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Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential
KeenerWx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Yanked some stats for Kankakee County because they have done especially incredible compared to climo this November. While I don’t live there, I can geek out about random stats. Now, consider that this data comes from COOP reports. It’s justified to question some data especially as we reach further back. But it’s what we’ve got. Pulled 1925-2025 from reporting locations nearest to Kankakee. Top 5 Snowfall: Month of November Some locations in Eastern Kankakee County have already notched 2025 as #1 or will soon do so. The rest of the county will likely place at #2, with real possibility of taking #1 if things break right. 1951 - 12.3” 1959 - 9.8” 1932 - 7.2” 1950 - 7.0” 2017 - 6.3” Gamma distribution would suggest roughly along the following periods for each breaking point in total November snowfall: 8” - 1 in 35 years 12” - 1 in 75 years 16” - 1 in 150 years 20” - 1 in 300+ years Needless to say, the upcoming snowstorm will likely push the county into historic+ proportions for the month of November. Especially the eastern portions of the county where the highest breaking points are achievable. Top 5 Snowstorms: Month of November Here again areas in eastern parts of the county already notched a likely #1. The rest of the county can put these on watch to surpass. November 6-7, 1951 - 9.0” November 12-14, 1959 - 8.0” November 15-16, 1932 - 7.2” November 29, 1942 - 6.0” November 21-22, 2015 - 6.3” Finally, it looks nearly certain that the county will grab two 4”+ events in the month of November, which hasn’t ever happened from what I grabbed. Soliloquy over. Carry on. -
43.7 for a high which is lowest of season
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Didn't see this thread until almost a year later, but I gave you a follow.
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Some flurries floating around. 35°.
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I look forward to the 5 page Jspin novel of the crystalline structure of the snowflakes along with the conditions at each 100’ of vertical at Smuggs. Nothing better.
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
powderfreak replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
I couldn’t resist . It was either that or post something about how that run is suppressed. I’ll go back to watching from a distance and come back on Sunday when it starts to unravel again. -
E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion
JTA66 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
I like to wait until I’m shoveling before I do my snow dance Happy Thanksgiving! -
I wouldn’t read too much into the 6th because I’ve noticed that the gfs (and other models) sometimes “copy” what the preceding system did before its details are even fully resolved.
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Light snow most of the day but DAB-. Roads are clear. Still a festive-looking day that felt more like Christmas than Thanksgiving.
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Gfs pretty much a Corbin copy for the 6th storm as the 18z result for Tuesday. Bleh
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
wokeupthisam replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
This. Just a pixel in a tapestry, this far out only looking at trends toward a consensus, if one even ever emerges before Monday lol -
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still a long way to go with this - flip flopping at this range is not unusual and 18Z runs are not as reliable as 0Z and 12Z some data could be missing that was included in 12Z who knows !
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I know how this ends, Somewhere in Stowe village someone is sitting back smiling in a reindeer sweater.
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What time does the 18z run now?
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
powderfreak replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Meh, need more amp than that. -
I'd rather have the Euro on our side at this range.
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Damage In Tolland replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
I don’t think it’s right with the Aifs, EPS all a nice interior hit but this op run rains to Nordiques -
Would be. Better a month from now. But fits the 2022-2025 analogs.
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
TauntonBlizzard2013 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
GEFS still mostly less amped than the OP. But definitely a little more tucked -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
HoarfrostHubb replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Meh. A possible solution. -
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
That’s not rain to Maine though. It’s 2 crush jobs for CNE and extreme northern SNE. Close enough for a toaster. -
that was hilarious. 3 feet for MHT 10 inches for Lawrence.
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happy thanksgiving from off the coast of America where my snow weenie spouse is tracking the snow chances for next week, lol.
