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still time for this to trend north! i've seen this happen back in the day after a super bowl i forget the year NAM picked it up we got 8 inches in central park. Picked it up Friday, snowed monday

Operational 12Z GFS and ECMWF came a bit north with the low track, but ensembles still support a low track well south of the area Sunday night into Monday with a low chance for a light accumulating snowfall. Best chance at this time will continue to be across the NYC/NJ metro and Long Island. Right now, have no snow accumulation across the area. However, a reasonable worst case at this time would be an inch or two at the coast and less than an inch inland. Models never phase the two streams for a more amplified system. On occasion, there has been some subtle north/south adjustments. Temperatures during this time are just below normal with highs in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the upper teens inland to the 20s at the coast.

The winter of 1981-82 was legendary in many parts of the Midwest. I had just moved to the Chicago suburbs at age 7, so unfortunately I don't remember it. It's probably the benchmark winter for MSP. 3"+ of snow cover for 130 consecutive days, from 11/19 through 3/28. Dec had a -5F departure from current normals. Jan was a -14F departure, including 7 mins in the -20s. Feb had a -5F departure, and Mar -4F. Record depth 38" on Jan 23rd after back-to-back 17" snowstorms. Strangely enough, November was very mild until the 19th, then the bottom fell out and the fun began. Also, Chicago hit -26F on 1/10, 2nd coldest on record, and also hit -25F on 1/16 and -23F on 1/17. I think the -40C H85 isotherm showed up in the lower 48 that January, which is incredibly rare. INL hit -45F on 1/17, and had an average daily low temp of -23F in Jan 1982. That's unbelievable. Fun times...

Bold! I like it.

Still ~4 inch snow cover at Washington Sq Park.

I’ve given it a couple days but I do believe this Sunday storm possibility is pretty much cooked for us. The streams look to stay separate and this southern stream wave looks to shoot straight out under us. Still a possibility precip gets into the southern tier below the turnpike, as the op Euro and GFS still suggest but other guidance doesn’t get anything into PA. Some EPS support for the Euro op with measureable snow into PA while the NBM has virtually no swath of snow now.. as GEFS, Canadian ensemble and short term guidance like the NAM et al don’t get precip into PA. AI Euro an outlier showing a more substantial snowfall in the Sus Valley and warning amounts in Philly/NJ. Overall, it’s something I’d put at like 20-30% for a chance of a period of lighter snow in places like Gettysburg-York-Lancaster. Other issue in the event we get precip into southern PA could be temps. They look to top out near 40 Sunday and then likely only cool to around freezing during the timeframe of any impacts of the storm. P-type should be snow as I think the column would cool enough but I think surface temps would make any impacts (roads, non snow surfaces) minor.

Damn if I knew they served that... Can you order that delivery?

Child I just stated it. I’m in full agreement that 0-11” forecast will be confirmed

The water company was out working on my street today. The guys were wearing heavy jackets and hoods. I felt like letting them know winter was over and they could take that stuff off.

I haven't gotten a bad meal there, and I get a variety of snow from the breakfast special, steak, and salads. Only got seafood a few times, haddock and cod, I think, but it's probably not a specialty but still not bad.

I don't think anyone posted this yet - the 12z ECMWF AI QPF map is kinda wild.....

Let’s keep that little cold pool above NE as long as we can. It’s been pretty resilient

Here are the 06z and 12z runs of the EPS-AI.

I would be REALLY interested to see what you would rate the winter here in Detroit. It SCREAMS Beavis winter. Outside of those 2 gross weeks (Christmas week and 2nd week of Jan) it has literally been Beavis winter to a TEE since late November. Not only has the cold and snowcover been consistent, but the snowcover was always looking fresh and clean (just now got a bit dirty after Tuesday). It was also colder in Detroit than Chicago. Not saying this in a bragging way, just because its really rare to get such a beavis winter. Ever since you explained SDDs Ive followed them closely. Chicagos annual avg since 1949 for SDDs is 176. So far this season they are at 117. Detroits annual avg for SDDs since 1949 is 183, and so far they are already at 289. So, Detroit has seen 36.3" of snow to Chicagos 32.1", yet Detroit has had 172 (and counting) more SDDs than Chicago.

Can we get the seasonal trend here? Or do waves only trend south when we need them them to trend north??? Asking for a friend.

Some of you spent so much time complaining that our Jan storm was ruined by sleet that mother nature was just like.....F you ungrateful aholes....no more snow.

Welcome to ene

does anyone have the euro ai ensembles clowmap

And if it does happen, it's good that it would be happening at night when it's cold enough to get a little accumulating snow.

We had 43" depth on Feb 29, 2008 with 10-14" forecast ("Manitoba Mauler") for March 1; I figured 50+ was in the bag. Got only 6" which pushed the pack to 48", tops for that season, and there was still 35" on 3/31. Somewhere (not in the spreadsheet) I have a core measurement from March 2008, probably 13-14" as we totaled 142.3" and most of the snow had meat. DJFM precip totaled 22" and we had no extended thaws, just the one-day torch on Jan 8. Took a core earlier this afternoon, 20" pack held 3.86". We probably had about 2" SWE in year end's 8" pack and we've had 2.59" since then (includes 0.54" from 2 modest Jan RA). Factor in some sublimation and almost 4" seems appropriate.

We say this every time then expect next time models will be better.

We knew

What do you recommend at starlight diner?

Can’t believe the Euro baited and trolled us this entire time. Lol