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@TriPol why didn't you open the thread? Can't you just open up a new thread and delete the old one that Rjay opened up ?

Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree.

I’m gonna enjoy Friday’s 4-8 and leave it at that

So much for the myth that the AI models don't make big moves inside 5 days, lol. The cave to the Euro is nearly complete now.

There's always next winter. I just hope the PDO turns positive, more so than an el nino.

There's always next year.

Salt washer

Thanks boo. Have a great day

Cad redux

Maybe that will sink south too lol.

In case anyone is interested in my summary posted elsewhere, here you go. Well, Dr. No, the King, looks like he might be back, as most of the global models tonight at 0Z caved to the Euro depiction over the last several runs of a much more progressive, flatter storm much further to our SE. So, the chances of a major snowstorm have gone down substantially, but not to zero, and the chances of even a minor to moderate storm have gone down significantly. The AI models, which have done quite well in the 4-6 day range this winter, still show a moderate to significant storm (with only one model the AIGFS still showing a major snowstorm)., while all of the physics-based models show either no snow or only a few inches. The cries you heard last night were from all the snow lovers around the world, lol. Below is a summary of the 12Z to 0Z changes... The ICON went from a 12-18" monster for all to nada for everyone (1-2" for AC to Cape May). That's nuts. The GFS went from 6-12+" for everyone at 12Z to 2-5" for most at 0Z CMC went from an 18-24" monster for everyone at 12Z to <1" for everyone at 0Z. Also nuts. The UK went from 8-14" for everyone at 12Z to ~1" along 95 and a few inches for the coast at 0Z. More nuts. The Euro had little to no snow for everyone at both 12Z and 0Z. Dr. No. The AIGFS went from 12-18" for everyone at 12Z to 6-12" for everyone (the high end at the coast) at 0Z. The Euro-AIFS went from 6-12" for everyone at 12Z to 2-3" for 95/3-5" coast at 0Z. The Weathernext 2 went from 8-14" for everyone at 12Z to 2-3" for 95/3-5" coast at 0Z.

It seemed to me that the southern stream system, which was hanging back in the decent outcomes, shot east and then there wasn't enough left for the northern stream vort to ignite. Which, if correct, there's still a slim shot if the southern energy moves east quicker, preferably leaving something behind. All speculation by me, of course.

I knew when there was only 30 posts since I knocked out it was going to be shit

Now comes the 10 pages and 500 posts wishing it back. I love this

The vort max interactions are just a bit too discombobulated, and phase a little too late thus offshore low development. GFS is the still the closest to a good outcome among the deterministic guidance, and nothing is etched in stone at this juncture.

Friday looks like shit down here

It feels like curtains on the winter. With the sun angle increasing, it's only going to get tougher to get the cold air necessary for a snowstorm.

Can't believe the blizzard at the end of the Gfs run got no mention. It was even loading up at the end of the Euro run....NO, NO, don't shoot!!! Lol

I usually agree, but this H5 look is a mess.

The extended hasn’t changed. It’s just too bad we couldn’t cash in. Just hope for Friday night.

think Friday is ok. Especially there.

I can’t believe this entire period is failing

Can’t buy a good coastal WTF

Friday will also probably go to crap..