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February DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.6 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 -0.5 +0.3 +0.6 +2.1 -0.2

Moisture is banking up along the border now especially the northern mountains.

It's Holly Sprigs!

From the updated AFD at 1:53. Working off the 06 runs as stated.

Is there a way to remove the right-hand sidebar so the posts fill the entire page?

Low to pushing mid 40's along Main Avenue in Erwin. I think temps collapse nicely this evening, but I wasn't expecting to see 40 at all. Thought the cloud deck would move over and hold us to the mid 30s

And they're supposed to see some snow showers or flurries lol.

Dropped a degree to 35 at downtown island airport

The 1025 high on top of us is typically not a suppressor so there must be other elements in play to carry the storm ene and miss us?

Oops that’s Apex, not Spex. Don’t think I like Brad P., jk

Super frustrating they rely on the NBM so much, especially when the EURO has been so consistent for days .

It has been consistent !

Next Friday has my interest. Its a week away but all models amd ensembles have some sort of clipper type system ahead of more cold.

Yeah I checked last night and I think this is up a few inches. I think it is more starting to line up with RAH maps earlier for total snow depth. Secondly...I have been in North Carolina a long time...but I'm not sure where "Holly Swings, NC" is...LOL

Where? Tampa Florida?

35/36 in Halls/Ft City .

Yeah. It was on the Gfs and I posted on it in a response to Stormtracker.

GSP lowered totals a bit, I do think they are playing catch up a little with the lower overnight trends vs the higher trends today. I expect them to bump it back up later.

Yep those are increases from the 2"-4"s they had earlier

Never came out in Halls/Ft City either .

Snow growth regions, especially in the south, tend to be at or just below the 500mb (h5) level. However, the cold down here is very anomalous, as such, the best snow growth region will be shunted to the 700mb (h7) level for this storm. So for this storm when a forecaster is looking at h5 and sees very low relative humidity (RH), they are seeing low moisture and thus low snow growth potential. However, h7 is full of RH and in this case, this is where we should be looking for snow growth (commonly known as DGZ - Dendrite Growth Zone). As such, while h5 might look like a dry slot or poor snow growth, this forecast should rely on h7 which looks great.

Basically snow grows in a column of air that is roughly -18C to -11C. You need a saturated parcel of air within this temperature range to achieve snow growth. 500mb is a changing height above ground level. Colder air the height is lower, warmer air it’s higher. The maps spit out relative humidity for these mb levels (500,700,850,925). Right now our snow growth will happen mainly below 600mb based on sounding data which is unusual for our area. Normally that growth can start at 500mb. But since the air is so dense and cold that growth area starts lower. https://www.weatherhawks.com/snow-dynamics/ this is an article that I think helps describe snow growth pretty good as well if im still not making much sense haha.

Reading the room, I'm just guessing there isnt much interest in analysis about the feature that's fucking things up in the upper levels to make it not snow again. But thanks!

Your forecast overall seems about right. Hopefully we can go on the upper end or a little higher. TW

I talked to Copilot about this...basically...the snow growth happens more in the 700 MB zone rather than the 500 MB zone. So just because the 500 MB zone is dry doesn't mean snow doesn't form due to "dryness" since the 700 MB zone (lower) is wetter.