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plenty of posts from northern New England at 12z yesterday congrats and high-fives over Friday/saturday storm. To be fair to everyone here, it is a holiday week, and the event has shifted so far south in rapid order that some runs are now whiffs. If that press continues to come in stronger it will be congrats Mid Atlantic. However, isn’t the old saying these bump north in the final 48?

It was not

I know it’s all fantasy but I think the 6z GFS was about to give us a new years present if it had run about an extra 36 hours.

If the cold air mass for Dec 28-Jan 1 verifies, ensembles across the board missed that cold air mass outside of day 7. To me it looks like another one is right after that(roughly Jan 6-7). As John noted, the late December cold snap looks like a dry frontal passage. I would guess higher elevations probably see some upslope if the CMC is correct. It would make sense that the atmosphere would wring out some moisture. One thing in weather, we are rarely going to get perfect placement of every feature on the map. What we want is the feature(which is in our favor) to be the driver. Outside of climatology Jan10-Feb10, it really doesn't want to snow at lower elevations in the Upper South. The base pattern is rain. So, we generally need a little bit of help outside of that window. As is, the pattern in the weeks 2-4 is likely going to have some cold shots, and some warmups. Timing and intensity of any longterm cold snap when/if it returns is TBD. That is why we are tracking what happens after the cold shot to end this year and begin the new one. My guess...models are handling the NAO poorly (duration, intensity, placement). That has occurred more times than I can count. As LC noted, it makes it difficult for models and forecasters to get a handle on things. That is creating wild swings in modeling. It does make sense that at some point, things line-up just enough to send a lot of cold air into the east at some point during January. But really, that is a pretty easy call - it is our coldest month! LOL.

I wake up every night for a bathroom trip. Keep the Euro loaded on the phone. Quick check then back to sleep.

Negative

It's also into the holiday break period now, too....so folks may not be up at 6am.

Was probably Tbliz lol

WPC issued for 12Z for the 26th

06z GFS

If the trends from 0z & 6z on the Euro & GFS continue today, the forecasts for Friday will be changing rapidly. The 6z GFS has a snowstorm for southern PA & the 6z Euro shows an ice storm chance. The High is in a great spot, so let’s see how the trends go today.

I don’t think the models will know until the storm hits the coast and gets sampled better. Tomorrows NAM will be the first to show at 84hrs. Until then we just won’t know. Unless we see more birds flying north. But not northeast. That’s bad. If we see wooly caterpillars flying north that’s REALLY bad

With Friday's 1.7" of snow, GRR has passed 1905-1906 ending any talk of futility before winter officially started. While this last week has been a dud it has been a pretty good start to winter so far and looking forward to hopefully much more snow to come this winter.

No disappointment here, just a super busy time of year with the holidays!

This is a great GIF! Note that this major evolution of the EPS over this one week period of runs has occurred with the Aleutian ridge not budging but at the same time the -NAO gets stronger and forces the rise of the PNA/big colder E US change from the NE! EPS NAO for late month as of one week ago: ~-1 EPS NAO for late month as of today: ~-2.5

1 inch of snow on the ground on 12/25.

Figured

That’s what the meltdown was about

Just wait til 12z is congrats DC to Philly Friday and Monday .. they will all come back to bitch..

PA Weather Plus, LLC ** LATE - WEEK POTENTIAL WINTER STORM ** Before I post today's blog post with the winter system expected tonight - Tuesday morning, I want to bring attention to the end of the week storm system, as there hasn't been a lot of talk about it. What originally looked to be a warm and dry Christmas and post-Christmas period, we are now watching the risk for a potentially more significant winter/ice storm to impact Pennsylvania. Right now, the coldest air is favored to be across central and eastern Pennsylvania, favoring either significant icing or snowfall. The CMC scenario currently remains the tamest, but still brings icing to northeastern Pennsylvania. I will continue to watch trends and bring you the latest updates throughout the week -stay tuned!

Yeah, just wouldn't be surprised to see changes happen a couple or few days before the 15th is all I'm saying. Nothing crazy. That is a good point about the vortex too. Absolutely.

The issues began when the NWS left NYC back in 1993. The trees over grew the site and the temperatures started running cooler than the other stations. Then the snowfall began to regularly get under measured. This is why I have been leaning more on using EWR and LGA for snow and temperatures. There was some interest from the media over 20 years ago on the topic. More recently there was a crew that measured about 1” more last week and Sam Champion measured about 1” higher with another event in recent years. I calculated that if the trees didn’t over grow the site, that NYC would have closer to 28 to 29 days reaching 90° each year on average since 2010 instead of the reported 17 to 18 days. The under measurement for snowfall isn’t as great as the temperatures. The NYC snowfall average last 7 seasons is only -1.1” under LGA and -2.4” below Newark. So anyone using NYC for temperature and snowfall contests should consider switching to LGA and EWR. Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV (New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy. Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the equipment buried in Central Park. Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of Central Park. But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is in the shade instead of direct sunlight. Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with false information." The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top. There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way. But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet of the station. Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with visibility sensors." [NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence in the park. He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park than at the airports. Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of the vegetation." Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says its a city that deserves better. Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they deserve the best weather station money can buy." Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

That’s what I said to the melters

GEFS AI 1 pm Friday is 38 degrees.

24.4° - got a bit lower than I had anticipated