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Mid week soaker prospects looking good, drought kept in check

A long time ago there was a poster form NWS ... his name was Ekster He told me that the NAM has winter algorithms and that they were "not yet switched to warm season" once when we were looking at the warm early spring possibility. I wonder if that's still true. Granted we have a snow pack but ... we'll probably be mixing better tomorrow whence we'll be mad melting. I think it's fascinating if people let it ... to test how warmth performs running up over this glacier. lol

46 and cloudy here

Pretty much cleared up in the last hour here. Temp up to 58.

Yeah, I mean it’s still been a great winter, snow depth days way up, and shows the overall importance as a skier if getting that deep early season base and then being able to ride that out. Been skiing the glades since November… it really lengthens the ski season. Feel like we’ve been at 30-45” depth in the base area for 2+ months now too.

Skies finally brightening...yippee. Still mid 50s.

He is probably looking at the temps which will always be woefully low.

Just had the first TOR warning issued. Several thunderstorm warnings also out currently.

Sun in Calvert finally. Still cool, 56F.

12z AI EPS for the period. The ingredients are there, we just need a specific chance or two to track in the window.

SUN in Columbia

It is however precarious ... any time you have polar air amassing into Ontario, with > sfc pressure than what is in our area/SE ... that's teetering with correcting that boundary S. But the model run itself was not "lost of Tuesday's warmth"

Just hard to buy with SW flow

165 now, might be upgraded to EF4

Glad we don't live there.

This is 21z Tues afternoon on the NAM I'm not seeing a raging argument here for a warm failure on that day ( relative to climo and previous ideas -)

Still cloudy and foggy here with a temp of 44.

That's why we shouldn't have created a Spring thread so damn early. It becomes confusing which thread to post in? Stuff out by Pitt... 48F/Overcast

I set that to be 1951 -2020 just to be clear. I didn't say "below" anything. Not sure what you mean there. It was in regards to this tenor that this winter's somehow 'more like it's supposed to be'. Not sure that's wise. Too much data and actual math ( geophysical ) to suggest that is the case.

86 here for a high. Probably could have hit 90 if it was sunny all day. Amazing how hot that sun is already in March.

Don’t do it

18z NAM lost the Tuesday warmth

I’m pretty sure nobody is expecting to be multiple degrees below the 1951-1980 climate baseline going forward.

Wedge is breaking!