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It does look a bit more active starting end of next week at least. And alternating periods of warmer and cooler but likely AN as a whole through mid Novie.

Is there some sort of new skill style on grass?

Ski Ward in Shrewsbury became the first ski area in North America to open for skiing last weekend. might be their best conditions of the season

Red sky this morning.

The 75° at JFK was the 3rd warmest for October 30th. Data for October 30 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1961-10-30 79 54 0.10 0.0 0 1950-10-30 77 55 M M M 2026-10-30 75 52 0.00 M M 2024-10-30 73 56 0.00 0.0 0 2016-10-30 73 56 0.15 0.0 0 1971-10-30 72 52 0.00 0.0 0 1994-10-30 70 51 0.00 0.0 0

https://www.weather.gov/lot/halloween_climate

Same here.

No freeze yet or in sight here in the lowlands. Grass is green, flowers are thriving. I wonder if I see a freeze before I leave the tropics on Dec 1.

35 degrees this morning.

At this point all we are discussing are potential futures. The antecedent CONUS May through October warmth and the intensity of the ENSO SST warming has been the highest on record for a developing super El Niño. So should this continue through the winter, it raises the potential for a warmer outcome averaged out through DJF than 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024. There also could be monthly variability in terms of the where the warmest departures and strongest 500 mb ridging become established which deviate in ways from those years. So month to month comparisons may vary from those years with the sum total of the DJF average 90 day warmth exceeding those years. We probably won’t know for sure the specific details outcome for each individual month until those months are underway. Also note that the seasonal forecast models from a month or more out significantly missed the magnitude of the warmth. Even forecasts issued during the first week of the month were often too cool. So we may continue to see the models play catch up on the warmth the closer in time we get to the forecast period.

Quick mild down and then low 70s again Monday. We Mowvember. Ski areas with visions of 15-16 dancing in their heads.

It’s all BS. Don’t expect much here.

No but regardless what happens in the north, many of these videos are predicting doomsday snow and ice events in the deep south. Just seems a little over the top to me. There are a few really cool click bait screen grabs though of the polar vortex swirling northeast of and over the Canadian maritimes lol

November DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.2 +2.5 +2.7 +3.1 +1.0 +1.2 +2.0 +1.5 +2.0

Always like that in October.

This can't be a serious post. It is not even winter yet and we never even had an El Nino this strong so we dont know the winter impacts.

Models coming out earlier. Great sign.