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It's still ideal for us tho...still snow at 15z

Surface verbatim starts as all snow NC/VA bordering counties north at 60.

Yeah I think snow is a guarantee at this point.

Most people can't handle too much information too fast. We suffer from too much too fast and we scream when we're disappointed. I remember a time very well when the internet did not exist. Most folks were happier back in those days.

Yeah, they aren't sure what the fuck to go with for now, so a little bit of everything with ambiguous wording. Understandable given the disparity at this juncture. Overrunning precipitation develops on a developing warm front out ahead of the surface low Saturday night. With temperatures mainly in the teens, any precipitation that develops will be snow and snow accumulations will occur quickly. With snow ratios from 15-20:1, can expect a quick 1 to 3 inches over northern zones, 3 to 6 inches from around Philadelphia, through southern New Jersey, and into northern Delmarva, and 5 to 7 inches across southern Delmarva. What will need to be watched is if snow ratios lower late at night across southern Delmarva as warmer air lifts to the north. From there, snow continues to ramp up throughout the day Sunday. 12Z models have continued to trend to the north, and as a result, more in the way of warmer air will spread into the region aloft. The 12Z/22 ECMWF looks to be centered over the Delmarva Peninsula by Sunday evening, while the 12Z/22 GFS has the center of the low some 50-100 miles southeast of the ECMWF. The 12Z NAM now goes out until 00Z Monday and splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS. The 12Z/22 CMC is even a bit more to the northeast than the ECMWF. Ultimately, this results in a warmer solution, and can expect a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain well into southeast Pennsylvania, mainly along the I-95 corridor, and northern New Jersey, while rain and snow will develop along the New Jersey coast and southern Delaware. For the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, precipitation remains all snow. Cannot rule out a period of plain rain for portions of the southeast New Jersey coast and southern Delaware coast. This wintry mix continues through Sunday evening before changing back to all snow late Sunday night. Snow then continues into Monday morning before ending. Overall, snow accumulations look to be on the order of 12 to 15 inches for the majority of the area, with slightly less in southern Delmarva.

18z gfs is a lot flatter

Southern crew likes. Northern crew not going to be happy thus far.

Looks great to me

Especially the folks in the south. They were expecting a historic snowstorm on Monday. Now a lot of them are getting straight up rain.

Getting goods from 9 to 12z still

GFS drier

Seems drier overall to me...I could be wrong tho

I think both? Also has less 850mb winds from the south so far so it'll be colder too

Fosston, MN...not bad for 3pm local time. FOSSTON LGT SNOW -24 -36 51 NW21G33 30.36R WCI -54

GFS drier

GFS is definitely not buying the amped camp

I will say this though. After the week long hype about this. If it fails the non weather weenies will tune out for the rest of the winter. Which can be dangerous.

Arctic air is poised to return to the area tomorrow. A frigid weekend lies ahead. That will set the stage for the region's biggest snowstorm so far this winter and perhaps in a number of years. The temperature will likely stay below 20° in New York City and much of the region on Saturday. The last time that happened in New York City was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. Snow could arrive on Sunday. A significant snowfall is likely in and around the New York City area and surrounding region, even as a transition to sleet is likely. At present, it appears that New York City and its nearby suburbs are in line for 6"-12" of snow. Higher amounts are likely north and west of the City where ratios will be higher and mixing is less likely. There could be a few pockets of 12"-18" amounts in that region. Lesser amounts, probably in the 4"-8" range appear likely along the central Jersey Shore and across parts of Long Island. The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. There remains uncertainty and it may still be another day or two before the details can be pinned down with high confidence. Very cold air will return to the region as the storm departs. Highs will be in the 20s through at least midweek. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was -4.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.162 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.6° (3.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I spend a lot of time up there. Northern Adirondacks and Greens north of I-89 have been very snowy. CVT and SVT closer to average. The icon is a better model than the GFS. This isn't 1997. The world has caught up and surpassed us.

Coming in slower and drier, do not like the 18z trend at all

18z vs 12z. same time

Looks a bit slower toggling back and forth on WxBell. But like an hour or two. If you think it's drier you are probably also right

Outside of the ICON the differences in totals region wide are not very large regardless of who gets some sleet or not.