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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
dryslot replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Didn't even take the tractor out the last couple days, Going let mother nature work her magic. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I honestly thought we would have done better for snowfall in December...man it was colder and LESS snowy than I thought. Figures- -
Yeah I think we all know there's a reason these KUs happen once or twice every 10 years... or even longer.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
dryslot replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Yeah, Don't sleep on Sat night Sunday up here. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
WinterWolf replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I’m in the minority of course, but I am not unhappy so far. I know I got the 8-9” out this way that others did not, so that goes a long way, along with the constant cold, and 1-2” refreshers. So, it’s been a very wintry period here, with good snowcover. The cover will go after these next few days. But speaking for myself, not unhappy at all so far. If you largely missed out on 12/26, then I certainly understand the complaints, and I’d be there too. But I’m not in that boat at the moment. And if we pick up something significant in the next week or two…then this area will be in very good shape. If not, then we fall behind. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
weatherwiz replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
2z NAM looks like it may be icier for up north Saturday...also seems like the timing has slowed down a bit too. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
CoastalWx replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I’ll say this, if we can salvage something on the 15th, it would go a long way in changing the tenor of this season. Still looks like a low chance, but not impossible. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
weatherwiz replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
It's a thought I've had too. I have to do some stuff for Anchorage so I'm always paying attention and after like the first week of December they've been largely below average and temperatures and its been active at times into western Alaska. I've said to myself several times man...this look for Alaska doesn't totally bode well for us. Just wish I've been able to really divulge deeper into everything, particularly the state of the PAC. -
I hope everyone realizes my post was trying to make a point.....it ain't easy getting everything to line up for a BECS/MECS.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
See this is crazy to me! 30" storm - 2 2 foot storms in a week - 0.9" for an entire season....all in the same place! -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Heh... W. Europe actually positively correlates to eastern N/A in classic climatology. That may be changing based on everything over the last 20 years ..But the Alaska thing is true. The reason for these is just typical wave number spacing. When there is a trough in Alaska, there tends to be a ridge down stream. And vice versa... That all said, there's not really a silver bullet - I realize the idea of when in Rome is just to make conversation point. Still, we can't just signal some aspect and assume that's what's going on in a vacuum. Case in point, with a month's worth of oscillation between -WPO and -EPO...that implies sharing time/space in a ridge state over Alaska, yet they're snowy - so something else is playing around with it. -
Paul Kocin cooked that metaphor up. He gets all the credit.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I still think we see the +TNH @Krs4Lfe, so I get the 2014 comparison...but devil is in the details. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Ninja. -
Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion
A-L-E-K replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
EPS look still not bad to good in fantasy range, just need to get there -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I would need to look at the phases with respect to seasonal intervals, but that may also have to do with why we couldn't buy a storm...usually stormy patterns for AK aren't so great here. The fact that it was early in the season may have allowed for colder conditions out here relative if it had occurred mid/late winter, too....wave lengths and MJO correlations change at different junctures of the season. Again, just a thought...won't look in depth at this until May for the postseason write up. -
* shine * started following January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion
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As an executive chef, I support this post.
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Down to a trace of snow cover with 10% coverage. Patches of snow only in heavily shaded north facing locations. Will be gone by end of the day with much more sun than yesterday and the corresponding milder temperatures. Now we wait....
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I was in Waterbury for the December 19th storm. I was sitting in a conference room at the State Office Complex and the wind was so strong it was pushing water into the room around the window seals. I would not call that "minimal damage" to the snow pack. Outside the mountains, it pretty much set us back to bare ground.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Krs4Lfe replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Usually when Alaska and Europe is having a fantastic winter, we aren’t. The lack of cold and wintry weather across US (aside from Midwest and northeast) has been astonishing. I know some accounts keep harping on “2014 is coming back” but this is the farthest thing from that winter. Just mild and dry as far as eye can see -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Usually works for respective reporting stations in SE PA. Worked in my studies for kdyl and kphl, cannot confirm other reporting stations. -
Ridge axis as shown is too far west for my liking but 204 hours out that can and and will change for better or worse. Would also like to see the upper low over eastern Canada displaced more to the east and the corresponding ridge to the east displaced more SSW. Not the most ideal map as shown. Although kind of pointless to be dissecting a 204 hour prog. As we all know no phasing no big snows so a long ways to go but at least something to keep an eye on. DEFCON 5
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
The MJO isn't triggering? - just pointing this out in general... The MJO has a constructive vs destructive large scale interference requirement with respect to the super synoptics ongoing in the hemisphere. As an example of this, the N. Pac thing last month ... That was overwhelmingly a negative interference conflict at large planetary scales. The Pacific just suppressed the wave from propagating E. So to your point, if the wave happens to be in constructive interference then it certainly will add/help modulate the ongoing synoptic foot -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
HimoorWx replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Heard some form of frozen precipitation early last evening but didn't invest until this morning. Never seen ice quite like this. Snapped a picture of a few before they are gone. Longest pieces are half inch plus. Thoughts? -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
weatherwiz replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Certainly no lack of winter there. Anchorage has been in the ice bowl this week...some pretty decent cold for them given their proximity to the water.
