Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just think the difference between west and east-based may be a little exaggerated because of NAO domain El Nino by itself supports warm Stratosphere, which over like hundreds of years is net -NAO I think for east and west based, although slight
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just went through the numbers on the intense composite, which is mostly east-based....it's like .67 NAO for DJFM...nothing obscene. AO is is just about neutral.
  4. Typhoon Tip
    yeah it's looked like that for awhile. The numerical teleconnectors suggest -PNA/+EPO with eastern limb -NAO from 24th + ... if folks want to get into the 2nd of the 3 typical heat periods summers ever give us around here, that looks to be a good time for #2 - albeit late. 3rd'll have to be later August but by then ...we're past solar max so we get cheated in New England as usual. LOL but anything to continue being colder relative to everywhere else while still registering warmer than normal, a leitmotif that's had one or two exceptions by has been predominating our monthly results since last summer really when I began keeping track of the sneaking butt boning
  5. NorthHillsWx
    Had one blow up overhead and drop a quick 0.14”. Wasn’t even on radar yet and it was pouring
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is a slight +NAO skew in east-based Nino composites, which while probably still warm (especially with -PDO), it probably isn't as warm as historical analog suggests. Of course these days neutral is 85% chance of above normal Winter.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's probably when it finally has legit PNA-correlation! A lot of people think ENSO is linked to PNA but it's actually more linked to North Pacific High
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    This year is kind of the inverse of that, which is why I think we have a shot for something decent....there is a TON of warmth, but there is more to the west than 1997 and 1982....however, the warm pool is def. getting further east than 2023, so I feel like we will get some periods of Modoki forcing with less MC competition.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I figured there was something missed. Yes. It's not JUST about strength.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Theoretically speaking, if we venture to the land of make believe, and pull off a 3.2 ONI that is just about void of warmth in regions 1.2 and 3, then sure.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Oh, that's in the 2nd part of the post that you didn't highlight. That's why I thought you were only talking about strength. 02-03 was probably the 2nd strongest Modoki. My favorite Winter all time! Yeah it does go hand-in-hand strength and where it's usually based, that's because there are usually much cooler waters further east, much more room to warm in a stable system.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    You aren't getting what I'm saying. We aren't going to get an event that powerful that doesn't leak into the east. Find an example.....I'll give you a lifetime...go. 2009 is the closest, but not to that magnitude.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    If you put your heat in your living room on 80 degrees, the living room may warm to 75 and the kitchen 70. If you put your heat in the living room on 90 degrees, the living room may warm to 85 and the kitchen 70. lol Everyone thinks the kitchen goes to 80 degrees.
  14. WxUSAF
    Spain cannot get the ball in the net eta….until they did!
  15. IrishRob17
    I saw someone on the NE side mention “shot across the bow” and I chuckled. A beauty of a day for sure.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    It doesn't skew things differently. Absolutely not. If Nino 4 was +1.7c, Atlanta might be -3 for the Winter. If Nino 4 is +3.4c, Atlanta may be -6 for the Winter. Everyone thinks it moves around anomalies which isn't true beyond 0.01% general warming things.
  17. John1122
    It's rained .75 here today and some areas near me got 1 to 1.5 inches. Looks like upstream is loaded for another round in a few hours. If they don't die out.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It absolutely does in a sense because good luck keeping the warmth out of the eastern ENSO region in an event of this magnitude.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, but there is more warmer water further west than that year.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah -PDO is mostly counter-El Nino. Amazing the consistency in -PNA we are still seeing.
  21. IronTy
    SoMD precip confirmed - the GFS will be the one that verifies.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's the position of the N. Pacific low pressure. It happens right off the west coast in east-based Nino, and further west near the PNA region in west-based. Those maps I posted above are historical analog of Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4. I don't think strength of the Nino plays a roll, except being more of the same. Where it's based/dominant does though.
  23. GaWx
    Thanks, Chuck. So, temps are clearly colder with W vs E based. Is some of this because the strongest El Niño winters tend to have warmer 1+2? However, with regard to wintry precip, itself, the SE appears to have done a bit better with C based (3.4 warmest) than W based (4 warmest) if I’m recalling my research correctly.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    If anything, -PDO would make it warmer and drier....that isn't a driver of cold in the NE.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    The only thing worse than a D2 MOD risk is a D3 ENH.
  26. snowfan
    The Os just went into Houston and swept the stros out of the break. Damn. Dont give me hope.
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...