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I am posting Weeklies maps for weeks 3-6. EPO ridge. NAO block. AN heights over Alaska. Are we watching winter hit and hold in the East? Maybe so. When you go back and look at -QBOs, you will quite regularly find some excellent winters. If this map holds, winter is just getting started. The Euro mean buries the forum. Precip is normal over E TN. There will be some talk that this is a Nino pattern. I don't think so. The core of BN temps is over the NE/MA and not SE. Don't use up all of your mental fuel with this weekend...we may have to pace ourselves this winter. January is well on track to now finishing BN or temps. Take a look at the 12z GEM-para if you have it....

Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with highs reaching or surpassing 40°. However, the mild temperatures will be shortlived. An even colder Arctic front will cross the region on Thursday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. A frigid weekend lies ahead. Snow could arrive on Sunday. A significant snowfall is possible in and around the New York City area and surrounding region, even if a transition to sleet could occur at some point during the storm. The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. There remains uncertainty and it may still be another day or two before the details can be pinned down with high confidence. The temperature will likely stay below 20° in New York City and much of the region on Saturday. The last time that happened in New York City was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +7.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.334 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.7° (3.0° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Just so you know the pivotal beta gifs are broken. The old display works better for them. I don’t see 18z in that gif

does that really mean anything either....this is days away; best we can say is there is some weather ahead. that's all. be prepared either way. it does not hurt to be prepared.

WB 18Z ICON takes a primary into northern WV, transfer is north of us and we basically get dry slotted.

Icon doesn’t even make sense. Has the primary in eastern TN and has us mixing to Maryland line. CMC has the primary in Kentucky at same time and it’s still snowing in DC.

I'm looking for an Airbnb in Oswego County for this weekend. Suddenly looks amazing up there lol

We had the same in the 1993 super storm where sleet fell but it didn’t hurt amounts plus a good front end thump before any changeover would occur.

Moving on... Anyone have thoughts on the RGEM and if trends were good or bad?

You can see early on below. That northern stream piece in Canada is right over the top and phases way to early and easy. Need that piece further east and out in front. 18z is the first image.

Early, early call if the foreign models are correct: 4-6" in Chicagoland; 6-8" across Michiana. Add an inch or two for lake-enhancement if it applies to your backyard. Obviously, the bigger the totals, the more south and east you get.

Congrats Quebec City

Sure, maybe it’s about to lead the way for the first time ever and technically it’s another piece of guidance, but no one ever even used to post this model back in the day and I have always thought it was just posted something to look at after the NAM while we wait for the GFS. I never take it seriously.

ICON took a step north i believe, or QPF is lower, hacked off about 3-4ins from the LV from 12z to 18z

no i look at icon for one specific reason 2m temps... that's the only thing that it could be useful. it is the worst model of all

The main thread is a mess... more banter there then in here.

Looking up at Canada at hr66 or so on the ICON and the NS just is way different than 12z. Have to see if that energy presentation is real at all.

What’s wrong with it?

If you look at the total QPF map on the ICON (especially if you compare runs) you can see why it's a junk model. Weird patches and holes all over the place compared to the varsity models. IDK why I'm even bothering to dissect it. On to the GOOFY

Relative to its 12z run, it was noticeably southwest The biggest change was how it handled the energy in Canada. The whole orientation of the trough north of the border changed between the 12 and 18z run ultimately, it’s that piece, more so than the southern stream itself, which will dictate how far north this comes

i don't know how, after all this time, folks can confidently talk about a foot plus of snow when we have seen multiple cases of things changing radically even the day before. this was entirely predictable. it might still be wrong. it's only wednesday ffs.

By tomorrow it will be all rain

Fat flakes graupel mix

18z ICON appears to get the sleet/snow line up the PA Turnpike. Keeps totals below 10" along the Mason-Dixon counties.

Yes if Euro AI follows suit than it'll be very concerning if you want snow! GFS flip flops the best model now is euro ai in my opinion!