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Invest 95L has been designated for the area off of NC, which may actually be just one of two potential systems to develop off of NC this week (the 2nd potential one is what the 18Z gfs went gaga with):Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:1. Western Atlantic (AL95):A non-tropical area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary about 180 miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for this system to potentially become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm today or on Monday while it moves east-northeastward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of North Carolina. Environmental conditions become less conducive for development after Monday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.2. Central Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in the next day or two. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of the wave during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. ——————— Meanwhile, the latest Euro Weeklies continue to suggest that quite an active August is favored.

yeah! https://www.si.com/betting/super-bowl-odds-public-betting-trends-every-nfl-team-01k1g90y4v4q Super Bowl Odds Baltimore Ravens +650 Buffalo Bills +700 Philadelphia Eagles +750 Kansas City Chiefs +800 Detroit Lions +1100 Los Angeles Rams +1700 Washington Commanders +1900 San Francisco 49ers +1900 Minnesota Vikings +2100 Green Bay Packers +2200 Cincinnati Bengals +2300 Houston Texans +2500 Los Angeles Chargers +2600 Denver Broncos +2900 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2900 Arizona Cardinals +4300 Chicago Bears +4400 Pittsburgh Steelers +4400 Dallas Cowboys +4700 Seattle Seahawks +5500 Jacksonville Jaguars +6500 Atlanta Falcons +6500 Indianapolis Colts +7500 New England Patriots +8000 Miami Dolphins +10000 Carolina Panthers +10000 Las Vegas Raiders +11000 Tennessee Titans +17000 New York Jets +25000 New York Giants +27000 Cleveland Browns +33000 New Orleans Saints +40000

These folks waaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy down south in the Andes are just getting demolished. You can actually see that snow on the ground, getting blown around, in REAL TIME!!!!! Take a really good look at this vid. Because you are seeing a representation of what DCA is gonna look like come mid Dec 2025 on into early April 2026. Believe it. When you got the Jebman talkin SNOW in early August, what you got here is a sign of an imminently very BAD winter here in the Mid Atlantic only about 18 weeks from now.

Looking at these 0Z models, except the GFS... That would be problematic to say the least.. A repeat of last September simply wouldn't be good.. Except for Debby in August ( some creeks were dry again 3 weeks later ) - the major drought kept widespread problems along the main rivers to a minimum although some local spots had significant smaller creek flood damage....

Didn’t feel it, but was driving. Literally pulled into my job at 10:18 lol

I never got the ACE/Winter relationship. It seems a little dreamy. A caveat is there are probably macro factors that correlate the two variables. Last Winter we did have colder weather after a high Atlantic ACE, with some (although short timed) -NAO and -AO bouts. The top Winter analog years after high Atlantic ACE does have an unusually east-based -NAO Winter, but it could be because of not enough examples. I haven't heard of Winter cold coming after a low ACE season though, and I don't know that it will actually be a low ACE season.. the NAO/AO have been positive thus far, but long range models are trying to neutralize that going into mid-August. These positive AO periods the last 2 years have been complete shut down of Atlantic activity - but that's the macro variable, the +AO. It might be easier and a bit more accurate to run that variable forward.

3.0 in northern NJ https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000qxsb/executive

Omg it was Hogan back from the dead dropping the leg one last time at Summerslam at Metlife!

Didn’t feel it in southern Westchester. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000qxsb/executive

High of 81 today.dew point hovered around 70 most of the day and combined with a decent ne breeze, it actually felt good out there for a change. Looks like we will be dropping into the 60's tonight as it is currently 70 at 10:30 pm.

My son reported feeling it HPN

Felt the earthquake in Queens.

CooL felt it, lives right by there

Didn't feel anything down here 3.0 magnitude earthquake 0 km from Hasbrouck Heights, New Jersey, United States 8 minutes ago UTC time: Sunday, August 03, 2025 02:18 AM Your time: Saturday, August 2, 2025 at 10:18 PM EDT

Earthquake alert From Android Earthquake Alerts System There are reports of shaking in the Hasbrouck Heights area. Check back soon for more information from official sources.

Did we just get an earthquake?

Amazing for the first of August!

Highs: PHL: 83 EWR: 83 TEB: 82 New Brnswck: 81 JFK: 81 ISP: 81 LGA: 81 TTN: 80 NYC: 80 ACY: 79 BLM: 74 *

Nope! Got close though: 69.9 was the high.

The dew points have gotten down to the upper 40's for part of the time here, with an overnight low-temperature condition of temp: 55, dew point:50. It feels so nice, like the dew points I used to feel out West. It's a change from the seemingly endless 70-75 dew points. I probably should have walked down the street to try to take a better picture of the red sun tonight. I didn't get a good picture. It's the reddest sun since 2023.

And no roads…

I do look at ensembles, and maybe you are correct, but I am still annoyed at how good the ensembles looked for a big February snowstorm and everything went poof. Guess that is the way it goes. WB 18Z Euro is wet again west of the bay, and still raining at end of the run on Friday. WB 18Z EURO ensembles are also wetter through Friday afternoon compared to 12Z.

There's no managing the vast wilderness that are the Canadian boreal forests. They are not only massive but basically depopulated of people.

I had a cookout during the late afternoon and early evening. To me the mid to upper 70s here felt perfect for it.