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What is hard to see, is the clear, thin ice nearer the W shore. All that ice will break up, and pile. The ice you see is older, med thick ice that will plow into the W areas. Here's todays ice maps using the thickness colors, with egg codes.

Fwiw, JMA also jumped onboard for a storm next weekend.

Going to be brutal. Gray. Cold. Rainy. Muddy

California getting 15 feet this week

Nah. Nuclear winter. Epicocity.

18z isn't interested in a storm.

Could be a little sloppy to start on the southern and eastern ends of that. There’s some red flags, but I’m sure Dave, mitch and INS will be fine.

Pivotal clowns a bit lower…so I won’t show those

Icon lost the storm. Its over.

Whew. But all models having some possibility still warrants some attention. I’m scared this time.

10:1. wouldn’t hate it here.

It’s ok, 18z says nah

Icon like taking "advice" from your most consistently "drunken friend" haha

Of course. Gotta go to Houston (on purpose) this weekend. If that happened, I’d be sick. If it’s on the map tomm, I’ll start faking the beginning of an illness.

MJO is but one possible component among many and a new signal gets introduced every year. Plus the effects have changed. Nino and Nina used to be very consistent predictors for 50 years but less so now. AO/NAO still very vital but the rest are largely research in progress

Not shocking icon h5 is no where near what it was at 12z not even close.

Congrats on that. I made All State band my senior year in HS and it’s real tough competition

Same here. I'm beginning to think you are my weather twin!

With the incoming stm, the forecast for stiff E/ENE winds is going to blow a large mass of ice right into the W shore of the Lake. By Thurs into Friday, that will probably open up the waters where the ice currently sits. If that happens, with an ENE/NE wind, a long fetch of marine air over the ice, with lower pressures, could produce some good LES. Models are all over the place for that scenario, tho. Will be interesting to watch.

Currently 32 F (above zero) at the measuring station way up above Berthoud Pass at 12493 ft. Dewpoint 0. Sublimation city! I was up on the ridge at Loveland Ski Area yesterday at roughly the same elevation, with roughly the same temp.

Bozeman today. looks and feels like summer here. sunny and 60. not a flake of snow. Jives with my last few SLC trips. Under an inch for season. Devastating winter out west and a summer water crisis coming

Winds DC 15-20 gusting to 35