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Nah, it was a legit hard squall Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

9-10 in the metros is a down mood?

I don’t believe the NAM because it has the all-giving lake effect plume over SE WI instead over Cook County

I'm on it too brother. My son got me a German beer sampler for Christmas. Been drinking one every Thursday and Saturday. Then stacking the whiskey on top. Been really good.

Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM...

It'll do at this point.

It is also a QPF nuke (in my experience, it generally overdoes precip).

Can clear,y see the two valleys here.

That’s my ceiling for the area.

Come on GFS, lift up the mood

So mountain waves are not really seeking corridors like gaps. @Math/Met - bat signal for an explanation. My understanding has always been that these are places where the winds out of the SE hit the mountains almost at a 90 degree angle, are forced to compress on the ridges which speeds them up at the top - like a wave coming into the beach. There probably is a component where they are hitting the lower points on high ridges. Basically works like a compressor. The ridge has to be the right slope for this to work on both sides of the mountain in order to allow the winds to come across smoothly and race down the other side. If the beach is too steep...not great waves. Needs to move from deep to shallow water at a certain rate(sharp but smooth) in order to create big waves. The only thing with this...the wave rushes down the other side of a mountain. Just a few places in the world which can do what Camp Creek does.

I posted channel 5 earlier, but the other stations in Boston are going super aggressive as well. Those are some big numbers to already be throwing out there lol

Not worried about the RGEM. NAM got cooler, as did the Euro and Ukie. We are locked in for 6-12" areawide.

My pet theory is that nws goes aggressive to scare people in to preparing/staying off the roads. It's better from a logistical pov to be over prepared rather than underprepared.

Yeah i feel like any “issues” with ptype would be when the heavier stuff is gone…and that would also take a notable resumption of the northward trend which has mostly halted today. But if Mother Nature wants to try it, I’m here for it. It’s gonna be a steep cost in terms of dumping a ton of QPF as snow if we’re trying to get the mixing line up to the pike. My gut says that prob isn’t happening though with that airmass.

What do the soundings look like?

WHY WON'T THE LOW JUST F*CKING TRANSFER WHEN IT GETS TO TENNESSEE?!?!

Looks like a consensus for 6" - 10" from I-70 to I-66 with some sleet. 10"+ up into PA. The biggest storm in over a decade for many. Sold.

If we can manage 1” liquid as snow then I’m pretty confident we can manage 12”, I think the NWS amounts are a little high. If something like the RGEM happens then sleet probably would cut into the accums a decent amount in the city/LI and up to the CT coast. Still time for trends in either direction with this one and if this is more of a SWFE it will try to get as far north as it can. We want a sloppy phase and stronger confluence.

Stole this from FB, But very true at this point....

WBAL fwiw

lol - knew what to expect when you said that. definitely stronger low, would be nice for many - a little bit warmer here, but tough to trust the ICON thermals.

for our nne friends, let's get that mix/slot into sne!

I think Carver's is right about it being related to the mountain wave. That trajectory is too spot on. Is there some physical process where by air can cool near to a relatively warming downslope flow?