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I have the most recent CFS RONI mean peak at near the 1982-3 record of +2.5 rather than +2.7: It is the monthly of Nov that peaks near +2.7, which is near the 1982-3 monthly peak of +2.69 (Jan peak): So, the most recent CFS has warmed to a 1982-3 redux in strength.

Average is generally low-mid 60's in early May

Well, Sunday looks ruined again. F

isn't that the average high for your area in the first half of May? I don't think we're much higher here...I'll take 70 and sun any day in May

If the new CFS has a clue, there may not be a big disconnect between the traditional ONI and the RONI. It has the RONI peaking at around +2.7C and the traditional ONI peaking at around +3.1C in the November/December time frame. If (IF) correct, it would set a new RONI record, which currently stands at +2.5C for the 1982-83 super El Niño

yeah i'd say this map from May - August is jackpot. Very comfortable.

53° feels like 65, given how many days we've had in the 40's this month

Officially in the hatched risk zones for tonight. We'll see what Dickson County gets out of all this. Should be a wild ride with little to no sleep! Also, it will be interesting to see what damage survey teams obtain in their assessments with so much of the mid-state plagued by severe drought post-ice storm. That's the sneaky fly in the ointment in all this. 50-60 mph winds may have more of a 60-70 mph effect.

Tor warning near Taylorville IL embedded in that very shrimpy looking bow in Central IL. Right on top of my friend over there. Said he hasn't even left the parking lot. He's going to head S/SW and get into the clearing out warm sector. Think that area is where the best potential for some explosive cap busters.

ASOS era, spring highest, 3hr rises for FIT

I agree that we are going to see big warming coming up with the massive DWKW that has just begun propagating east from the WPAC and the continued WWBs. Also, already seeing signs of a strong +IOD forming with the robust cooling around Australia. That’s going to constructively interfere with the ongoing Nino development/Bjerknes feedback

I wonder if the threat moves even further south based on where the current precipitation and outflow boundary is.

67° SKC

No offense but - seems like you ought to know such things if you're posting so much on the subject. It's hard not to be skeptical of the data you post otherwise. If it's just a general global singular heating trend - shouldn't we just cross 16C once or twice and be done with it, forever more above that level? (Aside from ENSO, which would cause us to cross that level a couple of times during the transition)

We agree that temps will very likely warm notably more rapidly due to this incoming likely strong El Niño as has occurred with past ones. But if a strong Nino in itself leads to a temporary more rapid warming, isn’t that consistent with this additional warming being due to a natural oscillation of the Pacific ocean rather than GW from AGW? Strong El Niños lead to more rapid jumps in global temps. That more rapid warming in itself is due to a natural oscillation, ENSO, bringing to the surface the even warmer water. Is this right?

Oh I thought you were back . I’d bet your Oaks are close. About 10-14 days early here this year. That week of 85-90 made all the difference

Yeah the palms are out where I am now.

pretty crazy...went from a chill with the heat kicking on a few hours ago to about ready to open windows

33 diurnal change before noon. That may be close to 3.5 hour record already.

Not sure why, but this sure hasn't felt like a historically warm month here in Ohio. It seems like the cooler than normal days have stood out more than the warmer than normal days. Maybe it's just my old a** getting less and less cold tolerant

There's an interesting techy aspect that Brian and I have monitored over the years having to do with machine/MOS numbers never seemingly able to catch up to the seasonal movement toward heat in springs. This effect doesn't appear to be as such in autumn when going colder. It has to do with MOS numbers being too low on days when the sun is very strong. MOS has a 'memory' so to speak. That memory is Climatology. It's complex though... MEX, for example, has small climate enhancing of the immediate day's values... which growns in weighting out in time. Such that D5 of that string has a ton. That is why when we look at D5 and it may say 80 for high temperature, when the climate on that day is say 60 ... that means you have a signal that must be extreme coming from the contributing model input. Because it is not only 20 points over the climate, the climate is supposed to be weighting the values from the metrically deduced numbers. That is why once in coon's age you get that 96 in April ... the MEX number on that day 5 might have been 20 points over. So MET and MAV being short term, in theory the climate weight is lower ...but it is not zero, either. It's hard to guess how much the MOS for D1 and D2 are being effected by climate weighting, but it could be the reason why these days will tend to be a degree or two colder than what actually takes place. It suspiciously seems like Climate Change might be part of the culprit. The other complication is how much so... I believe the climate in those MOS products are based on 30 year means. But those are not "running averages" ... so if the climate is improving steeply in 30 years and it is not running... and suppose the MOS day's climate weight is based up 27 year old means, then the weighting could be introducing larger error. As such ...I "think" the recent 30 year adjustment went in over the last 5 years...so we're at the earlier end, and we are definitely in a steep CC predicament. That said, the D1 and D2 are at the lower weighted end so makes the crushingly nerdy fetish of Asperger temperature watching like those idiots out there along the train track. It's a 4 line that runs 100 feet from my front door. They set up tripods and film freight trains going by. What the f is up with that! I think it's called 'train spotting' or ... ? who cares I don't care to look it up. I hate the f'n train. It's loud and disruptive. It vibrates the house on minutes after minutes worth of sometimes several times per day. They couple up and decouple half mile long screaching screaming steel on steel ending in something louder than lightning bolt 100 feet away bangs. 1.5 million metric tons of 'em, between 1 and 4 am. They've taken to parking long lines of shipping container cars, double stacked, that are holding garbage - literally garbage! And after they've sat parked under summer sun in 97 F heat ... stink of rotting vomit so vile as to challenge the very endurance of man ... they're doing a swell job at ruining life for myself, my neighbors.. the neighborhood. It's gotta be lowering property values... I mean Jesus H Christ - or lack thereof.. We've complained to the town, who's clearly getting a kick back form CGI ... otherwise we might apply for a Federal injunction of some kind. To me, it doesn't matter if the latter owns the rail. It's should be no different than house that puts on loud music on and disturbs the surrounding peace. That's not allowed!? why should corporate kuntitude be able to dump society's anal content 100 feet from our f'n front doors and walk away. So, along comes these train dweebles to appreciate fuckin' trains? Okay.

lush and green

Well we can't complain about the drought then complain about the rain, lol

I don't know. Recent heating seems to be overpowering any natural variability/oscillations. Obviously, not every year is warmer than the previous, but the change seems to be more pronounced over the past several years - and I would expect that trend to continue at least through next year with the likely strong El Nino.

April 27 2002: Heavy snow falls over the Twin Cities and central Minnesota. Chanhassen receives 6 inches, and vivid lightning is seen with the snow during the evening. 1996: Embarrass records a low of 9 degrees. Some central, and most northern, Minnesota lakes are still ice-covered. 1921: A late season blizzard hits Hibbing. The temperature was 75 degrees three days earlier. For Monday, April 27, 2026 1899 - A tornado struck Kirksville, MO, killing 34 persons and destroying 300 buildings. (David Ludlum) 1931 - The temperature at Pahala, located on the main island of Hawaii, soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1942 - A destructive tornado swept across Rogers County and Mayes County in Oklahoma. The tornado struck the town of Pryor killing 52 persons and causing two million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Forty-two cities in the western and south central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 87 degrees at Olympia WA was an April record, and highs of 92 degrees at Boise ID, 95 degrees at Monroe LA, and 96 degrees at Sacramento CA tied April records. (The National Weather Summary) More than 300 daily temperature records fell by the wayside during a two week long heat wave across thirty-four states in the southern and western U.S. Thirteen cities established records for the month of April. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1988 - Mount Washington NH reported seven feet of snow in ten days, pushing their snowfall total for the month past the previous record of 89.3 inches set in 1975. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas. Hail up to four and a half inches in diameter caused five million dollars damage around Omaha NE. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, and there were 160 other reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Severe thunderstorms spawned thirteen tornadoes in Texas and twelve in Louisiana. A tornado southwest of Coolidge TX injured eight persons and caused more than five million dollars damage. There were also eighty-five reports of large hail and damaging winds, with baseball size hail reported at Mexia TX and Shreveport LA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Forty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Records highs included 94 degrees at Charleston WV, 95 degrees at Baltimore MD and96 degrees at Richmond VA. (The National Weather Summary) 2011 - An estimated 305 tornados between the 27th and 28th sets a record for the largest outbreak ever recorded, including two EF-5s, four EF-4s and 21 EF-3s. Arkansas through Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, southern Tennessee, Virginia to Pennsylvania and New York were all affected. An estimated 300 died including 210 in Alabama alone. This brought the April total past 600, the most in any month in recorded US weather history.