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Me too. Would rather take a train of small and medium sized events over one "big dog" that just blows the blocking apart in under a week. Snow on snow is always fun!

I think Lee Goldberg's is my favorite map so far, so I'll post it as my forecast, lol. I like that it's a little bit more aggressive than the NWS, which is now probably the low end of the predictions, but it's also below several others who have large 6-10"+ swaths which I think are too high. Lastly, time for my usual guess: I'll go with 6.1" vs. my NWS point and click of 5.7" and our advisory of only 3-5", which ought to be at least 3-6" for Middlesex County since there's a small 6"+ swath right near me in NE Middlesex Co.

High of 75 after a low of 38.

Brooklyn almost always goes to mix at the tail end of a storm when precip lightens. It has to be absolutely perfect for it not to happen. Southern most point along an Ocean and Bay in an UHI. Just geography and science at work.

I have had too much adult eggnog and think I'm seeing double weenies! Didn't esspect to see this good a trend after the Christmas celebration

Whoever runs the current MU weather account definite has a "sunny and 75" bias. Eric Horst was good at keeping the social media accounts neutral during his time.

That was something I had not thought about or knew about. Interesting. Not really used to snows coming in at this trajectory but in my mind I was considering similar in precipitation shield to a SWFE. Meaning, it's a rare chance to be in a good zone of lift and decent precipitation here.

I don't know. Tough to eyeball, especially with the different color schemes and the 2025 data not necessarily being maxT. Looks like California was several degrees warmer this year, so that would add to the population weighting, but the Ohio Valley and parts of the midwest were cooler. Certainly closer than an aerially-weighted comparison.

Probably eyeing that warm nose as the low rushes into north Pa and Upstate New York. Would be all frozen precip for almost all of us, but a lot more sleet than it’s been showing

Too bad this snow (or sleet?) won’t last for long. Should melt within a few days, similar to the last one we had 2 weeks ago here

CTP has no changes & just reissued this in the last hour… Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 951 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-261800- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.251226T1700Z-251227T1200Z/ Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin- Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Williamsport, Mifflintown, Pottsville, Lock Haven, Newport, York, Danville, Lebanon, State College, Altoona, Emporium, Berwick, Coudersport, Philipsburg, Wellsboro, Huntingdon, Chambersburg, Lewisburg, Mansfield, Carlisle, Lancaster, Lewistown, Shamokin, Sunbury, Hershey, Bloomsburg, Gettysburg, Mount Union, Bedford, Trout Run, Laporte, Harrisburg, Renovo, Selinsgrove, and McConnellsburg 951 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Most of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Much of the precipitation could fall as sleet. Sleet and freezing rain can both be dangerous, especially on bridges and sidewalks. They can also weigh down tree limbs and power lines. Power outages are possible.

Lol, with temps in the 20s & at least .3 of precipitation on the way…? Maybe it will be 80 tomorrow & we can jump in a swimming pool too?

IMO I don’t think so.

ICON bumps north a bit - not a huge jump but noticeable

To flurries and sprinkles.

Does white mean it’s off the chart higher than 24”?

Change to what?

Those are some hellacious snowfall rates just after 0z on the RGEM. Looks like 2"+ per hour for an hour or two. That would cause some serious problems on the roadways for holiday travelers.

Company has gone, dishwasher is running and fireplace is still going. Just getting caught up. Nothing over the last 6-8 hours has led me to change my forecast for my area. Still going 3-6". The 3" covers if NAM has a clue and we get mixing out here and the 6" covers .50" liquid at a little over a 10:1 ratio. Feel confident in .40" - .60"qpf. do with those numbers as you wish. Don't see widespread over 6" amounts with the possible exception of the extreme northern fringes of this forum, even there 6" with a few isolated 7 or 8" amounts would be the upper limit, I think. We'll see how it goes. Good luck to all.

This has likely been the greatest Christmas of my entire life so far, on so many levels. Merry Christmas to all and to all a very good night!

Clear. Breezy. 20.9F

Not worried, just discussing weather. I have no control over what happens, just have lived here long enough to know how this usually goes. I'm rooting for us harder than you can imagine, it's normal to be a bit pessimistic given overall trends.

Welcome to the Mid Atlantic....

The 0z HRRR and NAM had pretty well defined 700mb lows NORTH of Lake Ontario. They keep the circulation alive almost to Ottawa. That's why they push sleet past Binghamton and briefly to Monticello, NY. The GFS has a weaker 700mb low that dissipates more quickly. Hence warm air near 700mb doesn't surge as far northeast, keeping the mixing line much further southwest. We can't know for sure what will happen, but the NAM has a track record with mid-level lows.

Why are you worried?