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This is a time sensitive ENSO subsurface map and 5-day trend. It will always be updated to the last day.

I made a thread

The subsurface has warmed significantly over the past few months. That's +5c in the central-ENSO-subsurface. TAO/Triton is a little more conservative in their readings than CPC, and it still has a >+4c area in the western subsurface I went through, since data became available in 1985, and found the 10 top analogs to broad subsurface state in January-February, like we have now. There are 5 positive analogs, 5 negative analogs. It should be noted that a lot of analogs had a warm/cold western part vs a cold/warm eastern part, in contrast, and I didn't use those, I only did the whole subsurface based warm or cold. Jan-Feb 2026 so far -1) 2025 -- This later in the year was ENSO Neutral (0-1-0), with the ONI peaking at -0.5c, but not for 5 consecutive months. The RONI in 26-27 was Weak-La Nina, -1.0c +1) 2023 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (1-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.1c, RONI peaking at +1.5c +2) 2015 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (2-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.8c! RONI peaking at +2.4c +3) 2014 -- This later was a Weak El Nino (3-1-0), ONI peaking at +0.8c, RONI peaking at +0.6c -2) 2007 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (4-1-0), ONI peaking at -1.6c. RONI peaking at -1.6c +4) 2002 -- This later was a Moderate El Nino (5-1-0), ONI peaking at +1.3c. RONI peaking at +1.5c -3) 1999 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (6-1-0), ONI peaking at -1.7c. RONI peaking at -1.7c +5) 1998 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (7-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.4c. RONI peaking at +2.4c -4) 1994 -- This later was a Moderate El Nino (7-1-1), ONI peaking at +1.1c. RONI peaking at +1.4c -5) 1988 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (8-1-1), ONI peaking at -1.8c. RONI peaking at -1.9c So out of the hand-picked 10 best analogs of the past 40 years, 8/10 (80%) became the same ENSO state (warm subsurface to El Nino, cold subsurface to La Nina), 1/10 (10%) was Neutral the next year, and 1/10 (10%) was opposite. The total cumulative ONI peak for the 10 top analogs since 1985, was +13.9c, an average of +1.39c per year (Moderate ENSO state). CPC in January gave these probabilities I now see the RONI is linked on the CPC page. Very good! (Edited analogs above -- the RONI is good because it neutralized the global warming skew, where ENSO has warmed about 0.2-0.3c vs historical) Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) Mid January IRI models forecast. I will edit these if someone links more recent forecasts.

Subsurface is torching. Should I start an El Nino thread for 26-27? What say you guys, is someone else nominated thread starter?

This thread has gone completely to hell and back folks. We could at least track severe weather.

You'll be relieved to learn that one person (at least) understood the point you were making -- the most extreme portion of winter is now past, like on August 10th the most extreme part of summer is done. But nearly similar records can still be hit. (he wasn't trying to say the sun angle on Feb 10th = sun abgle on Aug 10th).

EPS and EPS-AI also shifted south and east, unfortunately. Still time for changes obviously, but not looking great at the moment.

Oddly enough, Round 2 of this debate has been technically on topic though page consuming, lol

So clearly this is the banter thread now right? Cause scrolling through page after page of this noise to find like 2 posts about model runs is just, well, a joyous way to spend the day

Fascinating stuff. You should head on over to the Tennessee Valley forum and update them immediately on this big news.

Which one will come closest ? IMO the Canadian is the most reasonable as of tonight....

It started at 1:12:29 with a foul and one badass push........What an E-P-I-C Brawl !!! DAMN I ADORE THIS STUFF WITH ALL MY HEART!!!!!!!

It was 71F in Nashville today. The next few days may bust a little bit warmer, although snowcover may keep it cooler.

Huh...OP Euro actually looking like it's AI counterpart. Completely suppressed this run!

I'd hate to hang my hat on the Ukie, especially now since the Euro went east like the GFS.

Snow is pouring down at Mammoth. It's starting. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam We hit 86 today in Buda. Texas is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY above normal. Normal high is 60. We shall enjoy an EARLY SPRING! Sierras will go 2023 redux. After a time the lights on the Woolly Lot were switched off but you can see snow falling heavily at the Village Level https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village Village Level has 2 inches of fresh snow, but you can clearly see that Woolly Lot has 3-4 inches of new snow. More is on the way overnight on into Tuesday. Next weekend the Sierras are going to get completely destroyed by a huge snowstorm.

Nice? Maaaaan ain't nobody but the heat misers want that right now, lol But a pronounced SER would fit nina clomo though...

It's Chuck. It has nothing to do with how well you articulate something. It's like getting frustrated because the moose isn't putting together the IKEA cabinet you wrote the instructions for. No matter how clear you make em, it's still a moose and it's still just gonna keep doing moosey things.

Yeah it's the GFS, but Here's later that day.. probably a little extreme but it shows that there is some potential for a nice warm up. Sounding says DCA is 75F.

16.8 currently. Colder than expected

Now that would be the star of winter 26

what a weenie Ukmet solution.. wasn’t even done yet lol

I think GFS will stubbornly move towards the other modeling tomorrow.

Icon Euro Ukmet. Foreign vs US we know who wins.

Just looking as all aspects tells me to go 4 to 6 for him. Wait until we challenge each other for the big dog coming. He can weenie all he wants