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Talk tomorrow have a good night

they have been ending earlier and eelier and starting it later and later I dunno what the in house model they use and what model they base it off of.

The model guidance is pretty close at this point, with some variations. NAM is a major outlier with a much more amped/warm system. Needs to be watched tomorrow to see if it's sniffing something real. I think 10-12 for DC (snow and sleet) is still what I think will happen. Tomorrow we'll be watching the energy cross the country, so it will be fun and interesting to see what happens.

yep. i totally screwed up. flip is at 16z-ish as you say. would be 8-10" -ish

Hahahaha when I hear similar stories about the second child, I say a little thanks for having just the one

What model is that?

Did you mean the GFS?

It's been a long week of tracking this thing and it's going to end up being half the storm I was hoping it would be. I'm just going to let things happen without having any expectations other than what's falling from the sky in the moment. Besides...we'll be in a winter wonderland in six days, so we've got that going for us!

Could be... Any way, I view that as a positive. The entire column stays below freezing all the way down to morgantown on that NAM - Even if it is showing up as a mix

the biggest issue with the GFS when it comes to these things is unfortuantely the thing thats going to be problematic... handling mid-level thermals is not its strong suit

Who is this guy?

ICON stuck at 156 , but players are all there

and because we know its pingers and not ZR, I personally dont really care. Its the ultimate pack densifier/retention agent. Especially with cold that is to follow. Just like my wife always tells me, I dont need too much...just enough. with that I say gnight.

Central Park doesn't get lower totals because of UHI effect. They just don't measure timely, properly, or with a trained professional that actual cares about proper protocol. It's that simple.

yea i told everyone to shave 4 inches off it and its still a good storm

Let’s do this! Tommy will have a goal this period, calling it now

Watch, the gfs at the last minute will blast the sleet line farther north than any other guidance. It would be typical of this model.

Let’s talk hockey! Caps with a great second period. We need a W badly!

I don't know if the map shows as sleet despite there being only a few pellets of sleet. Maybe programmed to show as sleet any time no matter how much it really is sleeping even if only a few pellets.

Bit of an off-the-wall question but is there a reason that the RGEM has that sort of pockmarked "globby" look in its snow field?

Ours knows how to do it, but she's so anti-confrontation that she backs down as soon as she thinks we might be annoyed at her. The little one, on the other hand, THRIVES on confrontation.

RGEM looks good, GFS seems to hold. I'd lean toss NAM for now, give it more weight if it holds its solution tomorrow.