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Good Lord. This is NOT going to be a fun weekend.

It looks like they fixed whatever always led to a big negative departure over Lake Superior.

Gonna have to wait until later in month. Should warm up after 15th for a few days anyways.

EPS-AI has a good snowfall mean for Feb 11-16.

Numb nuts, we’re talking after the 15th.

Tweets are often exaggerations as we know. The new Euro for March is still mainly warmer than normal but mainly only slightly as it is cooler than the forecast from a month ago: Last month’s Euro for March: Today’s Euro for March: not as mild with only ~1F AN NE, 2 AN DC, Chicago, Detroit, and RDU, and 2-2.5 AN ATL/MEM for example: April also came in cooler than it had last month. I am wary, however, about WxBell 2m temp anomalies having a cold bias due to their algos. So, you probably have to add at least 1F to what I said to adjust for that bias. So, more like at least 2F AN NE and at least 3-3.5 AN in the other cities I listed. So, again not as warm as last month’s forecast, but still fairly mild especially after the bias correction. I can’t find March by itself at the ecmwf site, itself, unfortunately.

so you're telling me theres a chance

Is this a pattern where we can pull off a February 1983 type storm?

Well sure, the sun is a giant fusion reactor in the form of a glowing ball of plasma - it damn sure’s going to feel warm in unobstructed sunlight . That said, February is still a real winter month and I’m picky, not a fan of March and never have been. To me that’s when winter feels over. Let’s see how the next few weeks progress.

Would love to see a big last half of Winter but even if we don't, this winter has been much above normal up this way. 15.05" so far of Snow/Sleet

Today's duster is just that. Coming down at a decent clip at times with visibility at 3/4 of a mile, but it's short-lived and not accumulating very efficiently. DAB seems like a good bet. HRRR shows an inch or two tomorrow before the lake kicks in. HRRR always overdoes lake-effect but it's showing 6+" over my area. I'd be impressed if we end up with 3".

The sun is real warm even on these 33° days. The end is near boys.

Historic day! I'm enjoying these. Thanks for sharing.

Its still going to be a cold pattern

I haven’t tracked pack days here but I know for sure it’s the best down here since the 2013-2015 block. Give me a nice refresher with this clipper and then possibly one more moderate event and this is an outstanding, top grade winter for me - again cold and winter “vibes” counts near equal to snow in my book. Driving over the bridge on 37 going to my parents and seeing the frozen Barnegat Bay for a couple weeks now, it’s fantastic. My evaluation improves when I’m not frequently going, “wait what season are we in?” All sensory input points to “real winter” and I’m a happy camper. Not as mathematical/empirical and more an abstraction for me.

personally I am fine with what the AIFS Ens show...because I am done with the part of winter where I am worried about getting minor snowfalls...it's time to go big or go home...I am exclusively big game hunting once we get into mid February on. So I would much prefer a 6" mean from a handful of 20" storms in the ensemble...than a 6" mean from a bunch of 6" storms. Give me some HECS lottery tickets and I'll take my chances.

Banner Elk is 3700'. It's a perfectly fine spot for snow but in some setups the difference between there and 4500+ is still pretty noticeable. I love Beech but I hunker down on the weekends. The ski traffic can be just brutal though it does ebb and flow throughout the day. Banner Elk is better for getting out and about, especially if you are close enough to walk. Enjoy!

Say bye to any early spring too…gonna go the duration this year.

I don't think this snow will be any match for the strong February sun angle.

I would be remiss without noting this is day 52 with snow cover in Orange County surpassing last years total seasonal of 51 days. 43.0 inches of snow now ytd which already surpassed last years rather measly 32.8 inches. It's a solid A winter right now. Will see how it finishes up the next 7 weeks to see if it can retain its grade.

They have had an issue with "follow the leader" but in this case their high snow mean is because about 1/3 of the members didn't follow the op and instead show a blizzard over PD weekend.

digging into the AIFS ens its mixed... so the mean went back way up...but the median is only about 2". The reason why is the mean is skewed by the fact that about 30% of the members are huge HUGE hits...like 1-2 foot snowstorms even using 10-1...legit PD3 storms. Classic east coast storm distribution look to them. But that's only 1/3. The rest have a much weaker system with either less snow like the AIFS op that showed 2-3"...and then there are about 40% that have no snow at all and a warmer solution. So the AIFS ens are saying we have a decent chance (like 30%) of a BIG snowstorm...but the most likely outcome is a smaller 1-3" type event.

Plenty of time for things to get worse.

I vote for none of the above because I have Dropkick Murphys tickets