All Activity

OTOH: The natural gas market, which is down sharply (6%) currently feels the prospects for a warmer pattern Dec 16th and beyond have increased. Check out the 0Z EPS HDD, which is on left chart, as it shows HDD plunging from mainly AN through 12/14 to BN 12/16-21 along with a trajectory suggesting more BN HDD (meaning warmer than normal E US). We’ll have to see whether or not this will finally verify well as models have been too warm for the last 3 weeks:

Come to papa. Gfs get on board please.

Snow / rain mix in Lewisville - 37

Noting the drought severity and coverage slowly growing east of the Divide. We're now in D2 (roughly between Cherry Creek and the South Platte, and south of Denver proper). The next couple weeks don't look to help that at all. https://www.drought.gov/states/colorado

NWS Blacksburg, VA

Just saw the dew points crash in northern Maryland. Wonder if this is the arctic front trying to press south and set up some better convergence? Perhaps the HRRR is trying to pick up on this down your way?

GFS has been rock solid for days. Will be interesting to see if it scores a mini coup for the fringe counties and we get 1-2” vs a dusting most other models have shown. Southern Va in for a great storm. What a start to winter they are having

bad patterns produce bad luck

Still seems like rain / snow mix near downtown Winston. Occasionally a heavy little burst of flakes

I see the rgem gives mostly snow but has the low further north while the gfs slides it further ESE. Atleast we got something to track.

1.25", moderate snow, northerly wind 10 - 20 mph, 25.1 degrees. It has fell 7 degrees since 7am.

Yep-there’s a reason why we always have “bad luck” or shortwaves interfering with storm setups and amplification. The flow is too zonal/fast so we have interference all the time from competing s/w and the ridge placement/amplification out west is always off-ridge is too flat or pushed out of place. Maybe one day we can get “lucky” even in this pattern and we won’t have to deal with all this interference, but to me it just seems very hostile to getting any larger snow system around the city than a small 1-2” type clipper like we had last December. Once the ridge out west amplifies, we can get some real blocking and the SE ridge stays muted we can talk about something bigger.

Statistical tidbit from 1990-91 through 2024-25: 14/15 (93%) of winters with above normal seasonal snowfall had a least one day with 8" or more snow (72% prior to 1990-91) 17/18 (94%) of winters with below normal seasonal snowfall did not have any 8" or above daily amounts (75% prior to 1990-91) 14/17 (82%) of winters with at least one day with 8" or above snowfall had above normal seasonal snowfall (63% prior to 1990-91) 2014-15 with 50.3" seasonal snowfall was the lone exception for seasons with above normal snowfall with a maximum daily amount of 7.5" since 1990-91. This data suggests that in the contemporary warmer climate, a big snowstorm has become relatively more important to seasonal snowfall outcomes than in the past. Both subsets are longer than 30 seasons in length suggesting that the difference provides some insight. Moreover, this is what would be expected in a warmer climate with somewhat fewer snowy days.

Finally sticking to Grass in Henrico.

You and your weenies. I must say, you are the most disrespectful individual on this board.

Related to this is the -PNA Dec to +PNA Jan transitions for -ENSO that have been happening during the last 40 year period. That transition has been strongest when the Dec -PNA was strongest. Examples of cold Jans were during these winters: 1983-4, 1984-5, 2008-9, 2010-1, 2013-4, and 2021-2 where Jan is cold though not always colder than Dec.

Snowing in Winston-Salem

12Z Icon has the Fri/Sat thing. Looks good for NOVA and north. Ninja'd

I miss my house up in Ashe County on days like today. I had good elevation in the area I was in and also cashed in being closer to VA sometimes. I might have to go land hunting soon and build another one.

Lol…she’s just a fool. But we laugh. Let’s get system in here, and join the party. Frieken cold out there today.

Icon hoped on board with Friday/Saturday

41 in Willow Springs on my Tempest. Latest HRRR looks better.

Traffic cams show it really coming down on I-64 northwest of Richmond, just past Gum Springs. As you get closer to Richmond, some flakes are starting to show on the cams in places like Short Pump.

Front has come through. Getting some strong N gusts. Temp has risen to nearly 40 though