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The same repeating pattern year after year. Same background state. Different night, same ending

Where did this heavy rain come from? Certainly not modeled like this

MEX already has 97° for BDL Tue.

Low of 63 with a hefty .73” of rainfall.

Love that NBC has the records on the graphic. What a summer about to roll in.

Considering, but not acting upon a possible thread for interior NJ first June 3 or more 100 degree days, occurring next week. Blend of Models is several degrees under 100. I want to see how temps play this Thursday (KEWR 90?), and subsequent modeling. Much can interrupt excessive heat, including sea breezes, thunderstorms, cloud debris. TOO early but for me, worthy of monitoring. 105 "heat index" - think that is our warning criteria up here, has according to WPC statisitcs is around a 60% chance of occurrence Monday and Tuesday. Here is Tuesday's early morning WPC prediction for Tuesday. Click for clarity and use the graph for probability interpretation.

This is not your typical heat wave coming up. Ensembles and model runs are getting more intense every day. This is some historic stuff coming up. 600dm showing up on GFS

Hottest euro run yet

.65" in the last 12 hours, 2.46" for the month.

Another. 07 overnight event total 2.84. I'm not sure if anymore is on the way before we bake but I'd bet all of the wet from me on south mutes some of the heat coming up. Instead of 97 it will probably be 95

Picked a good week for vacation https://bsky.app/profile/wxmvpete.bsky.social/post/3lrs7sohee222

.65" in the last 12 hours now.

WB 0Z GFS is hot next week as well...

What does GFS show. Thought Euro ran several degrees too high, but still we roast.

We’ve had continuous light drizzle all night. Wondering how much we are up to since this event began last Friday. Every drop counts with this projected torch; also I’d prefer to avoid hand watering my newest gardens that I installed in May

Ensembles are getting stronger with the heat dome. 600dm now showing up on GFS.

WB 0Z EURO. Get the ac checked. High heat on the way next week.... with low 100s forecasted several days. Peak may be Wednesday: 106 at DCA!

Continued really strong +NAO/+AO pattern.. the CPC readings don't go that high, but the 500mb over Greenland and the Davis Strait rival a 3-standard deviation trough. We saw the same exact thing last year, weeks after major solar flares (which we had a short time ago) Say what you want about Winter -NAO not correlating with East coast troughs, but we have seen some really extreme ridges under strong +NAO H5 patterns since January 2024.

Wind driven enhanced introduced, could see a 10% TOR getting added if the nastier solutions look more likely

Picked up another .50" yesterday. This brings my monthly total to 4.06".

we have had thunderstorms and i heard thunder a few times here in nyc

Breaking 6000dm on the 0z GFS.. I was wrong about no extreme heat. This is one heck of a way to even out this unusual mid-June cool period.

00Z GFS did NOT have the backdoor cold front Wednesday. It stayed well to our north then got here Friday night and quickly washed out with 576dm thicknesses building around it. The 00Z GFS when compared to the 12Z GFS is hotter and longer duration heat lasting from Sunday through perhaps Saturday or even maybe the following Sunday. And wouldn't you know, the heat is poised to rebuild into the region the very beginning of July according to its fantasy range maps. There'll be lots of thunderstorm activity IMO. The GGEM did have the Wednesday evening cold front with cooler weather Thursday & Friday (onshore winds). WX/PT

*Sigh*. Guess I'll armchair chase an event off to the east after two days of armchair chasing events off to the west.