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Maybe Saturday night or Sunday morning.

3.70” storm total, 6.60” for the month.

Right, so what is that post talking about? Looks cloudy and dry for the weekend

Tomorrow looks decent. May be tough to clear clouds but looks dry.

0Z UKMET has 2 ATL TSs: -it has a TS form in the MDR early next week that then moves WNW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.4N 20.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 12.9N 22.2W 1007 30 0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 13.7N 26.0W 1008 33 1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 13.1N 30.9W 1003 37 0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 34.7W 1002 36 1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 13.0N 38.3W 1002 36 0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.0N 42.6W 1005 38 ———— -It has a TS form in the subtropical region: 0Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 29.9N 58.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.08.2026 60 30.4N 59.0W 1015 25 0000UTC 24.08.2026 72 31.2N 59.5W 1015 28 1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 32.6N 60.2W 1013 33 0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.9N 59.6W 1012 30 1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 37.7N 58.5W 1007 36 0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 41.7N 55.6W 1003 44 1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 46.8N 50.7W 1000 43 0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 51.0N 42.4W 999 40 1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 53.5N 34.1W 996 33 0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 POST-TROPICAL

3.06” in Syosset & 2.70” in Muttontown for the storm.

The gradient set up around here with .35 and DIT was 1.03.

1.44" yesterday, 4.88 month to date.

+4 coming and they think they have a chance

Nothing . Tomorrow mainly dry except ENE

Is the widespread soaking rain tomorrow in the room with us? What’s showing that?

This storm is wicked. It looked like a spaceship arriving and then boom. Dark as night with the street lamps on. Absolutely dumping rn.

Low of 62 with 61 DP. Pretty good for the swamp lands.

I'm getting this vibe from these outlooks that they're more interested in the N Atlantic/index correlation than the PNA to this point in time. Not sure why that lean as both it and the +PNA are at least linearly-neg correlated. The 2009/2010 season tucked a short lived but potent warm ENSO into the tail end of 2009 into the first quarter of '10. That was a winter whence the NAO became so excessive it jammed all events into the SE/MA, while up this way in NE ended up with suppression depression In a neutral ENSO year, a +PNA correlates more negatively with NAO during JAN/FEB anyway. But 2010 perhaps "over" ideally situated that result. There may have been other hemispheric things gong on that constructively interfered and drove a synergistic wild hyper response with that look that season/year. It was nuts! That one "snowmaggedon" storm looked as though it was really a hybrid between any cyclone at all, together with a mass-restoring forced nodal trough pinned there by the coupled -NAO state. fascinating. I believe at least a handful of official seasonal snow totals down there exceeded climo at sites around SNE and NNE - but not sure of that. Still, getting to within reach of N climates, in principle, evinces the point. It was like their 2015. But ...as 2015 demos... +ENSOs don't always do that. That's why I think the other was a bit of a "positive bust". It may be worth considering though that it can happen once, it can happen again. Leaning more E Can/NW Atl block with that weird neg tube of heights tunneling underneath down stream like Will was mentioning.. heh. It sort of reminds me of 'too much of a good thing' and you guys taxing the love lorn to get even more euphoric reach-arounds. For now, I guess it being so early in the game ...best to just go with +volatility for having lower heights in the TV whilst blocking resides N in the means - should that prevail. I'll tell ya though ... this will be an interesting autumn in the guidance.

Yeah, same for the two tornadoes yesterday on the South Shore that began as waterspouts. Once the ocean gets warm enough later in the season, the South Shore becomes the focus. Earlier in the season the severe storms and flooding tend to focus closer to the North Shore. Very impressive Atlantic SST rise providing the fuel once the pattern becomes favorable for storms. 445 NOUS41 KOKX 210130 PNSOKX Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 930 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...Waterspouts in southern Queens and southern Nassau County... The National Weather Service New York, NY office along with emergency management partners are reviewing damage, ground truth, and radar data from two waterspouts that may have impacted portions of the eastern Rockaways and Atlantic Beach in southern Queens and Nassau counties. Both of these waterspouts appear to have come ashore between 6:30 and 7:00 PM on August 20, 2026. Based on radar data and videos/photos received, so far, the first waterspout appears to have been short-lived, coming onshore in the eastern Rockaways. No damage reports have come in, as of yet. Based on radar and videos/photos received, so far, the second waterspout appears to have come onshore in Atlantic Beach. We have received preliminary reports of damage from this and radar evidence shows it may have survived for longer after coming onshore. We will continue to gather more information and investigate reports of damage in more detail. We will come out with an official statement on Friday, with more details.

A+ morning!!! Crystal clear blue sky, Light breeze and 67! 64.2 for the low! More please!

Strong virga storm yesterday, tippy bucket measured a T.

Thank you!

We've tapped the brakes here on the subsurface (peaking in the short run around +10-11C) as the trades temporarily recovered a bit, but the recent very strong WWB plus a migration of the standing wave towards 160W over the next ~10d should put the pedal back to the metal. CFSv2 forecasts are just playing catch-up on fully integrating the effects of wind stress and should bottom out here in the next week or so before crawling back up.

My best friend arrived. in town from Maui yesterday. He just rode out Hurricane Lala only a few days ago . He was pretty amazed to see that kind of damage after not living in Pennsylvania for twenty years. It just so happens he was back in town fishing with me in august 2023 when the Maui fires broke out just a few miles from his gym and home . After all the excitement, my buddy from ended up hooking into and landing a 42lbs Flathead on a chatter, bait and 12lb test targeting bass while we had our other rods out for flatheads. We never thought the fish would end up being landed, but after nearly 26 minutes, and several long runs out into the river, we landed the big girl and his new personal best flathead. My other lifelong best friend was buried just a few days ago leaving behind 2 teenage daughters at the age of 48 do the secondary brain cancer. What a crazy up and down week It's been. Anyways, waiting on pictures from my buddy from our storm and fishing events yesterday. I thought I had more pictures to post today, but after looking through my gallery, it looks like I already posted all the best ones for the most part.

Wagons east for tomorrow. Might squeeze out a dry day. Sunday looking wetter

I was thinking same thing. .