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Let’s dry up the well!

Decent small drop rains. Shoukd get a drink today.

Or getting "only" 18" of "white rain" in Weymouth instead of the 24" fcst?!

Swing and miss lol. It took some luck to miss every single storm for the past 4 days. That was impressive. Hopefully this week continues to stay dry. I've got jobs to do.

....we'll play a bit of catch up today BUT it is the equivalent of being down 56-0 at the half ....with the final score being 70-14..

RAOBs (wx balloons) missing is a weak argument these days. Ppl need to get out of the legacy mindsets and get w/ the times. RAOBs are not as super critical as they once where. You have so many other sounding-type data available now, both in situ and remote, like ACARS data from aircraft and NUCAPS soundings several times a day over the CONUS alone from the VIIRS polar orbiters. And we have GOES imagery that updates for the CONUS every 5 min and 4 mesoscale sectors that update every min. Also, a full disk sector every 10 min. Prior to 2016, it was only every 15 min for the CONUS and only once every 3 hr for a full disk. The sampling of the atmosphere over the CONUS and the GOES footprint is way higher now than 10 years ago, both in spatial and temporal restitution! When the next generation GOES-E and W satellites went into operation in 2016 and 2017, respectively, the number of GOES channels went from 5 to 16. It all goes well beyond the basic IR, VIS, and WV channels now to get a significantly better picture of the atmosphere. 85% of all model data globally comes from various types of polar orbiter satellites, and they measure/sample a lot more than just clouds. And those "missing" RAOBs site you see at 12z, almost all of them are taken at 18z instead. Yes, not ideal, but we do run 18z models now, so they are not going to "waste." Who's to say 18z model runs for the CONUS are not somewhat better now at the expense of the 12z? It may be a wash or so little difference, it does not matter. I am not saying RAOBs are not still valuable, they are, but some ppl can't resist drama, stirring the pot, and complaining for clicks/like/attention, among other things, these days and sometimes are disingenuous, as in knowing what I said above about other sources than RAOBs, but leaving it out for "engagement/rage bait."

Pouring now.

The streak continues. Just ask the knicks.

We have had some good rain this morning so maybe l spoke too soon lm only expecting an inch or a little more

4.41” yesterday

Yeah, this is the first time that a more La Niña-like -PDO pattern is overlapping with such a strong El Niño during the summer leading to so much volatility. Click the top right arrow below.

I’m so tired of these failed rain events. It’s so dry around here

High of 87 yesterday. 0.31” of overnight rain from a decaying line of storms.

I can't say that there is a single cause. Stochastic variability, the rapid rise of the ongoing strong El Niño, and myriad marine heatwaves are all affecting the patterns and pattern evolution.

A much needed soaking rainstorm here just east of HVN. This was officially my wettest 6 day period since moving up here. Now at 4.84 for July. This is the highest precipitation month here since October 2025. Maximum 6-Day Total Precipitation for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT since 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 4.91 2021-07-06 through 2021-07-11 0 2 4.84 2026-07-01 through 2026-07-06 0 Monthly Total Precipitation for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 1.50 1.19 4.87 1.67 3.17 1.96 4.84 M M M M M 19.20 2025 0.73 2.77 3.73 2.53 5.28 1.39 2.55 1.05 3.25 5.39 1.57 2.45 32.69 2024 5.39 1.33 9.48 3.16 4.54 3.41 4.33 6.03 1.16 0.32 2.71 4.80 46.66

This has been an absolutely bizarre stretch. A few days of well above normal temperatures followed by severe storms followed by well below normal temperatures before moderating back to normal. Rinse and repeat.

Up to about 0.7”

Do you know what is causing the wild temperature swings this spring and summer? This is like the 5th month in a row, dating back to March, where we have set a new temperature swing record.

Drizzle, cloudy “spring” morning. .

0.47. A far cry from what most models were showing. There were a ton of red flags with this, which, unsurprisingly, ended up panning out. We knew

The PDO continues to operate independently of El Nino. The more Niña-like pattern which resulted in record heat in the East caused the PDO to fall and the AMO to rise. This is a result of the strong mid-latitude ridges warming the ocean surface below. The Atlantic City, NJ with the airport on the edge of the Pine Barrens just tied its all-time highest temperature. Most other years above 100° were La Ninas like 2011 or weaker El Niños or more neutral years. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1943-08-01 to 2026-07-06 1 106.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 106.0 1969-06-28 through 1969-06-28 2 105.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 105.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 105.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 4 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 5 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-09 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 102.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 6 101.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 101.0 2007-08-08 through 2007-08-08 - 101.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 7 100.0 2019-07-21 through 2019-07-21 - 100.0 2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07 - 100.0 2011-07-24 through 2011-07-24

0.64” overnight 1.31” last 3 days

The four-day interval between Central Park's high of 100° on July 2 and its high of 69° yesterday is the shortest on record between a high of 100° or above and a high in the 60s. The old record of 10 days was set from July 3-13, 1898 and tied during August 1-11, 1933. Records go back to 1869.