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NDJ 25-26 RONI: -1.0 January 2026 PDO: -1.19 (73rd straight negative month)

There's no question that the PNA+ regime is ending. The ECMWF weeklies keep the PNA negative through the duration of their forecast period.

There’s a very sharp trough associated with this clipper that looks like it will pass through early Saturday morning. Might be the arctic front? Guidance has snow associated with it upstream of us, very squally looking. But the mountains mostly kill it. 6z hrrr is the first run I’ve seen that gets some into the metro area. That may be worth watching.

Thing is we have had several below average months in a row. At some point, it's got to regress to the mean. If I were betting on this, seasonal mid-February, warm March, and torch April is the way to go. Just look at 2015. The bottom fell out of the thermometer in February, March was below average (mostly due to the first week), but things turned warmer in April, and May was near record warm.

Still looking like the coldest temps/winds will be west of CRV; still cold here.

The mid week one is the event next week

Snowing in Hickory! Dusting to a quarter inch on the deck right now.

GFS still has it and a solid event at that

Well glad there are some possibilities, but we are slowly and steadily moving to the time of year when I prefer big storms to smaller pack builders. But we’ll see. in the end It doesn’t really matter compared to everything else in my life that has my attention, and of course we have no control over it anyhow

Snow covered ground and still falling lol

Snowy western North Carolina

AI never liked that timeframe but it’s also clown range. That’s why I mentioned a range of solutions. Some still like something smaller for the 11-12th too.

Snow flying in western North Carolina

Looked at euro AI, WPC before I looked here. prospects have worsened I think.

Unless you like rain and cutters.

Saturday looks great if you like cold and wind. Very tight pressure gradient develops late Friday night through Saturday between a rapidly deepening area of low pressure over the western Atlantic and strong high pressure over the western Great Lakes. Expect a sudden onset of strong winds after 06Z Sat that moves rapidly from west to east. Model soundings indicate mixing to around 925 mb on Saturday with all guidance, except the Canadian, indicating winds of 40-45 kt in that layer. The 00Z ECMWF continues to have the strongest 925 mb winds with values up to 50 kt. Even below that layer, winds around 950 mb or 0.5 km AGL are between 40-45 kt indicating a high confidence of a solid Wind Advisory event almost everywhere, except down by Albemarle and Nelson Counties. The high elevations will definitely need a High Wind Watch. Believe there is also a decent shot that winds at lower elevations could peak around 50 kt for a short period of time Saturday morning, mainly between 09Z and 15Z where 925 mb low- level jet is passing over northern VA. Extreme Cold Watches have been issued for the Allegheny Mountains with additional Cold Weather Advisories likely needed for the northern half of the fcst area.

Ha..I see by the post count Euro didn't offer up an encore from 12z.

6z GFS is nice

-3° this morning Tomorrow’s clipper doesn’t look to bring me much snow. Johnstown looks to be in a pretty good spot.

Storm after the storm potential on the EPS with energy ejecting east from the southwest and the look up top on the Atlantic side remaining largely intact.

Not much agreement next weekend. From rain to whiffs.

Schools (Rutherford) just called a two hour delay. lol Could have done this yesterday. I had a bus driver cranking at 5:05am. LOL