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Is this transferable across space and time? If so I'll drive you to Wisp this weekend for $3k

Sref is a JV ensemble. This thing is gonna jackpot DC and Baltimore

No graupel here, but temps dropped pretty fast. Forecast low was 30 already down to 27.1.

Latest HRRR beefed up totals everywhere. Good start to the 0z suite.

Here is the 18z (for snow by 20z Sunday) -

hmmm...sounds like there might be some other issues that need to be addressed.....

Picked up .7" snowfall last evening in persistent and at times heavy snow squalls. Visibility on Route 80 at the height of things was horrendous with moderate to heavy snow at times and a gusty wind. The salt water spray being kicked up onto the windshield was no help either. The .7" last evening boosts my seasonal total to 2.3". On a nickle and dime ride to 3". Lots of brine being sprayed today. As early as 9am on Route 10 out this way. Just don't see how it helps to spray this stuff 36 hours before an event is scheduled to begin. Wouldn't it be worn out by all the traffic over 36 hours?? I don't know, just asking.

So is the RRFS the same thing/the replacement for HRRR? And they’re running them both currently?

Hrrr

Yup I called it last week. These systems aren't digging but are sweeping. Good for yall though. Has a nice wintery feel. Got a lot more winter to go.

That was excellent Ryan. Very interesting and reasonable. A breath of fresh air from the constant hyperbole from most of the others. Can’t wait to watch one when something major threatens. Thanks and keep up the good work.

Stay safe

I wonder why the 18z and 6z gfs always only show a favorable for cold pattern way out in lala land but 12z 0z usually don't. I know the off runs are partially initialized compared to the 12z 0z. Still intrigued in the less negative pdo

Weatherbell is more generous - 3” down to DC. Really juiced up.

Frosty Boners sounds like a fantastic Christmas album. .

0z hrrr

yes. get your cameras ready. it may be the only snow of the season; if you celebrate holidays and have decorations, it is a rare chance to get great seasonal photos; make a card.

Long range HRRR starting to look like other guidance now at 00z, it’s been the most paltry.

Just saw these

Weed tonight now?

What time did it hit? Explains all the snow in Kearny.

Latest Sref mean...it's creeping north.

Wait I missed this. Snow tomorrow too now?

I think the NWS tends to lean NBM - latest run has Morgantown with a 44% chance of 8" or more. 76% chance of 6" or more. Pretty decent odds. I'm sure the typical places with orographic lift will jackpot. AGC has a 46% chance of 6" or more for the same run. Almost a coin flip. Blend mean is 4.1" total but it seems to favor an amount between 4-7" for AGC. That's definitely bullish, as even the unreliable but typically juiced SREF mean is lower, but I'm not sure what ratio that plot measures.

In this pattern we take this and run. It’s still overall hostile for any kind of significant snow.