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Raleigh mets be like https://www.instagram.com/reel/DT3qEvkDuQ4/?igsh=MWRydDh1bjJsb2psMQ==

The "additional details" section clears it up. WWA covers the initial burst, WSW covers Friday evening with the main band. ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A burst of accumulating snow is expected mid to late Friday morning through early afternoon. The snow during this period may briefly fall at a rate of up to an inch per hour and make for slick travel conditions. Then, later Friday afternoon and evening, an intense band of heavy lake effect snow will develop over southern Lake Michigan, and may impact portions of central and southern Cook county near the lake for a period Friday evening before focusing eastward into northwestern Indiana later Friday night. While the residence time of this lake effect band over Cook county may only be 3 to 5 hours, the potential for heavy snow rates of 2+ inches per hour could result in localized accumulations exceeding 6 inches, particularly near the lake from the city southward.

RRFSA seems slower through 22. Seems like it has more precipitation to work with as well. .

18Z NAM a lot further south with the precip.

There’s like 25 or so that give us snow . Interesting

Seems like we will have some gusty winds as well. I haven’t saw that discussed much. .

The storm on the GFS around 2/11 has some promise. It’s a similar setup to last weekend.

Euro says we don’t get above freezing until 2/7. Probably overdone but damn.

The euro is definitely keeping me interested. Guilty. I'm not locking it in or everything but I'm in until it caves towards the others. The 12z ECM-AI EPS were also a small tick better, despite the ECM-AI OP going a hair SE.

I can’t believe we’re 31 pages deep in January

thats what it looked like based on solely the SLP placements too... Definitely more that go both left and far right, so something is causing divergence somewhere along the line

I would advise against further engagement, lol

yep worded pretty poorly Central and Southern cook convert from an advisory to winter storm watch at 3pm?

Its way outside its range..surprised it showing what it is. It's heavily dependent on current radar data, so outside 6-12hrs it falls off verification wise.

ILM resident here. Based on the recent models posted in this thread it looks like we have a chance of 1-8 inches [emoji2371]

Ya’ll, I absolutely love when GSP talks like this There has also been a signal for a "dry slot" between snow bands in the general vicinity of northeast Georgia, although where this occurs is still uncertain - but even there warning criteria snow should still be realized. The ceiling is high with this event and a swath of 8-12"+ totals cannot be ruled out where the greatest banding is able to set up shop.

there's more good hits on the 12z compared to 6z

Roads will go insta-slick in Chatty. They'll eventually go winter wx advisory. Can't justify a warning with no tree damage, but that awful travel morning in 2014 is on the table. Good thing it's a Saturday!

I found the below on the NWS Albany page. This also got me reading again about the Buffalo Blizzard in 1977 when they did record 12" but the bulk of the snow was blown into Buffalo from a frozen Lake Erie. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_1977#:~:text=The blizzard of 1977 hit,February 1 of that year. https://www.weather.gov/aly/majorwinterstorms

Man I’m disappointed. I would’ve liked at least a moderate storm out of this, but I guess this one won’t be it. Congrats Cape, this one might be yours.

I think your trend continued.

It looks like it was updated as of 205 pm today and mention snowtotals of 2-6".

Yes, it was evolving much like Euro. Coastal was taking over at end. Dry slot over ILM but a much more expensive snow shield than other short range guidance

The number of good hits has been steadily shrinking, something to keep in mind for the ever optimistic folks that are holding on to the euro. Additionally, it’s pretty much all or nothing. Either it’s a good storm, or it whiffs