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NAM back to a no show for SNE

Don't dismiss the possibility that interior districts cancel? This day and age many Supts hate dismissing during an ongoing snowfall? If it's going to start snowing during or shortly after the commuting period, and it's going to continue through the afternoon, many will bail.

That’s not that early, especially for the n/w burbs. In 3 months it’ll be March lol.

It's a great place. Used to spend my summers down there. Worked at the boat yard unofficially as a kid for tips.

2-4” dc metro

Well it does say experimental. It’s a forecast based on probability and confidence and the confidence just isn’t there right now. But yeah, I’m not sure how helpful 1-12” is.

Just saw wsw up here also for heavy snow. 4-7"

Yes and why have their costs been going up? Because of increasingly-onerous environmental regulations, including for CO2 emissions. It is not due to organic costs. E.g. the EPA in April 2024 implemented new regs requiring coal plants to cut C02 emissions by 90% by 2039 or be shut down. The cost to try to reduce emissions by this much is extremely high, and they know this. They are being forced closed, with "cost" as an excuse to hide the real reason. It's not naturally due to cost.

I missed it. Woke up around 8am, but did see the lightest of cartoppers…and mostly on the roof of cars lol.

Regardless of their methodology, I think they would serve themselves (and their crediblity) well by not naming it "Official NWS Forecast". It reminds me of one of my old work friends who would weight all his sales opportunities as 50% saying "either they will or they won't".

How does regular EPS look for the 5-6th?

Why? This is Dec 2nd...that's really early in the season where even 20 years ago it took more to snow in this part of the calendar than later--that part isn't new.

Frozen precip seems to stick to grill covers first. And with the black background is easy to see. May want to add this to the weenie handbook at a later date... Cloudy/39F

Well now that we’ve figured that out…let’s see the Nam push the upper range highrr

OK I think the range may be taking the 25th and 75th percentile on amounts. You can eyeball what that would be in the percentile columns.

They blend something like 80% bottom percentile and 20% top percentile. It’s ass

They're both (GYX/BOX) from their probablistics. They provide two identified as "Expected: Official NWS Forecast". One provides a number, the other a range. The range version should not be confused with their 10% and 90% probability amounts. Those are diffferent.

Its a week away. Models have been horrible.

The answer probably lies somewhere in the raw data, but I’m not finding a consistent algorithm in my head.

This storm will be a hint as to where the new r/s line is setting up. Seems like the dividing line has shifted from immediate burbs west of 95 to further out towards rt15 and 70 the last few years. Also, I have no idea what I’m talking about, but what I do know is not getting any snow from this system with a fresh, albeit transient, cold air mass in place would be pretty lame.

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Could it be a preliminary call? But ya that’s just such a ridiculous range.