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CMC slightly west .

It caught onto the idea of the coastal first but the euro has barely budged either once it latched on, and is the best model. It’s foolish to think the gfs is right before the storm even starts.

2/21 12z GGEM Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 Snow 10:1

This storm is going to hurt…yes maybe most of us see 3-6/4-8, but hell 50-75 miles east is getting a blizzard. Not fun. Yes I’m a snow weenie as much as anyone! Hope the NAM is right…it was for the big snow/sleet storm a month ago with the warm nose…

Are you sure there's still slush, or is it mud? I was in a winery at Voorhees, and can confirm that the snow on the grass is gone, and it is just mud now.

Watching the models, +/- 30 miles will make a big difference up here between less than 6" or more than 12". Personally, I'm routing for 6-12" and watching the costal areas get dumped on. I'm actually OK with not getting 18-20" up this way, but we'll see. Not looking to jinx anything, just giving my personal take.

Newark, Elizabeth, Bloomfield were all 30+ I believe so yea draw a line. I encountered 15 foot drifts

Canadian amped up a bit vs 00z

6 to 12 is a good call for NYC

So can the euro move another 50 miles west at 12z like it did to come back at 6z?

Euro still not on board eh

Increadible....NAM/GFS/S Range/NBM all have PHL, ABE, ORH, to near ALB getting 10" - 15"+ now....way west of previous...I think I-95 ends up being bonus give or take 25 miles

You should update your location

As I said, not east for folks north, just nudged the axis at our lat to the east. we could definitely see this nudge east or bounce around some today.

Advisory level lake event Sunday-Monday here. Final call: 3”

There’s not going to be any issues with this in CTRV. . You guys will do very well in this. You get screwed on the ones track NE. This exits E or ENE

Luckily it happened after our riding was done for the week. The sleds are fully insured so I’ve already filed claims. The RCMP found the trailer abandoned so I am picking that up right now and will bring it home empty.

The GFS has ANNIHILATED the Euro for this storm. Let’s not be ridiculous and pretend that a 50-mile swing is somehow more meaningful than the fact that the GFS has been correct about the evolution of this storm long before the Euro stopped sending it to Bermuda and finally, grudgingly climbed aboard.

Gotcha !

The Euro and CMC are depicting maybe 4-6". With the heavier stuff just to the East/NE. We shall see in the next few model cycles.

A WWII movie with a Met as the main character? I'm in!

Same here in Staten Island. I vividly remember there was this strip that sort of went along the turnpike, including Staten Island, through Newark that got 30" or a bit more. Even worse were the drifts. I had 40" piled up against the front of my house.

Guess I’ll stick with 2-6” for MBY lol