griteater graph below suggests it will likely be nearest 1998 but with 1982 and 1877 not being far off. When also considering that 1997 wasn’t nearly as good a QBO match as 1982 and 1877 is unknown, perhaps 1982-3 is the best analog of these:
  5. Yea, should be a good day for Oct festivals tomorrow albeit it a bit windy. Hit 90 only 6 times from May to Sept 26 and now have added 2 in October alone.
  6. Lol the surface is colder Sunday AM Look forward to this, this winter.
  7. -Actually that sounds like a perfect fall day to me
  8. Fair to say that just like 1997 was, it’s the strongest and most east-based of the satellite era. But one can also say that this one is a league of its own (even stronger and even more east based) and probably comparable to 1877-78 or the 1790s el niño.
  9. Hopefully this is last of the heat till next May. The 2pm hourly observation came in with 87 degrees for RDU, which breaks the record high of 86 set in 1925. GSO and FAY are each currently 3 degrees shy of their daily records.
  10. Severe Thunderstorm Watch for entire Metro WOUS from KWNS The line of storms is quite skinny in Central PA most of this will be high winds IMO - anchor down your Halloween decorations or your neighbors will be displaying them
  11. Compared the operational Euro and GFS from 2 and half days ago to this 12z run this morning, and the cold is ~12 dm less cold in the thickness as a steady correction over the span of those model runs since... Get used to that during this winter.
  12. The best storms appear to be well north of Harrisburg at the moment. Those are the only storms producing wind damage and CG.
  13. Ha,cold front is in East Tn,we dropped into the 50'S already before 3PM,would have liked to see some rain but will take the cooler temps
  14. Disgusting out today. Ready for the 50s this weekend
  15. Got .30 from the squall line. Temp went from 75 to 67 in a few min.
  16. Yup…for sure. But sometimes we have to appreciate the little ones too…even if the weenie only just flinches.
  17. Wow the heat came in like a wall! Time to get the shorts out
  18. I had to drive from Warrenton up to Charles Town on an errand and moving down into town off a ridge the change was jarring - from dense overcast and fog to blinding sunshine
  19. 2-4” before last winter would have been a gift
  20. We're close to 80 and muggy at my Wall Township office now. Had full sunshine for about 2 hours now here. Don't know if that will help the storms as they typically weaken crossing NJ but it's juiced at least here.
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