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Pivotal's maps don't have a separate "sleet" frame. Just the frozen.

Im telling you, it can be a real stubborn s.o.b. at times. If it doesnt budge and it is wrong, they seriously should retire it.

That’s a big tick

I liked the map 40/70 posted and wouldn't really have any different numbers to suggest except to say there is potential here for up to 20-25 inch local amounts in central MA to n/c CT. That 18z GFS evolution looks promising and you have to wonder if there is any room for further intensification of the coastal on that sort of arc near the NJ coast past LI and near the islands off Cape Cod. If so this would start to approach Blizzard criteria. With that frigid air mass in place as storm approaches, it will take a long time for any taint to approach New England at any point and I could picture that being more of an issue in PA-NJ then pulled back into the circulation as the coastal absorbs the primary. And it looks like the pattern is far from being done too. Good times !!

Definitely wetter this panel vs 12z

Hp is 1053 so not weak

Wow, that didn't take long! Hit 49.0 this afternoon around 2 pm, already down to 34.9/17.7 at 6:15 pm.

If we keep seeing southern trends we may be back and in a good way. .

I just threw my red flag to Cuba.

Haven't even seen it yet...was doing some laundry, cleaning.

These slow methodical ticks south/more southerly transfer give me some jan 2022 vibes. That system was a lot drier but nonetheless.

1/22 18z GEFS total mean QPF storm Total snow / sleet mean (10:1) Lean LP

GFS has been poor with thermals all winter, no way I'm trusting it despite how good it looks. I think Philly burbs should do well (6-8"+), there'll be a threat of mixing in the SE burbs in NJ. I'm expecting at least an hour of sleet here after a nice front-loaded dump of snow, highly doubt we see rain but hi-res models will begin to come into play soon.

I may have said this earlier but I remember 2022 having some similarities to a lesser extreme from a qpf standpoint. I recall that puppy looking like all sleet and some frz rain and then it kept trending further south with the transfer until go time. We landed with a transfer from roughly Chattanooga to Charleston and got a good half foot of sleet/snow.

Fwiw,

For shits and giggles, do you have the Kuchera map?

I had to refill our propane earlier at food lion and it wasn’t bad but she said lines were wrapped around the aisle

The CFS v2 is pretty much heading toward a super Nino. I’m not sure anything currently indicates that an outcome like that is likely.

Euro not backing off.

Hmm maybe trending to the GFS??

Euro AI is great. Forget the op euro lol

The GFS hasn’t budged with the redevelopment location off the coast