All Activity

0z NAM is pushing the energy further west at 57hr vs 18z NAM at 63hr fwiw

Quick 0.1" from that burst of snow that moved through. Maybe someday I'll get something that actually is up the ruler a ways

MJO starts moving into favorable positions by then too.

It's all about the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern. There are strong patterns in certain places in the hemisphere when DC/Baltimore gets >7" snowstorms. When the pattern is cold, with room to spare, long range threats/patterns are worth following. We have -AO tendency this Winter, December was colder than average in the Northeast and we are probably colder than average in the 2nd half of January. I've been pretty bullish on the Winter pattern general, although the STJ is really dry. The last few days of January has potential, imo. And maybe early February. ENSO subsurface Kelvin wave is occurring, and that historically correlates with more +PNA in the north pacific. Give us -AO running south into a ridge over Greenland, with a 50/50 low under it, and the pattern looks suddenly favorable. Unfortunately it's 15 days out, but it does have support with things actually occurring, like in ENSO, and Winter -AO tendency from -SLP 60-90N this past warm season (correlation good since 2012).

You remember that?. Are you Mitch’s father?.

I guess if theirs anything that looks more certain to talk about is there's no sign of any warm ups after the next couple days... Very Cold weather coming it seems.

Climo in the metros will very likely be in the single digits.

we need more \ and less / Earlier, there were comments about ULL capture of a surface low. FWIW, I recall that happening with the Janury 20, 1978 nor'easter.

Not as much as it would otherwise if the ridge doesn't cooperate. Still nuisance amounts.

This guy is smart. Good thing he’s all in on Jan 23-25.

It'll be set in stone in about 14 hours.

You make very good points and I do take back my stance on that. At the end of the day, if I’m overwhelmed by the emotion, I have the option to not partake, or just mute certain accounts. I appreciate the discussion!

Who hacked your account Chuck?.

So it’s set in stone, it can’t change?.

A closed ULL that deep will develop a LP in its NE quadrant. Inflow off the ocean wlll provide seeder feeder. Closed in this situation absolutely matters

Nothing comes easy in the 2020s. That's my default as a result until proven otherwise on a consistent basis. Not sweating this at all yet. (I'm still in CT so it's not like I'm saying this from on high).

Good to see you around. Maybe we can mess around and score one before winter is out.

If climate change keeps accelerating, DC winters will start to look like winters in Columbia, SC. IMO we might have one more snowy period when the next +PDO phase occurs—just because of the warmer waters (and hence increased precip) it'll probably break tons of records, maybe there'll be a 3' historic blizzard. Afterwards, though, around ~2040, I dunno, man.

I have a tough time seeing how the Euro ended so differently than 12z and 6z. It seems like it suddenly turned the 500mb energy east this run instead of digging it southwest. Look at the lead vortex over the Michigan UP instead of Wisconsin like 6z and 12z. This means it doesnt lower heights to the south of the second wave, possibly causing it to turn east also.

Lake won't be frozen over by then? I'm interested if my work and kids schedule don't interfere.

Yup, I forgot it’s all over & already failed, lol… Panic room is one thread over there…

As well as it did for the Eagles

Liking the lake effect potential locally next weekend.

I wonder how it will work out for them…

You don’t have to rub it in, we already down and hurtin lol