All Activity

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=AKQ&issuedby=AKQ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Morning reading material.

13°

It’s dragging the baroclinic zone too far east and ruining any setup for our storm to dominate and come up the coast. It strings the whole thing out and it drunkenly stumbles out to sea. It’s like seeing a 6’3” 230 pound guy who’s intimidating at first until you realize he’s drunk as a skunk and he stumbles face first into a pole. Awesome potential, terrible verification. The last few winters it’s always something that ruins these setups.

-9° in my yard.

3° for a low

Winter sucks again

Can you loop the 5h map for us? Thanks !

5 with diamond dust and clear skies in Wolf this morning. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Here’s the EPS.

Also, we're looking at temps in the low 20s, or even lower during the heaviest of the precip per the 6Z EURO. As time progresses and cold advection intensifies and deepens, profiles will become increasingly supportive of snow:liquid ratios of 15-20:1 during the day Saturday.

Getting caught between the forcing of the upper low transferring to the coastal

Everybody used to laugh at me when I said the off hour runs were BS…now you see it’s true. They suck. Also as I thought back on Tuesday, that an OTS idea was the bigger worry. Cape cod could see a decent snow…the rest of us are out of it.

I know this is pulling at straws, but the 9z SREFS looking more up and in - maybe leading the charge to some better solutions lol?

Those will most likely "tick up" for the western areas. Our snow comes from the upper low as it swings south and goes negative. Eastern areas need the surface low to develop quicker for their higher totals

Looking at all the information this morning I think all of wnc with the snowfall rates will see 7-10 inches of snow with very low visibility.

I hate to say it but we’re trending to getting stuck between the ULL snow and coastal. Not good.

Yes we just got 12” and it’s cold and feels like winter. Which is nice but it still sucks to watch what could have been a blizzard miss by 100 miles. Welcome to weenie-ville

That is starting to show indications of a potential central NC screw zone.

Here is the 06z Euro .

If we’re claiming storms, I claim next week! We can call it the “WxUSAF shitty frontal passage”?

Hit a low of 3 on the drive to work in a low area along the little patuxent river. MBY was at 9 as of 7.

Both AIs show a possible nor'easter later next week, but look really good for an SWFE pattern after that. A repeat of 1/25...even at 2/3scale that would be nice. Perhaps the transition away from PNAP is the moment for a good coastal?

There's been this low pressure system that's bubbling up from deep in the Caribbean out ahead of this. Which is getting involved with the cyclogenesis. I think it's interfering and helping to shunt it east on guidance. So you're seeing the weird runs with a couple of lows. Wish that thing would vanish. Or get it to slingshot NW by the ULL a la 18z euro yesterday.