All Activity

Violent thunder woke me up around 1am. Is fire island ok?

Dissapointing die off near I80 overnight, after 2+ near Trenton and apparently 1-1.5 parts of southeast LI earlier today. This afternoon-night should be active with mesoscale SVR/FF reports. Leftover rain Wed morning LI-NJ. I probably wont be back on til late today.

3K and HRRR showing an active afternoon into evening.

https://x.com/WxRiskGrains/status/1939524075975581933

Can’t get thunderstorms over land anymore.

Another of meteorological summer, another month of relentless rain for 2025 (especially some days of biblical rainfall)

78/75

Congrats Nantucket.

Finished the month with 6.21" of rain for this June, just 0.45" away from reaching the top 10 wettest Junes on record. Top 10 Wettest Junes (DAY) 1. 10.59" - 1958 2. 9.54" - 1980 3. 9.09" - 1903 4. 7.88" - 2015 5. 7.59" - 1924 6. 7.43" - 2017 7. 7.32" - 1902 8. 7.22" - 1932 9. 7.13" - 1928 10. 6.66" - 1986

Steined this morning . Wonder how he’ll get us this afternoon?

June Verification:

Loud, windy storms around 10:30-11 last night left exactly an inch. Tired of lawn mowing...as every year.

Updated Cansips just out, though dry for the winter, keeps it BN most areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. This is a link starting in November. Summer is reasonably tolerable over most of the conus too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 500mb starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 Enso starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

Final June numbers:

Updated Cansips just out, though dry for the winter, keeps it BN most areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. This is a link starting in November. Summer is reasonably tolerable over most of the conus too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 500mb starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 Enso starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

5.85 total rain for the month of June.

0z wasn't the worst in the world but definitely could use a nice wide spread MCS to soak the area instead of the spotty pop up stuff it looks we'll be getting

Moderate risk for excessive rainfall for much of the area and slight for the rest. Expect more flood watches. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php eta…flood watches were already hoisted

Lots of beer Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Make em say ugh uggghh na na, na na

Hope everyone is safe and nobody gets flooded, These kind of storms are deceiving on the yearly totals. Mostly all run off

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 439 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 PAZ036-057-059-063>066-020845- Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 439 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Additionally, strong to severe thunderstorm wind gusts are possible this afternoon and early this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

90 was the high yesterday. .49 rain yesterday.

I always get kind of lost looking back for the updated posts.. you might want to consider making a new post for every new data, projections and all. It's a little easier to navigate and we know when it's happening by seeing a new post in the thread. I need to come back for the rest of the year in this contest! So far I'm performing lower than I thought I should. I used to go with the least popular numbers, but the scoring isn't per place, it's only deviations from values, so it's better to not go against the grain.