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Even if a low end warning level event verifies we will be talking about this one for a long time.

Seemed to have missed all the heavier rains this morning. Picked up .23". Combined with the .5 that fell last evening though, it's the biggest rain event here in ages. Hopefully, we add more this weekend.

I think there’s a growing possibility that the bull’s-eye that ends up being more into southern New England.

Gotta figure those winds are gonna scream with isobars like that

People have this idea I think that the quality of models is more different than they really are. Like I remember someone saying yesterday that the GFS takes multiple cycles to flush out bad initialization data. That's literally how every single modern weather model works. It's called 4dvar. It's something that would impact the Euro too

GFS was on an island and now it’s not alone but it got joined by the NAM and srefs

I found his updated NWS forecast

This could end up pretty flaccid for anybody under 1000’ elevation. Hoping for 2” here, but not holding my breath.

Yes.

Keep this in mind when looking at Mt. Holly's forecast and snowfall map. Both are only through 7 am Sunday (they only project out 72 hours) and in thier AFD they said, "Given the uncertainty, our latest forecast stuck closely to the NBM," which should mean the 01Z NBM (the AFD came out at 3 am and would've been based on the 01Z NBM) through 7 am Monday, which is the first graphic, which is fairly close to their forecast map.And if they were forecasting for the whole storm, it would've been the 01Z NBM in the 3rd graphic, which is a respectable starting point, IMO, given the still pretty high uncertainty facing them. I'd expect watches to go up at 4 pm, unless we see some unexpected significant model backtracking on snowfall. And there's plenty of room for them to bump totals up should it come to that, looking at their 10% high probability case showing 12-24" - but they also might have the biggest spread from high to low I've ever seen with their 10% low probability case being for <1" for all. Strap in folks.

Within 48 hours, can we take banter to banter? Thanks!!!!

But we could be deformed

lol zero chance of 6 today. I’ll be lucky for 1-2 I think.

This is including todays/tonight's snow right? pretty misleading for northern areas.

Another fascinating day of tracking !

Last night had some favorable developments. Although a significant or major snowstorm remains a low probability/high-impact scenario, there was a notable increase in EPS members supporting such a solution. 6" or above: 2/19 12z: 8%; 2/20 0z: 24% 10" or above: 2/19 12z: 0%; 2/20 0z: 12% Model disagreement, especially at the surface, persists. The GFS remains the most aggressive model. The NAM shows no accumulating snow in New York City. Things should start to narrow today. A good starting point might be a 3"-6"-type snowfall for New York City and its nearby suburbs with more than 6" likely in an area running from central/southern New Jersey northeastward across central and eastern Long Island. These numbers are subject to change as the situation remains dynamic.

The canadians could use some support after the gold medal game loss yesterday. lol

I had stopped watching figure skating because it seemed to be a race to landing quads. I have never seen her two programs and looked up her short program yesterday. Wow what a breath of fresh air. I did not even notice the jumps. The joy and excitement I saw, she had created one of the most fluid pieces I have seen in a long time. Her free skate was just the same. Her musicality is amazing! Proof that you have to enjoy and love what you do. I applaud Alysa for taking the path she did. Towards the end of the younger Ms J’s junior riding career she had stopped having fun. She consciously decided it was not about the ribbons but about showing how much she loved riding. She took on the training of a friend’s young horse. And made the decision to stay on her large pony and have some amazing fun with her. She also really enjoyed being on an IEA team. A format where you ride a horse by draw that you have never ridden before. Not all riders can do it as it takes your skills and knowledge to figure out a horse just by a description on a piece of paper and maybe one test fence. Those decisions ultimately helped her with the choice of schools to attend. She chose a school with a wonderful IHSA club team. Where anyone can ride you don’t have to be recruited to ride. Those who do what they love will always come out on the top of life. Alysa skated like no one was watching. I thank her for letting us in.

6z EPS is decent, with several west leaning ensemble members that could provide upside snow potential. The mean still brings 4 inches to the LSV this run.

Better than posting. Wouldn't you agree?

It's a big day. Euro/CMC/Icon and friends all need to join the GFS party. Sending my energy to the Canadian Shortwave Obedience Program. Shipshape guys. Now let's focus and get this done.

Would be one hell of way to end the season but as always, most of us are right on that line of rain /snow mix …Also, this time the roads have all warmed up… Tonight’s runs will be key…. Best case is we get more precip overnight Sunday.. being on the boarder-line usually dosnt end well around here…will see soon enough ..

or Mariano Rivera?

IMO you're on the right track. The final solution of course will be very interesting but you make some undeniable observations that will be true unless there is a total collapse of the threat.

Nice