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Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z/12Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas. It could easily look very different as early as tomorrow. 12Z EPS is somewhat ominous/more active for the Bahamas/CONUS vs the 0Z EPS during Aug 12-16. *Potential* mid August threat from NE Caribbean to CONUS as it appears now:

Well Liberty, only if we have and they can be filmed at a future forum get together. As always ….

Pretty amazing it is only 65 at peak heating. I saw some folks out and about in sweaters. Nice break.

this possibly could be the E storm based on the ECMWF probability models

Ha ... pretty skimpy and petty. But I honestly don't know if the GFS run is very confident. The EPS and GEFs means are trending larger heights below 40 N across the continent in the time frame above... Meanwhile, both operational ECMWF and GFS are flip flopping - this 12z run flopped back cooler. Yet ...still the GFS gets a day with big numbers, no less. Flip flopping means limited skill so ens means are more useful. I don't think it's a cooler august. That much seems pretty evident. Question is whether it's mundanely AN or if it may host another heat wave or two.

my o my, acatt ruined

Same here. Actually feels pretty awesome lol, though I'll probably be done with this reset by tomorrow and ready for the return to seasonable weather.

It's not just the trough domain ...notice the heights in the west also inching polarward. Basically it's a problem plaguing the models, one that's gotten more obvious in the last 10 years, not going the other way with supposed upgrades. They have to add heights everywhere when moving from ext --> mids --> short term. I come up with sci fi idea. I can't help myself ... Like, they are trying to wholesale remove global warming from the ambience. Or it's a conspiracy to do so because MAGAt's have a mole in the modeling R&D offices at NCEP... heh 'Course, that myth gets immediately debunked when considering the zagnut scaled intellect of the MAGAtsphere: it could never produce an NCEP modeler, huh

Even when they win.. they still lose

Another 3 plus inch rainstorm in Westfield, and that was at 10 last night. I can hear my lawn growing 15 miles away

The 18th will be 20 years since Wisconsin's state-record tornado outbreak occurred on a day when the 1630 UTC tornado outlook looked like this: The most notable was the Stoughton F3, to my knowledge still the most recent killer tornado in the MKX CWA and the Madison media market. It missed the house where I was living with my parents at the time by about 1/3 mile to the north. Also still the most recent truly long-track, photogenic, Plains-tier high end tornado in southern Wisconsin.

It's a nice airmass, but *shocker* it modified from a week or so ago. The Euro AI backed off a little every run.

Skin cancer as well Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

An east west band of scattered thunderstorms, some heavy, has popped up from W of my area to offshore. I started hearing thunder a little while ago and now it is raining at varying intensities.

Even when I was little, I marveled at roofers in Texas. Granted, you'd hire them at the Lowes at 5 am and they'd be done by noon but still. That's a young man's job for sure.

A Flock of roosters just ran across The fairway.

We are ready with our Killington full passes, Epic mid-week value passes and Indy passes. As always, the goal is 100 days riding lifts this winter. Bring on the cold and snow!

12z GFS looks a bit more interesting with low pressure off the SE coast that gets squeezed northwestward as a sprawling area of HP in eastern Canada shifts southeastward into the Gulf of Maine. Verbatim it's glancing blow for southeastern parts of our region.

Not Cool dude. Why dont you just join Forkys discord and get to know how cool he is https://discord.gg/wZRHd8rTwN

Thanks. In case you didn’t see it, the map says it is vs 1991-2020 climatology.

Wow, I don't agree with this statement at all. Recent Julys have had mean minimum temperatures that are warmer than the mean 24-hour averages from past "cold" Julys. Probably after 2050, we will begin to see Julys where the mean minimum temperatures exceed the mean maximum temperatures from old-school cold Julys. For some reason, you only ever look and compare to the hottest years? For example, JFK's mean minimum last month was 72.7F. That exceeds the mean 24-hour average of 71.8F in 1956, 72.2F in 1996, 72.2F in 1965, 72.3F in 2000, 72.4F in 2001, and falls just shy of the 72.8F observed in 1976. It's probably just a handful of decades before JFK starts seeing low temperatures in July that exceed the mean maximum temperatures observed in cold Julys (e.g., 1956, 77.9F; 1996, 78.6F; 2000, 79.5F; and 1967, 79.7F). I don't think its too hard to imagine a future in 2060 where NYC looks more like Washington, DC of 2000-2020, where such low temperatures are common. I think it's significant when low temperatures are exceeding the mean of high and low from many past years. In the first 6 years after installation of the ASOS at JFK, there were 3 years in which the month of July had a colder mean temperature than this year's mean low temperature (1996, 2000, and 2001).

japanese barberry

Not in the conversation but ... when was the last time the 30-year climate intervals were re-applied? It could be a cooler AO domain relative to a "new" data set/means therefrom. Just a plausibility

Parasitic Wasps are the best. They don't make nests, through. Nuking ticks with pesticides just makes them more resistant in the long-term. If you want less ticks in your yard, deter the hosts from being there.

rclab I think they should hire you to do the dos equis commercials!!