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I'm curious to see the resulting snow results for BWI & NYC after those PNA spike years...but off the top of my head it seems only two ninos and 13-14 produced down this way. -ENSO was all below average.

Not sure what got into the 12z guidance, but vomit worthy today. Hope that changes.

Models not great for next week-warmer and wetter but wait 6 hrs it'll change. On a serious note we might have to wait until the 28th-29th for the pattern to fully set up

12z model cycle was not very winter-friendly. The good news is run-to-run consistency is basically non-existent beyond Day 5 it seems .

Why? Because one run of the GFS 240+ hours out said so?

Model chaos at its best lol. We do it every winter

Yup..it’s very close.

More patience dude it's going to take longer then that to clear out the massive West Coast troughing forcing ridging in the east

All this crying will be a memory by New Year's

At least we have a home address.

One little change here or there is like a 30F difference for us lol.

I told you guys we have to wait until the back half of January

Love seeing the snow cores making it into the AFD. .HYDROLOGY... Sharp rises on streams and rivers are anticipated on Friday into Friday night associated with warm temperatures, snow melt, and moderate rainfall. Rainfall of 0.50 to 1.25 is expected with snow melt adding another 0.75 to 1.25 inches into the river basins. Given dewpoints will be above freezing during the day today and tomorrow, efficient snow melt will be likely. Snow core analysis Tuesday near Mt Mansfield indicated at 3000 feet snow depths were 53 to 58 inches with 12 to 14 inches of water, while at 1550 feet snow depths were 22 to 30 inches with 5 to 7 inches of water. The rivers with greatest potential to reach action stage, given expected rainfall and snow melt are the Ausable, Mad, Winooski at Essex Junction, and Otter Creek at Center Rutland on Friday afternoon and evening. Crests on the Mad and Ausable Rivers will be Friday afternoon, and Otter Creek and the Winooski cresting closer to Friday evening/early Saturday morning. Lastly, while any river ice may move, the threat of ice jams remains low. 3,000ft High Road Plot… 1500ft Barnes Camp…

Actually you will learn your memories keep you alive.

We knew you’d be in as soon as you saw a negative comment…as regular as clockwork. Nowhere to be found when the talk was about tuesdays potential..but right there when Scott stokes the fire.

My neighbors are gonna love that I left my balcony furniture out and I won’t be back for another 10 days.

The GEFS really wants a storm over the central CONUS, destination unknown! Extremely evident even on just 6hr QPF at over 200 hours. So the storm is there, it just does not know where to go with it once it gets spun up!!

I still think there is room for something bigger in the 28th-31st time frame, but perhaps not in the classic sense of what you would want the pattern to look like. I think its been mentioned several times, but we easily could see something along the lines of a late bloomer. But what happens during this period will be a big influence on how we evolve moving through the start of January. If the blocking develops as advertised (I think this is what would help with bigger storm potential in the time frame mentioned) but this probably leads to an increased risk that we do undergo a period of above average warmth early in January as the southern ridging connects with the block. If the blocking doesn't materialize then maybe we just remain more zonal and probably more towards the cooler side of average but not particularly active.

Forever and always Looking to stoke the fire. Good thing it’s 7 days out, and it’s the Op.

Yeah, everyone’s 1.5” from the clipper will be long gone

I actually had a fairly vivid dream last night about a 6-10” snowfall. Weird hobby.

The 12z Euro takes the GDPS/CMC route, and quickly establishes influence by the NAO, but it quickly loses it. I think modeling at 12z is on the struggle bus(not abnormal) w/ the NAO. I have seen the NAO absolutely wreck what looked like very nice, consistent patterns. It is a bull in a China shop. There is a lot to like about this still frame. There is a lot to not like about what happens next! Haha. But we take this over a chinook any day of the week. By the end of the run, the Euro looked to resolidify the NAO and swing the big trough east. Almost all modeling is teasing sending that western trough eastward. It "could" be too quick, but some the CMC and Euro are about 3-7 days quicker depending on the run. IF the NAO block is legit, it is going to create more wild solutions like it did at 12z. If we can get any help from the Pac....then bigger things are on the table. spell check will be the death of me....

DT: ✳️ ALERT POSSIBLE NEW ENGLAND. NYC / NORTH NJ / LONG ISLAND SNOWSTORM appox DEC 30 ✳️ 1⃣ Be advised that this is a long way off folks! This possible scenario is based upon a extrapolation of a pattern shift which has NOT yet happened. KEY POINT -- a forecast or scenario based upon an extrapolation always has the high risk of being wrong--- even if you really really love snow and winter and cold. 2⃣ The Christmas Day and 12/26 pattern looks there mild for most of the country east of the Rockies and SOUTH of Interstate 70. BUT the Trough in SE Canada and an East based -NAO in Iceland is able to do enough to flatten the Ridge in the Plains and Midwest so that the extreme warmth across the southern states does not push north of I-70 on either Christmas day or on 12/26. 3⃣ There is good model agreement especially with the AI models and the European ensemble that the Iceland East based -NAO will continue to build or increase in size of power AND retrograde towards Greenland and Baffin Island by the end of DEC , 4⃣. This movement will cause a closed 500mb LOW to form in SE Canada which in turn lowers the heights over the Eastern US to allow another shortwave to drop towards the Middle Atlantic Coast 5⃣ IF this shortwave energy is real …IF… it could cause a significant surface LOW to form off the Mid-Atlantic coast and bring accumulating snow possibly significant snow to New England/ NYC/ Northern NJ and Long Island around 12/30/25 6⃣ The THIRD image is valid JAN 2: the strong Ridge over the Plains / Midwest has now been suppressed significantly as the block Greenland continues to Retrograde towards Labrador and Quebec. The problem is the Deep Trough in western Canada that extends down the West coast. This Trough is partially associated with the PV in Northwest Canada. 7⃣ IF we can get that deep Trough in western Canada and the PAC NW to weaken or slide eastward ….IF… the entire pattern would see a significant flip and set up a potentially stormy cold first half of JAN ▶️HOWEVER this is pure speculation as currently there is no sign of that actually happening. ◀️

Somewhere on my old computer I have the model snowfall images for i think it was Jan 2016. Was that the one that had the 70 inches at IAD?