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I still have a windows 95 machine cranking out NGM runs.

i hear the korean is the one to ride this winter....

Spot the MegaCAD (December 3)

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Right now, the long-range European guidance is suggesting the development of a Scandinavian Block near mid-December onward. That's not an AO-. Your location should be ok. Things should also be ok for cities such as Chicago, Detroit, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, etc. If the AO is more positive, areas south of New England would typically see a warmer outcome with reduced snowfall prospects. The SE U.S. looks warm, overall, for December, as the predominant regime through most of December is forecast to be NAO+ yielding to a Scandinavian Block.

stop looking at the op gfs.

And the 12z CMC has similar look to both the AIFS and GFS. EPO anyone?

12z GFS def had several chances in the long range. That period after about 12/2 gets pretty interesting. There’s still risk that we end up on the warm side but I like seeing a lot of reinforcing PV shots into SE Canada…that’s ultimately what will give us the confluence and antecedent airmass we need. So the more reinforcing shots that we see on guidance, the better our chances.

The 12z CMC has a below zero air mass sitting in the Plains and Ohio River Valley as a couple of impulses originate in the Gulf and head northeastward.

The 12z CMC almost has a winter storm by 198. Big changes on the deterministic models at 12z today - noted that the Euro has yet to run. The Euro AIFS, GFS, and CMC are showing a cold shot around d10-12 which wasn't there on yesterday's runs. It is a bruiser. I doubt the ensembles will switch that quickly, but it is a trend worth watching. This cold front had been on LR ext modeling for weeks, and then disappeared. edit...the CMC is actually close to something good 3x.

Yeah we just have a crusty couple inches in the yard and the fields are melted out. Highly elevation dependent start to winter. Only saw 3” total 24 hrs at all plots at Mansfield, like you said.

Yeah I mean it’s early. It’s hitting like late January pessimism. Canadian further south [emoji2957].

Upslope was a dud..probably about 3” total..big difference from valleys near jay like Montgomery and Stowe village at 750’ in snow cover. Mansfield is in good shape tho, but can’t see shit at the top. .

Incredible stuff, with NHEM anomalies pushing up towards 2C above the 1981-2010 mean as we head towards the end of the month. This has been one heck of a hemispheric heat wave over the last month or so.

The only forecast i trust is @Ellinwood.

CMC has storm as well.

Like the great MLK once said, I had a dream (just mine was dirty).

The 12z Euro AIF is rolling. You can send me the Christmas card later (for saying the first week of December being warm was a foregone conclusion). LOL. That right there is not a warm look for the eastern 2/3 of North America.

To be fair you are in peak form for November.

And this would be phase 8. Now, I must warn everyone(newbies especially) that model talk past d10 is not without peril. But it sure seems like the GFS (and about half of the recent AIFS runs) are sniffing out a potential cold shot around December 6th.

Yes. I agree. I think only the timing of its onset remains to be seen.

And this is a setup that says, "Look out!" This is sitting at d10. As @Holston_River_Ramblershared yesterday, the AIFS caught wind of this possibility first - I failed to note that early...sorry Holston! The GFS is now picking up on the possibility. That is a mechanism for fiercely cold air to be discharged into the Lower 48, especially the Northern Plains, Ohio River Valley, and maybe the Tenn River Valley. There is the possibility that this is being under done. Either way, this is a very cold look at the surface.

The primary drives up into Pittsburgh and everyone flips.

It happens more than you think. There is absolutely no QA/QC for weather apps. I would love to see something like American Meteorological Society or National Weather Association offer a "seal of approval" for apps that maintain things like updates, appropriate warning information, etc. Worse yet, certain apps like Operating System based platforms are largely not customizable and default to the organizational settings. All of these work to undermine the credibility of weather apps and unfairly degrade the ethos of the meteorological community.