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Temp still dropping, 13.7/9.3 at 9:55 pm. Moderate snow.

34.8/24 at the nearest weather station. Some light drizzle now. Riding out another storm at parents’ in Cumming. Too many tall trees around my house in Gainesville

Let the glazing begin. Raleigh near Wegmans

Oh and I reached out to Upton about radar no reply yet.

Flakes have been spotted in Stafford.

Light Snow, truck and driveway are dusted 15/7

The 12z ensembles(EPS, GEPS) and 18z ensembles(AIFS-EPS, GEFS) all have a trough over the east for most of their runs with maybe a 2-3 respite. The Euro Weeklies continue that pattern well into February and maybe even early March. The MJO-CPC is basically stalled in cold phases through mid-Feb when those runs end. It looks likely that our cold and wintry pattern continues for a time - no guarantees. IF that verifies, we all may be ready for spring when it finally arrives.

I don't think we see more than freezing drizzle overnight at this point. Moisture goes poof as it hits the Smokies.

Is all that recon flying for the next system?

Nice lol

A bit NE of you, I'm thinking 10" snow before we change over, but I'm intrigued by the continued model debate over the forward progress of the warm nose/tongue/proboscis. That said, I've shoveled enough sleet in my time here to know we don't have any sort of magic shield...

It’s also pretty close to what it’s been showing

18.1°F/-0.2°F in the center of Baltimore City

Dry air is going to take a while to saturate until heavier returns come in .

27 F and nothing coming down at the moment in East Avl.

And even then its just low res

It's really hard. We've faded modeled warm noses before, but the setups were a little different and models were not as skilled. 2/25/07 was an all snow event that was supposed to flip. But that's almost 20 years now.

My guess is first flakes here in next 30 minutes. Virga overhead Alexandria right now.

Spent too much time arguing with people about this. I have 10 bucks coming if we stay under a foot.

18/0 Cloverly Md. cloudy parked at the top of the hill! Locked and loaded!

It's on the doorstep of DC right now...

Its the Icon..