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15 this morning

That would be an absolute nightmare lol.

I'll take anything honestly. I'm not picky. This is the first time in almost a decade I have off for the holidays (12/31 to 1/5). I'd like to have some stress free snow.

I get the post. If we were going to make a forecast, why would we leverage 1840? Anything beyond 30 years will not help us make a seasonal or event forecast.

Was watching the Ken Burns Revolutionary War series last night and they got to the winter of 1779-80. Hudson so frozen over you could just walk to New Jersey. Can you even imagine?

I can see both of your points. Don is coming more from a letter of the law perspective and you from the spirit of the law. The NAM was trying to show a dry slot and a warm nose between 700-800 MB. While the NAM didn’t get the exact locations of the warm nose and dry slot correct for areas further east, it was correct in the idea that there would be lower accumulations south and west of NYC. The globals really didn’t do well with these features from around NYC and points south and west. I tried a blended approach trying to follow the spirit of what the NAM was trying to say vs the general heavy snowfall signal from the remaining guidance. So this is why earlier in this thread I went 3-5” for EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK and 5-8” for Northern Nassau out into Suffolk. I wasn’t taking the exact NAM run but trying to incorporate what is was implying about lower snowfall risks closer to NYC and points south and west. It would be great if they could replace the NAM with model that is more stable from run to run and show a good solution for the entire region. While maintain the ability to resolve the finer details than a more broad brush global models approach. Perhaps in the future we can develop an AI bridge type model that can incorporate all the models for a great areawide forecast.

I don't know. I feel that all recordable history events are valid and relevant. I am in the minority that average temperatures should factor in from whenever we first started recording. We use maximum and minimum temperatures from inception...

In Boston (proper) the 12/30/2000 was a horrific Blutarski 0.0 bust, so paired with the March storm (which was still impactful but not the son of '78 we were promised) they were kick-in-the-nuts bookends to the season.

I have minimal interest in anything less than a 4-6”+ event. I like snowstorms a lot more than I like snow lol. Hopefully this winter includes something substantial for this area.

-3°F this morning.

I think the state has been reducing usage to some degree. I think they are trying to get contractors to use less overall too.

This looks like its going to be meh on the ice here.

This is what I mentioned to my dad. Our pass blocking is absolutely awful, but our run blocking is solid enough to just play bully ball. And we have the best bully ball back in the league. The fact our coaching staff can’t see this while Lamar is in there is crazy. Also, we run way too few play action plays. That would open things up enough to get some chunk pass plays while running the football playing power. It’s all so easy, and yet….

Didn’t the state agree to use less salt in that area of I-93 as part of the widening project?

Fair enough and most people feel that way, but out here we had 12 - 15" of snow from the March 2001 storm, so less than was forecasted at the time, but not a disaster imby.

Wind gust peak guess for Monday/Tuesday (it’s going to be awful and scary and prolonged) JST 71 CTP 66 MDT 67 LNS 61

Pattern still looks to very northern stream dominant for the foreseeable future. Lots of low pressure north of Great Lakes and east Canada. Could yield a few light snow events for New England and interior Northeast, but still no signs of any amplified solutions because the northern stream is very dominant. Definitely a cold start to January, but I would put pause on a larger snow event until we can get the western ridge to spike a bit more. If we can get that +PNA, we might be in good shape. Until then, maybe some snow shower events through first week of January, likely nothing more than that

Had 2 of those. How about a few 2-4/3-6 deals? I'll be greedy lol.

Severe weather, including tornados, look possible as well.

Back on now, although mostly from PIT north now.

The HRRR is way too cold vs all guidance, tonight. No reason to buy that with the clouds moving in after sunset and torching above the surface starting by midnight.

I'm happy with a few 1"-3" events. Just want snow.

If Lamar had been able to go Monken would have done the usual nonsensical shit. Our best chance to win seems to be with Huntley managing the game, throwing for 100 yds and mostly handing the ball off. The mediocre OL does better run blocking.

Radar looks awesome for you. Enjoy! Can't say I'm not jealous...

Looking out my window, seems to be all snow at this point. Deck is getting slushy