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Yup.

Yea, I think the JMA is too cold, too. ...they both have the El Niño with a hard shift towards Modoki. I think the EURO is more reasonable with a basin-wide shift.

As mentioned before, the MDR conditions are among the worst they can be or we've seen in a long time. That kind of dry air wrapping that far S this time of year? It goes S to 5 deg N lat. Ugh. And you have this large upper-level low at 250 over Cuba that goes nowhere fast in the next week. Looking at the 500 vorticity on the ECMWF, the Dolly's vort gets to the nrn Lesser Anilities, and then gets sheard apart and nothing left to head W. On the GFS, it keeps the vort stronger, but still shears it apart near PR, and part of it does head W, but I am not sure you can call this the remains of Dolly by this point b/c it would have undergone so much shearing and misconfiguration. If something does indeed develop, it probably should be called separate TC. When the sfc and mid-level circulation cannot be track coherently, that should make it a new TC if it redevelops. Sure, there are dregs of the former system, but I find that a stretch esp. w/ so much elapsed time. In Dolly's case if something redevelops. it will be likely at least a week from that, and it may interact w/ another feature sfc or aloft during this time, distancing it from it former self.

its 15 days out but still wild to look at if its true,that ridge has been there most of the summer off southeast Japan,it hasnt allowed any typhoons to go other than in East China,youd like to see this get displaced ,broke down or something,everytime its been showing this it builds back up im a couple days

"nature is healing!"

maybe DQ doesn't make it through the season lol

90F again at DCA. We could be looking at close to 60 90+ days before all is said and done. Not the record but that's up there.

Yeah, direct impacts with the eyewall but no landfall.

62/59 at DCL. Lovely for the fire pit!

I feel like we may need to start saying that about our kicker... lol C'mon EDC don't be stubborn. Bring in the competition! Literally the only major concern...

What? No Roni def is a realstic gague thats the reason noaa uses it lol

Southern Lancaster County is the new tornado alley. And Mt Joy is the new Amazon rain forest. A diverse climate in one county!

We had a -PDO back into 1972 into the June,and in August was one of the strongest solar storms on record.The CME reached earth in 14+ hours,that must have been one impressive storm to blow sea mines in the VietNam War,if that is true,but that must have been a quite an impressive light show either way

September DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.0

King playing central park in Sept

Screw the Pacific. Technically it didn’t make landfall either.

2026. (Lala)

As many other respected ENSO folks on here have said, we need to wait until we get deeper into autumn to see if and how this El Nino would couple with the atmosphere. Some early signs suggest this has already starter, brand it would be great to see this thing lead to a wet autumn. A couple decent regionwide shakers would end this persistent drought.

GDM with a Gulf signal. Need to dig a little deeper on it though. Just been so busy.