All Activity

Pros seem to think it was the best performing ensemble model

agree but the "board vibes" would suffer. even some ice would work at this point

Stop subscribing to crappy maps that don’t show snow and cold

Euro AI Ensemble features BN 850 temperatures from hour 228 through the end of the run. Its accuracy at range was dubious during the overwhelming -WPO regime, but perhaps this will be a better test for it.

WB 18Z EPS AI.... all of the hits are at least 11 days away so hopefully we will something to track by the end of NEXT weekend....

Can you post what you’re looking at ?

The temperature soared to 89F (31.7C) in San Antonio. That tied the all-time January record that was set on January 30, 1971.

Let 'em have it. No desire for a mix of crap.

This is Pivotal. I mean, wtf?

with that euro ai look, there would be a few net-gainers. not here maybe but perhaps n orh, most likely north obviously

far enough out where that can change

Not much. All light. Maybe 3 inches lol?

Looks too warm.

__ Table of forecasts for January 2026 __ ____ FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Rhino16 __________________________ +3.0 _+2.3 _+1.5 ___ -0.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 ___ -0.4 _-0.9 _+1.5 Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +0.5 ___+0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 wxallannj ________________________ +0.5 _-0.4 _-0.7 ___ -0.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 ___ +2.0 _+1.6 _+0.7 RJay ______________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __+3.0 _+4.0 ___+1.0 _+2.5 __0.0 ____ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 __________________ -0.4 _-1.2 _-1.4 ___ -1.5 _ +0.7 _ +1.9 ___ -0.3 _ +2.1 _ +0.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____________ -0.5 _-1.2 _ -1.7 ___ -2.5 _ +1.0 _+2.7 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.7 DonSutherland1 _________________ -0.5 _ -1.9 _ -2.0 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+3.8 ___ +2.0 _ +2.7 _ +2.0 ___ consensus ___________________-0.6 _ -1.2 _ -1.4 __ -0.3 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +1.1 __ +1.6 _ +0.9 RodneyS _________________________ -0.7 _-0.6 _-0.5 ___ +0.3 _+2.7 _+3.3 ___ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.8 so_whats_happening _____________-1.1 __-1.0 _ -1.7 ___ -0.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 ___ +1.9 _ +1.6 _ +1.0 BKViking _________________________-1.5 _ -1.4 _ -1.2 ___ -1.6 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.6 _+1.0 Tom _____________________________ -1.9 _ -2.5 _-2.4 ___ -2.6 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 ____+0.7 _+1.2 _ +0.4 dmillz25 __________________________ -2.0 _-2.5 _-1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.7 _+2.5 ___ +3.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 wxdude64 ________________________-2.1 _ -2.2 _-2.3 ___ -1.8 _-0.6 _+0.6 ____ +1.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.3 Roger Smith ______________________-2.5 _ -2.8 _ -2.9 __ -1.5 __ 0.0 _+2.0 ___ +4.5 _+3.5 _+1.0 ============================== Persistence (Dec 2025) __________-4.4 _-5.3 _-4.4 ____-3.5 _+1.7 _+4.0 ___ +11.1 _ +7.4 _ +3.2 ================= Highest and lowest forecasts (excluding persistence) are color coded; Normal is lowest for IAH and tied lowest for SEA.

hoping all of SNE can pick up something

Down to 13F so far, forecasted low of 13F so how low do we go?

Ok enough Hoffman chatter.

apparently a snowy owl was spotted by Haines Point, so a bunch of folks were over there.

Got a nother dusting of snow this evening. Currently mostly cloudy. 19.4°

Rain

Mixed south?

What's the total snowfall because I want to compare it to Pivotal.

You missed out on the politics thread, eh?

AIFS has like 5 snow events rt 2 north.. no true cutters through day 15

Monthly outcomes are the result of climate change, synoptic patterns and, in the major cities, urban heat island effect. Monthly outcomes are useful for illustrating how synoptic patterns translate in a warming climate. Flagstaff, Phoenix, Tucson, and Yuma have all seen a disproportionate share of their top 10 warmest years since 2000, 2010, and 2020. This skewing of results speaks strongly, but not entirely, of how the region's climate has changed. Similar skewing can be seen in the Arizona statewide data for warmest years and the Southwest regional data for the warmest years.