All Activity

I am not sure the plane got dead center of the hurricane. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA_dropsondes.png

Center sonde has a 954mb reading with 6kt wind so despite the satellite appearance, it hasn’t translated into strength in a substantial way yet. Obviously still need to see the SW and NE quadrants.

Given the broader core and limited time over water, I would bet against Melissa re-attaining Cat 5 status. Perhaps flight level winds will begin to resemble that intensity again, but it is highly unlikely those winds would get down to the surface in time. If Melissa had another 18 hours or so before landfall it’s a different story.

11:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 Location: 19.3°N 76.6°W Moving: NE at 9 mph Min pressure: 950 mb Max sustained: 130 mph

probably only a high 4, but she’s relentless. Anything is possible.

Not impossible given the dropsonde just before landfall, but there’s going to be an extensive review of all the data and observations to determine the final intensity of this one. This may very well be the strongest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history.

If fhose really intense pink colored convection can wrap completely wrap around the center, will we see it reach cat 5 status again before it hits Cuba? Or will it only make it to Cat 3-4?

Yes, they have clearance.

I think in the past recon was given the go fly over their airspace or maybe I’m wrong?

How far can we go until we reach restricted Cuban airspace?

To quote monte python, hitting Jamaica “tis but a flesh wound” to Melissa

Recon is going in on a SE to NW pass

Crazy lightning in the storm again, surrounding the reforming eye.

"I'll show you hollowed out, jerk!!!* -Melissa, probably.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240 Guantanamo radar confirms satellite: small eye with violent eyewall reforming. This is bombing out

Don't know how true it is but a few pro mets on Facebook reported on their Facebook news page that NHC hurricane hunters had recorded a 252 mph wind gust near Jamaica .. seem a bit unrealistic but. Not impossible I guess

How this managed to keep a tight inner core after spending 5+ hours over the mountains with seemingly zero time to reorganize is beyond me. I’m at a loss. If it had been moving quickly over Jamaica, sure. But this thing crawled. And exploded the second it hit water. Looks high end-ish on satellite again. Doubt it goes back to a 5 but at this point I can’t deny the possibility

I wake up at 8:30 am…no thanks

Hmm. Hard to say but I do know where in live in eastern Baltimore county alot of the leaves have already fallen so a good storm may speed up the process... In my opinion

Back to back Cat 5s!

Going nuclear… again. Land apparently only inhibitor to Melissa

Yeah I agree!! We have one of the best running teams yet we seem to throw more this year!!. Makes no sense to me

I've already had the wood stove going 5 times this month including tonight. Basically 5-8 hour burns to keep the furnace use minimal and the house comfy at night.

Flip side it's light out when I have to wake up for work.