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Good look, esp. NOP

The GEFS doesn’t agree: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122012&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Ukie came south too

Some of the guidance has a little period of snow on Monday. Could be some high ratio stuff.

Quick, somebody get the "Summer Wheeze" to put him out of his misery already.

NBM looks decent considering time range.

I flew out of DEN early this morning expecting a rough go. It was smoother than usual.

I speak only for myself, but you can kindly escort yourself out of the forum for posting that...

RRFS was by far the best model for the last storm

Maybe in western PA, cool air has a good chance of holding in the rest of the state east of the Alleghenies Christmas Day. GFS a bit cooler than the Euro (actually slightly below average in eastern PA), but even the Euro only has MDT getting into the low 40s or so. Even if it did bust 50 degrees the +5 to 10 departure that would make high-wise is pretty tame compared to where the real torch is centered. + Anomalies Christmas Day in the central plains are bananas, in the realm of 30-40 degrees above average. We may have a couple fairly warm days on or just after Christmas, but the -NAO blocking is likely going to keep us from being overrun with any kind of warmth like that. 12z GFS temps/anomalies

The GEFS and EPS have big disagreement 12/25-1/3! Fwiw, JMA, BOM, and CFS favor GEFS: Meanwhile, phase 8 , which helped bring strong cold Dec 3-7 and Dec 15 but won’t next week, returned on 12/17 and will likely be with us for awhile:

Yeah, he's pretty concerned.

A return to chillier weather today with highs in the mid-40's. We stay below normal through Monday with maybe some wet snow arriving toward Tuesday morning. This should turn to rain pretty quickly from SW To NE across the area. Temperatures look to be near normal for Christmas Eve Day before we rise to about 4 degrees above normal for Christmas Day. Boxing Day looks to be the warmest day of the week before we cool down as we move toward the New Year's holiday.

A return to chillier weather today with highs in the mid-40's. We stay below normal through Monday with maybe some wet snow arriving toward Tuesday morning. This should turn to rain pretty quickly from SW To NE across the area. Temperatures look to be near normal for Christmas Eve Day before we rise to about 4 degrees above normal for Christmas Day. Boxing Day looks to be the warmest day of the week before we cool down as we move toward the New Year's holiday.

Yes sir…you’ve been on this. And let’s juice it up to a solid advisory event for SNE. If we could do that…I’d be close to average December snow.

Good post man !

Subtle difference with the handling of the vortmax by the gfs xmas eve morning. It drives the dPVA a lot more south while the other models curl it up into the GOM. This is more about the inverted trough possibility and not the initial overrunning in SNE.

2250? That seems rather optimistic.

Yw !

Lock it in but I know we cannot be that lucky... 32F

I’ve liked this signal for like a week now. Trends overall continue to be good for many. Let’s bring it home.

Yeah both CMC models are pretty far north with the surface relection. I’d probably toss the gfs for now on a possible part deux unless the euro comes in south of ART.