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I got .17 lol. I said that yesterday. It rained for 5 minutes. Me and Bob are not in the same location

A friend got a nice pic

This is the European monthly depiction of precip anomalies overlaid with temp anomalies for the month of Feb. Euro is my preferred solution because it doesn't have the zonked Modoki look that the CANSIPS and JMA do....that is overdone and crap. But the Euro simply evolves the El Nino in such a manner whereas the warmth gets pretty evenly distributed..pretty basinwide for winter. You drop those type of precip anomalies, I will gladly take my chances with a +1 temp anomaly at this latitude.

I do, but not during the summer....I consider that before the final write up....I go back and compare summer composites to find fits to the current year.

Fun fact by the way, there was a TS Bertha back in 2002 that also went into TX. That was also an EN summer, but it didn't have the weird or sheared setup as far as I remember, like this year's 2026 Bertha did.

Climate Reanalyzer has us currently warmer than any other august, ever ... Not sure what-how to reconcile these two products - I'll leave that y'all... but it looks like it confirms that idea about Aug. Not sure about 'all months' tho - this below looks like the current month is running along 2nd in that scope. As an aside, also defiant of the fact that all years are typically descending by now. zoink Fwiw, this product includes 1940 - 2026/present

Yea, same page...I think this is a good assessment. I initially didn't have time for a deep dive and just looked at the IRI, but I think the dynamical data has over adjusted and is too cooked...I'd go statistical suite. I usually kill it with ENSO forecasting, but being in uncharted territory like this makes it more difficult to pin down a specific range, despite obviously knowing it will be intense.

@GaWxI edited these down after really looking at it more...I have put most of my energy into the extra tropical Pacific of late. This is consisted with the max rate of growth observed form this point forward, which was in 1982.

I see the RNA related pattern S of the 45th and warm up others are eluding. It sets in for a week or so coming up, but I'd caution that the negative NAO mode is lingering over the western limb of the domain ... a bit of a wild card. Now, the NAO is not typically well-handled at this range. We've seen a lot of winter extended outlooks fail because what looked persistent in the ensembles and their derivatives sort of sneaked into something else while everyone was counting their winter dividends. Suddenly in the near term we're looking at an entirely different pattern implication while our spirit is still lubed up for the other idea... It's a heartache index - live by it, forlorn for it. Summer NAO handling in guidance is not better, that's for sure. This is sort of an opposite thing. Usually folks want for a -NAO. The present thread tenor seems people are ignoring it (or just not aware) in lieu of a rah-rah for one last gasp summer heat ( as an aside.. heat's fleeting of course - ) before we commit to a climate wake-up-call winter. LOL maybe, we'll see on the latter. anyway, proceed with caution -

go wash your truck

Low 58. DP 56.

My grandmother once live in a high rise condo in New Jersey with unobstructed views of NYC. Needless to say it was tough to sleep at night for a 12 year old with the lights of the city just through the bedroom window...lol

You should ... ... more often than not the ensuing season inherits the wind. Sometimes not so much, true. An autumn(spring) may flip the script and do so more profoundly, yup. But there is definitely often enough a leitmotif that is subtle but there if one looks; then it amplifies into better coherence as winter(summer) approaches. 'We started getting coastals in sep that year', lends to active Xmas. 'We started seeing se ridging in latter feb that year', lends to heat in May...etc

Low of 59. Splendid weather.

Question for @Eskimo Joe, would it be useful to use the Mesonet stations as proxies for soil temperatures/moistures to determine when its close to time to overseed lawns?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/08/24/ocean-just-broke-temperature-record-that-may-have-stood-millennia/

@Stormchaserchuck1How does this composite look now? I tweaked by subtracting the 1941-1970 climo period to wash out a lot of the lower heights and accentuate the positive anomalies in an effort to better capture the changing climate.

Believe me, take the +AO pattern now....good sign looking ahead IMO.

Lukey likey girth?

That is such a unique place. It's often colder there then some of my favorite places in the Adirondacks and Tug Hill region. Light jacket weather this morning. Epic

of course you do so very warm pattern and torch are the same, got it torchy 59/56 here rn

Low of 57

Correct. No torch as some had forecasted.