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Weather becoming increasingly jackety.

Wednesday, November 11 2026 8:28AM EST Fifteen years to the day of an unusual early season snowstorm for parts of the region and, especially, the northeastern US, another early shot of winter weather will affect the region today. Moderate rain continues to overspread the region from southwest to northeast. Temps have fallen into the upper 30s to lower 40s from north to south. As the shortwave approaches from the west lift will increase making the rain become heavy at times by this afternoon. By this time some sleet and snow may start mixing in with the rain across northern MD. However, by the late afternoon hours rain will rapidly change over to a heavy wet snow from west to east as the main shortwave moves over the region maximizing lift. Most areas should be all snow for a duration of 5 to 8 hours with the longer “all snow” times north and west and the shorter times south and east. With the strong dynamics of this system along with ample lift and even a small amount of elevated instability, snowfall rates will peak in the 3 to 4 inch per hour range with localized bands reaching 5”/hr. This will completely snarl any Wednesday evening traffic and widespread power outages will result from the weight of the heavy, wet snow on trees and powerlines. Adding to the power issue, winds will pick up as the surface low deepens rapidly this evening with gusts reaching the 30 to 40 mph range. Although visibilities will remain below a quarter mile for the duration of the snow event, have opted to not issue any Blizzard warnings as winds should stay just below blizzard criteria. Snowfall should depart the region by midnight with snow totals of generally 1 to 2 feet with higher drifts. For the remainder of the work week temps will remain moderately-below to well-below normal with low 40s for highs and mid/upper 20s for lows. ...

Looks like historic warmth for much of the month

Last year record early depth on Mansfield. I was optimistic for the winter, but @CoastalWx did he typical, "good for them, but NNE is irrelevant to me!" And then look what happened for the winter! "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" several times for his vista outside his home in Weymouth!

It reminds me when the MSM says, "super warming in Antarctica when temps 50 F above avg! Sounds crazy, right? But when your avg temps are so ridiculously cold, even +50 F is still cold. Vostok's mean month temp ranges from a high of -32 F to a low of -67 F. So do the math! Also, in the polar regions, wild above and below temps are much more common here merely due to its climate. And in typically clueless or disingenuous fashion, I have seen some take a temp anomalies in deg C, and forget to subtract 32 from it for the F equivalent. In other words, 30 C then will be temps 86 F above avg! Anything to push the hot narrative.

A perfect Halloween evening. Crisp but not cold.

And one less hour of diurnal heating! Seriously, I see that in the spring when chase season ramps up...one extra hour of heating! I'd like to say it just trolls or engagement bait, but not always.

@CoastalWx needs to be reminded that in very strong El Nino winters, the only real cold air shots for the CONUS are in the Northeast!

You'd be the one squealing. I got the bow

How about "Downeaster?" as in Alexa!

"Weaker Super Ninos". Average snowfall at BUF airport is 95.4", my call is for around 50". 2015-2016 had 55.1"

Quite consistent pattern w/ very strong El Nino. The biggest temp anomalies are usually in the Upper MS Vly/Nrn Plains and that's is what this shows well here. All on track. That what the MSM and others do not get. Sure, this type is El Nino is not common, but 1) just b/c something is not common or rare does not mean it is abnormal, 2) very strong El Nino in itself occurs naturally. and 3) the sensible wx that results from it in regions across the globe are completely what is to be expected given other El Ninos like this. This a major problem these days w/ how things are communicated. Everything is pushed as NOT usual or typical simply b/c it has societal and environment impact. As if there should never be any or not times it is worse than others? Has the ATLC HU season been severely suppressed? Yes, Pacific HU season very active? Yes. STJ showing dominance? Yes. Big rains srn Cali and Desert SW? Yes. Miller A tendencies E Coast? Yes. I see narrative pushed that due to warming, the wx is becoming more "unforecastable" or "uncertain." Noting could be further from the truth! And this notion that El Nino gets "worse" w/ warming. So why in the last 30 years, base conditions have become more La Nina? See attachment. I was thinking it may be AMO connected, but it was more El Nino base 1950-1969 when we were still in the favorable AMO phase for big ATLC HUs, and since 1995 that same AMO phase for ATLC HUs has existed, yet more base La Nina, so any direct correlations do not work here.

that's me

Winter thoughts https://www.facebook.com/share/1N3iXRz76y/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Thoughts on winter https://www.facebook.com/share/1N3iXRz76y/?mibextid=wwXIfr

forky ? As always ……

Six photos from the New York Botanical Garden where the annual Chrysanthemum show opened today:

enjoy the nice weather

what a winter

not 1" due to the wind, correct? :x

Latest 1” depth at the Mansfield summit stake since 1954 was 11/9/1985. I feel like we are going to beat that. This super Nino fall going to set the latest 1” snowfall at the Mansfield summit station?

@CoastalWx wants another "Wild Turkey Surprise" on Thanksgiving like what happened in 1989. A kiddie Scott went to bed that evening mad b/c the snow was going to miss SNE, and when he woke up the next morning to S+ and got nearly a foot in GHG! Does he even recall this event? Big fcst bust. Looked too cold and suppressed. Models no clue. I recall the NWS took down the Winter wx advisory for the S Coast for their 06z update. Then the first obs from BDR at 10z (they were not 24 hr then) had S+ and then quickly put up a winter storm warning!

I will say, with that absolute BLASTING of the pac jet (lol DT) there must be some jet splitting there, probably a bunch of junk systems/late-bloomer ots systems. 11/10-25? Just a guess from that overall look I saw. Maybe some backside cold/snow-flurries NNE type thing. eventually something would produce there