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We would need 16" more to get to that and about 21" more to reach average. A few moderate systems or one big one can get us there

I weigh it, but I was simply posting what it had.

Without a good BZ there’s only so much this can do

I must say, even though I usually post horrible takes, the Euro is quite cold in the long range and the latest model suite doesn't dump a trough in the west after the 3rd week of january. Stays very cold, with waves riding along the arctic boundary. That depiction looks similar to 2014 and 2015 winters. Obviously I don't think the overall outcome will be the same, but hard to deny that it looks like very cold air is coming and several chances for precip.

Well.. I was joking, however I really don't trust anything AI. I know it has scored well, but that's an average, not necessarily for the sensible weather in our area. Just haven't seen it perform really any different than others

And just like that sun came back out temp above freezing, snow disappeared.

Leaning heavily towards a Banner Elk weekend (Wed-Sun). Just seems like Miller As don’t exist anymore. More importantly, cold air never meets up with moisture east of the peaks. Jan 2022 remains the last meaningful event.

Holy wind

Not that we care about a d7 op sfc map, but that’s why I joked only 28 runs to go.

Speaking of which do you have any resources on storms like this? I got stuff like the December events (jet steak WAA FGEN) figured out mentally when tracking but not really anything like this where it seems all vorticity driven and how that ends up producing snowfall. Would love it if you could explain those differences or recommend some reading

You’re so misguided about the AI Euro. To me in the medium range it’s the default strongest weight.

Snow showers with cold front late afternoon. My NWS forecast is for snow showers and falling temps this afternoon. Snow showers in the evening. Snow could be heavy at times. I guess they're expecting a couple of snow squalls.

It Just arrived in Marysville as well.

Cold is crushing and may kill it. Lol

Anything about the @CAPE storm, on the Euro?

The model should use the 4dVAR initialization scheme used by the leading models (ECMWF, GGEM, UKMET). It's difficult to justify not using the best-in-field initialization at this point in time. The inferior initialization puts the model at a disadvantage right from the start. Once the GGEM moved to the 4dVAR initialization, along with other changes that were made, it rocketed to the #2 model in terms of key verification metrics.

Mood flakes here

Nice snow squall here. Temp dropped below freezing grass turned white with 48mph wind gusts.

Yes. Fun things happen with you have an upper level low closing off to your south.

This is totally a thoughts and prayers event. 80% going to be broken hearted. Don’t think I’ll be relaxed until I’m shoveling. If we could be objective though, it’s potentially a really cool event to watch just from a dynamics perspective.

Idk, but at 246hrs it looks to me that the Euro is setting up for an overrunning event.

The risk of that cold air mass sits right outside of d10. The 12z GEM got to where the Euro did at 240...we just couldn't see the rest of the run. That would be something else. Still, I think we have some light snow chances prior to that...but if the GEM and Euro are correct, that would quiet the pattern after 240.

I always like a little something something but my priorities today are etched in stone. 1.Birds 2.Birds 3.Peak at models Worst case scenario? Birds get trounced and blow torch models with no good news in sight....

If the ULL closes off someone will get a moderate/decent event, really hard to pinpoint that, but models still not all on the same page with that even happening. Give it another 1-2 cycles. .