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It just snowed south of Tampa. Islip NY just had 19 consecutive days with a low temp of 19° or colder, the longest stretch on record, going back to the 1800s. It snowed 10" in Florida last Winter, which was the most on record for the state since the 1800s, previous record 4". There is meteorological reasoning, it's not because Donald decided to drive his car today. I'm not arguing with you global warming in general: There are macro states that explain it well. I think it's more about you complaining and not wanting to concede that this was predicted 8 days ago, by methods you disagreed with. I'm not really engaging in your tangent about "where have all the borderline storms gone". I said it before, and I'll say it in the future, the Pacific with +450dm is extreme, and a fast Pacific jet disconnects the northern stream, and floods the US with low level warm air. A storm like this gets cutoff from the freezing line. It's not a borderline event at all: Our average high temp in the heart of Winter in strong -PNA is low to mid 40s. I don't care if 6% of the examples broke the trend. I know in 97-98 we had these "perfect track rainstorms" all the time.. I think 72-73 too. etc. I know the average statistics, and you are riding hard on anomalies, it usually won't work out.

Here are some that I got. One is the lunar eclipse from March 2025...if you look closely, those are actually stars to the right in the photo. The normally bright full moon would have totally obscured those, but during a total lunar eclipse, it is very muted. The others include: a double rainbow, an incoming storm near sunset, blood-red clouds near sunset, and mammatus clouds at the edge of a storm (maybe from the same storm that @Bob Chill showed above??). I always like the sunset colors, the sky and any clouds change color constantly.

I'm starting to catch your angst over this and I don't like it, lol I'm gonna just pretend a better PDO will save the day...and or simply believe the next Niño will finally deliver our HECS

I'm kinda impressed at how well the Euro AI did: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026020718&fh=192

maybe lock it until the first flakes lol

Today's split EWR: 47 / 28 (+3) NYC: 46 / 29 (+2)

My suggestion...ride that thing into the ground until jeep prices come down. Those engines and transmissions can last unless you're off-roading on the regular.

Lock the thread, and models come north, unlock thread models go south ... Hmm

Nam and rrfs are worse Looking like a inch to 2 inches for NYC. I was looking back at some model runs of the Ukie , gfs and euro and they had a big storm at one point. I think the CMC never showed a big storm.

Let's make it two more days so it's a clear #2.

Strong -PNA's and +EPO downstream effect is underestimated in the medium range by all models.

Every model in the past 3 days gave us accumulating snow but in the end the least snowiest model always wins

It’s great for social media lol

Yep. It isnt perfect, but we often see the so called 'perfect pattern' and nothing comes of it. We get snow from flawed patterns sometimes.

Yeah recent winters have really softened a decent number of posters in here. It’s not necessarily meant as an insult either…you can understand it somewhat….you invest time in tracking stuff but when you go through a tough stretch, it wears on you. Then you also benefit from lower heating bills and less cleanup and house maintenance. But some of us are true sickos and despite that, we’re not gonna root for spring in mid-February.

Not quite sure what to make of that. On the one hand, it looks like the NA is less favorable with lower heights up around Greenland, whereas the other day or so it looked better. On the other hand, the overall heights are not bad, relatively "flat" over much of the US (and no big southeast ridge). Plus, there appear to be lower heights on this side of the pole and a bit of a 50/50 trough. Seems like that could perhaps at least keep some chances for cold incursions from decent high pressures in Canada. ETA: While there were no specific threats that seemed evident in today's deterministic ops runs, some threats have appeared in the guidance on several occasions lately in this time period. For instance, yesterday's 18Z GFS had what looked like a couple or so decent shots. Those were gone today but as long as we can keep seeing those show up it would be nice, and hopefully have one or two really take shape as it gets closer.

I want my 2 degrees back damnit!

There was about a 12 hour period from 9pm last night to 9 am this morning where it looked like several models were pickup up on a partial phase and solid trend north. And then as often happens reality set in with the 12z's and it's been downhill since.

Steve D is going to be right. Models are going south and weaker.

NAM is a decent rainer for all of us. Which we need badly. Is what it is.

I got to 35.6 today, but it actually felt ok, cloud cover all day so not surprised we didn't get higher. Someone mentioned Danbury airport was north of 84, it's actually south of it, but by less than a mile, unless the ob station is north of it, just an FYI.

Blame the perfect track, lol

I don’t need it to be 5 degrees every morning but I’m certainly not ready for spring. Guys, this is New England. Let’s get another good storm.

Whelp... Not much discussion about actual long range threats, just a ton of elephant dancing. So, shit the blinds?