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Got my live stream going fellas.I'm about to head out where I can see these storms. If I see anything good, I'll be putting up a link.

The storms are really getting underway out in western pennsylvania. Notice the lightning just slightly deviating south in the area that I noted supercell characteristics. That could be lightning displaced in the anvil, though. No shortage of cells out in western pennsylvania, starting to ark although i'm seeing a lot more cell mergers than splits. Pretty decent amount of lightning for this early in storm development.

I wouldn't trust that ... not that you are, just sayn' Just an example, recall that 77 F two or so weeks back. It looked an awful lot like this 12z Euro run when it was 10 days out, too. It turned out to be one day's worth. Granted, it was a ginormous one day.. The thing with heat in the latter mids/ext ranges, it is about the least dependable anomaly of all them when it come early lead and staying power in the guidance. I'd put the infamous D9 Euro coastal bomb ahead of a warm pattern, particularly any lasting more than just an afternoon warm sector. They just get eaten at either end. Tweak the deep layer circulation mode a little and we BD and gobble 30 hours trying to erode it out on the front side...meanwhile, CC continues to instruct a faster than normal balanced geostrophic wind velocity problem which speeds things up 24 hours by the time it gets into short range. There's 2.5 days of your warm up, gone. Maybe not exactly but it's always something around here in the spring.

LOL

I swear I’m hearing a lawn mower right now

All-time March record set in Indy at 88 today.

5.5” at home, about the same at pleasant Back to winter for a few days, photo from earlier this morning .

Plenty of warm air coming. Ensembles show strong ridging in East.

Below is how much faster the warming is just since 1960 at our local PHL Airport with their growing UHI problem. That warming slope is a wee bit different just around 25 to 35 miles west of the concrete and river warm oasis that is PHL Airport!

Some of these models especially the CFS has this for whatever reason are to amped when the Rossby Wave Train moves into the WP/MC.You dont seem to see these wind burst even pan out very well.The RMMS today seems to show this Rossby Wave further west than what they have been showing recently as some now show the MJO go back into the WP.It seems possible to me this Rossby Wave could strenghten the MJO signal into the Maritime/IO as we get into April

Oh, it sounded at the time like people were comparing dick sizes on which region was dealing with the bigger cold vs heat. I probably didn't get the gist of the conversation right - which I'm not about to scroll back and review. lol. Standard deviation would settle it among scholars

Yeah. I mean you cant take winter forecasts with more than a grain of salt in Fall, much less spring. I was just pointing out sometimes colors look worse than they are. Milder winters mean nothing in terms of total snowfall here (as long as we avoid torch). Its about storm track or lack thereof. After two cold winters in a row with good snowcover but no impressive storms locally (largest was a surprise 6.2") my early gut instinct is that next winter sees less deep winter but a bigger storm, likely the biggest in 5 years or so.

Chris simply does not see the current warming as an existential threat or anything to lose sleep over....as you know I agree with his view! This makes alarmists upset we all understand this!

Yesterday at DTW ended up hi/low 43/34 and today 55/35 with colder weather the next two days. Backdoor front ftw.

The severe warned cell just east of orvistown is showing some supercell characteristics.

Heck of a 12z euro. Big summer incoming

Yep it's called sleep inertia and can be crippling if you wake up from REM phase 3 or something

Some are likely shopping for a new computer, printer, TV, etc today. Happened to my parents last summer with an explosive nearby strike. Unplugging is a good idea when prolific lightning is expected as it removes the physical path for electromagnetic surges.

1-3” tomorrow morning ?

plus they get the power outage side of hurricanes

Yea. Also mid summer time we have fewer days interrupted by thunderstorms. They often stay to the west all day. It evens out.

I'll need to pack a track on our driveway with the car, or we don't get mail delivery. Gassed up the snowblower just in case, but unless we get 6"+ it will remain silent.

Its the trade off for more snow

You must be fun at parties