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Last Friday some runs showed us hitting 70 for today.

Also it was supposed to be 60-62 today the high here was 37 can’t get this right 5 hours out, but honestly it gives me hope because once again it stayed way colder.

Packers have me a broken man. I need snow to lift me up.

The AI GFS has wave one and two. Cooperative 540s. BN 850s. But temps in the mid to upper 30s even with precip falling and crashing 850s.

Wonder if it’s almost a case of too much of a good thing at h5 with the bombing out. Maybe with such an intense depression in the atmosphere it encourages surface cyclogensis to progress through its stages too rapidly. Subsequently it’s too late to actually develop a good moisture fetch as the moist air transport is cut by the occlusion. Though honestly I have no clue. Only other thing that I think lends credence to my theory is that the upper levels are so dominant it forces cyclogenesis over the middle of NC instead of the normal coastal temp gradient. Dunno how we actually improve this situation though (as in what to watch for)

Yes. To take one specific but telling example, it continues to be an exceptionally bad winter here in Colorado. We are currently on the precipice of the worst statewide snowpack in recorded history and will likely be breaking that record within a week or so, given the dry forecast. The percentage of the country that has received decent snowfall this winter so far, as far as geographic areas goes, is small. Despite much hype about this winter’s prospects from some sources, the fact is that it has been pretty remarkably lacking in snow for the overwhelming majority of the United States.

It did over to our east toward York, and that's the site I used.

Welcome to Jupiter!

I don't care about the rain in the winter, I'm just giving an example how lack of precip has been a problem in the current weather regime.

Radar estimates show like .75” there. I hit .8” here so not sure about that. Never showed 1”+ here either was like .5-.75” expected.

Gb meltdown.. goodbye lafleur

Greatest thing I’ve ever seen https://x.com/theponiexpress/status/2010183468161106003?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

always has to be something

Yeah it did not underperform in my area. Probably the wettest day since October.

1.00” in Havre de Grace

Idk but seems to me like on the runs the 1st one is stronger the 2nd one doesn’t work on the GFS.

Well the good news is i got almost an inch, sucks for you.

If that's the case, I suppose it makes sense. Looking at the GFS at 12z vs the UKMET at 00z, the GFS takes the low much further south and it really gets strong down in the deep south. The UKMET ends up with a good h5 passage, but it primarily strengthens further north. Not really making as much noise in the south. Never accesses the GoM as much.

I think that this is very much on the right track. If you look at the 10m wind field, the expected intense circulation on the east side of the storm just isn't there. The 850 wind field looks like garbage too.

Moisture has been a problem for years with this -PDO and/or Niña. Heck, the 1"+ rain that was supposed to fall today ended up at only .38" at York Airport.

Yea how Many storms that formed so close to us destroyed us. We need more dig and more time

Well ukmet is usual dry model anyway

Yes by quite a bit. I guess that's all we can ask for right now.

Just to emphasize the big shift from 12z. Also see the deemphasis of the other lows.