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Right now, I'd say I'm fairly confident that DCA will get at least 1.1" of snow right now (assuming DCA doesn't do their normal measuring bullshit), making this December the snowiest since 2009!

LWX. Upped their amounts a lil..

I'll take my 2.5" so that Balt & NW folks get their warning snows.

i think that's a great call 2-4 inches and you know what if we get that we should be happy with it. especially with what we got in the last 5 years!

Let's just not pull an FSU with a wide-right miss! I still remember being there as a grad student for the first "wide right" vs. Miami in 1991 (FSU was ranked #1 and Miami #2 at that time)...ugh!!

18z NAM

I think NG prices move mostly on 2-3 week outlooks, but have no idea past 3 weeks. If the 4th week is going to be cold, and that 4th week rolls forward into week 3, NG prices will jump just the same.

Type up a power point presentation about the pdo and sit them down and and explain. Haha

We knew that the 12z NAM was likely overdone. 18z NAM looks fine ... a 2 to 4 inch snowfall is what we're looking for from this type of system.

Blah, the ending is where you really notice. Shifted way SE, not even close

I just want enough for my kids to be able to go sledding or build a snowman. They're starting to ask every day when it's going to snow.

Indeed. Hope it keeps dropping south in line with the GFS/UK/Euro tho just for cushion. IJS

Northern maryland’s turn for once!? .

I was going to say - A move from $5.50 to $4.22 in a few days is extreme! It's a good time to assess the situation: What major has happened/changed in this time that could be effecting not only the next few weeks, but the whole Winter? And later in the Winter - as March 2026 has dropped from $4.25 to $3.57? I've seen the models shift warm, which NG changes led by a few days, but I don't have an answer as to the greater picture right now. I know we are going into some more extreme +NAO in the next little bit of time, which effects Europe too. 480sdm low south of Greenland Hrs 120-144. Maybe it's a persistency thought.

Today’s Euro Weeklies for 12/22-1/18 are even slightly uglier than yesterday’s ugly maps with a strong -PNA bringing warmer than normal for each week’s average for most of the US with the strongest warmth from the lower Midwest through the C/S Plains to the SW US, where it torches for part of the time in late Dec and early Jan. The E US is still clearly warmer than normal but like yesterday no torch dominates there. Hopefully, these maps fail miserably but I hate seeing them. But in case they were to not fail and before y’all jump off of a cliff, there is some good news for the first run with the new week (1/19-25): it transitions toward a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. Maybe, this is a sign of better things to come by mid to late Jan? For 1/19-25: N America H5 Global H5: N America 2m temps: ahhhh with much colder than prior maps!

I know people always comment on who posts and what to expect, but the biggest indicators is who isn’t posting. Scooter hasn’t chimed in wt all. Tells you all you need to know about this “threat”

I’d sign for this so fast.

NAM back to a graze. 2” on the beaches maybe and then a coating up by the pike

The 12z CFSv2 also lends some support to the "jail break" cold pattern potential just after Christmas.

nam doesn't look good

Well that would be cathartic! Sounds like we have our goalposts...now we wait, lol

Noticable shift ESE with the PV on the 18z NAM. Looks more suppressive. Bummer... was really hoping to get lucky with this one and keep trending it. Although it shouldn't be surprising that the outlier solutions shift towards model consensus.

18z NAM is more south and has similar QPF as 12z. Drops 6" just NW of Baltimore.

We all just got Nam'd!!!