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Hopefully at least a +3C ONI this winter. I love me some perfect storm track rainy coastals in Jan.

May 13 1872: A hailstorm hits Sibley County. Hail up to the size of pigeon eggs is reported. Lightning burns down a barn near Sibley, killing a horse tied up inside. For Wednesday, May 13, 2026 1930 - A man was killed when caught in an open field during a hailstorm northwest of Lubbock TX. It was the first, and perhaps the only, authentic death by hail in U.S. weather records. (David Ludlum) 1981 - A tornado 450 yards in width destroyed ninety percent of Emberson TX. People did not see a tornado, but rather a wall of debris. Homes were leveled, a man in a bathtub was hurled a quarter of a mile, and a 1500 pound recreational vehicle was hurled 500 yards. Miraculously no deaths occurred in the tornado. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front brought an end to the early season warm spell in the north central U.S., but not before the temperature at Sioux City IA soared to a record warm 95 degrees. Strong southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front gusted to 52 mph at Marais MI. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Rockford MN, and wind gusts to 75 mph at Belmond IA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Strong winds along a cold front ushering cold air into the northwestern U.S. gusted to 69 mph at Myton UT. Temperatures warmed into the 80s ahead of the cold front, as far north as Montana. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region during the afternoon and night. A thunderstorm at Killeen TX produced wind gusts to 95 mph damaging 200 helicopters at Fort Hood causing nearly 500 million dollars damage. Another thunderstorm produced softball size hail at Hodges TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front spawned ten tornadoes from eastern Wyoming to northern Kansas, including seven in western Nebraska. Thunderstorms forming ahead of a cold front in the eastern U.S. spawned five tornadoes from northeastern North Carolina to southern Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms over southeast Louisiana deluged the New Orleans area with four to eight inches of rain between 7 AM and Noon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Problem is that it only blows until summer, then we wish/beg for the wind to blow to stir the 95/80 air but we get nada. Well, except in the rare thunderstorm. I've been in MO, KS, IL, SD, TX in all seasons (family and friends) and at least in my area we solidly compete with 'the windy places' until deep summer.

Wow-- even denser than usual! My thesaurus just spontaneously ignited.

This is true - but I also just hate the wind. An occasional light breeze to fight a sweltering summer day... cool, I guess. 10-15mph all day as I try to bike to work... annoying.

I think we still need the NAM. Time to start a petition

Not much outside of the Great Lakes this spring. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which=cd&csector=conus&var=precip&w=rank&p=day&year=2026&month=4&sdate=2026%2F03%2F01&edate=2026%2F05%2F13&cmap=RdYlBu&cmap_r=on&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

maybe this Christmas we'll be ripping severe weather but if we're swallowed by the Walker cell we may not even get any fronts

whole country is a scam

Agreed. Windy when the air temp is 70-75 and above, with sun = yes please

This is just the pre-Christmas forecast.

People in here who complain that "it's too windy here" haven't lived in actually windy places. 10-15 mph is perfect in the summer.

JMA has the current velocity potential and an archive with 5 day to 3 month means. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html

not going to be much south of NYC

Yeah...I guess what I was in part dancing around is whether or not we should expect general product outages. We may go through a "bug" period where modeling gets black out times. Prooobably why they chose August? Since that is the most quiescent time of the year, if you're going to do a huge disruptive product overhaul, down to the software level - which I also don't have a lot of faith is likely to be properly hardship-estimated ... - that makes sense to do it during dog-day doldrums. I've been in several different software capacities over the last 25 years ... I can tell you... when the issue is code-base level, the time estimates are almost always between 2 and 5 times longer in reality then is planned. Any other software engineers in here will know what I am talking about.

may get relatively steined here. Looks like outer Cape has a better shot, and models locking in on DE Maine/NE Mass

This is a great point - you would have to figure it is going to take some time for vendors to make the necessary changes and adjustments needed and I would have to imagine this is not going to be an easy task and this is going to require a ton of OT hours. Now, it's also possible many vendors have already been preparing for this as this has been known for a while but I guess the question is how much work could have been completed in preparation for this?

If modeling is correct certainly no long lasting warmth through June at least

You know it just occurred to me... Think how much work is going to have to go into the Internet technology bases, pan-systemically, for this up-coming August change. All industry reliance - star there and start thinking about 'turning off' all these guidance' I wonder... hm. One way to do it is to leave the other product suite ( old ) as is, while giving a time and chance for the source provider-ship to catch up. Running in parallel might be expensive, but provided a chance for deep, deep product integration to be root-canalled. NAM/MOS web-pages, ... crip filing and FTP automations... Companies that may rely on those automations... hard to know where to begin. Graphics engines? my god. massive, massive overhaul in the wholesale industry. The other way to handle ( if smart ) is to induct Claude or Gemini CODEX AI ...like real fast, and start drafting up whole new web architectures - like head start it. Expedience being the objective. Because in tech parlance, August is in ten minutes from May. When the existing took the last 20+ years of human engineering to create all that product suite and deeply rooted sourcing, and product reliances ..et al - yikes. The whole system can't really just be stopped on a dime because NOAA clicks a mouse to fire up these new tools. I mean what am I missing... ? As an afterthought, you wonder if the vendors may have already been working background with NCEP - perhaps developing against a beta system...

I’m going to miss having a model that could reliably sniff out thermals and CAD. I’ll never forget the coup it scored during the Jan 2025 storm when every model said I’d get several inches and the NAM said enjoy your sleet fest. About 2 hrs in, it went to pingers and never looked back.

Wouldn't be surprised to see some small hailers tomorrow

What’s the over/under for qpf? This seems like a less than ideal setup. It doesn’t even feel humid out rn.

ALWAYS

So our wet Wednesday has morphed into a decaying line of showers zipping through overnight. Just make you appreciate we got anything frozen at all this past winter. 66F

So, we are doing that skipped spring thing then, that sucks.